Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, January 19, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	12	Heat	34%	113	112	104.7	107	117.9
	5	Warriors	66%	118	135	126.2	107	97.9

Prediction updated: Jan 20, 2026 03:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+23

-19

111

GSW

+11

-13

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.01 50.5%

GSW

1.29 64.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	30.3	21	55%	3	3	0	0	3	3	1	2	5-6	83%	5-9	56%	2-7	29%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.7	9	50%	5	3	0	0	0	1	3	2	3-4	75%	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	26.9	18	60%	5	1	0	0	3	3	2	3	4-4	100%	4-7	57%	2-7	29%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	25.9	4	14%	12	3	0	0	1	0	5	7	2-2	100%	1-8	13%	0-5	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	25.0	7	44%	6	3	3	1	2	3	3	3	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	1-4	25%

Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	26.6	13	59%	8	2	2	1	2	3	3	5	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	2-7	29%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.8	10	42%	5	9	1	0	4	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-8	25%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	18.3	15	75%	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	6-7	86%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	13.8	3	50%	2	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	8.2	5	83%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	3.9	2	100%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.9	5	83%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	3.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right costochondral; Injury to the ribs
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	51%	54	30	6	2	19	18	20	34	21-24	88%	26-54	48%	13-45	29%

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12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	30.3	21	55%	3	3	0	0	3	3	1	2	5-6	83%	5-9	56%	2-7	29%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.7	9	50%	5	3	0	0	0	1	3	2	3-4	75%	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	26.9	18	60%	5	1	0	0	3	3	2	3	4-4	100%	4-7	57%	2-7	29%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	25.9	4	14%	12	3	0	0	1	0	5	7	2-2	100%	1-8	13%	0-5	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	25.0	7	44%	6	3	3	1	2	3	3	3	4-4	100%	0-2	0%	1-4	25%

Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	26.6	13	59%	8	2	2	1	2	3	3	5	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	2-7	29%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.8	10	42%	5	9	1	0	4	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-8	25%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	18.3	15	75%	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	6-7	86%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	13.8	3	50%	2	1	0	0	3	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	8.2	5	83%	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	3.9	2	100%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.9	5	83%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	3.9	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right costochondral; Injury to the ribs
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	51%	54	30	6	2	19	18	20	34	21-24	88%	26-54	48%	13-45	29%

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5 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Moses Moody #4 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 24	29.2	13	65%	4	2	3	0	0	1	1	3	2-3	67%	1-3	33%	3-6	50%
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 38	27.8	19	68%	3	11	0	0	3	5	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	5-10	50%
Will Richard #3 · SF · 6'3" 206 · 23	26.0	5	50%	3	7	2	1	0	3	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Quinten Post #21 · C · 7'0" 238 · 26	21.3	15	94%	9	3	0	2	3	3	2	7	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	4-5	80%
Jimmy Butler III #10 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	20.8	17	65%	3	4	2	0	2	0	2	1	5-5	100%	6-10	60%	0-1	0%

Brandin Podziemski #2 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 23	29.6	24	60%	6	4	1	0	2	2	1	5	3-3	100%	6-12	50%	3-7	43%
Buddy Hield #7 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 33	23.0	16	89%	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	4-7	57%
Al Horford #20 · C · 6'8" 240 · 40	19.1	10	56%	8	2	1	0	0	2	0	8	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-7	29%
Gary Payton II #0 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 33	16.4	6	75%	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 30	13.4	0	0%	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 26	7.7	7	88%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Malevy Leons #33 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 26	2.9	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
LJ Cryer #18 · PG · 6'0" 200 · 24
Jonathan Kuminga #1 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Draymond Green #23 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
De'Anthony Melton #8 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Seth Curry #31 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sciatic Nerve; Irritation
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	64%	46	38	11	3	13	17	8	38	13-17	76%	25-44	57%	24-51	47%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	GSW
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	GSW

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.01 50.5%

GSW

1.29 64.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

61%

GSW

79%

Midrange

MIA

29%

GSW

30%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

19.5

29%

43%

GSW

36.0

47%

71%

Free Throws

MIA

88%

GSW

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Powell	21	55%	10.5 / 19
A. Wiggins	18	60%	9.0 / 15
K. Ware	15	75%	7.5 / 10
S. Fontecchio	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Jaquez	10	42%	5.0 / 12
P. Larsson	9	50%	4.5 / 9
D. Mitchell	7	44%	3.5 / 8
D. Smith	5	83%	2.5 / 3
M. Gardner	5	83%	2.5 / 3
B. Adebayo	4	14%	2.0 / 14
K. Jakučionis	3	50%	1.5 / 3
N. Jović	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Johnson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Podziemski	24	60%	12.0 / 20
S. Curry	19	68%	9.5 / 14
J. Butler	17	65%	8.5 / 13
B. Hield	16	89%	8.0 / 9
Q. Post	15	94%	7.5 / 8
M. Moody	13	65%	6.5 / 10
A. Horford	10	56%	5.0 / 9
T. Jackson-Davis	7	88%	3.5 / 4
G. Payton	6	75%	3.0 / 4
W. Richard	5	50%	2.5 / 5
L. Cryer	3	50%	1.5 / 3
P. Spencer	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 19 114.0	MIA 104.7 GSW 126.2 +21.5
Pace	1 104.3 18 99.9	MIA 117.9 +19.9 GSW 97.9
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 10 14.7	MIA 12.2 −2.5 GSW 14.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 13 55.0%	MIA 46.0% GSW 64.2% +18.2%
TO %	5 12.6% 28 14.9%	MIA 14.8% GSW 12.0% −2.8%
ORB %	17 25.4% 14 25.8%	MIA 34.5% +15.5% GSW 19.0%
FTrt	14 26.8 24 23.8	MIA 24.2 +6.3 GSW 17.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 1 70.6%	MIA 76.9% GSW 77.6% +0.7%
STL %	17 8.3% 3 9.6%	MIA 5.6% GSW 10.3% +4.7%
BLK %	28 7.9% 27 8.0%	MIA 4.5% GSW 5.6% +1.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 11 57.1%	MIA 50.5% GSW 64.3% +13.8%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 5 66.7%	MIA 60.6% GSW 79.2% +18.6%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 22 42.1%	MIA 28.6% GSW 30.0% +1.4%
3P %	11 36.1% 20 35.6%	MIA 28.9% GSW 47.1% +18.2%
FT %	11 79.2% 6 80.7%	MIA 87.5% +11.0% GSW 76.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 24 29.5%	MIA 33.3% +8.1% GSW 25.3%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 3 20.8%	MIA 21.2% GSW 21.1% −0.2%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 1 49.7%	MIA 45.5% GSW 53.7% +8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	GSW
Possessions	107	107
Possession Minutes	21.8	26.2
Points	112	135
Rebounds	54	46
Assists	30	38
Steals	6	11
Blocks	2	3
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	13 (1)
Fouls	18	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	20 (3)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (2)	38 (1)
Field Goals	39-99	49-95
At-the-Rim FG	20-33	19-24
Midrange FG	6-21	6-20
2-Point FG	26-54	25-44
3-Point FG	13-45	24-51
Free Throws	21-24	13-17
Fast Break Pts	14	13
2nd Chance Pts	17	8
Points in Paint	52	50
Pts off Turnovers	14	27
Bench Points	53	66
Biggest Lead	7	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg