Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 16, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	29	Wizards	35%	113	115	112.7	102	106.6
	25	Kings	65%	118	128	125.5	102	97.7

Prediction updated: Jan 17, 2026 03:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

-11

100

SAC

+13

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.15 57.5%

SAC

1.32 66.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	38.9	11	138%	2	9	2	0	3	3	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	3-4	75%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	29.8	18	53%	2	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	3-9	33%	4-8	50%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	27.7	19	73%	4	3	0	1	2	0	1	3	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 25	26.7	15	68%	7	2	0	0	0	4	2	5	0-0	-	6-8	75%	1-3	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	23.8	15	58%	8	3	1	0	0	4	2	6	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	0-4	0%

Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	26.1	6	43%	2	0	2	0	2	3	0	2	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	22.0	6	38%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-7	29%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	19.2	8	44%	4	0	1	0	0	4	1	3	6-8	75%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	13.2	13	72%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-2	50%
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	11.5	4	33%	3	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Stiffness
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; MCL Sprain; Quad Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	34	23	9	2	11	22	7	27	16-21	76%	33-56	59%	11-34	32%

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29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 20	38.9	11	138%	2	9	2	0	3	3	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	3-4	75%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	29.8	18	53%	2	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	3-9	33%	4-8	50%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	27.7	19	73%	4	3	0	1	2	0	1	3	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	0-0	-
Justin Champagnie #9 · PF · 6'6" 206 · 25	26.7	15	68%	7	2	0	0	0	4	2	5	0-0	-	6-8	75%	1-3	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 22	23.8	15	58%	8	3	1	0	0	4	2	6	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	0-4	0%

Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	26.1	6	43%	2	0	2	0	2	3	0	2	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	22.0	6	38%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-7	29%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	19.2	8	44%	4	0	1	0	0	4	1	3	6-8	75%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Malaki Branham #8 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 23	13.2	13	72%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-2	50%
AJ Johnson #4 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	11.5	4	33%	3	0	1	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Khris Middleton #22 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 34	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Stiffness
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; MCL Sprain; Quad Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	34	23	9	2	11	22	7	27	16-21	76%	33-56	59%	11-34	32%

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25 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	32.8	17	57%	2	4	1	0	2	4	0	2	4-5	80%	5-11	45%	1-2	50%
Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	32.4	16	62%	2	3	1	2	0	3	0	2	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	31.1	26	87%	2	6	1	0	4	2	1	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	6-9	67%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 26	27.6	16	89%	6	1	0	2	1	0	4	2	1-2	50%	6-6	100%	1-2	50%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	21.7	4	33%	8	5	1	0	1	1	2	6	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	21.2	13	81%	6	5	1	1	4	2	0	6	3-5	60%	5-5	100%	0-1	0%
Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	20.2	15	75%	1	5	0	0	1	1	0	1	5-8	63%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	18.9	9	64%	7	3	0	0	1	1	2	5	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	18.7	8	80%	9	1	0	0	1	5	3	6	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	15.6	4	33%	2	3	0	0	3	0	0	2	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dario Šarić #20 · C · 6'10" 225 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	66%	45	36	5	5	18	19	12	33	19-30	63%	32-50	64%	15-31	48%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	SAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.15 57.5%

SAC

1.32 66.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

72%

SAC

83%

Midrange

WAS

42%

SAC

35%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

16.5

32%

49%

SAC

22.5

48%

73%

Free Throws

WAS

76%

SAC

63%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	19	73%	9.5 / 13
T. Johnson	18	53%	9.0 / 17
J. Champagnie	15	68%	7.5 / 11
K. George	15	58%	7.5 / 13
M. Branham	13	72%	6.5 / 9
B. Carrington	11	138%	5.5 / 4
M. Bagley	8	44%	4.0 / 9
J. Watkins	6	43%	3.0 / 7
W. Riley	6	38%	3.0 / 8
A. Johnson	4	33%	2.0 / 6
A. Gill	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
R. Westbrook	26	87%	13.0 / 15
D. DeRozan	17	57%	8.5 / 15
Z. LaVine	16	62%	8.0 / 13
P. Achiuwa	16	89%	8.0 / 9
D. Schröder	15	75%	7.5 / 10
D. Sabonis	13	81%	6.5 / 8
N. Clifford	9	64%	4.5 / 7
D. Cardwell	8	80%	4.0 / 5
M. Raynaud	4	33%	2.0 / 6
M. Monk	4	33%	2.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 109.7 26 110.6	WAS 112.7 SAC 125.5 +12.7
Pace	5 102.5 17 100.0	WAS 106.6 +9.0 SAC 97.7
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 14 14.5	WAS 13.5 −1.2 SAC 14.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.5% 29 52.5%	WAS 55.0% SAC 67.3% +12.3%
TO %	26 14.7% 15 13.7%	WAS 10.0% −6.8% SAC 16.8%
ORB %	21 24.0% 13 25.9%	WAS 17.5% SAC 30.8% +13.3%
FTrt	26 23.5 19 25.6	WAS 23.3 SAC 37.0 +13.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	24 59.9% 20 61.5%	WAS 52.3% SAC 76.6% +24.3%
STL %	22 7.8% 21 8.0%	WAS 8.8% +3.9% SAC 4.9%
BLK %	9 10.0% 19 8.6%	WAS 4.0% SAC 8.9% +4.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	26 55.4% 29 54.7%	WAS 57.5% SAC 66.0% +8.5%
Rim FG%	15 64.7% 8 65.9%	WAS 71.9% SAC 83.3% +11.4%
Mid FG%	26 41.3% 13 43.8%	WAS 41.7% +6.7% SAC 35.0%
3P %	16 35.9% 29 34.1%	WAS 32.4% SAC 48.4% +16.0%
FT %	23 76.6% 21 77.2%	WAS 76.2% +12.9% SAC 63.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.6% 28 28.0%	WAS 35.6% SAC 37.0% +1.5%
Mid Att. %	25 29.1% 30 38.1%	WAS 26.7% SAC 24.7% −2.0%
3P Att. %	20 40.3% 30 33.9%	WAS 37.8% SAC 38.3% +0.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.66 and 2.66.

Game Totals	WAS	SAC
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	23.0	25.1
Points	115	128
Rebounds	34	45
Assists	23	36
Steals	9	5
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	18 (1)
Fouls	22	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (2)	12 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (0)	33 (7)
Field Goals	44-90	47-81
At-the-Rim FG	23-32	25-30
Midrange FG	10-24	7-20
2-Point FG	33-56	32-50
3-Point FG	11-34	15-31
Free Throws	16-21	19-30
Fast Break Pts	8	14
2nd Chance Pts	13	14
Points in Paint	62	60
Pts off Turnovers	27	15
Bench Points	37	49
Biggest Lead	1	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg