Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 10, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Bucks | 63% | 117 | 124 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Pelicans | 65% | 118 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Heat | 78% | 118 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 14 | Magic | 53% | 114 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Knicks | 63% | 112 | 73 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Nets | 28% | 105 | 120 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Thunder | 80% | 114 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 109 |
 | 8 | Lakers | 51% | 110 | 120 |
Saturday, March 9, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Bulls | 30% | 106 | 102 |
| 4 | Clippers | 70% | 114 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 70% | 111 | 99 |
 | 30 | Hornets | 30% | 104 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Mavericks | 69% | 120 | 142 |
 | 25 | Pistons | 31% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 66% | 113 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Raptors | 53% | 111 | 118 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23CF0A2C;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20d='M300.9,131.4c-4.4-6.5-9.4-12.6-15-18.2c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.5-6.9L333,51.7H174l-61.4,61.4h0c0,0-0.1,0.1-0.1,0.1%20c-5.5,5.6-10.6,11.7-15,18.2c-4.4,6.6-8.2,13.6-11.3,20.8c-6.4,15.1-9.6,31.2-9.6,47.7c0,16.6,3.2,32.6,9.6,47.7%20c3.1,7.3,6.9,14.3,11.3,20.8c4.4,6.5,9.4,12.6,15,18.2c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.5,6.9l-54.6,54.6h159l61.6-61.6h0%20c5.5-5.5,10.5-11.6,14.9-18c4.4-6.6,8.2-13.6,11.3-20.8c6.4-15.1,9.6-31.2,9.6-47.7c0-16.6-3.2-32.6-9.6-47.7%20C309.1,145,305.3,137.9,300.9,131.4'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M278.8,120.3c-2.4-2.4-4.9-4.7-7.4-6.8l-66.7,66.7c3.3,0.9,6.4,2.7,9,5.3l0,0c8.1,8.1,8.1,21.1,0,29.2%20L89.9,338.3h14.5l116.4-116.4c12-12,12.1-31.5,0.1-43.6l7.2-7.2c16,16.1,15.9,42-0.1,58L118.9,338.3h14.5l101.9-101.9%20c20-20,20.1-52.5,0.1-72.5l7.2-7.2c24,24.1,23.9,63-0.1,87l-94.7,94.7h14.5l87.4-87.4c28-28,28.1-73.4,0.1-101.5l7.2-7.2%20c31.9,32.1,31.9,84-0.1,116l-80.2,80.2h14.5l72.9-72.9c36-36,36.1-94.4,0.1-130.5l7.3-7.3c40,40.1,39.9,105-0.1,145l-65.6,65.6%20h14.5l58.4-58.4l0,0C322.8,235.8,322.8,164.4,278.8,120.3'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M119.7,279.7c2.4,2.4,4.9,4.7,7.4,6.8l66.7-66.7c-3.3-0.9-6.4-2.7-9-5.3l0,0c-8.1-8.1-8.1-21.1,0-29.2%20L308.7,61.6h-14.5L177.7,178.1c-12,12-12.1,31.5-0.1,43.6l-7.2,7.2c-15.9-16.1-15.9-42,0.1-58L279.8,61.6h-14.5L163.2,163.6%20c-20,20-20.1,52.5-0.1,72.5l-7.2,7.2c-24-24.1-23.9-63,0.1-87l94.8-94.8h-14.5l-87.6,87.6c-28,28-28.1,73.4-0.1,101.5l-7.2,7.2%20c-31.9-32.1-31.9-84,0.1-116l80.3-80.3h-14.5l-73.1,73.1c-36,36-36.1,94.4-0.1,130.5l-7.3,7.3c-40-40.1-39.9-105,0.1-145l65.8-65.8%20h-14.5l-58.6,58.6l0,0C75.7,164.2,75.7,235.7,119.7,279.7'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 27 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 110 | 128 |
Friday, March 8, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pelicans | 61% | 114 | 103 |
| 22 | 76ers | 39% | 111 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 48% | 112 | 100 |
| 30 | Wizards | 52% | 113 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 46% | 103 | 104 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 54% | 104 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 49% | 106 | 74 |
| 19 | Knicks | 51% | 107 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 55% | 112 | 99 |
| 23 | Grizzlies | 45% | 110 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 31% | 107 | 100 |
| 4 | Thunder | 69% | 114 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bucks | 55% | 116 | 122 |
| 17 | Lakers | 45% | 114 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Rockets | 69% | 111 | 123 |
| 28 | Trail Blazers | 31% | 104 | 107 |
Thursday, March 7, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 61% | 111 | 112 |
| 26 | Pistons | 39% | 107 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 52% | 113 | 113 |
| 11 | Pacers | 48% | 112 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Heat | 41% | 113 | 108 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 59% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 25% | 106 | 113 |
| 12 | Suns | 75% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 55% | 112 | 109 |
| 2 | Nuggets | 45% | 110 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 33% | 106 | 125 |
| 6 | Warriors | 67% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Spurs | 29% | 112 | 129 |
| 14 | Kings | 71% | 120 | 131 |
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 65% | 114 | 119 |
| 28 | Wizards | 35% | 108 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Cavaliers | 60% | 115 | 101 |
| 21 | Hawks | 40% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 39% | 106 | 115 |
| 22 | 76ers | 61% | 110 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 59% | 112 | 122 |
| 15 | Rockets | 41% | 109 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 56% | 114 | 119 |
| 23 | Jazz | 44% | 112 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bucks | 51% | 116 | 90 |
| 13 | Warriors | 49% | 115 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 80% | 117 | 128 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 20% | 105 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 43% | 115 | 130 |
| 12 | Lakers | 57% | 118 | 120 |
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 72% | 111 | 101 |
| 29 | Hornets | 28% | 102 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 61% | 111 | 104 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 39% | 106 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 76ers | 49% | 110 | 107 |
| 19 | Nets | 51% | 111 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pistons | 23% | 104 | 110 |
| 10 | Heat | 77% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 37% | 112 | 116 |
| 18 | Knicks | 63% | 116 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 71% | 116 | 139 |
| 26 | Raptors | 29% | 108 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Spurs | 34% | 108 | 101 |
| 17 | Rockets | 66% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pacers | 39% | 119 | 137 |
| 8 | Mavericks | 61% | 124 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 35% | 108 | 117 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 65% | 114 | 107 |
Monday, March 4, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 26% | 100 | 106 |
| 18 | Nets | 74% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Clippers | 52% | 114 | 106 |
| 19 | Bucks | 48% | 113 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 14% | 97 | 114 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 86% | 113 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 41% | 117 | 115 |
| 24 | Jazz | 59% | 120 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 42% | 110 | 113 |
| 14 | Kings | 58% | 113 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Thunder | 51% | 116 | 104 |
| 10 | Lakers | 49% | 115 | 116 |
Sunday, March 3, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 39% | 116 | 120 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 61% | 121 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 30% | 108 | 88 |
| 1 | Celtics | 70% | 115 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 41% | 107 | 89 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 59% | 110 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pistons | 31% | 104 | 91 |
| 17 | Magic | 69% | 112 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 31% | 108 | 106 |
| 23 | Raptors | 69% | 115 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 38% | 105 | 107 |
| 7 | Cavaliers | 62% | 110 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pacers | 61% | 120 | 105 |
| 24 | Spurs | 39% | 116 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Thunder | 64% | 115 | 118 |
| 12 | Suns | 36% | 110 | 110 |
Saturday, March 2, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Hawks | 41% | 112 | 102 |
| 19 | Nets | 59% | 115 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 33% | 109 | 120 |
| 12 | Heat | 67% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Trail Blazers | 38% | 102 | 107 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 62% | 107 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 51% | 114 | 124 |
| 11 | Lakers | 49% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 33% | 107 | 118 |
| 4 | Suns | 67% | 114 | 109 |
Friday, March 1, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 78% | 115 | 110 |
| 27 | Pistons | 22% | 104 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 21% | 105 | 114 |
| 17 | 76ers | 79% | 117 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 25% | 110 | 110 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 120 | 138 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 58% | 116 | 120 |
| 21 | Raptors | 42% | 113 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 40% | 102 | 122 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 60% | 106 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kings | 25% | 106 | 124 |
| 2 | Timberwolves | 75% | 116 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pacers | 39% | 116 | 102 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 120 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bucks | 49% | 111 | 113 |
| 18 | Bulls | 51% | 112 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 18% | 110 | 115 |
| 8 | Clippers | 82% | 123 | 140 |
Thursday, February 29, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bucks | 74% | 116 | 111 |
| 29 | Hornets | 26% | 107 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Jazz | 40% | 110 | 107 |
| 19 | Magic | 60% | 114 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Hawks | 46% | 113 | 97 |
| 20 | Nets | 54% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 55% | 113 | 110 |
| 15 | Knicks | 45% | 111 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Thunder | 77% | 119 | 118 |
| 25 | Spurs | 23% | 108 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Rockets | 33% | 107 | 105 |
| 5 | Suns | 67% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 41% | 107 | 97 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 59% | 110 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 27% | 113 | 131 |
| 10 | Lakers | 73% | 121 | 134 |
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 43% | 116 | 114 |
| 12 | Pacers | 57% | 119 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 56% | 118 | 136 |
| 23 | Raptors | 44% | 116 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Grizzlies | 19% | 97 | 101 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 81% | 110 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 65% | 111 | 123 |
| 21 | Bulls | 35% | 105 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 32% | 111 | 96 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 68% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lakers | 46% | 114 | 116 |
| 14 | Clippers | 54% | 115 | 112 |
Tuesday, February 27, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 33% | 110 | 119 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 67% | 116 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 41% | 104 | 81 |
| 21 | Magic | 59% | 107 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 73% | 121 | 123 |
| 28 | Wizards | 27% | 112 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Jazz | 45% | 120 | 97 |
| 22 | Hawks | 55% | 121 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 24% | 108 | 99 |
| 1 | Celtics | 76% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 49% | 112 | 115 |
| 12 | Knicks | 51% | 113 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Spurs | 19% | 101 | 105 |
| 3 | Timberwolves | 81% | 114 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 26% | 104 | 105 |
| 18 | Bulls | 74% | 113 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 20% | 105 | 85 |
| 8 | Bucks | 80% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 30% | 107 | 95 |
| 4 | Thunder | 70% | 115 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 68% | 110 | 106 |
| 30 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 104 | 96 |
Monday, February 26, 2024
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 37% | 116 | 130 |
| 15 | Pacers | 63% | 120 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 19% | 105 | 111 |
| 12 | Knicks | 81% | 118 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 53% | 106 | 111 |
| 25 | Grizzlies | 47% | 105 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 52% | 111 | 121 |
| 17 | Kings | 48% | 110 | 110 |