Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, November 8, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	23	Pacers	32%	114	100	95.2	105	111.7
	8	Nuggets	68%	120	117	114.7	102	96.2

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+20

-11

114

DEN

+17

-16

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

0.89 44.6%

DEN

1.14 56.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

23 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	33.1	14	39%	6	5	0	0	2	2	2	4	4-6	67%	5-14	36%	0-2	0%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	33.0	22	48%	0	6	0	0	3	1	0	0	6-6	100%	5-11	45%	2-9	22%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	26.2	25	104%	1	0	4	0	1	3	1	0	8-8	100%	4-6	67%	3-4	75%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 22	21.8	8	50%	5	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	18.5	4	29%	6	1	3	0	0	2	1	5	2-4	50%	1-5	20%	0-0	-

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	22.8	5	31%	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #25 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	18.8	7	44%	5	1	1	0	1	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	15.9	6	75%	5	3	0	0	1	4	4	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	15.3	4	33%	6	1	0	4	1	4	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Monté Morris #3 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 30	15.0	3	25%	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Cody Martin #11 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 30	14.4	2	25%	3	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	5.1	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Stress Reaction
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	45%	43	20	9	6	11	23	15	28	26-34	76%	25-58	43%	8-35	23%

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23 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	33.1	14	39%	6	5	0	0	2	2	2	4	4-6	67%	5-14	36%	0-2	0%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	33.0	22	48%	0	6	0	0	3	1	0	0	6-6	100%	5-11	45%	2-9	22%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	26.2	25	104%	1	0	4	0	1	3	1	0	8-8	100%	4-6	67%	3-4	75%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 22	21.8	8	50%	5	2	0	0	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	18.5	4	29%	6	1	3	0	0	2	1	5	2-4	50%	1-5	20%	0-0	-

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 24	22.8	5	31%	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl #25 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 25	18.8	7	44%	5	1	1	0	1	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	15.9	6	75%	5	3	0	0	1	4	4	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	15.3	4	33%	6	1	0	4	1	4	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Monté Morris #3 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 30	15.0	3	25%	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Cody Martin #11 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 30	14.4	2	25%	3	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	2-4	50%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
RayJ Dennis #10 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	5.1	0	0%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Stress Reaction
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	45%	43	20	9	6	11	23	15	28	26-34	76%	25-58	43%	8-35	23%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	31.7	32	80%	14	14	1	0	8	4	5	9	11-12	92%	9-13	69%	1-1	100%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	27.3	12	55%	2	4	2	0	0	2	0	2	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	0-3	0%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	27.2	16	62%	7	1	3	0	1	3	4	3	1-1	100%	6-9	67%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	27.0	8	44%	5	2	1	0	2	1	2	3	2-3	67%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · PG · 6'2" 202 · 26	17.5	2	25%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	23.8	6	43%	7	0	1	0	1	3	1	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	23.6	17	65%	3	4	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	5-9	56%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	21.6	12	60%	6	2	0	0	0	3	0	6	2-3	67%	5-7	71%	0-3	0%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	19.9	6	60%	1	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	13.9	6	50%	5	3	0	1	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	3.2	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Tightness
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	57%	55	32	8	2	16	25	15	40	19-23	83%	37-66	56%	8-27	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	IND	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

IND

0.89 44.6%

DEN

1.14 56.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

39%

DEN

62%

Midrange

IND

48%

DEN

31%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

12.0

23%

34%

DEN

12.0

30%

44%

Free Throws

IND

76%

DEN

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nesmith	25	104%	12.5 / 12
A. Nembhard	22	48%	11.0 / 23
P. Siakam	14	39%	7.0 / 18
J. Walker	8	50%	4.0 / 8
J. Robinson-Earl	7	44%	3.5 / 8
T. Bradley	6	75%	3.0 / 4
B. Sheppard	5	31%	2.5 / 8
I. Jackson	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Huff	4	33%	2.0 / 6
M. Morris	3	25%	1.5 / 6
C. Martin	2	25%	1.0 / 4
R. Dennis	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	32	80%	16.0 / 20
T. Hardaway	17	65%	8.5 / 13
P. Watson	16	62%	8.0 / 13
C. Johnson	12	55%	6.0 / 11
J. Strawther	12	60%	6.0 / 10
C. Braun	8	44%	4.0 / 9
B. Brown	6	43%	3.0 / 7
S. Jones	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Valančiūnas	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Pickett	2	25%	1.0 / 4
H. Tyson	0	-	0.0 / 2
Z. Nnaji	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 1 121.3	IND 95.2 DEN 114.7 +19.5
Pace	10 101.4 19 99.4	IND 111.7 +15.4 DEN 96.2
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 9 14.7	IND 12.9 −2.1 DEN 15.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 1 57.7%	IND 39.8% DEN 52.7% +12.9%
TO %	14 13.6% 3 12.1%	IND 9.2% −5.7% DEN 14.9%
ORB %	29 21.7% 24 23.6%	IND 27.3% DEN 34.9% +7.6%
FTrt	20 25.2 4 29.4	IND 36.6 +11.9 DEN 24.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 9 66.5%	IND 60.6% DEN 71.1% +10.5%
STL %	28 7.2% 30 6.8%	IND 8.6% +0.8% DEN 7.8%
BLK %	26 8.1% 29 7.6%	IND 9.1% +5.7% DEN 3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 1 60.1%	IND 44.6% DEN 56.8% +12.2%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 12 65.1%	IND 39.4% DEN 62.3% +22.9%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 2 47.0%	IND 48.0% +17.2% DEN 30.8%
3P %	18 35.6% 1 39.6%	IND 22.9% DEN 29.6% +6.7%
FT %	17 77.6% 5 80.8%	IND 76.5% DEN 82.6% +6.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 19 31.1%	IND 35.5% DEN 57.0% +21.5%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 21 28.1%	IND 26.9% DEN 14.0% −12.9%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 17 40.8%	IND 37.6% +8.6% DEN 29.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	IND	DEN
Possessions	105	102
Possession Minutes	22.6	25.4
Points	100	117
Rebounds	43	55
Assists	20	32
Steals	9	8
Blocks	6	2
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	16 (2)
Fouls	23	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (5)	15 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (4)	40 (4)
Field Goals	33-93	45-93
At-the-Rim FG	13-33	33-53
Midrange FG	12-25	4-13
2-Point FG	25-58	37-66
3-Point FG	8-35	8-27
Free Throws	26-34	19-23
Fast Break Pts	5	16
2nd Chance Pts	11	19
Points in Paint	42	72
Pts off Turnovers	16	17
Bench Points	27	47
Biggest Lead	4	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg