Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 10, 2024

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Wizards	22%	106	110	111.1	99	102.5
	12	Heat	78%	118	108	110.2	98	94.7

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

-15

MIA

+20

-13

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.03 51.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Corey Kispert #24 · SG · 6'6" 224 · 25	39.3	22	69%	5	6	0	0	2	1	3	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	5-10	50%
Kyle Kuzma #33 · C · 6'8" 221 · 29	38.4	32	53%	9	4	0	2	4	2	1	8	12-16	75%	7-16	44%	2-7	29%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 28	38.2	12	67%	4	16	1	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 20	36.3	11	69%	4	1	2	2	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Deni Avdija #8 · PF · 6'8" 228 · 23	35.5	16	57%	10	2	1	1	2	5	2	8	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	1-4	25%

Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 25	22.6	6	50%	4	6	1	0	4	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Patrick Baldwin Jr. #7 · SF · 7'0" 220 · 21	11.1	8	80%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Johnny Davis #1 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 22	8.8	1	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Landry Shamet #20 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	7.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Eugene Omoruyi #97 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 27	2.7	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 31	0.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
R.J. Hampton #15 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jules Bernard #14 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Left Big Toe Sprain
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jared Butler #4 · SG · 6'3" 193 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Livers #12 · PF · 6'6" 232 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Joint Capsule Inflammation
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Lower Back Spasm
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	59%	40	35	5	6	15	18	6	34	16-22	73%	23-42	55%	16-39	41%

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28 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Corey Kispert #24 · SG · 6'6" 224 · 25	39.3	22	69%	5	6	0	0	2	1	3	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	5-10	50%
Kyle Kuzma #33 · C · 6'8" 221 · 29	38.4	32	53%	9	4	0	2	4	2	1	8	12-16	75%	7-16	44%	2-7	29%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 28	38.2	12	67%	4	16	1	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 20	36.3	11	69%	4	1	2	2	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Deni Avdija #8 · PF · 6'8" 228 · 23	35.5	16	57%	10	2	1	1	2	5	2	8	1-1	100%	6-10	60%	1-4	25%

Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 25	22.6	6	50%	4	6	1	0	4	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Patrick Baldwin Jr. #7 · SF · 7'0" 220 · 21	11.1	8	80%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Johnny Davis #1 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 22	8.8	1	50%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Landry Shamet #20 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	7.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Eugene Omoruyi #97 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 27	2.7	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 31	0.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
R.J. Hampton #15 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jules Bernard #14 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Toe; Left Big Toe Sprain
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jared Butler #4 · SG · 6'3" 193 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Livers #12 · PF · 6'6" 232 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Joint Capsule Inflammation
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Lower Back Spasm
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	59%	40	35	5	6	15	18	6	34	16-22	73%	23-42	55%	16-39	41%

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12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	36.5	23	50%	3	4	1	1	2	2	1	2	5-6	83%	9-16	56%	0-4	0%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 30	35.0	16	50%	7	4	2	0	2	2	0	7	0-0	-	8-13	62%	0-3	0%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 27	35.0	16	47%	16	2	2	1	0	3	7	9	2-6	33%	7-14	50%	0-0	-
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 30	33.5	16	47%	2	1	0	0	5	3	1	1	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	4-13	31%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	22.9	10	71%	6	4	1	1	1	3	1	5	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	1-4	25%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	30.5	11	61%	7	3	1	1	1	1	3	4	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-3	100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	24.9	6	43%	7	2	2	2	2	2	2	5	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Patty Mills #88 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 36	14.1	7	50%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	5.0	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 24	2.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Delon Wright #4 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alondes Williams #15 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Medial Tendinitis
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Surgery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	51%	51	20	9	5	13	18	16	35	12-18	67%	33-62	53%	10-33	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.03 51.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

61%

MIA

51%

Midrange

WAS

36%

MIA

57%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

24.0

41%

62%

MIA

15.0

30%

45%

Free Throws

WAS

73%

MIA

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Kuzma	32	53%	16.0 / 30
C. Kispert	22	69%	11.0 / 16
D. Avdija	16	57%	8.0 / 14
T. Jones	12	67%	6.0 / 9
B. Coulibaly	11	69%	5.5 / 8
P. Baldwin	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Poole	6	50%	3.0 / 6
E. Omoruyi	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Davis	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Butler	23	50%	11.5 / 23
T. Rozier	16	50%	8.0 / 16
B. Adebayo	16	47%	8.0 / 17
D. Robinson	16	47%	8.0 / 17
C. Martin	11	61%	5.5 / 9
N. Jović	10	71%	5.0 / 7
P. Mills	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Jaquez	6	43%	3.0 / 7
H. Highsmith	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	25 110.3 21 113.3	WAS 111.1 +0.9 MIA 110.2
Pace	1 103.0 29 97.0	WAS 102.5 +7.7 MIA 94.7
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.6 10 14.8	WAS 14.1 −1.1 MIA 15.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 53.8% 20 53.8%	WAS 58.0% +7.5% MIA 50.5%
TO %	19 13.1% 9 12.2%	WAS 14.2% MIA 11.2% −3.0%
ORB %	29 20.0% 26 21.8%	WAS 14.6% MIA 32.0% +17.4%
FTrt	27 22.1 8 25.7	WAS 27.2 +8.3 MIA 18.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 64.9% 11 64.8%	WAS 89.7% +43.2% MIA 46.5%
STL %	19 7.3% 11 7.7%	WAS 5.1% MIA 9.2% +4.1%
BLK %	16 9.4% 30 7.7%	WAS 9.7% MIA 11.9% +2.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.16 and 2.16.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	21 55.8% 17 56.2%	WAS 59.1% +7.7% MIA 51.4%
Rim FG%	8 65.7% 23 61.6%	WAS 61.3% +10.1% MIA 51.2%
Mid FG%	28 39.8% 13 44.3%	WAS 36.4% MIA 57.1% +20.7%
3P %	25 34.8% 12 37.0%	WAS 41.0% +10.7% MIA 30.3%
FT %	24 76.4% 5 81.8%	WAS 72.7% +6.0% MIA 66.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 35.4% 29 29.5%	WAS 38.3% MIA 43.2% +4.9%
Mid Att. %	8 25.7% 28 31.1%	WAS 13.6% −8.5% MIA 22.1%
3P Att. %	16 38.9% 14 39.4%	WAS 48.1% +13.4% MIA 34.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	99	98
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	110	108
Rebounds	40	51
Assists	35	20
Steals	5	9
Blocks	6	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	13 (0)
Fouls	18	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (3)	16 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (1)	35 (0)
Field Goals	39-81	43-95
At-the-Rim FG	19-31	21-41
Midrange FG	4-11	12-21
2-Point FG	23-42	33-62
3-Point FG	16-39	10-33
Free Throws	16-22	12-18
Fast Break Pts	13	14
2nd Chance Pts	7	13
Points in Paint	40	62
Pts off Turnovers	13	12
Bench Points	17	27
Biggest Lead	10	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg