Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Monday, January 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 109 | 106 |
 | 12 | Knicks | 44% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Raptors | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 26% | 106 | 113 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Hornets | 12% | 101 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Mavericks | 60% | 120 | 90 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 104 | ||
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Sunday, December 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Lakers | 109 | ||
 | 17 | Pelicans | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Nets | 33% | 109 | 108 |
 | 5 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 134 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 107 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 112 | ||
Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
| 26 | Jazz | 42% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 48% | 120 | 126 |
| 24 | Pacers | 52% | 121 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 34% | 104 | 106 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 66% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 132 | ||
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Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 20 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 43% | 121 | 117 |
| 14 | Hawks | 57% | 123 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 118 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 47% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 131 | ||
| 23 | Rockets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 52% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 40% | 110 | 128 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 113 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 106 | ||
| 11 | Clippers | 117 | ||
Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 102 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 120 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 105 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 30% | 105 | 105 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 70% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 114 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 33% | 111 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| 13 | Lakers | 133 | ||
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 20 | Magic | 46% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 132 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 144 |
| 19 | Nets | 29% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 22 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 113 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 118 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 21 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 116 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
| 7 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 130 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 12 | Clippers | 113 | ||
Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 49% | 116 | 122 |
| 9 | Knicks | 51% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 126 |
| 12 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 113 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
| 10 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 114 |
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| 8 | Knicks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| 28 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 24 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 15 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
| 23 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 109 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
| 7 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 119 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 98 | ||
Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| 2 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 19 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 22 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 118 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 46% | 119 | 105 |
| 18 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |
Thursday, December 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 119 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 39% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 95 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 42% | 116 | 103 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 58% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 114 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 109 | 115 |
| 8 | Thunder | 66% | 115 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 111 | ||
| 4 | Timberwolves | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 117 | 117 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 116 | ||
| 8 | Cavaliers | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 28% | 115 | 113 |
| 24 | Pacers | 72% | 124 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 115 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 39% | 109 | 113 |
| 2 | 76ers | 61% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 121 | ||
| 18 | Nets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 58% | 112 | 113 |
| 23 | Raptors | 42% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 108 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 134 |
| 21 | Rockets | 53% | 115 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 120 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 54% | 115 | 144 |
| 14 | Kings | 46% | 113 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| 14 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 20% | 114 | 119 |
| 5 | Bucks | 80% | 126 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 126 | ||
| 8 | Warriors | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 65% | 116 | 104 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 110 | 109 |