Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	19	Nuggets	36%	108	108	105.9	102	105.4
	8	Lakers	64%	113	120	117.6	102	98.8

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+15

-18

LAL

+10

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.09 54.5%

LAL

1.21 60.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

19 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	30.1	26	81%	11	0	1	0	4	2	1	10	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	5-9	56%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	28.6	12	38%	4	9	2	0	3	2	3	1	3-5	60%	3-10	30%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.7	10	63%	4	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	27.5	12	60%	4	1	3	0	2	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	1-5	20%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	25.1	12	60%	2	2	0	1	3	2	1	1	1-4	25%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%

Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	29.3	9	56%	3	0	0	1	1	3	2	1	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-3	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	22.1	2	25%	8	3	0	0	2	2	0	8	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	19.4	14	78%	4	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-6	67%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	12.3	6	43%	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-4	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	9.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	8.3	5	125%	2	1	0	2	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion/Left Ankle Impingement
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	55%	45	25	8	4	18	17	12	33	13-21	62%	28-48	58%	13-39	33%

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19 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Aaron Gordon #32 · C · 6'8" 235 · 30	30.1	26	81%	11	0	1	0	4	2	1	10	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	5-9	56%
Russell Westbrook #4 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 36	28.6	12	38%	4	9	2	0	3	2	3	1	3-5	60%	3-10	30%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 24	27.7	10	63%	4	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	2-4	50%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Michael Porter Jr. #1 · SF · 6'10" 218 · 27	27.5	12	60%	4	1	3	0	2	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	1-5	20%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	25.1	12	60%	2	2	0	1	3	2	1	1	1-4	25%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%

Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	29.3	9	56%	3	0	0	1	1	3	2	1	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-3	0%
Vlatko Čančar #31 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 28	22.1	2	25%	8	3	0	0	2	2	0	8	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 25	19.4	14	78%	4	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-6	67%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	12.3	6	43%	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-4	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 24	9.6	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
PJ Hall #13 · C · 6'8" 245 · 23	8.3	5	125%	2	1	0	2	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 37	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #9 · C · 6'10" 225 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Alexander #23 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Elbow; Contusion/Left Ankle Impingement
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Repair
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Sprain
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	55%	45	25	8	4	18	17	12	33	13-21	62%	28-48	58%	13-39	33%

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8 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 27	36.1	22	61%	5	8	2	1	1	2	0	5	4-4	100%	6-9	67%	2-7	29%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 26	32.3	31	62%	8	7	2	1	6	3	0	8	7-10	70%	6-12	50%	4-9	44%
Dorian Finney-Smith #17 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 32	30.2	14	88%	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	3-4	75%
Jordan Goodwin #30 · SF · 6'3" 215 · 26	26.5	8	44%	3	3	4	0	1	1	1	2	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 25	24.2	6	60%	7	0	1	1	0	1	2	5	0-2	0%	3-4	75%	0-0	-

Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 24	25.2	12	55%	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	3-7	43%
Gabe Vincent #7 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 29	22.8	12	100%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-6	67%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 26	18.2	10	71%	2	1	3	0	3	2	1	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Christian Koloko #10 · C · 6'11" 225 · 25	14.0	4	100%	5	0	0	0	1	3	2	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Shake Milton #20 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 28	6.6	1	10%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 20	4.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Markieff Morris #88 · PF · 6'10" 245 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Len #27 · C · 7'0" 250 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Reddish #5 · SF · 6'8" 208 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trey Jemison III #55 · C · 6'10" 270 · 25	INACTIVE
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 40	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; strain
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery Recovery
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Patellar; Tendinopathy
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	61%	38	25	13	3	13	17	8	30	20-28	71%	26-45	58%	16-38	42%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	LAL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	LAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.09 54.5%

LAL

1.21 60.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

62%

LAL

67%

Midrange

DEN

50%

LAL

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

19.5

33%

50%

LAL

24.0

42%

63%

Free Throws

DEN

62%

LAL

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Gordon	26	81%	13.0 / 16
J. Pickett	14	78%	7.0 / 9
R. Westbrook	12	38%	6.0 / 16
M. Porter	12	60%	6.0 / 10
P. Watson	12	60%	6.0 / 10
C. Braun	10	63%	5.0 / 8
S. Jones	9	56%	4.5 / 8
H. Tyson	6	43%	3.0 / 7
P. Hall	5	125%	2.5 / 2
V. Cancar	2	25%	1.0 / 4
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	31	62%	15.5 / 25
A. Reaves	22	61%	11.0 / 18
D. Finney-Smith	14	88%	7.0 / 8
D. Knecht	12	55%	6.0 / 11
G. Vincent	12	100%	6.0 / 6
J. Vanderbilt	10	71%	5.0 / 7
J. Goodwin	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Hayes	6	60%	3.0 / 5
C. Koloko	4	100%	2.0 / 2
S. Milton	1	10%	0.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	4 118.9 11 114.9	DEN 105.9 LAL 117.6 +11.8
Pace	8 100.6 20 98.4	DEN 105.4 +6.7 LAL 98.8
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.2 7 15.0	DEN 13.7 −0.9 LAL 14.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 8 55.7%	DEN 54.6% LAL 60.2% +5.6%
TO %	15 13.3% 14 13.3%	DEN 16.5% LAL 12.8% −3.7%
ORB %	7 26.7% 24 23.3%	DEN 28.6% +9.1% LAL 19.5%
FTrt	5 25.9 1 27.1	DEN 24.1 LAL 33.7 +9.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 68.3% 14 63.5%	DEN 61.0% +1.5% LAL 59.5%
STL %	19 7.9% 21 7.8%	DEN 7.8% LAL 12.7% +4.9%
BLK %	21 9.0% 24 8.7%	DEN 8.9% +2.6% LAL 6.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 58.8% 8 57.6%	DEN 54.5% LAL 60.6% +6.1%
Rim FG%	7 66.2% 1 68.0%	DEN 61.8% LAL 66.7% +4.9%
Mid FG%	8 45.5% 18 42.1%	DEN 50.0% +5.6% LAL 44.4%
3P %	5 37.6% 14 36.6%	DEN 33.3% LAL 42.1% +8.8%
FT %	23 77.0% 13 78.5%	DEN 61.9% LAL 71.4% +9.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 38.3% 18 31.4%	DEN 39.1% +6.6% LAL 32.5%
Mid Att. %	13 26.1% 12 26.1%	DEN 16.1% −5.6% LAL 21.7%
3P Att. %	30 35.6% 13 42.5%	DEN 44.8% LAL 45.8% +1.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.05 and 2.05.

Game Totals	DEN	LAL
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	108	120
Rebounds	45	38
Assists	25	25
Steals	8	13
Blocks	4	3
Turnovers (Team)	18 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	17	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (3)	8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (2)	30 (3)
Field Goals	41-87	42-83
At-the-Rim FG	21-34	18-27
Midrange FG	7-14	8-18
2-Point FG	28-48	26-45
3-Point FG	13-39	16-38
Free Throws	13-21	20-28
Fast Break Pts	26	16
2nd Chance Pts	14	6
Points in Paint	52	46
Pts off Turnovers	18	30
Bench Points	36	39
Biggest Lead	0	30

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg