Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, December 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Lakers | 40% | 110 | 109 |
 | 13 | Pelicans | 60% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Nets | 33% | 109 | 108 |
 | 6 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 85% | 121 | 134 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 40% | 109 | 107 |
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Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Raptors | 68% | 117 | 127 |
 | 28 | Pistons | 32% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Knicks | 48% | 121 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 24 | Bulls | 48% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 34% | 105 | 106 |
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 66% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Mavericks | 38% | 114 | 132 |
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Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 19 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 65% | 119 | 104 |
| 26 | Wizards | 35% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 43% | 121 | 117 |
| 9 | Hawks | 57% | 123 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 22% | 105 | 118 |
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 131 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Hornets | 14% | 106 | 119 |
| 8 | Suns | 86% | 122 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 39% | 109 | 128 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 38% | 106 | 106 |
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Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 103 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 120 |
| 20 | Bulls | 55% | 117 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 78% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 30% | 112 | 105 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 70% | 120 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 29% | 105 | 105 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 71% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 33% | 108 | 114 |
| 6 | Warriors | 67% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 32% | 111 | 118 |
| 24 | Blazers | 68% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 18% | 104 | 112 |
| 7 | Lakers | 82% | 118 | 133 |
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 53% | 110 | 112 |
| 15 | Magic | 47% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 66% | 119 | 132 |
| 27 | Wizards | 34% | 113 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 71% | 120 | 144 |
| 26 | Nets | 29% | 112 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| 17 | Rockets | 49% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 5 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 40% | 110 | 113 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 60% | 114 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 72% | 118 | 118 |
| 29 | Pistons | 28% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 64% | 117 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 53% | 115 | 113 |
| 21 | Bulls | 47% | 113 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 19 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 39% | 109 | 116 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 49% | 110 | 106 |
| 5 | Thunder | 51% | 111 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 58% | 118 | 130 |
| 28 | Spurs | 42% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 26 | Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 25% | 106 | 104 |
| 22 | Clippers | 75% | 116 | 113 |
Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 48% | 116 | 122 |
| 7 | Knicks | 52% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 36% | 111 | 114 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 64% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 113 | 126 |
| 8 | Lakers | 37% | 108 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 47% | 111 | 113 |
| 13 | Heat | 53% | 112 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
| 18 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 114 |
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 46% | 116 | 130 |
| 7 | Knicks | 54% | 117 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 18 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 79% | 118 | 102 |
| 29 | Hornets | 21% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 23 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 32% | 107 | 106 |
| 8 | Pelicans | 68% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 9 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 22% | 108 | 115 |
| 11 | Nets | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
| 15 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 43% | 104 | 109 |
| 19 | Bulls | 57% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 36% | 109 | 129 |
| 3 | Thunder | 64% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 34% | 114 | 119 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 66% | 120 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 114 | 110 |
| 12 | Kings | 42% | 111 | 98 |
Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 27% | 108 | 111 |
| 2 | 76ers | 73% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 13 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 52% | 118 | 113 |
| 18 | Heat | 48% | 117 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 20 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 17% | 112 | 118 |
| 6 | Warriors | 83% | 126 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 46% | 119 | 105 |
| 14 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |
Thursday, December 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Jazz | 48% | 115 | 119 |
| 30 | Pistons | 52% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 39% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 36% | 108 | 95 |
| 18 | Bulls | 64% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 42% | 116 | 103 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 58% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 31% | 111 | 114 |
| 6 | Bucks | 69% | 118 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 34% | 109 | 115 |
| 8 | Thunder | 66% | 115 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 29% | 103 | 111 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 71% | 111 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 118 |
| 24 | Blazers | 62% | 117 | 117 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 38% | 108 | 116 |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 62% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 28% | 115 | 113 |
| 23 | Pacers | 72% | 124 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 39% | 105 | 115 |
| 14 | Magic | 61% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 39% | 109 | 113 |
| 2 | 76ers | 61% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 51% | 113 | 121 |
| 13 | Nets | 49% | 112 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 57% | 113 | 113 |
| 18 | Raptors | 43% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 53% | 108 | 108 |
| 21 | Bulls | 47% | 107 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 134 |
| 19 | Rockets | 53% | 115 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 49% | 115 | 120 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 51% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 53% | 115 | 144 |
| 10 | Kings | 47% | 114 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 27% | 107 | 115 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 73% | 116 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 20% | 114 | 119 |
| 8 | Bucks | 80% | 126 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 57% | 112 | 126 |
| 5 | Warriors | 43% | 110 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 65% | 116 | 104 |
| 25 | Blazers | 35% | 110 | 109 |
Monday, December 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 37% | 103 | 130 |
| 16 | Cavaliers | 63% | 108 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 55% | 121 | 151 |
| 22 | Pacers | 45% | 119 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 22% | 105 | 108 |
| 2 | 76ers | 78% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 19% | 113 | 124 |
| 18 | Hawks | 81% | 126 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 111 | 112 |
| 17 | Heat | 44% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 19% | 103 | 99 |
| 19 | Raptors | 81% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 27% | 105 | 97 |
| 5 | Thunder | 73% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 35% | 113 | 104 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 65% | 118 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nets | 66% | 117 | 108 |
| 26 | Jazz | 34% | 111 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 22% | 115 | 131 |
| 12 | Kings | 78% | 126 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 52% | 111 | 114 |
| 21 | Lakers | 48% | 110 | 109 |