Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, January 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Celtics | 85% | 123 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Thunder | 59% | 114 | 115 |
 | 20 | Nets | 41% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 11 | Knicks | 33% | 110 | 128 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Hornets | 27% | 102 | 91 |
 | 21 | Bulls | 73% | 111 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Timberwolves | 60% | 109 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Pelicans | 51% | 113 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Mavericks | 68% | 117 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Magic | 28% | 104 | 122 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Heat | 46% | 109 | 97 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29 | Pistons | 19% | 110 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Lakers | 55% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Raptors | 48% | 115 | 130 |
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Thursday, January 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Bucks | 73% | 122 | 125 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 47% | 112 | 130 |
| 8 | Warriors | 53% | 113 | 127 |
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 26% | 110 | 101 |
| 11 | Cavaliers | 74% | 119 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 58% | 125 | 130 |
| 21 | Pacers | 42% | 122 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 52% | 119 | 138 |
| 13 | Hawks | 48% | 118 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 42% | 108 | 101 |
| 23 | Rockets | 58% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Raptors | 51% | 111 | 116 |
| 17 | Grizzlies | 49% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pelicans | 32% | 104 | 117 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 68% | 111 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 28% | 103 | 100 |
| 9 | Knicks | 72% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 110 | 97 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 75% | 120 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Clippers | 53% | 112 | 131 |
| 19 | Suns | 47% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 31% | 113 | 148 |
| 25 | Jazz | 69% | 120 | 154 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 42% | 108 | 110 |
| 16 | Lakers | 58% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 44% | 110 | 135 |
| 18 | Kings | 56% | 112 | 138 |
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 27% | 104 | 97 |
| 2 | 76ers | 73% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 26% | 107 | 98 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 74% | 116 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 39% | 110 | 85 |
| 11 | Pelicans | 61% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 51% | 113 | 123 |
| 4 | Thunder | 49% | 112 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 38% | 107 | 115 |
| 7 | Warriors | 62% | 112 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 16% | 107 | 111 |
| 15 | Kings | 84% | 122 | 104 |
Monday, January 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 56% | 109 | 106 |
| 15 | Knicks | 44% | 107 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 48% | 110 | 121 |
| 16 | Raptors | 52% | 111 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Pistons | 26% | 106 | 113 |
| 22 | Rockets | 74% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 29% | 121 | 122 |
| 2 | Bucks | 71% | 129 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 12% | 101 | 93 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 88% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 107 | 88 |
| 21 | Suns | 68% | 114 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 60% | 120 | 90 |
| 25 | Jazz | 40% | 116 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 40% | 109 | 104 |
| 8 | Clippers | 60% | 113 | 121 |
Sunday, December 31, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hawks | 68% | 125 | 130 |
| 26 | Wizards | 32% | 118 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 40% | 109 | 109 |
| 13 | Pelicans | 60% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Nets | 33% | 109 | 108 |
| 6 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 85% | 121 | 134 |
| 29 | Spurs | 15% | 105 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 51% | 113 | 123 |
| 21 | Grizzlies | 49% | 112 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 40% | 109 | 107 |
| 9 | Suns | 60% | 112 | 112 |
Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
| 25 | Jazz | 42% | 113 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Raptors | 68% | 117 | 127 |
| 28 | Pistons | 32% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 48% | 120 | 126 |
| 23 | Pacers | 52% | 121 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 52% | 109 | 92 |
| 24 | Bulls | 48% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 34% | 104 | 106 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 66% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 38% | 113 | 132 |
| 6 | Warriors | 62% | 118 | 122 |
Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
| 19 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 65% | 119 | 104 |
| 26 | Wizards | 35% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 43% | 121 | 117 |
| 9 | Hawks | 57% | 123 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 22% | 105 | 118 |
| 1 | Celtics | 78% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 47% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 131 |
| 20 | Rockets | 46% | 108 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 52% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 14% | 106 | 119 |
| 8 | Suns | 86% | 122 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 40% | 110 | 128 |
| 27 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 113 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Grizzlies | 38% | 106 | 106 |
| 23 | Clippers | 62% | 110 | 117 |
Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 102 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 120 |
| 20 | Bulls | 55% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 78% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 30% | 112 | 105 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 70% | 120 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 30% | 105 | 105 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 70% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Heat | 33% | 108 | 114 |
| 6 | Warriors | 67% | 115 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 33% | 111 | 118 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 18% | 104 | 112 |
| 7 | Lakers | 82% | 117 | 133 |
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 15 | Magic | 46% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 66% | 119 | 132 |
| 27 | Wizards | 34% | 112 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 144 |
| 26 | Nets | 29% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| 17 | Rockets | 49% | 109 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 5 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Cavaliers | 41% | 110 | 113 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 59% | 113 | 110 |
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Nets | 73% | 118 | 118 |
| 29 | Pistons | 27% | 108 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 53% | 114 | 113 |
| 21 | Bulls | 47% | 113 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 19 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 39% | 109 | 116 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
| 5 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 58% | 118 | 130 |
| 28 | Spurs | 42% | 115 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 25% | 105 | 104 |
| 22 | Clippers | 75% | 115 | 113 |
Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 49% | 116 | 122 |
| 7 | Knicks | 51% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 36% | 111 | 114 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 64% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 126 |
| 8 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 47% | 111 | 113 |
| 13 | Heat | 53% | 112 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
| 18 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 114 |
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 46% | 115 | 130 |
| 7 | Knicks | 54% | 117 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 18 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Nuggets | 79% | 117 | 102 |
| 29 | Hornets | 21% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 23 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 32% | 107 | 106 |
| 8 | Pelicans | 68% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 9 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 22% | 108 | 115 |
| 11 | Nets | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
| 15 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cavaliers | 43% | 104 | 109 |
| 19 | Bulls | 57% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
| 3 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 34% | 114 | 119 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 66% | 120 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 114 | 110 |
| 12 | Kings | 42% | 111 | 98 |