Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, January 8, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Rockets	40%	105	113	116.5	97	100.1
	17	Heat	60%	109	120	122.4	98	95.0

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+16

-12

101

MIA

+11

-11

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.12 55.9%

MIA

1.22 61.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 30	39.2	32	67%	5	7	0	2	1	2	2	3	5-5	100%	3-8	38%	7-14	50%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 28	33.6	9	50%	4	1	2	0	0	5	3	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 21	32.8	22	65%	10	2	3	0	3	6	3	7	3-4	75%	8-13	62%	1-2	50%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 21	32.2	10	36%	6	0	0	0	1	3	3	3	3-3	100%	2-8	25%	1-5	20%
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 22	31.4	11	42%	5	6	0	0	3	3	0	5	5-6	83%	0-2	0%	2-8	25%

Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 27	22.6	8	57%	4	1	1	0	0	2	0	4	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 37	19.9	5	50%	0	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 20	17.2	11	69%	6	0	1	0	1	4	1	5	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Amen Thompson #1 · SF · 6'7" 200 · 21	11.1	5	83%	2	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Victor Oladipo #3 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 32	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar Tendon; Repair
Reggie Bullock Jr. #25 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Boban Marjanović #51 · C · 7'3" 290 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jermaine Samuels Jr. #00 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nate Hinton #14 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dillon Brooks #9 · SG · 6'7" 225 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Oblique; Strain
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	56%	42	20	8	5	12	31	12	30	25-28	89%	23-47	49%	14-41	34%

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22 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 30	39.2	32	67%	5	7	0	2	1	2	2	3	5-5	100%	3-8	38%	7-14	50%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 28	33.6	9	50%	4	1	2	0	0	5	3	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 21	32.8	22	65%	10	2	3	0	3	6	3	7	3-4	75%	8-13	62%	1-2	50%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 21	32.2	10	36%	6	0	0	0	1	3	3	3	3-3	100%	2-8	25%	1-5	20%
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 22	31.4	11	42%	5	6	0	0	3	3	0	5	5-6	83%	0-2	0%	2-8	25%

Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 27	22.6	8	57%	4	1	1	0	0	2	0	4	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 37	19.9	5	50%	0	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Cam Whitmore #7 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 20	17.2	11	69%	6	0	1	0	1	4	1	5	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Amen Thompson #1 · SF · 6'7" 200 · 21	11.1	5	83%	2	1	1	1	2	3	0	2	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Victor Oladipo #3 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 32	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar Tendon; Repair
Reggie Bullock Jr. #25 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jock Landale #2 · C · 6'11" 255 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Boban Marjanović #51 · C · 7'3" 290 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jermaine Samuels Jr. #00 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nate Hinton #14 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dillon Brooks #9 · SG · 6'7" 225 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Oblique; Strain
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Lower Leg; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	56%	42	20	8	5	12	31	12	30	25-28	89%	23-47	49%	14-41	34%

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17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	38.6	14	54%	4	4	1	0	2	1	0	4	3-4	75%	4-9	44%	1-2	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	34.4	28	70%	3	3	0	0	1	2	2	1	3-3	100%	5-10	50%	5-10	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	31.6	22	73%	12	3	1	0	3	4	1	11	4-7	57%	9-12	75%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	21.4	6	27%	8	6	2	2	2	3	3	5	1-4	25%	1-4	25%	1-5	20%
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	16.4	6	75%	3	1	0	2	1	1	1	2	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	29.5	14	54%	3	7	1	0	1	6	0	3	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	3-10	30%
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	29.1	12	86%	2	2	0	1	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	23.2	15	75%	7	4	1	0	1	2	3	4	6-7	86%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	15.8	3	75%	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Illness
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Toe; MP Joint Sprain
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	61%	45	30	6	4	11	21	10	35	23-32	72%	26-46	57%	15-36	42%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.12 55.9%

MIA

1.22 61.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

75%

MIA

67%

Midrange

HOU

35%

MIA

53%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

21.0

34%

51%

MIA

22.5

42%

63%

Free Throws

HOU

89%

MIA

72%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
F. VanVleet	32	67%	16.0 / 24
A. Sengun	22	65%	11.0 / 17
J. Green	11	42%	5.5 / 13
C. Whitmore	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Smith	10	36%	5.0 / 14
J. Tate	9	50%	4.5 / 9
A. Holiday	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Green	5	50%	2.5 / 5
A. Thompson	5	83%	2.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	28	70%	14.0 / 20
B. Adebayo	22	73%	11.0 / 15
K. Love	15	75%	7.5 / 10
J. Jaquez	14	54%	7.0 / 13
D. Robinson	14	54%	7.0 / 13
J. Richardson	12	86%	6.0 / 7
N. Jović	6	27%	3.0 / 11
K. Lowry	6	75%	3.0 / 4
H. Highsmith	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	20 113.8 21 113.3	HOU 116.5 MIA 122.4 +6.0
Pace	13 99.6 29 97.0	HOU 100.1 +5.1 MIA 95.0
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 10 14.8	HOU 14.4 −0.8 MIA 15.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	27 52.9% 20 53.8%	HOU 50.0% MIA 59.1% +9.1%
TO %	8 12.1% 9 12.2%	HOU 10.7% MIA 10.3% −0.4%
ORB %	10 25.1% 26 21.8%	HOU 25.5% +0.5% MIA 25.0%
FTrt	9 25.7 8 25.7	HOU 31.8 MIA 39.0 +7.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.4% 11 64.8%	HOU 54.1% MIA 73.2% +19.1%
STL %	9 7.8% 11 7.7%	HOU 8.2% +2.1% MIA 6.1%
BLK %	11 9.7% 30 7.7%	HOU 10.9% +2.4% MIA 8.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.2% 17 56.2%	HOU 55.9% MIA 61.2% +5.3%
Rim FG%	24 61.2% 23 61.6%	HOU 75.0% +8.3% MIA 66.7%
Mid FG%	21 41.2% 13 44.3%	HOU 35.5% MIA 52.9% +17.4%
3P %	23 35.2% 12 37.0%	HOU 34.1% MIA 41.7% +7.6%
FT %	20 77.3% 5 81.8%	HOU 89.3% +17.4% MIA 71.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	6 35.5% 29 29.5%	HOU 18.2% +3.5% MIA 14.6%
Mid Att. %	3 24.7% 28 31.1%	HOU 35.2% −6.2% MIA 41.5%
3P Att. %	13 39.7% 14 39.4%	HOU 46.6% +2.7% MIA 43.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	HOU	MIA
Possessions	97	98
Possession Minutes	23.3	24.7
Points	113	120
Rebounds	42	45
Assists	20	30
Steals	8	6
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	12 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls	31	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	10 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (2)	35 (1)
Field Goals	37-88	41-82
At-the-Rim FG	12-16	8-12
Midrange FG	11-31	18-34
2-Point FG	23-47	26-46
3-Point FG	14-41	15-36
Free Throws	25-28	23-32
Fast Break Pts	6	15
2nd Chance Pts	23	11
Points in Paint	42	48
Pts off Turnovers	8	13
Bench Points	29	44
Biggest Lead	2	15

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg