Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, October 30, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Heat	49%	116	101	102.0	99	114.5
	16	Spurs	51%	117	107	105.9	101	89.0

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

-14

SAS

+12

-11

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.07 53.7%

SAS

1.06 53.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.2	31	53%	10	3	1	1	2	2	1	9	3-4	75%	8-14	57%	4-13	31%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	35.4	24	63%	6	2	2	0	2	2	3	3	0-2	0%	9-13	69%	2-5	40%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	28.4	11	55%	1	4	1	0	3	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-4	75%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	26.4	5	50%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.9	0	0%	7	3	1	1	1	1	0	7	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-4	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	34.2	6	33%	8	6	0	0	1	1	0	8	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	27.6	18	100%	3	2	0	0	1	3	1	2	3-3	100%	0-2	0%	5-7	71%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	20.5	6	75%	2	5	1	0	2	4	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	9.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 24	INACTIVE
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	54%	41	29	6	2	14	20	5	36	8-11	73%	24-52	46%	15-38	39%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	37.2	31	53%	10	3	1	1	2	2	1	9	3-4	75%	8-14	57%	4-13	31%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	35.4	24	63%	6	2	2	0	2	2	3	3	0-2	0%	9-13	69%	2-5	40%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	28.4	11	55%	1	4	1	0	3	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-4	75%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	26.4	5	50%	3	3	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.9	0	0%	7	3	1	1	1	1	0	7	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-4	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	34.2	6	33%	8	6	0	0	1	1	0	8	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	27.6	18	100%	3	2	0	0	1	3	1	2	3-3	100%	0-2	0%	5-7	71%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	20.5	6	75%	2	5	1	0	2	4	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	9.5	0	0%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 24	INACTIVE
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 19	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	54%	41	29	6	2	14	20	5	36	8-11	73%	24-52	46%	15-38	39%

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16 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	39.7	27	50%	18	6	1	5	3	3	2	16	6-8	75%	9-18	50%	1-5	20%
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	37.2	17	50%	9	1	0	1	1	2	1	8	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	4-12	33%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	35.3	21	70%	6	8	4	1	2	4	1	5	5-7	71%	5-8	63%	2-4	50%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 33	30.7	10	56%	2	2	2	0	2	2	0	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-6	33%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 24	30.6	2	17%	5	2	2	1	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	24.8	13	59%	2	4	0	0	2	1	0	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.4	11	69%	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	11.1	6	75%	2	2	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	7.2	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #27 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Heel; Surgery
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Wrist; Sprain
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Bilateral Eye; Procedure
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	53%	48	26	10	8	11	17	9	39	17-23	74%	24-45	53%	14-41	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.07 53.7%

SAS

1.06 53.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

60%

SAS

65%

Midrange

MIA

33%

SAS

37%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

22.5

39%

59%

SAS

21.0

34%

51%

Free Throws

MIA

73%

SAS

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	31	53%	15.5 / 29
A. Wiggins	24	63%	12.0 / 19
S. Fontecchio	18	100%	9.0 / 9
D. Mitchell	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Jaquez	6	33%	3.0 / 9
D. Smith	6	75%	3.0 / 4
P. Larsson	5	50%	2.5 / 5
K. Ware	0	-	0.0 / 4
N. Jović	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	27	50%	13.5 / 27
S. Castle	21	70%	10.5 / 15
D. Vassell	17	50%	8.5 / 17
D. Harper	13	59%	6.5 / 11
K. Johnson	11	69%	5.5 / 8
H. Barnes	10	56%	5.0 / 9
J. McLaughlin	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Champagnie	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 3 118.9	MIA 102.0 SAS 105.9 +3.9
Pace	1 104.3 13 100.5	MIA 114.5 +25.5 SAS 89.0
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 18 14.2	MIA 12.6 −3.6 SAS 16.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 7 55.9%	MIA 51.7% SAS 52.3% +0.6%
TO %	5 12.6% 4 12.5%	MIA 12.9% SAS 10.3% −2.6%
ORB %	17 25.4% 10 26.2%	MIA 11.4% SAS 20.0% +8.6%
FTrt	14 26.8 12 27.3	MIA 12.2 SAS 26.7 +14.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 13 64.6%	MIA 74.4% +6.0% SAS 68.4%
STL %	17 8.3% 24 7.5%	MIA 6.1% SAS 9.9% +3.8%
BLK %	28 7.9% 10 10.0%	MIA 4.4% SAS 15.4% +11.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 6 58.1%	MIA 53.7% +0.7% SAS 53.0%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 9 65.8%	MIA 60.0% SAS 65.4% +5.4%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 5 45.1%	MIA 33.3% SAS 36.8% +3.5%
3P %	11 36.1% 15 35.9%	MIA 39.5% +5.4% SAS 34.1%
FT %	11 79.2% 12 78.7%	MIA 72.7% SAS 73.9% +1.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 7 34.4%	MIA 27.8% SAS 30.2% +2.5%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 7 23.4%	MIA 30.0% SAS 22.1% −7.9%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 15 42.2%	MIA 42.2% SAS 47.7% +5.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	SAS
Possessions	99	101
Possession Minutes	20.8	27.2
Points	101	107
Rebounds	41	48
Assists	29	26
Steals	6	10
Blocks	2	8
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	11 (0)
Fouls	20	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (4)	9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (2)	39 (4)
Field Goals	39-90	38-86
At-the-Rim FG	15-25	17-26
Midrange FG	9-27	7-19
2-Point FG	24-52	24-45
3-Point FG	15-38	14-41
Free Throws	8-11	17-23
Fast Break Pts	9	18
2nd Chance Pts	14	16
Points in Paint	42	40
Pts off Turnovers	14	19
Bench Points	30	30
Biggest Lead	7	15

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg