Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, March 25, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 58% | 107 | 111 | |
| 24 | Hornets | 42% | 104 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 37% | 111 | 96 | |
| 14 | Pistons | 63% | 116 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 58% | 108 | 86 | |
| 15 | Heat | 42% | 105 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 23% | 107 | 113 | |
| 12 | Knicks | 77% | 118 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 31% | 112 | 114 | |
| 6 | Rockets | 69% | 119 | 121 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 77% | 124 | 140 | |
| 28 | Jazz | 23% | 113 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 68% | 118 | 122 | |
| 20 | Blazers | 32% | 111 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 78% | 118 | 121 | |
| 17 | Kings | 22% | 107 | 105 | |
Monday, March 24, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 51% | 115 | 103 | |
| 10 | Pacers | 49% | 114 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 53% | 105 | 106 | |
| 16 | Magic | 47% | 104 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 45% | 110 | 112 | |
| 27 | Wizards | 55% | 112 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 55% | 109 | 120 | |
| 24 | Nets | 45% | 107 | 101 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 56% | 112 | 99 | |
| 30 | Pelicans | 44% | 110 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 49% | 117 | 129 | |
| 20 | Nuggets | 51% | 118 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 44% | 111 | 106 | |
| 12 | Suns | 56% | 113 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 62% | 117 | 113 | |
| 14 | Kings | 38% | 112 | 95 | |
Sunday, March 23, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pelicans | 21% | 104 | 130 | |
| 12 | Pistons | 79% | 116 | 136 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 84% | 126 | 120 | |
| 29 | Jazz | 16% | 111 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 35% | 114 | 119 | |
| 16 | Hawks | 65% | 119 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 36% | 106 | 105 | |
| 17 | Heat | 64% | 111 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Spurs | 55% | 114 | 123 | |
| 27 | Raptors | 45% | 112 | 89 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 75% | 117 | 129 | |
| 22 | Blazers | 25% | 108 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 31% | 108 | 116 | |
| 6 | Rockets | 69% | 116 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 53% | 111 | 103 | |
| 4 | Clippers | 47% | 110 | 101 | |
Saturday, March 22, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 28% | 107 | 103 | |
| 11 | Pacers | 72% | 116 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 62% | 117 | 115 | |
| 18 | Hawks | 38% | 113 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 12% | 104 | 103 | |
| 9 | Knicks | 88% | 121 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 48% | 111 | 114 | |
| 17 | Kings | 52% | 112 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 31% | 111 | 146 | |
| 10 | Lakers | 69% | 119 | 115 | |
Friday, March 21, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 68% | 111 | 120 | |
| 27 | Wizards | 32% | 104 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 61% | 109 | 102 | |
| 18 | Heat | 39% | 105 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pelicans | 15% | 104 | 93 | |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 85% | 120 | 134 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 6% | 97 | 106 | |
| 1 | Thunder | 94% | 120 | 141 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 39% | 113 | 120 | |
| 22 | Spurs | 61% | 117 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 64% | 114 | 117 | |
| 23 | Mavericks | 36% | 109 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 85% | 122 | 121 | |
| 28 | Jazz | 15% | 107 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 65% | 119 | 112 | |
| 13 | Suns | 35% | 113 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nuggets | 55% | 113 | 109 | |
| 21 | Blazers | 45% | 111 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 39% | 112 | 108 | |
| 4 | Clippers | 61% | 116 | 128 | |
Thursday, March 20, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 64% | 114 | 98 | |
| 23 | Hornets | 36% | 108 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 36% | 107 | 99 | |
| 13 | Pacers | 64% | 113 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 17% | 104 | 114 | |
| 4 | Warriors | 83% | 118 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 34% | 114 | 128 | |
| 12 | Kings | 66% | 120 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 68% | 109 | 118 | |
| 26 | Lakers | 32% | 103 | 89 | |
Wednesday, March 19, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Mavericks | 33% | 109 | 131 | |
| 14 | Pacers | 67% | 116 | 135 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rockets | 56% | 106 | 116 | |
| 16 | Magic | 44% | 104 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 56% | 109 | 116 | |
| 17 | Heat | 44% | 107 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Pelicans | 18% | 106 | 119 | |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 82% | 119 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 13% | 101 | 100 | |
| 4 | Thunder | 87% | 117 | 133 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 66% | 116 | 105 | |
| 22 | Spurs | 34% | 110 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 51% | 117 | 112 | |
| 30 | Jazz | 49% | 116 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 36% | 108 | 108 | |
| 8 | Lakers | 64% | 113 | 120 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bulls | 39% | 115 | 121 | |
| 12 | Suns | 61% | 119 | 127 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 65% | 119 | 99 | |
| 21 | Blazers | 35% | 114 | 115 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 60% | 118 | 119 | |
| 13 | Kings | 40% | 114 | 123 | |
Tuesday, March 18, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 70% | 117 | 134 | |
| 30 | Hornets | 30% | 109 | 102 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 20% | 102 | 96 | |
| 3 | Celtics | 80% | 115 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bucks | 42% | 110 | 93 | |
| 6 | Warriors | 58% | 113 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 54% | 113 | 119 | |
| 5 | Clippers | 46% | 112 | 132 | |
Monday, March 17, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 35% | 104 | 95 | |
| 7 | Knicks | 65% | 110 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 15% | 101 | 137 | |
| 8 | Rockets | 85% | 116 | 144 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 28% | 106 | 132 | |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 72% | 115 | 130 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 63% | 117 | 127 | |
| 22 | Pelicans | 37% | 112 | 81 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 62% | 121 | 111 | |
| 28 | Jazz | 38% | 116 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nuggets | 23% | 108 | 114 | |
| 2 | Warriors | 77% | 119 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Raptors | 33% | 108 | 89 | |
| 14 | Suns | 67% | 115 | 129 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Grizzlies | 51% | 119 | 122 | |
| 13 | Kings | 49% | 118 | 132 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 44% | 114 | 97 | |
| 19 | Blazers | 56% | 116 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Spurs | 34% | 109 | 109 | |
| 10 | Lakers | 66% | 115 | 125 | |
Sunday, March 16, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 76ers | 40% | 109 | 130 | |
| 25 | Mavericks | 60% | 113 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Magic | 25% | 104 | 108 | |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 75% | 114 | 103 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 40% | 110 | 96 | |
| 12 | Lakers | 60% | 114 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 60% | 114 | 114 | |
| 24 | Nets | 40% | 111 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Raptors | 39% | 109 | 102 | |
| 18 | Blazers | 61% | 113 | 105 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 21% | 104 | 88 | |
| 6 | Clippers | 79% | 116 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 18% | 107 | 102 | |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 82% | 121 | 128 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 70% | 115 | 121 | |
| 11 | Bucks | 30% | 108 | 105 | |
Saturday, March 15, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 71% | 114 | 115 | |
| 21 | Nets | 29% | 106 | 113 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 67% | 115 | 113 | |
| 11 | Pistons | 33% | 109 | 107 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 33% | 111 | 114 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 67% | 118 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 37% | 110 | 91 | |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 63% | 115 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pacers | 45% | 115 | 119 | |
| 15 | Bucks | 55% | 117 | 126 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pelicans | 45% | 115 | 115 | |
| 23 | Spurs | 55% | 117 | 119 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 38% | 111 | 94 | |
| 4 | Warriors | 62% | 115 | 97 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 19% | 113 | 126 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 81% | 126 | 123 | |
Friday, March 14, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 68% | 112 | 103 | |
| 17 | Heat | 32% | 105 | 91 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pacers | 72% | 117 | 112 | |
| 30 | 76ers | 28% | 109 | 100 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Clippers | 60% | 115 | 121 | |
| 18 | Hawks | 40% | 111 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Mavericks | 29% | 106 | 96 | |
| 10 | Rockets | 71% | 114 | 133 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 55% | 118 | 133 | |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 45% | 116 | 124 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 27% | 100 | 111 | |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 73% | 109 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 43% | 111 | 145 | |
| 20 | Spurs | 57% | 114 | 134 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lakers | 18% | 107 | 126 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 82% | 121 | 131 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 51% | 116 | 126 | |
| 27 | Jazz | 49% | 115 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kings | 43% | 114 | 106 | |
| 16 | Suns | 57% | 117 | 122 | |
Thursday, March 13, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 23% | 108 | 129 | |
| 13 | Pistons | 77% | 119 | 125 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 52% | 111 | 106 | |
| 14 | Bucks | 48% | 110 | 126 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 51% | 116 | 110 | |
| 24 | Bulls | 49% | 115 | 116 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 56% | 109 | 113 | |
| 22 | Pelicans | 44% | 107 | 93 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kings | 28% | 111 | 104 | |
| 4 | Warriors | 72% | 119 | 130 | |
Wednesday, March 12, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 39% | 113 | 110 | |
| 19 | Hawks | 61% | 117 | 123 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 51% | 114 | 118 | |
| 2 | Celtics | 49% | 113 | 112 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 49% | 108 | 105 | |
| 30 | Raptors | 51% | 109 | 118 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 48% | 105 | 119 | |
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 106 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 42% | 112 | 104 | |
| 12 | Rockets | 58% | 115 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 25% | 115 | 115 | |
| 10 | Grizzlies | 75% | 125 | 122 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Mavericks | 46% | 114 | 116 | |
| 22 | Spurs | 54% | 115 | 126 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 41% | 114 | 115 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 59% | 117 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 63% | 114 | 114 | |
| 23 | Blazers | 37% | 109 | 113 | |