Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, April 4, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Kings	66%	114	125	128.9	97	99.3
	25	Hornets	34%	108	102	106.3	96	93.8

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+14

-6

105

CHA

+17

-12

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.19 59.5%

CHA

1.00 50.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Zach LaVine #8 · PG · 6'5" 200 · 30	32.5	25	63%	10	3	1	0	0	3	1	9	3-3	100%	5-12	42%	4-7	57%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	27.3	22	61%	4	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	9-10	90%	5-9	56%	1-4	25%
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 29	26.6	24	63%	11	7	0	0	0	3	7	4	6-7	86%	9-15	60%	0-1	0%
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	25.3	5	31%	3	2	1	2	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-6	17%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 25	22.7	3	75%	2	0	0	1	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%

Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	22.7	17	71%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Trey Lyles #41 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 29	20.2	12	100%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	3-4	75%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	19.2	6	75%	7	2	1	0	1	6	1	6	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 23	13.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Markelle Fultz #20 · PG · 6'4" 209 · 27	11.4	2	33%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	7.2	3	75%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 33	6.3	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jae Crowder #99 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 35	4.6	3	50%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Mason Jones #15 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jake LaRavia #33 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Bone Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	60%	44	26	4	3	6	28	10	34	19-23	83%	29-55	53%	16-36	44%

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15 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Zach LaVine #8 · PG · 6'5" 200 · 30	32.5	25	63%	10	3	1	0	0	3	1	9	3-3	100%	5-12	42%	4-7	57%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	27.3	22	61%	4	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	9-10	90%	5-9	56%	1-4	25%
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 29	26.6	24	63%	11	7	0	0	0	3	7	4	6-7	86%	9-15	60%	0-1	0%
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	25.3	5	31%	3	2	1	2	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-6	17%
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 25	22.7	3	75%	2	0	0	1	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%

Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 27	22.7	17	71%	1	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Trey Lyles #41 · PF · 6'10" 234 · 29	20.2	12	100%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	3-4	75%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	19.2	6	75%	7	2	1	0	1	6	1	6	0-1	0%	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 23	13.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	6	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Markelle Fultz #20 · PG · 6'4" 209 · 27	11.4	2	33%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	7.2	3	75%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 33	6.3	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Jae Crowder #99 · PF · 6'6" 235 · 35	4.6	3	50%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Isaiah Crawford #24 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Mason Jones #15 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jake LaRavia #33 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Bone Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	60%	44	26	4	3	6	28	10	34	19-23	83%	29-55	53%	16-36	44%

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25 Charlotte Hornets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 23	33.1	13	65%	1	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-4	25%
DaQuan Jeffries #3 · SF · 6'5" 222 · 28	32.3	8	50%	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Miles Bridges #0 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 27	27.6	22	46%	2	1	0	0	2	2	0	2	6-6	100%	5-10	50%	2-11	18%
Jusuf Nurkić #11 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	24.1	8	36%	8	3	0	1	3	4	3	5	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Seth Curry #30 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 35	22.8	9	56%	6	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%

Tidjane Salaün #31 · PF · 6'10" 207 · 20	28.9	13	46%	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	3	5-5	100%	1-5	20%	2-7	29%
Moussa Diabaté #14 · C · 6'10" 210 · 23	22.8	15	68%	11	0	0	0	2	4	3	8	3-4	75%	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Jaylen Sims #33 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 26	20.8	7	70%	1	4	0	0	3	2	0	1	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Taj Gibson #67 · C · 6'9" 232 · 40	15.8	1	17%	4	1	0	0	1	2	2	2	1-4	25%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Josh Okogie #12 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	11.9	6	60%	3	0	1	1	0	2	1	2	4-5	80%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Grant Williams #2 · PF · 6'7" 236 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Acl; Repair
Wendell Moore Jr. #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	INACTIVE
Mark Williams #5 · C · 7'1" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Thoracic; Muscle Spasm
Brandon Miller #24 · SF · 6'7" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Ligament repair
Nick Smith Jr. #8 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Damion Baugh #7 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Soreness
Tre Mann #23 · PG · 6'4" 178 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Disc; Herniation
Josh Green #10 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Soreness
LaMelo Ball #1 · PG · 6'7" 180 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	50%	45	17	2	2	12	19	11	34	28-34	82%	25-48	52%	8-35	23%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	CHA
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	CHA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

1.19 59.5%

CHA

1.00 50.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAC

59%

CHA

59%

Midrange

SAC

43%

CHA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAC

24.0

44%

67%

CHA

12.0

23%

34%

Free Throws

SAC

83%

CHA

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
Z. LaVine	25	63%	12.5 / 20
D. Sabonis	24	63%	12.0 / 19
D. DeRozan	22	61%	11.0 / 18
M. Monk	17	71%	8.5 / 12
T. Lyles	12	100%	6.0 / 6
J. Valančiūnas	6	75%	3.0 / 4
K. Murray	5	31%	2.5 / 8
K. Ellis	3	75%	1.5 / 2
I. Jones	3	75%	1.5 / 2
D. McDermott	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Crowder	3	50%	1.5 / 3
M. Fultz	2	33%	1.0 / 3
D. Carter	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hornets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Bridges	22	46%	11.0 / 24
M. Diabaté	15	68%	7.5 / 11
K. Simpson	13	65%	6.5 / 10
T. Salaün	13	46%	6.5 / 14
S. Curry	9	56%	4.5 / 8
D. Jeffries	8	50%	4.0 / 8
J. Nurkić	8	36%	4.0 / 11
J. Sims	7	70%	3.5 / 5
J. Okogie	6	60%	3.0 / 5
T. Gibson	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 115.9 29 106.7	SAC 128.9 +22.6 CHA 106.3
Pace	19 98.9 23 98.2	SAC 99.3 +5.5 CHA 93.8
Avg. Poss. Time	15 14.4 8 14.9	SAC 14.5 −0.9 CHA 15.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	15 54.8% 30 50.3%	SAC 58.2% +13.6% CHA 44.6%
TO %	6 12.6% 28 15.1%	SAC 7.3% −4.4% CHA 11.7%
ORB %	16 25.4% 8 26.5%	SAC 22.7% CHA 24.4% +1.7%
FTrt	21 23.5 27 22.2	SAC 25.3 CHA 41.0 +15.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	22 61.5% 16 63.5%	SAC 57.8% +6.3% CHA 51.5%
STL %	23 7.6% 24 7.5%	SAC 4.1% +2.0% CHA 2.1%
BLK %	23 8.8% 18 9.2%	SAC 6.3% +2.7% CHA 3.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 30 52.5%	SAC 59.5% +9.5% CHA 50.0%
Rim FG%	2 67.6% 30 59.7%	SAC 59.4% +0.8% CHA 58.6%
Mid FG%	4 46.0% 29 38.5%	SAC 43.5% +1.4% CHA 42.1%
3P %	19 35.7% 28 33.9%	SAC 44.4% +21.5% CHA 22.9%
FT %	4 80.6% 14 78.3%	SAC 82.6% +0.2% CHA 82.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	28 26.8% 19 30.7%	SAC 35.2% +0.2% CHA 34.9%
Mid Att. %	29 34.1% 16 26.3%	SAC 25.3% CHA 22.9% −2.4%
3P Att. %	23 39.1% 11 43.0%	SAC 39.6% CHA 42.2% +2.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.29 and 2.29.

Game Totals	SAC	CHA
Possessions	97	96
Possession Minutes	23.4	24.6
Points	125	102
Rebounds	44	45
Assists	26	17
Steals	4	2
Blocks	3	2
Turnovers (Team)	6 (2)	12 (1)
Fouls	28	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (4)	11 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	34 (1)
Field Goals	45-91	33-83
At-the-Rim FG	19-32	17-29
Midrange FG	10-23	8-19
2-Point FG	29-55	25-48
3-Point FG	16-36	8-35
Free Throws	19-23	28-34
Fast Break Pts	16	6
2nd Chance Pts	19	13
Points in Paint	50	42
Pts off Turnovers	10	5
Bench Points	46	42
Biggest Lead	30	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg