Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Wizards	17%	109	98	102.1	96	93.1
	10	Pacers	83%	123	104	108.3	96	99.0

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+17

-11

102

IND

+18

-7

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.96 48.0%

IND

0.97 48.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	43.0	13	33%	4	4	0	1	3	4	0	4	1-3	33%	3-10	30%	2-9	22%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	35.0	20	77%	13	0	0	0	0	3	4	9	0-0	-	4-7	57%	4-6	67%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	32.2	20	56%	12	6	0	3	3	2	3	9	3-3	100%	7-11	64%	1-6	17%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.7	9	50%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	1-4	25%
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	19.1	19	63%	1	3	0	0	2	4	1	0	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	3-7	43%

Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	31.5	2	20%	5	3	1	1	2	5	0	5	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	25.1	7	44%	6	0	0	3	0	0	3	3	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	24.6	8	44%	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	6.8	0	0%	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Surgery
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	48%	50	18	2	8	11	27	13	37	11-15	73%	27-52	52%	11-39	28%

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28 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #8 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	43.0	13	33%	4	4	0	1	3	4	0	4	1-3	33%	3-10	30%	2-9	22%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 24	35.0	20	77%	13	0	0	0	0	3	4	9	0-0	-	4-7	57%	4-6	67%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 20	32.2	20	56%	12	6	0	3	3	2	3	9	3-3	100%	7-11	64%	1-6	17%
Kyshawn George #18 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.7	9	50%	4	2	1	0	0	3	0	4	0-1	0%	3-5	60%	1-4	25%
Jordan Poole #13 · SG · 6'4" 194 · 26	19.1	19	63%	1	3	0	0	2	4	1	0	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	3-7	43%

Colby Jones #1 · SG · 6'6" 207 · 23	31.5	2	20%	5	3	1	1	2	5	0	5	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
JT Thor #21 · PF · 6'9" 203 · 23	25.1	7	44%	6	0	0	3	0	0	3	3	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
AJ Johnson #5 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 20	24.6	8	44%	1	0	0	0	1	5	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 32	6.8	0	0%	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Malcolm Brogdon #15 · PG · 6'5" 229 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Richaun Holmes #22 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Jaylen Martin #4 · SF · 6'6" 216 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; Surgery
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Saddiq Bey #14 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; ACL Surgery
Khris Middleton #32 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	48%	50	18	2	8	11	27	13	37	11-15	73%	27-52	52%	11-39	28%

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10 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Myles Turner #33 · C · 6'11" 250 · 29	35.0	14	41%	11	1	0	5	2	0	4	7	5-8	63%	3-6	50%	1-7	14%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 31	34.3	24	63%	10	3	2	0	0	1	5	5	1-1	100%	10-18	56%	1-1	100%
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 25	31.4	22	73%	1	6	1	0	1	0	0	1	9-11	82%	2-4	50%	3-7	43%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 25	31.1	4	25%	7	4	1	0	2	2	2	5	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	0-2	0%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	28.5	7	50%	6	1	1	0	1	3	0	6	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%

Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	26.9	17	57%	4	2	0	0	0	3	1	3	6-7	86%	4-7	57%	1-5	20%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 27	20.3	12	46%	7	3	0	0	0	1	1	6	4-6	67%	1-4	25%	2-6	33%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 33	16.9	2	20%	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 20	6.8	0	0%	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	5.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	3.7	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Enrique Freeman #8 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
James Johnson #16 · PF · 6'8" 240 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	49%	49	21	7	5	7	16	13	36	29-37	78%	24-52	46%	9-35	26%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	IND
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	IND

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

0.96 48.0%

IND

0.97 48.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

59%

IND

53%

Midrange

WAS

43%

IND

36%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

16.5

28%

42%

IND

13.5

26%

39%

Free Throws

WAS

73%

IND

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Champagnie	20	77%	10.0 / 13
A. Sarr	20	56%	10.0 / 18
J. Poole	19	63%	9.5 / 15
B. Carrington	13	33%	6.5 / 20
K. George	9	50%	4.5 / 9
A. Johnson	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Thor	7	44%	3.5 / 8
C. Jones	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	24	63%	12.0 / 19
T. Haliburton	22	73%	11.0 / 15
B. Mathurin	17	57%	8.5 / 15
M. Turner	14	41%	7.0 / 17
O. Toppin	12	46%	6.0 / 13
A. Nesmith	7	50%	3.5 / 7
A. Nembhard	4	25%	2.0 / 8
T. McConnell	2	20%	1.0 / 5
T. Bryant	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Walker	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	30 105.8 9 115.3	WAS 102.1 IND 108.3 +6.3
Pace	4 101.8 6 100.9	WAS 93.1 IND 99.0 +5.9
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 24 14.0	WAS 15.5 IND 14.5 −0.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 51.2% 4 56.2%	WAS 47.8% +4.7% IND 43.1%
TO %	27 14.6% 3 12.0%	WAS 12.5% IND 8.0% −4.5%
ORB %	25 22.7% 29 21.3%	WAS 26.5% +0.5% IND 26.0%
FTrt	26 22.9 17 24.1	WAS 16.5 IND 42.5 +26.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	12 63.7% 8 67.1%	WAS 47.4% IND 63.6% +16.2%
STL %	25 7.4% 10 8.3%	WAS 2.1% IND 7.3% +5.2%
BLK %	12 9.6% 8 10.2%	WAS 15.4% +5.8% IND 9.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	29 53.2% 7 57.6%	WAS 48.0% IND 48.6% +0.6%
Rim FG%	17 63.7% 6 66.7%	WAS 58.6% +5.3% IND 53.3%
Mid FG%	30 38.0% 6 45.8%	WAS 43.5% +7.1% IND 36.4%
3P %	29 33.5% 9 36.8%	WAS 28.2% +2.5% IND 25.7%
FT %	16 77.8% 9 78.9%	WAS 73.3% IND 78.4% +5.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.5% 17 31.4%	WAS 31.9% IND 34.5% +2.6%
Mid Att. %	11 25.9% 24 28.6%	WAS 25.3% −0.0% IND 25.3%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 21 40.0%	WAS 42.9% +2.6% IND 40.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	IND
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	24.7	23.3
Points	98	104
Rebounds	50	49
Assists	18	21
Steals	2	7
Blocks	8	5
Turnovers (Team)	11 (3)	7 (2)
Fouls	27	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (4)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (3)	36 (1)
Field Goals	38-91	33-87
At-the-Rim FG	17-29	16-30
Midrange FG	10-23	8-22
2-Point FG	27-52	24-52
3-Point FG	11-39	9-35
Free Throws	11-15	29-37
Fast Break Pts	3	17
2nd Chance Pts	11	18
Points in Paint	46	36
Pts off Turnovers	9	14
Bench Points	17	33
Biggest Lead	16	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg