Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	20	Heat	23%	104	107	108.1	99	93.0
	2	Cavaliers	77%	115	112	113.1	99	105.9

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+11

-13

CLE

+13

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.10 55.2%

CLE

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

20 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Terry Rozier #2 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 31	40.3	12	38%	1	2	1	0	4	1	0	1	5-5	100%	2-6	33%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.5	34	77%	12	5	2	0	2	1	2	10	9-9	100%	8-13	62%	3-5	60%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	26.3	9	75%	1	7	1	0	2	3	0	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Alec Burks #18 · SF · 6'5" 214 · 34	25.1	5	31%	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-1	0%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	16.3	10	50%	6	1	1	2	1	2	3	3	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	29.0	14	70%	3	2	0	0	3	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	27.4	13	65%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	1-3	33%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 31	25.9	7	39%	11	7	0	0	1	2	4	7	1-2	50%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	12.1	3	50%	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	NWT - Not With Team
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	55%	42	29	7	2	13	19	9	33	22-25	88%	23-47	49%	13-36	36%

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20 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Terry Rozier #2 · SG · 6'1" 195 · 31	40.3	12	38%	1	2	1	0	4	1	0	1	5-5	100%	2-6	33%	1-8	13%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.5	34	77%	12	5	2	0	2	1	2	10	9-9	100%	8-13	62%	3-5	60%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 26	26.3	9	75%	1	7	1	0	2	3	0	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Alec Burks #18 · SF · 6'5" 214 · 34	25.1	5	31%	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	0-1	0%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 36	16.3	10	50%	6	1	1	2	1	2	3	3	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	29.0	14	70%	3	2	0	0	3	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	27.4	13	65%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	1-3	33%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 31	25.9	7	39%	11	7	0	0	1	2	4	7	1-2	50%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	12.1	3	50%	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	NWT - Not With Team
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	55%	42	29	7	2	13	19	9	33	22-25	88%	23-47	49%	13-36	36%

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2 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 28	35.7	26	65%	7	5	2	0	5	2	1	6	6-7	86%	4-6	67%	4-11	36%
Evan Mobley #4 · PF · 6'11" 215 · 24	35.5	16	62%	13	3	0	1	3	3	4	9	2-7	29%	7-10	70%	0-0	-
Darius Garland #10 · PG · 6'1" 192 · 25	31.9	15	63%	3	10	1	0	2	1	1	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	3-9	33%
Max Strus #1 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 29	26.0	11	69%	2	2	1	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-7	43%
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 27	25.4	4	33%	8	1	0	2	1	2	0	8	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-

Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 28	24.4	12	46%	5	1	1	0	1	0	1	4	2-2	100%	2-7	29%	2-5	40%
De'Andre Hunter #12 · SF · 6'7" 221 · 27	24.1	16	57%	5	2	0	1	0	3	2	3	4-4	100%	6-8	75%	0-4	0%
Sam Merrill #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 29	15.9	3	50%	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 28	11.0	2	50%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Isaac Okoro #35 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 24	10.1	7	70%	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Javonte Green #8 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylon Tyson #24 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Thompson #13 · C · 6'9" 254 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #30 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Luke Travers #33 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emoni Bates #21 · SF · 6'9" 202 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	57%	47	26	7	4	13	19	10	37	16-22	73%	27-47	57%	14-40	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.10 55.2%

CLE

1.13 56.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

46%

CLE

71%

Midrange

MIA

52%

CLE

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

19.5

36%

54%

CLE

21.0

35%

53%

Free Throws

MIA

88%

CLE

73%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	34	77%	17.0 / 22
D. Robinson	14	70%	7.0 / 10
H. Highsmith	13	65%	6.5 / 10
T. Rozier	12	38%	6.0 / 16
K. Love	10	50%	5.0 / 10
D. Mitchell	9	75%	4.5 / 6
K. Anderson	7	39%	3.5 / 9
A. Burks	5	31%	2.5 / 8
P. Larsson	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Mitchell	26	65%	13.0 / 20
E. Mobley	16	62%	8.0 / 13
D. Hunter	16	57%	8.0 / 14
D. Garland	15	63%	7.5 / 12
T. Jerome	12	46%	6.0 / 13
M. Strus	11	69%	5.5 / 8
I. Okoro	7	70%	3.5 / 5
J. Allen	4	33%	2.0 / 6
S. Merrill	3	50%	1.5 / 3
D. Wade	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 112.4 1 120.9	MIA 108.1 CLE 113.1 +5.1
Pace	27 97.2 10 100.4	MIA 93.0 CLE 105.9 +12.9
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.9 26 13.8	MIA 15.5 CLE 13.6 −1.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	19 54.4% 1 57.8%	MIA 51.2% CLE 55.2% +4.0%
TO %	8 12.8% 5 12.4%	MIA 13.0% CLE 11.9% −1.1%
ORB %	27 22.3% 13 25.9%	MIA 19.6% CLE 23.3% +3.7%
FTrt	24 23.2 18 24.1	MIA 30.1 +4.8 CLE 25.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 65.3% 19 63.1%	MIA 80.6% +17.2% CLE 63.4%
STL %	12 8.3% 15 8.1%	MIA 7.1% CLE 7.1%
BLK %	30 7.6% 28 7.9%	MIA 4.3% CLE 8.5% +4.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	19 56.0% 1 59.2%	MIA 55.2% CLE 56.6% +1.4%
Rim FG%	22 62.5% 9 66.0%	MIA 45.8% CLE 71.4% +25.6%
Mid FG%	12 44.4% 2 47.9%	MIA 52.2% +15.4% CLE 36.8%
3P %	11 36.7% 2 38.3%	MIA 36.1% +1.1% CLE 35.0%
FT %	8 79.1% 17 77.6%	MIA 88.0% +15.3% CLE 72.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25 29.6% 20 30.6%	MIA 28.9% CLE 32.2% +3.3%
Mid Att. %	20 27.5% 9 23.7%	MIA 27.7% CLE 21.8% −5.9%
3P Att. %	12 42.9% 5 45.7%	MIA 43.4% CLE 46.0% +2.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	CLE
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	25.6	22.4
Points	107	112
Rebounds	42	47
Assists	29	26
Steals	7	7
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	13 (0)
Fouls	19	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	10 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (3)	37 (2)
Field Goals	36-83	41-87
At-the-Rim FG	11-24	20-28
Midrange FG	12-23	7-19
2-Point FG	23-47	27-47
3-Point FG	13-36	14-40
Free Throws	22-25	16-22
Fast Break Pts	13	18
2nd Chance Pts	12	15
Points in Paint	40	54
Pts off Turnovers	16	20
Bench Points	37	40
Biggest Lead	7	17

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg