Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 25, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Rockets	59%	115	119	130.8	91	83.6
	11	Lakers	41%	112	96	105.5	91	99.8

Prediction updated: Dec 26, 2025 01:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+26

-15

102

LAL

-16

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.18 58.9%

LAL

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	35.7	16	80%	7	0	2	1	0	2	2	5	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	33.5	25	78%	4	8	1	2	3	1	1	3	5-5	100%	4-8	50%	4-6	67%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	31.9	26	65%	7	5	1	0	2	2	3	4	2-3	67%	12-17	71%	0-2	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	31.2	14	78%	12	4	1	0	6	1	3	9	4-4	100%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	26.1	13	43%	3	2	4	2	1	4	1	2	0-2	0%	5-9	56%	1-5	20%

Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	25.6	4	67%	9	2	0	0	1	0	4	5	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	19.3	13	59%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	1-4	25%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	13.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	9.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	3.1	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	2.7	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	2.7	6	75%	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	2.7	0	0%	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	2.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	59%	48	24	10	6	15	13	17	31	15-19	79%	40-66	61%	8-24	33%

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3 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	35.7	16	80%	7	0	2	1	0	2	2	5	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Kevin Durant #7 · SF · 6'11" 240 · 37	33.5	25	78%	4	8	1	2	3	1	1	3	5-5	100%	4-8	50%	4-6	67%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	31.9	26	65%	7	5	1	0	2	2	3	4	2-3	67%	12-17	71%	0-2	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 23	31.2	14	78%	12	4	1	0	6	1	3	9	4-4	100%	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	26.1	13	43%	3	2	4	2	1	4	1	2	0-2	0%	5-9	56%	1-5	20%

Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 32	25.6	4	67%	9	2	0	0	1	0	4	5	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	19.3	13	59%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	1-4	25%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	13.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	9.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	3.1	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	2.7	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	2.7	6	75%	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	2.7	0	0%	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 39	2.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Smith #21 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	59%	48	24	10	6	15	13	17	31	15-19	79%	40-66	61%	8-24	33%

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11 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	36.3	10	83%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	33.9	25	63%	5	7	1	2	6	2	0	5	4-7	57%	6-9	67%	3-8	38%
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	32.4	18	60%	2	5	2	1	3	3	0	2	3-4	75%	6-10	60%	1-3	33%
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	27.7	0	0%	2	1	1	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-3	0%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	14.8	12	75%	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-5	40%

Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 32	29.4	6	38%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	26.4	11	92%	5	2	1	0	0	3	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-4	75%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	23.4	5	50%	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-1	100%
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	6.3	2	25%	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	3.1	2	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	3.1	2	50%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	3.1	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Gabe Vincent #7 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lumbar Back; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	96	57%	25	19	7	5	16	17	7	18	7-11	64%	28-47	60%	11-30	37%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	LAL
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	LAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.18 58.9%

LAL

1.14 57.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

74%

LAL

69%

Midrange

HOU

47%

LAL

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

12.0

33%

50%

LAL

16.5

37%

55%

Free Throws

HOU

79%

LAL

64%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Thompson	26	65%	13.0 / 20
K. Durant	25	78%	12.5 / 16
J. Smith	16	80%	8.0 / 10
A. Sengun	14	78%	7.0 / 9
T. Eason	13	43%	6.5 / 15
R. Sheppard	13	59%	6.5 / 11
C. Capela	6	75%	3.0 / 4
S. Adams	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Tate	2	50%	1.0 / 2
D. Finney-Smith	0	-	0.0 / 1
J. Okogie	0	-	0.0 / 4
A. Holiday	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Davison	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	25	63%	12.5 / 20
L. James	18	60%	9.0 / 15
A. Reaves	12	75%	6.0 / 8
J. Vanderbilt	11	92%	5.5 / 6
D. Ayton	10	83%	5.0 / 6
M. Smart	6	38%	3.0 / 8
J. LaRavia	5	50%	2.5 / 5
B. James	3	150%	1.5 / 1
M. Kleber	2	25%	1.0 / 4
D. Knecht	2	100%	1.0 / 1
A. Thiero	2	50%	1.0 / 2
R. Hachimura	0	-	0.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 10 117.1	HOU 130.8 +25.3 LAL 105.5
Pace	29 96.9 21 99.2	HOU 83.6 LAL 99.8 +16.2
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 6 14.8	HOU 17.2 LAL 14.4 −2.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 2 57.3%	HOU 57.8% LAL 57.8%
TO %	25 14.7% 19 13.9%	HOU 14.0% −2.4% LAL 16.4%
ORB %	1 34.8% 22 23.9%	HOU 48.6% +30.2% LAL 18.4%
FTrt	18 26.0 1 32.0	HOU 21.1 +6.8 LAL 14.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 19 61.5%	HOU 50.0% +1.3% LAL 48.7%
STL %	9 8.7% 12 8.6%	HOU 11.0% +3.3% LAL 7.7%
BLK %	4 10.9% 23 8.3%	HOU 12.8% +5.2% LAL 7.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 2 59.4%	HOU 58.9% +1.8% LAL 57.1%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 1 72.0%	HOU 73.5% +4.3% LAL 69.2%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 4 46.8%	HOU 46.9% LAL 47.6% +0.7%
3P %	10 36.4% 14 35.9%	HOU 33.3% LAL 36.7% +3.4%
FT %	25 76.3% 26 76.3%	HOU 78.9% +15.3% LAL 63.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 21 30.7%	HOU 37.8% +4.0% LAL 33.8%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 26 30.0%	HOU 35.6% LAL 27.3% −8.3%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 22 39.4%	HOU 26.7% LAL 39.0% +12.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	HOU	LAL
Possessions	91	91
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	119	96
Rebounds	48	25
Assists	24	19
Steals	10	7
Blocks	6	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	16 (0)
Fouls	13	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	17 (9)	7 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (0)	18 (2)
Field Goals	48-90	39-77
At-the-Rim FG	25-34	18-26
Midrange FG	15-32	10-21
2-Point FG	40-66	28-47
3-Point FG	8-24	11-30
Free Throws	15-19	7-11
Fast Break Pts	16	11
2nd Chance Pts	24	10
Points in Paint	68	52
Pts off Turnovers	23	11
Bench Points	25	31
Biggest Lead	24	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg