Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, January 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Bucks | 73% | 122 | 125 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, January 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 130 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Thunder | 52% | 119 | 138 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 14 | Hawks | 48% | 118 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Bulls | 100 | ||
 | 9 | Knicks | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Nets | 42% | 108 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 116 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Pelicans | 32% | 104 | 117 |
 | 5 | Timberwolves | 68% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Mavericks | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 148 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 110 |
 | 18 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 135 | ||
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Tuesday, January 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 27% | 104 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 98 | ||
| 16 | Grizzlies | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 39% | 110 | 85 |
| 14 | Pelicans | 61% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 123 | ||
| 6 | Thunder | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 38% | 107 | 115 |
| 8 | Warriors | 62% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Hornets | 111 | ||
| 13 | Kings | 104 | ||
Monday, January 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 56% | 109 | 106 |
| 12 | Knicks | 44% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 121 | ||
| 19 | Raptors | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 26% | 106 | 113 |
| 22 | Rockets | 74% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 122 | ||
| 4 | Bucks | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 12% | 101 | 93 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 88% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 88 | ||
| 9 | Suns | 109 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 60% | 120 | 90 |
| 26 | Jazz | 40% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 104 | ||
| 10 | Clippers | 121 | ||
Sunday, December 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 68% | 125 | 130 |
| 27 | Wizards | 32% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 109 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 33% | 109 | 108 |
| 5 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 134 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 101 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 51% | 113 | 123 |
| 13 | Grizzlies | 49% | 112 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 107 | ||
| 11 | Suns | 112 | ||
Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
| 26 | Jazz | 42% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 127 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 48% | 120 | 126 |
| 24 | Pacers | 52% | 121 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 92 | ||
| 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Lakers | 34% | 104 | 106 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 66% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 132 | ||
| 7 | Warriors | 122 | ||
Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 20 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 104 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 110 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 43% | 121 | 117 |
| 14 | Hawks | 57% | 123 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 118 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 47% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 131 | ||
| 23 | Rockets | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 52% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 119 | ||
| 10 | Suns | 133 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 40% | 110 | 128 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 113 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 106 | ||
| 11 | Clippers | 117 | ||
Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 102 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 120 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 105 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 30% | 105 | 105 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 70% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 114 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 33% | 111 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| 13 | Lakers | 133 | ||
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 20 | Magic | 46% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 132 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 144 |
| 19 | Nets | 29% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 22 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 113 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 118 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 21 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 116 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
| 7 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 130 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 12 | Clippers | 113 | ||
Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 49% | 116 | 122 |
| 9 | Knicks | 51% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 126 |
| 12 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 113 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
| 10 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 114 |
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| 8 | Knicks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| 28 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 24 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 15 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
| 23 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 109 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
| 7 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 119 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 98 | ||
Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| 2 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 19 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 22 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 118 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 46% | 119 | 105 |
| 18 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |