Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	20	Thunder	29%	108	106	101.0	105	102.7
	3	Spurs	71%	115	116	110.5	105	107.4

Prediction updated: Feb 5, 2026 02:27 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+11

-14

102

SAS

+21

-12

114

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.01 50.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

20 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylin Williams #6 · C · 6'9" 240 · 24	39.7	24	63%	12	4	0	2	2	4	0	12	8-8	100%	2-4	50%	4-11	36%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 27	37.7	20	67%	4	6	5	0	3	1	0	4	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	4-7	57%
Isaiah Joe #11 · PG · 6'4" 165 · 27	37.1	2	14%	5	2	1	2	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-3	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	35.2	25	63%	9	2	1	0	3	0	2	7	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-7	57%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	34.4	13	41%	3	5	3	1	3	4	1	2	0-0	-	5-11	45%	1-5	20%

Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	20.0	14	47%	3	5	0	0	2	4	1	2	0-0	-	1-6	17%	4-9	44%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	19.9	5	42%	3	2	0	2	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	15.9	3	75%	7	0	0	2	0	1	3	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Injury Management
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Eye; Corneal Abrasion
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Patellofemoral joint; Inflammation
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Abdominal; Strain
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Abdominal; Strain
Mason Plumlee #22 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	53%	46	26	10	9	14	16	9	37	13-14	93%	18-46	39%	19-47	40%

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20 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylin Williams #6 · C · 6'9" 240 · 24	39.7	24	63%	12	4	0	2	2	4	0	12	8-8	100%	2-4	50%	4-11	36%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SF · 6'5" 190 · 27	37.7	20	67%	4	6	5	0	3	1	0	4	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	4-7	57%
Isaiah Joe #11 · PG · 6'4" 165 · 27	37.1	2	14%	5	2	1	2	1	1	2	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-3	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	35.2	25	63%	9	2	1	0	3	0	2	7	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-7	57%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	34.4	13	41%	3	5	3	1	3	4	1	2	0-0	-	5-11	45%	1-5	20%

Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	20.0	14	47%	3	5	0	0	2	4	1	2	0-0	-	1-6	17%	4-9	44%
Chris Youngblood #3 · SG · 6'4" 221 · 24	19.9	5	42%	3	2	0	2	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	15.9	3	75%	7	0	0	2	0	1	3	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Adductor; Injury Management
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Eye; Corneal Abrasion
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Patellofemoral joint; Inflammation
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Surgical Recovery
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Abdominal; Strain
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Abdominal; Strain
Mason Plumlee #22 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive - Coaches Decision
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	53%	46	26	10	9	14	16	9	37	13-14	93%	18-46	39%	19-47	40%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.2	15	58%	4	10	3	1	1	1	0	4	5-6	83%	5-7	71%	0-3	0%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	28.4	22	58%	14	2	0	2	2	1	3	11	3-8	38%	8-14	57%	1-2	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	27.4	8	67%	5	3	0	0	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	26.5	14	47%	3	4	3	2	3	5	1	2	2-2	100%	6-11	55%	0-3	0%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 25	25.0	5	25%	3	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-7	14%

Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	29.6	9	45%	7	1	0	2	2	2	2	5	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-7	29%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	28.6	25	69%	6	2	0	1	0	2	1	5	1-2	50%	6-9	67%	4-8	50%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	15.1	4	29%	15	2	1	0	0	0	9	6	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.3	11	61%	5	1	2	0	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-6	50%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	12.9	3	50%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Stanley Umude #17 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Soreness
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Hyperextension
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Soreness
Jeremy Sochan #10 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Quad; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	50%	63	26	11	8	12	15	18	45	12-20	60%	31-59	53%	14-42	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.01 50.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

41%

SAS

56%

Midrange

OKC

38%

SAS

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

28.5

40%

61%

SAS

21.0

33%

50%

Free Throws

OKC

93%

SAS

60%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Williams	25	63%	12.5 / 20
J. Williams	24	63%	12.0 / 19
A. Wiggins	20	67%	10.0 / 15
B. Barnhizer	14	47%	7.0 / 15
C. Wallace	13	41%	6.5 / 16
C. Youngblood	5	42%	2.5 / 6
B. Carlson	3	75%	1.5 / 2
I. Joe	2	14%	1.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Johnson	25	69%	12.5 / 18
V. Wembanyama	22	58%	11.0 / 19
D. Fox	15	58%	7.5 / 13
S. Castle	14	47%	7.0 / 15
C. Bryant	11	61%	5.5 / 9
H. Barnes	9	45%	4.5 / 10
J. Champagnie	8	67%	4.0 / 6
D. Vassell	5	25%	2.5 / 10
L. Kornet	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. McLaughlin	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 3 118.9	OKC 101.0 SAS 110.5 +9.5
Pace	15 100.3 13 100.5	OKC 102.7 SAS 107.4 +4.7
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 18 14.2	OKC 14.0 SAS 13.4 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 7 55.9%	OKC 50.0% SAS 51.5% +1.5%
TO %	1 11.8% 4 12.5%	OKC 12.4% SAS 11.3% −1.1%
ORB %	28 22.3% 10 26.2%	OKC 16.7% SAS 32.7% +16.0%
FTrt	17 26.1 12 27.3	OKC 15.1 SAS 19.8 +4.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 13 64.6%	OKC 70.3% +12.5% SAS 57.8%
STL %	4 9.6% 24 7.5%	OKC 9.5% SAS 10.5% +1.0%
BLK %	2 11.0% 10 10.0%	OKC 15.3% SAS 17.4% +2.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 6 58.1%	OKC 52.5% +2.1% SAS 50.4%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 9 65.8%	OKC 40.9% SAS 55.6% +14.7%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 5 45.1%	OKC 37.5% SAS 42.9% +5.4%
3P %	9 36.5% 15 35.9%	OKC 40.4% +7.1% SAS 33.3%
FT %	3 81.7% 12 78.7%	OKC 92.9% +32.9% SAS 60.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 7 34.4%	OKC 23.7% SAS 44.6% +20.9%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 7 23.4%	OKC 25.8% SAS 13.9% −11.9%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 15 42.2%	OKC 50.5% +9.0% SAS 41.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	SAS
Possessions	105	105
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	106	116
Rebounds	46	63
Assists	26	26
Steals	10	11
Blocks	9	8
Turnovers (Team)	14 (0)	12 (2)
Fouls	16	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (2)	18 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (1)	45 (2)
Field Goals	37-93	45-101
At-the-Rim FG	9-22	25-45
Midrange FG	9-24	6-14
2-Point FG	18-46	31-59
3-Point FG	19-47	14-42
Free Throws	13-14	12-20
Fast Break Pts	14	16
2nd Chance Pts	9	14
Points in Paint	26	56
Pts off Turnovers	15	12
Bench Points	22	52
Biggest Lead	0	22

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg