Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 4, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Hornets | 34% | 108 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Celtics | 82% | 121 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Pistons | 68% | 115 | 117 |
 | 24 | Raptors | 32% | 108 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Bulls | 60% | 117 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Thunder | 65% | 114 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pelicans | 13% | 102 | 108 |
 | 6 | Lakers | 87% | 118 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Mavericks | 22% | 106 | 91 |
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Thursday, April 3, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Magic | 80% | 112 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Bucks | 70% | 116 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 6 | Timberwolves | 81% | 113 | 105 |
 | 26 | Nets | 19% | 100 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 12 | Heat | 40% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 111 | 112 |
| 24 | Raptors | 42% | 108 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 47% | 112 | 123 |
| 7 | Lakers | 53% | 113 | 116 |
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Knicks | 24% | 109 | 105 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 76% | 119 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 23% | 107 | 105 |
| 9 | Pacers | 77% | 118 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kings | 73% | 122 | 111 |
| 28 | Wizards | 27% | 113 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Heat | 21% | 103 | 124 |
| 2 | Celtics | 79% | 115 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 20% | 107 | 105 |
| 10 | Rockets | 80% | 119 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_2_1_'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23E03A3E;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_2_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M312.9,93.7c-28.8-30.8-70.7-48.4-115-48.4c-3.8,0-7.6,0.1-11.3,0.5c-71.5,4.8-106,55.7-109.6,61.3%20c-5.4,6.7-50.7,68-20.3,152.6l0.6,1.8C57.6,262.4,87.2,353,193,353l0,0c5.6,0,11.5-0.3,17.4-0.8c79.1-6.9,137.8-65.3,142.8-141.9%20C356.3,166.2,342,124.8,312.9,93.7'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M305.4,100.6c-29.7-31.7-73.5-48-118.3-44.9C116,60.5,84.4,113.4,84.4,113.4s56.4,17.1,64.1,19.5%20c5.4,1.6,40.4,10.4,56.3,19c3.3,1.8,6.5,5.5,9.7,8.8c2.4,2.5,4.6,4.9,6.9,6.8c4.2,3.4,8.2,6.3,12.2,9.2%20c9.7,7.1,18.2,13.1,22.2,22.4c3.4,8,3.5,16.4,0.5,24.1c-2.7,6.7-8,12.8-14.4,17c0.7-3.4,1.5-8.3-3.1-11.3%20c-2.1-1.3-12.6-3.8-19.7-4.6c-3.4-0.3-41.5-2.1-94.3,26.4c15.8-21.2,27.2-24.7,27.2-24.7c-0.5-2.5-85.5,31.9-85.5,31.9%20s29.4,94.1,142.8,84.1c73.9-6.5,128.9-60.6,133.7-132.7C345.8,168.2,332.4,129.5,305.4,100.6%20M281.8,233.8%20c10.7-23.6,5.4-49.2-12.8-69.5c-5-5.6-11.3-9.5-17.3-13.1c-3.9-2.4-8-4.9-11.6-7.9c-1.7-1.4-3.1-3.3-4.6-5.2%20c-1.8-2.5-3.9-5.4-6.9-7.4c-16.7-12.2-36.5-16.5-55.9-22.2c-9.2-2.7-18.1-4.7-26.5-7.7c10.5-7.2,23.8-12,38.4-13.3%20c4.6-0.5,9.1-0.7,13.7-0.7c43.1,0,80.5,21.6,100.5,58c19.9,36.3,18.7,80.4-3.4,115.2c-22.7,35.7-62.9,54.6-108.4,50.8%20c-27.2-2.2-56.3-16.6-65.2-32c5.5-3.4,55.2-29.7,89.3-19.1c9.7,0-5.8,23.7-5.8,23.7S261.6,278.4,281.8,233.8'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M197.7,162.3c-18.2,0.7-35.1-21.3-49.1-6.8c2.7,0.7,8.3-1.4,9.1,1.1C150.5,185,197.3,192.4,197.7,162.3'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 15 | Hawks | 40% | 116 | 118 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 60% | 120 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Spurs | 54% | 114 | 113 |
| 26 | Nuggets | 46% | 113 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pistons | 21% | 107 | 103 |
| 1 | Thunder | 79% | 119 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pelicans | 10% | 100 | 98 |
| 4 | Clippers | 90% | 119 | 114 |
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 41% | 115 | 127 |
| 16 | Hawks | 59% | 118 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 76ers | 19% | 103 | 91 |
| 13 | Knicks | 81% | 116 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Suns | 39% | 111 | 123 |
| 19 | Bucks | 61% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 52% | 110 | 116 |
| 23 | Spurs | 48% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 42% | 114 | 118 |
| 20 | Bulls | 58% | 117 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 46% | 117 | 134 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 54% | 118 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Timberwolves | 54% | 112 | 140 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 46% | 111 | 139 |
Monday, March 31, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 48% | 111 | 106 |
| 27 | Hornets | 52% | 112 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kings | 39% | 115 | 109 |
| 10 | Pacers | 61% | 119 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Clippers | 61% | 106 | 96 |
| 14 | Magic | 39% | 102 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 69% | 114 | 120 |
| 25 | Wizards | 31% | 107 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 58% | 118 | 117 |
| 8 | Grizzlies | 42% | 115 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 15% | 107 | 117 |
| 1 | Thunder | 85% | 122 | 145 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 26% | 103 | 113 |
| 18 | Mavericks | 74% | 112 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 40% | 109 | 98 |
| 7 | Lakers | 60% | 112 | 104 |
Sunday, March 30, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Clippers | 37% | 110 | 122 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 63% | 114 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 34% | 109 | 93 |
| 10 | Knicks | 66% | 115 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 43% | 115 | 145 |
| 14 | Bucks | 57% | 117 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 34% | 107 | 104 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 66% | 113 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 52% | 107 | 94 |
| 30 | Pelicans | 48% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 69% | 119 | 148 |
| 23 | Spurs | 31% | 112 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 64% | 111 | 127 |
| 29 | 76ers | 36% | 106 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 57% | 114 | 148 |
| 15 | Suns | 43% | 112 | 109 |
Saturday, March 29, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kings | 49% | 108 | 91 |
| 17 | Magic | 51% | 109 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Nets | 43% | 107 | 115 |
| 27 | Wizards | 57% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Heat | 66% | 112 | 118 |
| 25 | 76ers | 34% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 46% | 116 | 120 |
| 20 | Bulls | 54% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 44% | 115 | 134 |
| 9 | Grizzlies | 56% | 117 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 25% | 109 | 111 |
| 1 | Thunder | 75% | 119 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 74% | 119 | 121 |
| 23 | Spurs | 26% | 109 | 111 |
Friday, March 28, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 63% | 116 | 122 |
| 18 | Pistons | 37% | 112 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 79% | 112 | 132 |
| 25 | Nets | 21% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 37% | 106 | 97 |
| 24 | Raptors | 63% | 111 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Knicks | 51% | 111 | 116 |
| 15 | Bucks | 49% | 110 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Suns | 30% | 108 | 109 |
| 5 | Timberwolves | 70% | 116 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 85% | 119 | 111 |
| 30 | Pelicans | 15% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 13% | 109 | 93 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 87% | 126 | 129 |
Thursday, March 27, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Spurs | 19% | 111 | 116 |
| 4 | Cavaliers | 81% | 124 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 40% | 105 | 101 |
| 14 | Magic | 60% | 108 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pacers | 71% | 122 | 162 |
| 26 | Wizards | 29% | 114 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 45% | 112 | 112 |
| 15 | Heat | 55% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 52% | 117 | 117 |
| 20 | Bulls | 48% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grizzlies | 23% | 110 | 104 |
| 1 | Thunder | 77% | 121 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rockets | 81% | 120 | 121 |
| 29 | Jazz | 19% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 107 |
| 13 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 128 |
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 119 |
| 24 | 76ers | 62% | 117 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 48% | 104 | 116 |
| 25 | Nets | 52% | 105 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Lakers | 46% | 114 | 120 |
| 10 | Pacers | 54% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Clippers | 59% | 111 | 126 |
| 12 | Knicks | 41% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 29% | 109 | 117 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 71% | 117 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 64% | 116 | 132 |
| 14 | Suns | 36% | 111 | 102 |
Tuesday, March 25, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 58% | 107 | 111 |
| 24 | Hornets | 42% | 104 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Spurs | 37% | 111 | 96 |
| 14 | Pistons | 63% | 116 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Warriors | 58% | 108 | 86 |
| 15 | Heat | 42% | 105 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Mavericks | 23% | 107 | 113 |
| 12 | Knicks | 77% | 118 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 31% | 112 | 114 |
| 6 | Rockets | 69% | 119 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Grizzlies | 77% | 124 | 140 |
| 28 | Jazz | 23% | 113 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 68% | 118 | 122 |
| 20 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 111 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 78% | 118 | 121 |
| 17 | Kings | 22% | 107 | 105 |
Monday, March 24, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Timberwolves | 51% | 115 | 103 |
| 10 | Pacers | 49% | 114 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 53% | 105 | 106 |
| 16 | Magic | 47% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Raptors | 45% | 110 | 112 |
| 27 | Wizards | 55% | 112 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Mavericks | 55% | 109 | 120 |
| 24 | Nets | 45% | 107 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 76ers | 56% | 112 | 99 |
| 30 | Pelicans | 44% | 110 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 49% | 117 | 129 |
| 20 | Nuggets | 51% | 118 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bucks | 44% | 111 | 106 |
| 12 | Suns | 56% | 113 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 62% | 117 | 113 |
| 14 | Kings | 38% | 112 | 95 |
Sunday, March 23, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pelicans | 21% | 104 | 130 |
| 12 | Pistons | 79% | 116 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 84% | 126 | 120 |
| 29 | Jazz | 16% | 111 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 76ers | 35% | 114 | 119 |
| 16 | Hawks | 65% | 119 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hornets | 36% | 106 | 105 |
| 17 | Heat | 64% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Spurs | 55% | 114 | 123 |
| 27 | Raptors | 45% | 112 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 75% | 117 | 129 |
| 22 | Trail Blazers | 25% | 108 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nuggets | 31% | 108 | 116 |
| 6 | Rockets | 69% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 53% | 111 | 103 |
| 4 | Clippers | 47% | 110 | 101 |
Saturday, March 22, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 28% | 107 | 103 |
| 11 | Pacers | 72% | 116 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 62% | 117 | 115 |
| 18 | Hawks | 38% | 113 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 12% | 104 | 103 |
| 9 | Knicks | 88% | 121 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bucks | 48% | 111 | 114 |
| 17 | Kings | 52% | 112 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 31% | 111 | 146 |
| 10 | Lakers | 69% | 119 | 115 |