Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Warriors	58%	108	86	94.5	91	101.2
	15	Heat	42%	105	112	124.4	90	81.7

Scoring Opportunities

GSW

+17

-12

MIA

+11

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

GSW

0.90 44.8%

MIA

1.30 65.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandin Podziemski #2 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 22	30.3	14	44%	3	4	2	0	1	1	1	2	0-1	0%	4-10	40%	2-6	33%
Jimmy Butler III #10 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	28.7	11	46%	6	2	1	0	0	0	5	1	1-1	100%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 23	25.0	7	27%	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	0-9	0%
Draymond Green #23 · C · 6'6" 230 · 35	23.2	2	25%	5	3	0	0	3	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Gary Payton II #0 · SF · 6'2" 195 · 32	20.0	4	100%	7	2	2	0	2	3	2	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-

Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 32	25.5	10	56%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Jonathan Kuminga #00 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 22	24.8	15	54%	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	2	6-9	67%	3-7	43%	1-3	33%
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 23	19.6	13	81%	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-6	50%
Kevon Looney #5 · C · 6'9" 222 · 29	14.5	3	75%	5	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Quinten Post #21 · PF · 7'0" 238 · 25	13.6	3	30%	1	3	0	0	4	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 29	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Kevin Knox II #31 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 25	4.2	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Braxton Key #12 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taran Armstrong #1 · NA · 6'5" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jackson Rowe #44 · PF · 6'6" 210 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 37	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Pelvic; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	86	45%	38	20	8	1	12	14	14	24	11-16	69%	24-45	53%	9-38	24%

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7 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandin Podziemski #2 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 22	30.3	14	44%	3	4	2	0	1	1	1	2	0-1	0%	4-10	40%	2-6	33%
Jimmy Butler III #10 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	28.7	11	46%	6	2	1	0	0	0	5	1	1-1	100%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 23	25.0	7	27%	1	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	0-9	0%
Draymond Green #23 · C · 6'6" 230 · 35	23.2	2	25%	5	3	0	0	3	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Gary Payton II #0 · SF · 6'2" 195 · 32	20.0	4	100%	7	2	2	0	2	3	2	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-

Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 32	25.5	10	56%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Jonathan Kuminga #00 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 22	24.8	15	54%	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	2	6-9	67%	3-7	43%	1-3	33%
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 23	19.6	13	81%	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-6	50%
Kevon Looney #5 · C · 6'9" 222 · 29	14.5	3	75%	5	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Quinten Post #21 · PF · 7'0" 238 · 25	13.6	3	30%	1	3	0	0	4	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 29	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Kevin Knox II #31 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 25	4.2	4	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Braxton Key #12 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taran Armstrong #1 · NA · 6'5" 190 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jackson Rowe #44 · PF · 6'6" 210 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 37	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Pelvic; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	86	45%	38	20	8	1	12	14	14	24	11-16	69%	24-45	53%	9-38	24%

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	35.7	20	91%	3	7	0	0	2	0	0	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	4-4	100%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	34.3	27	61%	8	1	1	1	3	1	1	7	7-9	78%	7-15	47%	2-3	67%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 30	28.0	10	38%	5	5	2	3	2	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-9	22%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 21	28.0	14	64%	10	0	0	1	2	4	1	9	0-0	-	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Alec Burks #18 · SG · 6'5" 214 · 34	24.3	17	106%	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-7	71%

Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	32.4	12	75%	5	7	1	0	2	3	3	2	0-1	0%	3-6	50%	2-2	100%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 28	30.2	0	0%	6	3	1	0	0	4	1	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Kyle Anderson #20 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	20.0	7	117%	3	3	2	0	2	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	3.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	3.6	5	63%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hand; Broken
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Pain
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Isaiah Stevens #4 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Christopher #8 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	65%	42	26	8	5	15	15	8	34	9-12	75%	26-52	50%	17-25	68%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	GSW	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	GSW	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

GSW

0.90 44.8%

MIA

1.30 65.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

GSW

69%

MIA

55%

Midrange

GSW

32%

MIA

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

GSW

13.5

24%

36%

MIA

25.5

68%

102%

Free Throws

GSW

69%

MIA

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Kuminga	15	54%	7.5 / 14
B. Podziemski	14	44%	7.0 / 16
G. Santos	13	81%	6.5 / 8
J. Butler	11	46%	5.5 / 12
B. Hield	10	56%	5.0 / 9
M. Moody	7	27%	3.5 / 13
G. Payton	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Jackson-Davis	4	100%	2.0 / 2
K. Looney	3	75%	1.5 / 2
Q. Post	3	30%	1.5 / 5
D. Green	2	25%	1.0 / 4
P. Spencer	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	27	61%	13.5 / 22
T. Herro	20	91%	10.0 / 11
A. Burks	17	106%	8.5 / 8
K. Ware	14	64%	7.0 / 11
D. Mitchell	12	75%	6.0 / 8
A. Wiggins	10	38%	5.0 / 13
K. Anderson	7	117%	3.5 / 3
P. Larsson	5	63%	2.5 / 4
H. Highsmith	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	16 114.2 21 112.4	GSW 94.5 MIA 124.4 +29.9
Pace	17 99.4 27 97.2	GSW 101.2 +19.5 MIA 81.7
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.3 9 14.9	GSW 14.2 −3.4 MIA 17.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.6% 19 54.4%	GSW 45.2% MIA 66.9% +21.7%
TO %	13 13.2% 8 12.8%	GSW 15.1% −2.8% MIA 17.9%
ORB %	5 27.3% 27 22.3%	GSW 29.2% +4.2% MIA 25.0%
FTrt	14 24.4 24 23.2	GSW 19.3 +3.7 MIA 15.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	1 71.4% 10 65.3%	GSW 60.6% +0.1% MIA 60.5%
STL %	3 9.4% 12 8.3%	GSW 8.8% MIA 8.9% +0.1%
BLK %	13 9.5% 30 7.6%	GSW 1.9% MIA 11.1% +9.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	21 55.3% 19 56.0%	GSW 44.8% MIA 65.1% +20.3%
Rim FG%	21 62.7% 22 62.5%	GSW 69.2% +14.4% MIA 54.8%
Mid FG%	25 39.9% 12 44.4%	GSW 31.6% MIA 42.9% +11.3%
3P %	16 36.4% 11 36.7%	GSW 23.7% MIA 68.0% +44.3%
FT %	25 76.3% 8 79.1%	GSW 68.8% MIA 75.0% +6.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.1% 25 29.6%	GSW 31.3% MIA 40.3% +8.9%
Mid Att. %	7 23.1% 20 27.5%	GSW 22.9% −4.4% MIA 27.3%
3P Att. %	2 46.9% 12 42.9%	GSW 45.8% +13.3% MIA 32.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	GSW	MIA
Possessions	91	90
Possession Minutes	21.6	26.4
Points	86	112
Rebounds	38	42
Assists	20	26
Steals	8	8
Blocks	1	5
Turnovers (Team)	12 (4)	15 (3)
Fouls	14	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (3)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	24 (1)	34 (3)
Field Goals	33-83	43-77
At-the-Rim FG	18-26	17-31
Midrange FG	6-19	9-21
2-Point FG	24-45	26-52
3-Point FG	9-38	17-25
Free Throws	11-16	9-12
Fast Break Pts	8	12
2nd Chance Pts	20	12
Points in Paint	42	44
Pts off Turnovers	12	18
Bench Points	48	24
Biggest Lead	0	28

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg