Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	19	Hawks	44%	115	127	118.7	107	103.9
	16	Heat	56%	117	115	107.5	107	110.3

Prediction updated: Feb 4, 2026 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+11

-9

109

MIA

+16

-11

112

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.17 58.3%

MIA

1.04 51.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

19 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	36.3	29	66%	11	11	0	0	2	4	0	11	2-4	50%	9-13	69%	3-7	43%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	31.4	19	45%	5	7	1	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	5-9	56%	3-12	25%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.9	7	44%	7	2	1	0	1	1	0	7	0-2	0%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	21.6	2	25%	1	5	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	11.1	2	25%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%

Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	27.6	13	50%	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	2-7	29%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	26.4	26	72%	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	3	0-0	-	4-9	44%	6-9	67%
Luke Kennard #4 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	23.1	12	100%	5	1	0	1	0	3	1	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-6	67%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	21.6	6	60%	6	2	3	1	1	3	3	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	16.6	8	80%	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	1.4	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	NWT - Not With Team \| Dental; Fracture
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #0 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	58%	47	34	7	2	9	22	8	39	8-13	62%	28-51	55%	21-50	42%

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19 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	36.3	29	66%	11	11	0	0	2	4	0	11	2-4	50%	9-13	69%	3-7	43%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	31.4	19	45%	5	7	1	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	5-9	56%	3-12	25%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	22.9	7	44%	7	2	1	0	1	1	0	7	0-2	0%	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	21.6	2	25%	1	5	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	11.1	2	25%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-1	0%

Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	27.6	13	50%	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	1-1	100%	3-6	50%	2-7	29%
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	26.4	26	72%	4	2	0	0	2	0	1	3	0-0	-	4-9	44%	6-9	67%
Luke Kennard #4 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	23.1	12	100%	5	1	0	1	0	3	1	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-6	67%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	21.6	6	60%	6	2	3	1	1	3	3	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	16.6	8	80%	2	0	1	0	1	3	0	2	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	1.4	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	NWT - Not With Team \| Dental; Fracture
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #0 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/A; Illness
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	58%	47	34	7	2	9	22	8	39	8-13	62%	28-51	55%	21-50	42%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.8	18	69%	4	5	0	0	3	1	1	3	4-4	100%	7-9	78%	0-3	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 30	33.6	18	56%	6	2	0	1	0	2	2	4	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	2-8	25%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	30.2	16	40%	14	1	1	0	3	3	2	12	8-8	100%	4-13	31%	0-3	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	28.1	4	40%	1	10	0	0	1	3	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	22.0	14	78%	6	0	2	0	0	1	0	6	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	2-3	67%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	27.5	21	58%	8	3	0	0	2	2	2	6	2-3	67%	8-14	57%	1-3	33%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	18.6	2	20%	1	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	17.8	9	41%	8	0	1	0	0	0	2	6	0-2	0%	3-7	43%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	16.1	5	50%	3	2	2	0	1	1	2	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	7.6	5	63%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	1.4	3	150%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Tightness
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	DND – Personal
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	INACTIVE
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	52%	53	25	7	1	11	15	12	41	23-26	88%	34-64	53%	8-32	25%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.17 58.3%

MIA

1.04 51.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

52%

MIA

63%

Midrange

ATL

57%

MIA

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

31.5

42%

63%

MIA

12.0

25%

38%

Free Throws

ATL

62%

MIA

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	29	66%	14.5 / 22
C. McCollum	26	72%	13.0 / 18
N. Alexander-Walker	19	45%	9.5 / 21
C. Kispert	13	50%	6.5 / 13
L. Kennard	12	100%	6.0 / 6
A. Newell	8	80%	4.0 / 5
Z. Risacher	7	44%	3.5 / 8
M. Gueye	6	60%	3.0 / 5
K. Wallace	3	150%	1.5 / 1
D. Daniels	2	25%	1.0 / 4
C. Koloko	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez	21	58%	10.5 / 18
P. Larsson	18	69%	9.0 / 13
S. Fontecchio	18	56%	9.0 / 16
B. Adebayo	16	40%	8.0 / 20
M. Gardner	14	78%	7.0 / 9
K. Ware	9	41%	4.5 / 11
K. Jakučionis	5	50%	2.5 / 5
N. Jović	5	63%	2.5 / 4
D. Mitchell	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Young	3	150%	1.5 / 1
D. Smith	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 12 115.8	ATL 118.7 +11.2 MIA 107.5
Pace	4 102.5 1 104.3	ATL 103.9 MIA 110.3 +6.4
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 30 13.1	ATL 13.9 MIA 13.1 −0.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 18 54.2%	ATL 58.9% +11.0% MIA 47.9%
TO %	8 13.0% 5 12.6%	ATL 7.8% −3.0% MIA 10.8%
ORB %	20 24.3% 17 25.4%	ATL 16.3% MIA 23.5% +7.2%
FTrt	27 23.4 14 26.8	ATL 12.9 MIA 27.1 +14.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 10 66.3%	ATL 69.4% +9.9% MIA 59.5%
STL %	6 9.1% 17 8.3%	ATL 6.5% MIA 6.5%
BLK %	18 8.8% 28 7.9%	ATL 3.1% +1.1% MIA 2.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 15 56.8%	ATL 58.3% +6.5% MIA 51.8%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 20 63.6%	ATL 52.2% MIA 63.3% +11.1%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 21 42.4%	ATL 57.1% +13.0% MIA 44.1%
3P %	5 37.1% 11 36.1%	ATL 42.0% +17.0% MIA 25.0%
FT %	20 77.4% 11 79.2%	ATL 61.5% MIA 88.5% +27.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 11 32.9%	ATL 22.8% MIA 31.3% +8.5%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 17 26.5%	ATL 27.7% −7.7% MIA 35.4%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 18 40.6%	ATL 49.5% +16.2% MIA 33.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	MIA
Possessions	107	107
Possession Minutes	24.7	23.3
Points	127	115
Rebounds	47	53
Assists	34	25
Steals	7	7
Blocks	2	1
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	11 (2)
Fouls	22	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (3)	12 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (3)	41 (2)
Field Goals	49-101	42-96
At-the-Rim FG	12-23	19-30
Midrange FG	16-28	15-34
2-Point FG	28-51	34-64
3-Point FG	21-50	8-32
Free Throws	8-13	23-26
Fast Break Pts	14	20
2nd Chance Pts	10	8
Points in Paint	50	66
Pts off Turnovers	18	11
Bench Points	68	45
Biggest Lead	23	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg