Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, December 25, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 6 | Knicks | 57% | 120 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 1 | Thunder | 77% | 119 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Mavericks | 22% | 109 | 116 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 11 | Lakers | 41% | 112 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Timberwolves | 54% | 118 | 138 |
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Tuesday, December 23, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Hornets | 66% | 121 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25 | Nets | 26% | 109 | 114 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Bulls | 41% | 122 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Pelicans | 21% | 115 | 118 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 79% | 125 | 141 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Bucks | 52% | 112 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Raptors | 38% | 110 | 112 |
 | 11 | Heat | 62% | 114 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nuggets | 61% | 120 | 130 |
| 21 | Mavericks | 39% | 116 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Knicks | 34% | 110 | 104 |
| 7 | Timberwolves | 66% | 116 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 60% | 117 | 110 |
| 6 | Spurs | 40% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 42% | 110 | 108 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 30 | Jazz | 33% | 117 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Magic | 51% | 115 | 110 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 8 | Pistons | 71% | 116 | 136 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 68% | 113 | 108 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 13 | Clippers | 32% | 108 | 128 |
Monday, December 22, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Hornets | 25% | 114 | 132 |
| 5 | Cavaliers | 75% | 123 | 139 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Pacers | 17% | 107 | 95 |
 | 4 | Celtics | 83% | 119 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Mavericks | 54% | 117 | 113 |
| 23 | Pelicans | 46% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Jazz | 20% | 118 | 112 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 80% | 129 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 19% | 108 | 103 |
| 1 | Thunder | 81% | 119 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 28% | 110 | 97 |
| 3 | Warriors | 72% | 117 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pistons | 61% | 118 | 110 |
| 22 | Blazers | 39% | 115 | 102 |
Sunday, December 21, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bulls | 39% | 119 | 152 |
| 14 | Hawks | 61% | 122 | 150 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raptors | 51% | 112 | 81 |
| 25 | Nets | 49% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Heat | 33% | 114 | 125 |
| 5 | Knicks | 67% | 119 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Spurs | 89% | 126 | 124 |
| 30 | Wizards | 11% | 110 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 21% | 108 | 100 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 79% | 119 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 85% | 118 | 124 |
| 29 | Kings | 15% | 104 | 125 |
Saturday, December 20, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 55% | 118 | 115 |
| 9 | Nuggets | 45% | 117 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Pacers | 44% | 115 | 109 |
| 22 | Pelicans | 56% | 117 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 53% | 112 | 112 |
| 17 | Raptors | 47% | 111 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Mavericks | 52% | 114 | 114 |
| 21 | 76ers | 48% | 113 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hornets | 30% | 112 | 86 |
| 10 | Pistons | 70% | 118 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 19% | 111 | 130 |
| 16 | Grizzlies | 81% | 122 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Suns | 25% | 107 | 116 |
| 3 | Warriors | 75% | 116 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 75% | 122 | 128 |
| 30 | Jazz | 25% | 114 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Blazers | 58% | 116 | 98 |
| 28 | Kings | 42% | 114 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 46% | 112 | 88 |
| 11 | Clippers | 54% | 113 | 103 |
Friday, December 19, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 35% | 113 | 116 |
| 5 | Knicks | 65% | 118 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 26% | 110 | 116 |
| 4 | Celtics | 74% | 118 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 36% | 116 | 136 |
| 15 | Cavaliers | 64% | 121 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 52% | 118 | 126 |
| 12 | Hawks | 48% | 117 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thunder | 61% | 114 | 107 |
| 6 | Timberwolves | 39% | 111 | 112 |
Thursday, December 18, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 58% | 117 | 126 |
| 22 | Hornets | 42% | 115 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 71% | 120 | 114 |
| 26 | Pacers | 29% | 113 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Heat | 64% | 117 | 106 |
| 25 | Nets | 36% | 112 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 77% | 120 | 128 |
| 24 | Pelicans | 23% | 110 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Clippers | 11% | 100 | 101 |
| 1 | Thunder | 89% | 116 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 11% | 110 | 94 |
| 5 | Spurs | 89% | 126 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Raptors | 63% | 113 | 111 |
| 27 | Bucks | 37% | 109 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pistons | 61% | 116 | 114 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 39% | 112 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Magic | 34% | 115 | 115 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 66% | 120 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 65% | 116 | 98 |
| 16 | Suns | 35% | 110 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lakers | 79% | 123 | 143 |
| 30 | Jazz | 21% | 112 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 33% | 113 | 133 |
| 23 | Blazers | 67% | 119 | 134 |
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 39% | 111 | 116 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 61% | 114 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cavaliers | 66% | 123 | 111 |
| 21 | Bulls | 34% | 117 | 127 |
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spurs | 41% | 117 | 113 |
| 5 | Knicks | 59% | 120 | 124 |
Monday, December 15, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 35% | 111 | 112 |
| 5 | Celtics | 65% | 116 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 37% | 113 | 106 |
| 9 | Heat | 63% | 117 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Mavericks | 54% | 120 | 133 |
| 28 | Jazz | 46% | 118 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rockets | 57% | 118 | 125 |
| 11 | Nuggets | 43% | 116 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Grizzlies | 39% | 112 | 121 |
| 8 | Clippers | 61% | 116 | 103 |
Sunday, December 14, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 24% | 111 | 108 |
| 21 | Pacers | 76% | 120 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Hornets | 18% | 111 | 119 |
| 6 | Cavaliers | 82% | 123 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 76ers | 43% | 112 | 117 |
| 15 | Hawks | 57% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Bucks | 45% | 111 | 82 |
| 23 | Nets | 55% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 23% | 108 | 103 |
| 10 | Timberwolves | 77% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pelicans | 44% | 119 | 114 |
| 20 | Bulls | 56% | 122 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 47% | 114 | 116 |
| 14 | Suns | 53% | 115 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Warriors | 72% | 120 | 131 |
| 24 | Blazers | 28% | 113 | 136 |
Saturday, December 13, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 53% | 114 | 132 |
| 13 | Magic | 47% | 113 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spurs | 22% | 108 | 111 |
| 1 | Thunder | 78% | 118 | 109 |
Friday, December 12, 2025
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 55% | 116 | 129 |
| 28 | Hornets | 45% | 114 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cavaliers | 88% | 127 | 130 |
| 30 | Wizards | 12% | 112 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 40% | 110 | 105 |
| 19 | 76ers | 60% | 113 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 40% | 113 | 115 |
| 9 | Pistons | 60% | 116 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 26% | 115 | 130 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 74% | 123 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Nets | 36% | 111 | 111 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 64% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Timberwolves | 35% | 110 | 127 |
| 4 | Warriors | 65% | 115 | 120 |