Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Lakers	26%	111	91	89.2	102	103.8
	7	Spurs	74%	119	107	107.0	100	98.3

Prediction updated: Jan 8, 2026 02:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

LAL

+15

-17

100

SAS

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

LAL

0.92 46.0%

SAS

1.13 56.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	38.6	16	62%	7	1	1	0	1	2	4	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-9	44%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	38.3	38	59%	10	10	3	0	7	3	0	10	10-16	63%	11-17	65%	2-9	22%
Marcus Smart #36 · SG · 6'3" 220 · 32	34.5	2	17%	7	1	3	0	4	3	0	7	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	28.9	9	45%	6	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 27	18.9	4	33%	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-3	0%

Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	19.2	2	17%	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-5	0%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	18.3	10	100%	7	0	0	0	0	3	2	5	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Gabe Vincent #7 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	18.1	6	38%	2	2	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-7	29%
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	12.3	1	13%	3	0	1	0	0	2	2	1	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	10.4	3	38%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot Joint Arthritis; & Right Sciatica
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right MCL; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	91	46%	45	16	9	2	17	21	10	35	14-22	64%	25-47	53%	9-39	23%

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22 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	38.6	16	62%	7	1	1	0	1	2	4	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-9	44%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	38.3	38	59%	10	10	3	0	7	3	0	10	10-16	63%	11-17	65%	2-9	22%
Marcus Smart #36 · SG · 6'3" 220 · 32	34.5	2	17%	7	1	3	0	4	3	0	7	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 27	28.9	9	45%	6	1	0	1	1	2	1	5	1-2	50%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 27	18.9	4	33%	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-3	0%

Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	19.2	2	17%	3	0	0	1	3	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-5	0%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	18.3	10	100%	7	0	0	0	0	3	2	5	2-2	100%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Gabe Vincent #7 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	18.1	6	38%	2	2	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-7	29%
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	12.3	1	13%	3	0	1	0	0	2	2	1	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	10.4	3	38%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot Joint Arthritis; & Right Sciatica
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right MCL; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	91	46%	45	16	9	2	17	21	10	35	14-22	64%	25-47	53%	9-39	23%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	34.2	14	44%	3	5	1	0	3	2	0	3	4-4	100%	5-8	63%	0-6	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.6	11	42%	9	3	0	0	2	1	3	6	5-6	83%	3-5	60%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	29.9	7	50%	0	6	1	0	0	2	0	0	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	29.1	15	68%	5	4	2	1	2	5	0	5	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 30	21.2	7	50%	6	1	2	0	1	2	3	3	3-4	75%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	27.6	27	96%	6	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	3-3	100%	9-10	90%	2-3	67%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.0	16	47%	14	2	2	4	4	3	1	13	2-4	50%	7-12	58%	0-3	0%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	19.9	2	17%	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	11.5	6	150%	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	4.5	2	100%	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	0.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Adductor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	56%	50	24	10	5	14	20	8	42	23-28	82%	36-57	63%	4-25	16%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

LAL

0.92 46.0%

SAS

1.13 56.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

LAL

75%

SAS

73%

Midrange

LAL

42%

SAS

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

LAL

13.5

23%

35%

SAS

6.0

16%

24%

Free Throws

LAL

64%

SAS

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	38	59%	19.0 / 32
J. LaRavia	16	62%	8.0 / 13
J. Hayes	10	100%	5.0 / 5
D. Ayton	9	45%	4.5 / 10
G. Vincent	6	38%	3.0 / 8
J. Vanderbilt	4	33%	2.0 / 6
N. Smith	3	38%	1.5 / 4
M. Smart	2	17%	1.0 / 6
D. Knecht	2	17%	1.0 / 6
M. Kleber	1	13%	0.5 / 4
D. Timme	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	27	96%	13.5 / 14
V. Wembanyama	16	47%	8.0 / 17
S. Castle	15	68%	7.5 / 11
D. Fox	14	44%	7.0 / 16
J. Champagnie	11	42%	5.5 / 13
H. Barnes	7	50%	3.5 / 7
L. Kornet	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Sochan	6	150%	3.0 / 2
D. Harper	2	17%	1.0 / 6
C. Bryant	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	10 117.1 3 118.9	LAL 89.2 SAS 107.0 +17.8
Pace	21 99.2 13 100.5	LAL 103.8 +5.4 SAS 98.3
Avg. Poss. Time	6 14.8 18 14.2	LAL 13.9 −0.8 SAS 14.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 7 55.9%	LAL 44.8% SAS 51.2% +6.4%
TO %	19 13.9% 4 12.5%	LAL 15.1% SAS 13.7% −1.4%
ORB %	22 23.9% 10 26.2%	LAL 19.2% +0.6% SAS 18.6%
FTrt	1 32.0 12 27.3	LAL 25.6 SAS 34.1 +8.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	19 61.5% 13 64.6%	LAL 47.1% SAS 60.0% +12.9%
STL %	12 8.6% 24 7.5%	LAL 8.8% SAS 10.0% +1.2%
BLK %	23 8.3% 10 10.0%	LAL 3.5% SAS 10.6% +7.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 59.4% 6 58.1%	LAL 46.0% SAS 56.3% +10.3%
Rim FG%	1 72.0% 9 65.8%	LAL 75.0% +2.3% SAS 72.7%
Mid FG%	4 46.8% 5 45.1%	LAL 41.9% SAS 50.0% +8.1%
3P %	14 35.9% 15 35.9%	LAL 23.1% +7.1% SAS 16.0%
FT %	26 76.3% 12 78.7%	LAL 63.6% SAS 82.1% +18.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.7% 7 34.4%	LAL 18.6% SAS 40.2% +21.6%
Mid Att. %	26 30.0% 7 23.4%	LAL 36.0% SAS 29.3% −6.8%
3P Att. %	22 39.4% 15 42.2%	LAL 45.3% +14.9% SAS 30.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	LAL	SAS
Possessions	102	100
Possession Minutes	23.6	24.4
Points	91	107
Rebounds	45	50
Assists	16	24
Steals	9	10
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	17 (0)	14 (1)
Fouls	21	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (5)	8 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (3)	42 (1)
Field Goals	34-86	40-82
At-the-Rim FG	12-16	24-33
Midrange FG	13-31	12-24
2-Point FG	25-47	36-57
3-Point FG	9-39	4-25
Free Throws	14-22	23-28
Fast Break Pts	15	12
2nd Chance Pts	10	6
Points in Paint	40	66
Pts off Turnovers	14	19
Bench Points	22	53
Biggest Lead	4	16

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg