Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, December 29, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	24	Hawks	13%	105	129	118.3	109	119.0
	1	Thunder	87%	119	140	128.4	109	100.5

Prediction updated: Dec 30, 2025 12:48 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+12

-16

105

OKC

+15

-13

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.23 61.4%

OKC

1.25 62.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

24 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	39.9	30	60%	4	5	2	1	1	3	0	4	2-3	67%	5-10	50%	6-14	43%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	35.0	26	65%	14	6	1	0	4	3	2	12	7-8	88%	5-10	50%	3-6	50%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	34.5	13	50%	6	7	1	2	3	0	2	4	1-1	100%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	34.2	18	64%	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	4-10	40%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.7	12	67%	4	0	1	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	4-8	50%

Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	30.7	12	75%	4	5	1	0	2	2	0	4	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	20.4	9	50%	0	2	1	0	2	5	0	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	12.2	9	113%	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-4	75%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	10.2	0	0%	5	3	2	0	0	2	4	1	0-2	0%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Malik Williams #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad; Contusion
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Eli John Ndiaye #30 · PF · 6'8" 209 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	61%	38	32	11	4	16	20	10	28	12-17	71%	21-43	49%	25-54	46%

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24 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	39.9	30	60%	4	5	2	1	1	3	0	4	2-3	67%	5-10	50%	6-14	43%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	35.0	26	65%	14	6	1	0	4	3	2	12	7-8	88%	5-10	50%	3-6	50%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	34.5	13	50%	6	7	1	2	3	0	2	4	1-1	100%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Vít Krejčí #27 · SF · 6'8" 195 · 26	34.2	18	64%	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	4-10	40%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · PF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.7	12	67%	4	0	1	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	4-8	50%

Luke Kennard #3 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	30.7	12	75%	4	5	1	0	2	2	0	4	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	20.4	9	50%	0	2	1	0	2	5	0	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	12.2	9	113%	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	3-4	75%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	10.2	0	0%	5	3	2	0	0	2	4	1	0-2	0%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Malik Williams #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trae Young #11 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad; Contusion
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Eli John Ndiaye #30 · PF · 6'8" 209 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	61%	38	32	11	4	16	20	10	28	12-17	71%	21-43	49%	25-54	46%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 27	35.9	39	72%	6	6	2	0	3	1	1	5	7-7	100%	13-19	68%	2-5	40%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	33.7	17	106%	7	3	2	1	1	4	1	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	5-6	83%
Jalen Williams #8 · PF · 6'5" 211 · 25	32.9	20	53%	8	7	1	1	3	0	1	7	4-5	80%	8-16	50%	0-1	0%
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	30.5	24	75%	10	2	0	2	2	3	4	6	4-4	100%	7-10	70%	2-4	50%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	22.6	6	33%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	1-7	14%

Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	24.0	16	100%	8	2	2	0	1	1	1	7	0-0	-	5-6	83%	2-2	100%
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	23.3	10	50%	1	4	2	2	0	4	0	1	4-4	100%	3-5	60%	0-3	0%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	11.3	2	20%	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	10.8	6	75%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 26	10.2	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	4.8	0	0%	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ousmane Dieng #13 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Heel; Bursitis
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Soleus; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	63%	49	27	9	7	13	18	10	39	22-23	96%	41-66	62%	12-32	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	OKC

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.23 61.4%

OKC

1.25 62.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

57%

OKC

68%

Midrange

ATL

41%

OKC

54%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

37.5

46%

69%

OKC

18.0

38%

56%

Free Throws

ATL

71%

OKC

96%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Alexander-Walker	30	60%	15.0 / 25
O. Okongwu	26	65%	13.0 / 20
V. Krejčí	18	64%	9.0 / 14
D. Daniels	13	50%	6.5 / 13
Z. Risacher	12	67%	6.0 / 9
L. Kennard	12	75%	6.0 / 8
A. Newell	9	50%	4.5 / 9
K. Wallace	9	113%	4.5 / 4
M. Gueye	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	39	72%	19.5 / 27
C. Holmgren	24	75%	12.0 / 16
J. Williams	20	53%	10.0 / 19
C. Wallace	17	106%	8.5 / 8
A. Caruso	16	100%	8.0 / 8
A. Mitchell	10	50%	5.0 / 10
L. Dort	6	33%	3.0 / 9
B. Carlson	6	75%	3.0 / 4
A. Wiggins	2	20%	1.0 / 5
I. Joe	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 7 117.6	ATL 118.3 OKC 128.4 +10.1
Pace	4 102.5 15 100.3	ATL 119.0 +18.5 OKC 100.5
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 20 14.1	ATL 12.1 −2.2 OKC 14.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 4 56.1%	ATL 60.3% +0.1% OKC 60.2%
TO %	8 13.0% 1 11.8%	ATL 13.3% OKC 11.5% −1.8%
ORB %	20 24.3% 28 22.3%	ATL 20.4% OKC 26.3% +5.9%
FTrt	27 23.4 17 26.1	ATL 17.5 OKC 23.5 +6.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 25 59.8%	ATL 69.6% +18.7% OKC 50.9%
STL %	6 9.1% 4 9.6%	ATL 10.1% +1.8% OKC 8.3%
BLK %	18 8.8% 2 11.0%	ATL 6.1% OKC 16.3% +10.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 4 58.5%	ATL 61.4% OKC 62.5% +1.1%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 11 65.2%	ATL 57.1% OKC 67.5% +10.4%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 1 47.6%	ATL 40.9% OKC 53.8% +12.9%
3P %	5 37.1% 9 36.5%	ATL 46.3% +8.8% OKC 37.5%
FT %	20 77.4% 3 81.7%	ATL 70.6% OKC 95.7% +25.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 16 31.3%	ATL 21.6% OKC 40.8% +19.2%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 15 26.1%	ATL 22.7% −3.9% OKC 26.5%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 13 42.6%	ATL 55.7% +23.0% OKC 32.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	OKC
Possessions	109	109
Possession Minutes	22.0	26.0
Points	129	140
Rebounds	38	49
Assists	32	27
Steals	11	9
Blocks	4	7
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	13 (1)
Fouls	20	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (2)	10 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (2)	39 (3)
Field Goals	46-97	53-98
At-the-Rim FG	12-21	27-40
Midrange FG	9-22	14-26
2-Point FG	21-43	41-66
3-Point FG	25-54	12-32
Free Throws	12-17	22-23
Fast Break Pts	10	23
2nd Chance Pts	15	16
Points in Paint	36	70
Pts off Turnovers	14	18
Bench Points	30	34
Biggest Lead	10	15

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg