Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Nuggets	61%	120	130	131.3	99	104.9
	21	Mavericks	39%	116	131	133.7	98	92.8

Prediction updated: Dec 24, 2025 01:03 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-15

DAL

+14

-10

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.38 69.1%

DAL

1.30 64.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.3	31	67%	7	14	1	0	3	0	0	7	4-4	100%	9-14	64%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	36.4	29	66%	7	14	4	0	4	4	3	4	0-0	-	7-12	58%	5-10	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SG · 6'7" 225 · 25	26.1	6	60%	4	2	2	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	24.4	4	50%	2	1	0	0	3	4	0	2	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	23.9	8	57%	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-3	67%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	29.2	23	88%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	7-12	58%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.5	13	93%	7	3	1	1	2	3	2	5	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	14.1	8	80%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	12.3	8	100%	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	5.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	4.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	130	69%	34	39	8	1	15	16	7	27	10-10	100%	30-46	65%	20-41	49%

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9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.3	31	67%	7	14	1	0	3	0	0	7	4-4	100%	9-14	64%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	36.4	29	66%	7	14	4	0	4	4	3	4	0-0	-	7-12	58%	5-10	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SG · 6'7" 225 · 25	26.1	6	60%	4	2	2	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	24.4	4	50%	2	1	0	0	3	4	0	2	4-4	100%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	23.9	8	57%	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-3	67%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	29.2	23	88%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	7-12	58%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.5	13	93%	7	3	1	1	2	3	2	5	0-0	-	5-5	100%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	14.1	8	80%	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	12.3	8	100%	2	0	0	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	5.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	4.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	130	69%	34	39	8	1	15	16	7	27	10-10	100%	30-46	65%	20-41	49%

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21 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cooper Flagg #32 · PF · 6'9" 205 · 19	39.7	33	79%	9	9	1	1	2	1	2	7	1-1	100%	10-15	67%	4-6	67%
Anthony Davis #3 · C · 6'10" 253 · 33	35.9	31	70%	9	4	3	0	1	3	4	5	6-6	100%	11-17	65%	1-2	50%
Ryan Nembhard #9 · SG · 5'11" 180 · 23	32.7	11	50%	3	7	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Naji Marshall #13 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 28	31.6	15	68%	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	3	1-1	100%	4-7	57%	2-4	50%
Jaden Hardy #1 · PG · 6'3" 198 · 23	27.8	10	56%	2	2	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-3	0%

Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	24.9	9	75%	4	3	2	0	2	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	17.2	4	50%	3	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	15.2	9	50%	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	5-6	83%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
D'Angelo Russell #5 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	15.1	9	75%	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-5	60%
Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Miles Kelly #14 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 27	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Right Midfoot; Soreness
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Danté Exum #0 · PG · 6'5" 214 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	65%	36	34	9	2	10	12	11	25	14-15	93%	42-66	64%	11-27	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	DAL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.38 69.1%

DAL

1.30 64.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

72%

DAL

70%

Midrange

DEN

53%

DAL

58%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

30.0

49%

73%

DAL

16.5

41%

61%

Free Throws

DEN

100%

DAL

93%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	31	67%	15.5 / 23
N. Jokić	29	66%	14.5 / 22
T. Hardaway	23	88%	11.5 / 13
B. Brown	13	93%	6.5 / 7
C. Johnson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Valančiūnas	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Strawther	8	100%	4.0 / 4
S. Jones	6	60%	3.0 / 5
P. Watson	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Pickett	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Flagg	33	79%	16.5 / 21
A. Davis	31	70%	15.5 / 22
N. Marshall	15	68%	7.5 / 11
R. Nembhard	11	50%	5.5 / 11
J. Hardy	10	56%	5.0 / 9
C. Martin	9	75%	4.5 / 6
B. Williams	9	50%	4.5 / 9
D. Russell	9	75%	4.5 / 6
D. Gafford	4	50%	2.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 27 110.4	DEN 131.3 DAL 133.7 +2.4
Pace	19 99.4 6 102.5	DEN 104.9 +12.1 DAL 92.8
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 24 14.0	DEN 13.7 −1.8 DAL 15.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 28 52.7%	DEN 69.0% +6.1% DAL 62.9%
TO %	3 12.1% 13 13.5%	DEN 14.1% DAL 9.9% −4.2%
ORB %	24 23.6% 26 23.2%	DEN 21.9% DAL 28.9% +7.0%
FTrt	4 29.4 6 28.7	DEN 11.5 DAL 16.1 +4.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 22 60.4%	DEN 78.0% +13.8% DAL 64.2%
STL %	30 6.8% 27 7.3%	DEN 8.1% DAL 9.2% +1.1%
BLK %	29 7.6% 16 9.0%	DEN 1.5% DAL 4.3% +2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 28 55.2%	DEN 69.1% +4.2% DAL 64.9%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 22 63.2%	DEN 72.4% +2.7% DAL 69.7%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 18 43.1%	DEN 52.9% DAL 57.6% +4.7%
3P %	1 39.6% 26 34.4%	DEN 48.8% +8.1% DAL 40.7%
FT %	5 80.8% 28 75.5%	DEN 100.0% +6.7% DAL 93.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 12 32.8%	DEN 33.3% DAL 35.5% +2.2%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 28 31.7%	DEN 19.5% −15.9% DAL 35.5%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 26 35.5%	DEN 47.1% +18.1% DAL 29.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	DAL
Possessions	99	98
Possession Minutes	22.7	25.3
Points	130	131
Rebounds	34	36
Assists	39	34
Steals	8	9
Blocks	1	2
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	10 (1)
Fouls	16	12
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (3)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (1)	25 (2)
Field Goals	50-87	53-93
At-the-Rim FG	21-29	23-33
Midrange FG	9-17	19-33
2-Point FG	30-46	42-66
3-Point FG	20-41	11-27
Free Throws	10-10	14-15
Fast Break Pts	14	20
2nd Chance Pts	10	18
Points in Paint	50	66
Pts off Turnovers	13	22
Bench Points	52	31
Biggest Lead	3	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg