Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	11	Blazers	56%	119	131	113.9	115	113.2
	20	Heat	44%	117	136	119.3	114	115.9

Scoring Opportunities

POR

+25

-20

120

MIA

100

+15

-14

115

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.09 54.6%

MIA

1.19 59.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

11 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	39.2	13	38%	7	1	0	0	3	3	2	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-13	23%
Deni Avdija #8 · SF · 6'8" 228 · 25	36.5	33	72%	11	8	0	1	3	5	1	10	6-7	86%	9-12	75%	3-9	33%
Jrue Holiday #5 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	34.9	18	43%	9	13	4	0	3	3	3	6	3-4	75%	3-9	33%	3-10	30%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 22	28.2	21	53%	9	1	1	0	6	3	5	4	2-3	67%	8-11	73%	1-8	13%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	20.9	13	72%	7	0	2	2	0	4	5	2	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-3	33%

Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	22.1	18	69%	3	4	1	0	4	6	1	2	7-8	88%	4-6	67%	1-3	33%
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 25	21.7	6	38%	3	1	0	0	0	3	2	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	17.3	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	4	1	1	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 29	11.6	6	100%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	7.5	0	0%	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 35	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	NWT - Not With Team
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	NWT - Not With Team
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	55%	57	29	8	4	20	32	22	35	19-23	83%	35-58	60%	14-51	27%

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11 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	39.2	13	38%	7	1	0	0	3	3	2	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-13	23%
Deni Avdija #8 · SF · 6'8" 228 · 25	36.5	33	72%	11	8	0	1	3	5	1	10	6-7	86%	9-12	75%	3-9	33%
Jrue Holiday #5 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 35	34.9	18	43%	9	13	4	0	3	3	3	6	3-4	75%	3-9	33%	3-10	30%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 22	28.2	21	53%	9	1	1	0	6	3	5	4	2-3	67%	8-11	73%	1-8	13%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	20.9	13	72%	7	0	2	2	0	4	5	2	0-0	-	5-6	83%	1-3	33%

Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	22.1	18	69%	3	4	1	0	4	6	1	2	7-8	88%	4-6	67%	1-3	33%
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 25	21.7	6	38%	3	1	0	0	0	3	2	1	0-0	-	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	17.3	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	4	1	1	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 29	11.6	6	100%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	7.5	0	0%	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 35	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	NWT - Not With Team
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	NWT - Not With Team
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	55%	57	29	8	4	20	32	22	35	19-23	83%	35-58	60%	14-51	27%

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20 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	33.1	15	47%	3	1	2	1	1	3	0	3	3-4	75%	3-6	50%	2-8	25%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 32	30.1	22	55%	2	3	2	0	1	2	0	2	7-8	88%	6-11	55%	1-5	20%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.4	16	73%	1	5	0	0	1	3	0	1	1-1	100%	6-7	86%	1-3	33%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	25.8	11	69%	2	7	5	0	1	4	0	2	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	1-2	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	22.9	9	50%	12	1	1	3	2	2	5	7	1-3	33%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%

Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 22	31.4	29	81%	9	7	2	1	6	5	4	5	6-8	75%	7-9	78%	3-7	43%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	29.1	14	44%	12	7	1	0	1	1	0	12	2-3	67%	6-13	46%	0-2	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	22.3	13	72%	5	6	4	0	1	0	2	3	5-6	83%	4-4	100%	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	17.8	7	88%	1	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Sprain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	60%	47	37	17	5	14	23	12	35	28-36	78%	39-61	64%	10-35	29%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	POR	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	POR	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

POR

1.09 54.6%

MIA

1.19 59.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

POR

73%

MIA

70%

Midrange

POR

21%

MIA

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

POR

21.0

27%

41%

MIA

15.0

29%

43%

Free Throws

POR

83%

MIA

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Avdija	33	72%	16.5 / 23
S. Sharpe	21	53%	10.5 / 20
J. Holiday	18	43%	9.0 / 21
J. Grant	18	69%	9.0 / 13
T. Camara	13	38%	6.5 / 17
D. Clingan	13	72%	6.5 / 9
K. Murray	6	38%	3.0 / 8
D. Reath	6	100%	3.0 / 3
S. Cissoko	3	38%	1.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jović	29	81%	14.5 / 18
N. Powell	22	55%	11.0 / 20
P. Larsson	16	73%	8.0 / 11
A. Wiggins	15	47%	7.5 / 16
J. Jaquez	14	44%	7.0 / 16
D. Smith	13	72%	6.5 / 9
D. Mitchell	11	69%	5.5 / 8
K. Ware	9	50%	4.5 / 9
S. Fontecchio	7	88%	3.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.1 12 115.8	POR 113.9 MIA 119.3 +5.4
Pace	8 101.6 1 104.3	POR 113.2 MIA 115.9 +2.7
Avg. Poss. Time	16 14.2 30 13.1	POR 12.7 MIA 12.4 −0.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	22 53.3% 18 54.2%	POR 51.4% MIA 56.3% +4.9%
TO %	30 16.1% 5 12.6%	POR 14.4% MIA 11.8% −2.6%
ORB %	2 31.3% 17 25.4%	POR 38.6% +13.1% MIA 25.5%
FTrt	9 28.0 14 26.8	POR 21.1 MIA 37.5 +16.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	18 61.6% 10 66.3%	POR 59.2% MIA 75.5% +16.3%
STL %	20 8.1% 17 8.3%	POR 7.0% MIA 14.9% +7.9%
BLK %	8 10.1% 28 7.9%	POR 6.6% MIA 8.6% +2.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	23 55.6% 15 56.8%	POR 54.6% MIA 59.6% +5.0%
Rim FG%	19 63.9% 20 63.6%	POR 72.7% +2.2% MIA 70.5%
Mid FG%	29 37.4% 21 42.4%	POR 21.4% MIA 47.1% +25.7%
3P %	28 34.2% 11 36.1%	POR 27.5% MIA 28.6% +1.1%
FT %	24 76.5% 11 79.2%	POR 82.6% +4.8% MIA 77.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	5 35.6% 11 32.9%	POR 40.4% MIA 45.8% +5.5%
Mid Att. %	2 17.6% 17 26.5%	POR 12.8% −4.9% MIA 17.7%
3P Att. %	3 46.8% 18 40.6%	POR 46.8% +10.3% MIA 36.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.26 and 2.26.

Game Totals	POR	MIA
Possessions	115	114
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	131	136
Rebounds	57	47
Assists	29	37
Steals	8	17
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	20 (0)	14 (1)
Fouls	32	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	22 (3)	12 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (2)	35 (3)
Field Goals	49-109	49-96
At-the-Rim FG	32-44	31-44
Midrange FG	3-14	8-17
2-Point FG	35-58	39-61
3-Point FG	14-51	10-35
Free Throws	19-23	28-36
Fast Break Pts	26	24
2nd Chance Pts	25	14
Points in Paint	68	74
Pts off Turnovers	25	32
Bench Points	33	63
Biggest Lead	12	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg