Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	1	Thunder	60%	117	110	117.0	94	96.9
	5	Spurs	40%	113	130	136.8	95	92.2

Prediction updated: Dec 24, 2025 01:34 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+11

-13

SAS

+12

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.20 59.8%

SAS

1.33 66.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	35.5	33	69%	3	8	0	0	2	2	1	2	4-5	80%	13-18	72%	1-4	25%
Jalen Williams #8 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 25	31.5	17	47%	6	8	2	0	3	3	1	5	0-0	-	7-14	50%	1-4	25%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	27.1	7	35%	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 27	26.4	15	94%	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	5-8	63%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	25.6	8	57%	12	0	0	0	3	5	5	7	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	25.2	4	33%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-4	0%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	18.9	2	33%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	15.8	8	100%	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	13.3	10	100%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	11.1	3	150%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	3.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	3.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	3.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive – Concussion Protocol
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	60%	36	23	5	1	13	17	9	27	6-7	86%	34-55	62%	12-30	40%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	35.5	33	69%	3	8	0	0	2	2	1	2	4-5	80%	13-18	72%	1-4	25%
Jalen Williams #8 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 25	31.5	17	47%	6	8	2	0	3	3	1	5	0-0	-	7-14	50%	1-4	25%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	27.1	7	35%	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 27	26.4	15	94%	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	5-8	63%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	25.6	8	57%	12	0	0	0	3	5	5	7	0-0	-	4-7	57%	0-0	-

Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	25.2	4	33%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-4	0%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	18.9	2	33%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	15.8	8	100%	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	13.3	10	100%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	11.1	3	150%	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	3.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	3.2	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	3.2	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive – Concussion Protocol
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	60%	36	23	5	1	13	17	9	27	6-7	86%	34-55	62%	12-30	40%

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5 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.7	6	27%	3	9	0	0	0	2	0	3	0-4	0%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	27.9	24	80%	0	3	1	0	2	4	0	0	6-6	100%	3-6	50%	4-6	67%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	27.6	17	57%	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	3-8	38%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	25.8	20	83%	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	6-6	100%	4-5	80%	2-4	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	25.7	8	100%	5	3	1	2	0	0	4	1	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-0	-

Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	23.1	12	60%	5	3	0	0	3	3	3	2	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	1-1	100%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	22.2	25	78%	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	5-9	56%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	22.1	4	40%	10	0	1	1	3	0	0	10	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.3	4	67%	3	10	5	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	2.3	1	50%	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	2.3	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	2.3	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	2.3	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	2.3	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	130	66%	34	34	10	3	9	13	10	24	18-24	75%	32-48	67%	16-36	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.20 59.8%

SAS

1.33 66.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

88%

SAS

89%

Midrange

OKC

50%

SAS

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

18.0

40%

60%

SAS

24.0

44%

67%

Free Throws

OKC

86%

SAS

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	33	69%	16.5 / 24
J. Williams	17	47%	8.5 / 18
L. Dort	15	94%	7.5 / 8
K. Williams	10	100%	5.0 / 5
I. Hartenstein	8	57%	4.0 / 7
I. Joe	8	100%	4.0 / 4
C. Holmgren	7	35%	3.5 / 10
C. Wallace	4	33%	2.0 / 6
A. Wiggins	3	150%	1.5 / 1
C. Youngblood	3	150%	1.5 / 1
A. Caruso	2	33%	1.0 / 3
B. Barnhizer	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	25	78%	12.5 / 16
S. Castle	24	80%	12.0 / 15
H. Barnes	20	83%	10.0 / 12
D. Vassell	17	57%	8.5 / 15
V. Wembanyama	12	60%	6.0 / 10
L. Kornet	8	100%	4.0 / 4
D. Fox	6	27%	3.0 / 11
J. Champagnie	4	40%	2.0 / 5
D. Harper	4	67%	2.0 / 3
L. Waters	3	150%	1.5 / 1
C. Bryant	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. McLaughlin	2	100%	1.0 / 1
B. Biyombo	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Olynyk	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 3 118.9	OKC 117.0 SAS 136.8 +19.8
Pace	15 100.3 13 100.5	OKC 96.9 +4.7 SAS 92.2
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 18 14.2	OKC 14.9 −0.8 SAS 15.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 7 55.9%	OKC 61.2% SAS 66.7% +5.5%
TO %	1 11.8% 4 12.5%	OKC 14.6% SAS 8.7% −5.9%
ORB %	28 22.3% 10 26.2%	OKC 27.3% +0.3% SAS 27.0%
FTrt	17 26.1 12 27.3	OKC 8.2 SAS 28.6 +20.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 13 64.6%	OKC 50.0% SAS 70.8% +20.8%
STL %	4 9.6% 24 7.5%	OKC 5.3% SAS 10.5% +5.2%
BLK %	2 11.0% 10 10.0%	OKC 2.1% SAS 5.5% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 6 58.1%	OKC 59.8% SAS 66.3% +6.5%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 9 65.8%	OKC 88.2% SAS 89.3% +1.1%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 5 45.1%	OKC 50.0% +15.0% SAS 35.0%
3P %	9 36.5% 15 35.9%	OKC 40.0% SAS 44.4% +4.4%
FT %	3 81.7% 12 78.7%	OKC 85.7% +10.7% SAS 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 7 34.4%	OKC 20.0% SAS 33.3% +13.3%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 7 23.4%	OKC 44.7% SAS 23.8% −20.9%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 15 42.2%	OKC 35.3% SAS 42.9% +7.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	SAS
Possessions	94	95
Possession Minutes	23.3	24.7
Points	110	130
Rebounds	36	34
Assists	23	34
Steals	5	10
Blocks	1	3
Turnovers (Team)	13 (2)	9 (0)
Fouls	17	13
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	10 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (1)	24 (4)
Field Goals	46-85	48-84
At-the-Rim FG	15-17	25-28
Midrange FG	19-38	7-20
2-Point FG	34-55	32-48
3-Point FG	12-30	16-36
Free Throws	6-7	18-24
Fast Break Pts	5	19
2nd Chance Pts	9	15
Points in Paint	48	60
Pts off Turnovers	11	20
Bench Points	30	55
Biggest Lead	7	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg