Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 29, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	11	Nuggets	51%	120	123	120.6	102	94.6
	13	Heat	49%	119	147	144.1	102	110.6

Prediction updated: Dec 30, 2025 12:32 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-10

102

MIA

+18

-9

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.22 60.9%

MIA

1.32 66.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

11 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	34.8	20	48%	6	11	1	0	2	0	1	5	0-0	-	7-15	47%	2-6	33%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	33.1	16	114%	3	1	3	1	0	3	0	3	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	5-5	100%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	31.7	11	46%	2	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	0-2	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	28.3	16	57%	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-3	67%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	19.4	21	70%	5	8	0	0	2	1	2	3	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	1-4	25%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.9	15	83%	5	2	0	0	2	4	1	4	0-0	-	6-7	86%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	15.7	6	100%	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	14.2	4	40%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	9.4	4	100%	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	8.3	4	100%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	6.4	2	100%	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	6.4	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	6.4	2	20%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	61%	36	29	5	4	10	21	6	30	18-22	82%	36-58	62%	11-31	35%

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11 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	34.8	20	48%	6	11	1	0	2	0	1	5	0-0	-	7-15	47%	2-6	33%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	33.1	16	114%	3	1	3	1	0	3	0	3	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	5-5	100%
Peyton Watson #8 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 23	31.7	11	46%	2	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	0-2	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	28.3	16	57%	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-3	67%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	19.4	21	70%	5	8	0	0	2	1	2	3	2-3	67%	8-10	80%	1-4	25%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.9	15	83%	5	2	0	0	2	4	1	4	0-0	-	6-7	86%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	15.7	6	100%	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	14.2	4	40%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	9.4	4	100%	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	8.3	4	100%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	6.4	2	100%	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	6.4	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	6.4	2	20%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	61%	36	29	5	4	10	21	6	30	18-22	82%	36-58	62%	11-31	35%

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13 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	31.6	10	63%	3	9	0	1	3	4	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.3	19	79%	5	6	3	3	0	2	1	4	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	28.0	25	74%	1	4	1	0	3	1	1	0	4-4	100%	6-8	75%	3-8	38%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	23.9	19	79%	9	0	1	0	0	1	5	4	0-0	-	5-6	83%	3-6	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 28	21.2	13	59%	10	4	1	0	2	3	3	7	2-2	100%	4-8	50%	1-2	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	27.9	20	71%	3	11	0	0	0	0	1	2	3-6	50%	7-9	78%	1-2	50%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	25.9	22	85%	4	5	0	0	0	3	0	4	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	5-8	63%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	21.1	11	92%	4	1	2	0	1	3	0	4	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	2-4	50%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	15.4	3	30%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	3.5	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3-3	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.5	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	3.5	2	20%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Big Toe; Contusion
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	147	66%	46	40	8	4	9	22	15	31	19-23	83%	31-53	58%	22-46	48%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.22 60.9%

MIA

1.32 66.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

65%

MIA

58%

Midrange

DEN

59%

MIA

59%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

16.5

35%

53%

MIA

33.0

48%

72%

Free Throws

DEN

82%

MIA

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	21	70%	10.5 / 15
J. Murray	20	48%	10.0 / 21
S. Jones	16	114%	8.0 / 7
T. Hardaway	16	57%	8.0 / 14
B. Brown	15	83%	7.5 / 9
P. Watson	11	46%	5.5 / 12
J. Valančiūnas	6	100%	3.0 / 3
J. Strawther	4	40%	2.0 / 5
Z. Nnaji	4	100%	2.0 / 2
D. Holmes	4	100%	2.0 / 2
J. Pickett	2	100%	1.0 / 1
H. Tyson	2	33%	1.0 / 3
C. Jones	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Powell	25	74%	12.5 / 17
N. Jović	22	85%	11.0 / 13
J. Jaquez	20	71%	10.0 / 14
A. Wiggins	19	79%	9.5 / 12
K. Ware	19	79%	9.5 / 12
B. Adebayo	13	59%	6.5 / 11
D. Smith	11	92%	5.5 / 6
D. Mitchell	10	63%	5.0 / 8
P. Larsson	3	30%	1.5 / 5
S. Fontecchio	3	75%	1.5 / 2
K. Johnson	2	20%	1.0 / 5
M. Gardner	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 12 115.8	DEN 120.6 MIA 144.1 +23.5
Pace	19 99.4 1 104.3	DEN 94.6 MIA 110.6 +16.0
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 30 13.1	DEN 15.2 MIA 13.0 −2.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 18 54.2%	DEN 59.0% MIA 64.6% +5.6%
TO %	3 12.1% 5 12.6%	DEN 9.2% MIA 8.4% −0.8%
ORB %	24 23.6% 17 25.4%	DEN 16.2% MIA 33.3% +17.1%
FTrt	4 29.4 14 26.8	DEN 24.7 +1.5 MIA 23.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 10 66.3%	DEN 61.7% MIA 75.5% +13.8%
STL %	30 6.8% 17 8.3%	DEN 4.9% MIA 7.8% +2.9%
BLK %	29 7.6% 28 7.9%	DEN 7.5% +0.6% MIA 6.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 15 56.8%	DEN 60.9% MIA 66.2% +5.3%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 20 63.6%	DEN 65.4% +7.3% MIA 58.1%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 21 42.4%	DEN 59.4% +0.3% MIA 59.1%
3P %	1 39.6% 11 36.1%	DEN 35.5% MIA 47.8% +12.3%
FT %	5 80.8% 11 79.2%	DEN 81.8% MIA 82.6% +0.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 11 32.9%	DEN 29.2% MIA 31.3% +2.1%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 17 26.5%	DEN 36.0% MIA 22.2% −13.7%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 18 40.6%	DEN 34.8% MIA 46.5% +11.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	MIA
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	25.9	22.1
Points	123	147
Rebounds	36	46
Assists	29	40
Steals	5	8
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	9 (1)
Fouls	21	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (4)	15 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (0)	31 (3)
Field Goals	47-89	53-99
At-the-Rim FG	17-26	18-31
Midrange FG	19-32	13-22
2-Point FG	36-58	31-53
3-Point FG	11-31	22-46
Free Throws	18-22	19-23
Fast Break Pts	9	18
2nd Chance Pts	8	12
Points in Paint	58	56
Pts off Turnovers	12	19
Bench Points	39	61
Biggest Lead	2	27

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg