Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 25, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Spurs	23%	109	117	121.9	96	90.8
	1	Thunder	77%	119	102	104.1	98	103.8

Prediction updated: Dec 25, 2025 07:26 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+10

-12

OKC

+20

-7

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.24 62.2%

OKC

0.93 46.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	34.1	5	36%	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	3	2-3	67%	0-1	0%	1-5	20%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.9	29	73%	4	3	1	1	1	3	2	2	2-2	100%	9-15	60%	3-4	75%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	31.6	19	73%	4	7	1	0	4	4	2	2	3-5	60%	8-9	89%	0-2	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	30.4	15	58%	6	1	0	0	1	0	1	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-7	43%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	21.6	6	75%	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-

Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	25.8	19	68%	11	2	1	1	3	2	1	10	5-5	100%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.4	12	67%	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	20.2	0	0%	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	17.0	9	56%	7	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	0-2	0%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	1.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	1.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	49	20	3	4	12	16	10	39	16-21	76%	34-55	62%	11-29	38%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	34.1	5	36%	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	3	2-3	67%	0-1	0%	1-5	20%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.9	29	73%	4	3	1	1	1	3	2	2	2-2	100%	9-15	60%	3-4	75%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	31.6	19	73%	4	7	1	0	4	4	2	2	3-5	60%	8-9	89%	0-2	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	30.4	15	58%	6	1	0	0	1	0	1	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-7	43%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	21.6	6	75%	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-

Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	25.8	19	68%	11	2	1	1	3	2	1	10	5-5	100%	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.4	12	67%	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	20.2	0	0%	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	17.0	9	56%	7	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	0-2	0%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	1.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	1.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	1.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	49	20	3	4	12	16	10	39	16-21	76%	34-55	62%	11-29	38%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	36.1	22	50%	6	4	1	0	0	2	1	5	7-8	88%	6-13	46%	1-6	17%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	30.6	10	50%	12	2	0	1	1	3	1	11	0-2	0%	5-7	71%	0-2	0%
Jalen Williams #8 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 25	29.0	12	40%	2	6	2	0	1	4	2	0	1-4	25%	4-11	36%	1-2	50%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 27	28.6	8	50%	4	3	0	2	1	4	2	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	23.5	13	72%	12	3	1	0	1	1	3	9	3-4	75%	5-7	71%	0-0	-

Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	21.3	5	31%	4	1	0	1	0	1	4	0	2-3	67%	0-3	0%	1-4	25%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	19.6	12	40%	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	2-12	17%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	16.8	8	67%	5	2	2	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	15.1	5	63%	1	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	14.3	5	36%	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	1.7	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	Inactive – Concussion Protocol
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	46%	48	23	7	6	7	18	16	32	17-25	68%	26-51	51%	11-44	25%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	OKC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.24 62.2%

OKC

0.93 46.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

67%

OKC

58%

Midrange

SAS

56%

OKC

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

16.5

38%

57%

OKC

16.5

25%

38%

Free Throws

SAS

76%

OKC

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	29	73%	14.5 / 20
S. Castle	19	73%	9.5 / 13
V. Wembanyama	19	68%	9.5 / 14
H. Barnes	15	58%	7.5 / 13
D. Harper	12	67%	6.0 / 9
K. Johnson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
L. Kornet	6	75%	3.0 / 4
D. Vassell	5	36%	2.5 / 7
J. McLaughlin	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. Champagnie	0	-	0.0 / 3
L. Waters	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	22	50%	11.0 / 22
I. Hartenstein	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Williams	12	40%	6.0 / 15
A. Caruso	12	40%	6.0 / 15
C. Holmgren	10	50%	5.0 / 10
L. Dort	8	50%	4.0 / 8
K. Williams	8	67%	4.0 / 6
C. Wallace	5	31%	2.5 / 8
I. Joe	5	63%	2.5 / 4
A. Wiggins	5	36%	2.5 / 7
B. Carlson	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 7 117.6	SAS 121.9 +17.8 OKC 104.1
Pace	13 100.5 15 100.3	SAS 90.8 OKC 103.8 +13.0
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 20 14.1	SAS 15.9 OKC 13.9 −2.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 4 56.1%	SAS 60.1% +15.4% OKC 44.7%
TO %	4 12.5% 1 11.8%	SAS 12.2% OKC 6.2% −6.0%
ORB %	10 26.2% 28 22.3%	SAS 23.8% OKC 29.1% +5.3%
FTrt	12 27.3 17 26.1	SAS 25.0 OKC 26.3 +1.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 25 59.8%	SAS 44.4% OKC 62.2% +17.8%
STL %	24 7.5% 4 9.6%	SAS 3.1% OKC 7.1% +4.0%
BLK %	10 10.0% 2 11.0%	SAS 7.8% OKC 10.9% +3.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 4 58.5%	SAS 62.2% +15.8% OKC 46.4%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 11 65.2%	SAS 66.7% +9.0% OKC 57.7%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 1 47.6%	SAS 56.0% +12.0% OKC 44.0%
3P %	15 35.9% 9 36.5%	SAS 37.9% +12.9% OKC 25.0%
FT %	12 78.7% 3 81.7%	SAS 76.2% +8.2% OKC 68.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 16 31.3%	SAS 35.7% +8.3% OKC 27.4%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 15 26.1%	SAS 29.8% OKC 26.3% −3.4%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 13 42.6%	SAS 34.5% OKC 46.3% +11.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	OKC
Possessions	96	98
Possession Minutes	25.4	22.6
Points	117	102
Rebounds	49	48
Assists	20	23
Steals	3	7
Blocks	4	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (1)	7 (0)
Fouls	16	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (0)	16 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (4)	32 (1)
Field Goals	45-84	37-95
At-the-Rim FG	20-30	15-26
Midrange FG	14-25	11-25
2-Point FG	34-55	26-51
3-Point FG	11-29	11-44
Free Throws	16-21	17-25
Fast Break Pts	17	7
2nd Chance Pts	18	24
Points in Paint	52	46
Pts off Turnovers	11	13
Bench Points	43	37
Biggest Lead	17	8

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg