Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, January 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22 | Bulls | 119 | ||
 | 26 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 63% | 119 | 131 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 136 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Heat | 60% | 109 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Bucks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Sunday, January 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 23 | Nets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Magic | 47% | 114 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Pelicans | 133 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 114 | 108 |
 | 13 | Mavericks | 44% | 111 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Pistons | 114 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 11 | Suns | 70% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 133 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 54% | 111 | 103 |
 | 17 | Lakers | 46% | 110 | 106 |
Saturday, January 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 65% | 122 | 118 |
| 17 | Pacers | 35% | 116 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Knicks | 121 | ||
| 28 | Wizards | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 23% | 109 | 120 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 108 | ||
| 24 | Rockets | 112 | ||
Friday, January 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 15% | 107 | 97 |
| 1 | Celtics | 85% | 123 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 116 | ||
| 20 | Pacers | 150 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 59% | 114 | 115 |
| 24 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 90 | ||
| 6 | Cavaliers | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 33% | 110 | 128 |
| 2 | 76ers | 67% | 116 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 91 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 60% | 109 | 122 |
| 23 | Rockets | 40% | 105 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 111 | ||
| 14 | Pelicans | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 110 | 103 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 68% | 117 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Magic | 122 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 46% | 109 | 97 |
| 10 | Suns | 54% | 111 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 109 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 45% | 107 | 127 |
| 18 | Lakers | 55% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 130 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 135 | ||
Thursday, January 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 73% | 122 | 125 |
| 30 | Spurs | 27% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 130 | ||
| 7 | Warriors | 127 | ||
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 26% | 110 | 101 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 74% | 119 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| 21 | Pacers | 142 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 52% | 119 | 138 |
| 14 | Hawks | 48% | 118 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 100 | ||
| 9 | Knicks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 42% | 108 | 101 |
| 22 | Rockets | 58% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 116 | ||
| 13 | Grizzlies | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 32% | 104 | 117 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 68% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 97 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clippers | 53% | 112 | 131 |
| 10 | Suns | 47% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 148 | ||
| 25 | Jazz | 154 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 110 |
| 18 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 135 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 138 | ||
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 27% | 104 | 97 |
| 2 | 76ers | 73% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 16 | Grizzlies | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 39% | 110 | 85 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 61% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 123 | ||
| 6 | Thunder | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 38% | 107 | 115 |
| 8 | Warriors | 62% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 111 | ||
| 13 | Kings | 104 | ||
Monday, January 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 109 | 106 |
| 12 | Knicks | 44% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 121 | ||
| 19 | Raptors | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 26% | 106 | 113 |
| 22 | Rockets | 74% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 122 | ||
| 4 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 12% | 101 | 93 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 88% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 88 | ||
| 9 | Suns | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 60% | 120 | 90 |
| 26 | Jazz | 40% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 104 | ||
| 10 | Clippers | 121 | ||
Sunday, December 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 68% | 125 | 130 |
| 27 | Wizards | 32% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 109 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 33% | 109 | 108 |
| 5 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 134 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 51% | 113 | 123 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 49% | 112 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 107 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 112 | ||
Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
| 26 | Jazz | 42% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 48% | 120 | 126 |
| 24 | Pacers | 52% | 121 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 92 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 34% | 104 | 106 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 66% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 132 | ||
| 7 | Warriors | 122 | ||
Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 20 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 43% | 121 | 117 |
| 14 | Hawks | 57% | 123 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 118 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 47% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 131 | ||
| 23 | Rockets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 52% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 40% | 110 | 128 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 113 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 106 | ||
| 11 | Clippers | 117 | ||
Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 102 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 120 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 105 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 30% | 105 | 105 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 70% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 114 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 33% | 111 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| 13 | Lakers | 133 | ||
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 20 | Magic | 46% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 132 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 144 |
| 19 | Nets | 29% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 22 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 113 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 118 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 21 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 116 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
| 7 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 130 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 12 | Clippers | 113 | ||