Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 9, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Nuggets	34%	113	103	104.0	99	97.4
	1	Thunder	66%	119	127	128.3	99	100.6

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+17

-7

109

OKC

+12

-5

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

0.94 47.2%

OKC

1.20 59.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	42.1	17	45%	2	4	1	0	1	2	0	2	4-4	100%	5-12	42%	1-5	20%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	41.2	24	46%	13	9	1	3	2	3	2	11	2-6	33%	8-13	62%	2-10	20%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	38.2	24	60%	15	0	0	1	2	4	3	12	1-2	50%	7-11	64%	3-8	38%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	32.0	19	63%	3	2	1	0	1	3	1	2	0-1	0%	5-10	50%	3-5	60%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	6.7	5	83%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-1	0%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%

Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	30.9	4	20%	11	5	0	1	1	2	7	4	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	1-5	20%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	21.6	3	50%	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	16.4	7	44%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	5.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	INACTIVE
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	47%	48	22	3	6	7	18	14	34	11-20	55%	28-57	49%	12-40	30%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	42.1	17	45%	2	4	1	0	1	2	0	2	4-4	100%	5-12	42%	1-5	20%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	41.2	24	46%	13	9	1	3	2	3	2	11	2-6	33%	8-13	62%	2-10	20%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	38.2	24	60%	15	0	0	1	2	4	3	12	1-2	50%	7-11	64%	3-8	38%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	32.0	19	63%	3	2	1	0	1	3	1	2	0-1	0%	5-10	50%	3-5	60%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 29	6.7	5	83%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-1	0%	1-2	50%	1-1	100%

Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	30.9	4	20%	11	5	0	1	1	2	7	4	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	1-5	20%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	21.6	3	50%	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	16.4	7	44%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	5.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	INACTIVE
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	47%	48	22	3	6	7	18	14	34	11-20	55%	28-57	49%	12-40	30%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jalen Williams #8 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 24	38.2	26	68%	9	8	2	1	1	0	2	7	10-11	91%	5-10	50%	2-4	50%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	35.4	40	57%	8	5	0	3	1	3	2	6	8-8	100%	13-21	62%	2-11	18%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 27	31.2	10	83%	11	1	0	0	1	4	1	10	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 26	30.3	6	38%	6	3	1	1	1	1	2	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	2-5	40%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 23	25.9	14	70%	8	1	0	4	0	5	2	6	1-1	100%	5-8	63%	1-2	50%

Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 26	18.4	4	40%	7	1	1	0	1	0	0	7	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 21	16.9	5	42%	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 31	16.5	8	80%	2	2	1	2	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	1-3	33%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	12.8	5	63%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	9.8	9	90%	5	1	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-2	0%	0-0	-	3-5	60%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 30	3.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 22	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dillon Jones #3 · SF · 6'5" 235 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Adam Flagler #14 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alex Ducas #88 · SG · 6'7" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	60%	56	25	5	14	5	20	10	46	22-25	88%	33-56	59%	13-38	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

0.94 47.2%

OKC

1.20 59.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

55%

OKC

70%

Midrange

DEN

42%

OKC

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

30%

45%

OKC

19.5

34%

51%

Free Throws

DEN

55%

OKC

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	24	46%	12.0 / 26
M. Porter	24	60%	12.0 / 20
C. Braun	19	63%	9.5 / 15
J. Murray	17	45%	8.5 / 19
J. Pickett	7	44%	3.5 / 8
A. Gordon	5	83%	2.5 / 3
R. Westbrook	4	20%	2.0 / 10
Z. Nnaji	3	50%	1.5 / 3
P. Watson	0	-	0.0 / 1
S. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	40	57%	20.0 / 35
J. Williams	26	68%	13.0 / 19
C. Holmgren	14	70%	7.0 / 10
I. Hartenstein	10	83%	5.0 / 6
J. Williams	9	90%	4.5 / 5
A. Caruso	8	80%	4.0 / 5
L. Dort	6	38%	3.0 / 8
C. Wallace	5	42%	2.5 / 6
I. Joe	5	63%	2.5 / 4
A. Wiggins	4	40%	2.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 3 119.2	DEN 104.0 OKC 128.3 +24.2
Pace	8 100.6 5 100.9	DEN 97.4 OKC 100.6 +3.2
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 25 13.9	DEN 14.8 OKC 14.3 −0.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 7 56.0%	DEN 47.4% OKC 55.9% +8.5%
TO %	15 13.3% 1 10.9%	DEN 7.0% OKC 4.5% −2.5%
ORB %	7 26.7% 21 24.2%	DEN 23.3% +0.6% OKC 22.7%
FTrt	5 25.9 28 22.0	DEN 20.6 OKC 26.6 +6.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 26 60.2%	DEN 55.0% +0.7% OKC 54.3%
STL %	19 7.9% 1 10.2%	DEN 3.0% OKC 5.1% +2.1%
BLK %	21 9.0% 2 11.9%	DEN 10.7% OKC 24.6% +13.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.52 and 2.52.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 4 57.9%	DEN 47.2% OKC 59.9% +12.7%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 10 65.7%	DEN 54.5% OKC 70.0% +15.5%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 7 45.7%	DEN 41.7% OKC 46.2% +4.5%
3P %	5 37.6% 6 37.4%	DEN 30.0% OKC 34.2% +4.2%
FT %	23 77.0% 1 81.9%	DEN 55.0% OKC 88.0% +33.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 26 29.5%	DEN 34.0% +2.1% OKC 31.9%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 25 28.6%	DEN 24.7% −2.9% OKC 27.7%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 16 41.9%	DEN 41.2% +0.8% OKC 40.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	OKC
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	103	127
Rebounds	48	56
Assists	22	25
Steals	3	5
Blocks	6	14
Turnovers (Team)	7 (1)	5 (0)
Fouls	18	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (3)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (4)	46 (0)
Field Goals	40-97	46-94
At-the-Rim FG	18-33	21-30
Midrange FG	10-24	12-26
2-Point FG	28-57	33-56
3-Point FG	12-40	13-38
Free Throws	11-20	22-25
Fast Break Pts	11	10
2nd Chance Pts	17	16
Points in Paint	46	54
Pts off Turnovers	9	15
Bench Points	14	31
Biggest Lead	11	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg