Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Rockets	52%	113	105	106.1	99	96.1
	14	Heat	48%	112	115	117.3	98	101.1

Prediction updated: Feb 28, 2026 08:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+21

-11

109

MIA

+16

-13

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

0.97 48.6%

MIA

1.14 56.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 23	39.0	20	45%	11	4	1	0	4	3	4	7	6-12	50%	7-15	47%	0-1	0%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	37.3	32	70%	5	8	0	2	1	1	0	5	6-6	100%	10-12	83%	2-8	25%
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 25	35.8	10	42%	11	5	1	0	1	3	4	7	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-7	29%
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	35.8	14	50%	4	5	1	0	0	3	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-11	36%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	34.8	13	43%	6	3	2	0	3	4	4	2	1-2	50%	6-13	46%	0-1	0%

Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	15.5	0	0%	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	13.1	7	50%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	12.0	4	50%	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	8.5	5	63%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	7.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #13 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	49%	47	26	6	2	11	18	15	32	14-21	67%	32-59	54%	9-36	25%

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9 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 23	39.0	20	45%	11	4	1	0	4	3	4	7	6-12	50%	7-15	47%	0-1	0%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	37.3	32	70%	5	8	0	2	1	1	0	5	6-6	100%	10-12	83%	2-8	25%
Tari Eason #17 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 25	35.8	10	42%	11	5	1	0	1	3	4	7	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-7	29%
Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	35.8	14	50%	4	5	1	0	0	3	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-11	36%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	34.8	13	43%	6	3	2	0	3	4	4	2	1-2	50%	6-13	46%	0-1	0%

Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	15.5	0	0%	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	13.1	7	50%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	12.0	4	50%	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	8.5	5	63%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 27	7.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	0.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · PF · 6'11" 220 · 23	DNP – Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #13 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	49%	47	26	6	2	11	18	15	32	14-21	67%	32-59	54%	9-36	25%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	35.0	24	60%	11	1	1	0	1	3	4	7	3-6	50%	6-12	50%	3-5	60%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	34.5	20	63%	4	4	0	0	3	4	1	3	7-8	88%	5-7	71%	1-5	20%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	33.1	18	75%	2	3	1	0	4	3	1	1	0-0	-	6-8	75%	2-4	50%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.0	12	55%	6	4	0	3	1	1	2	4	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	1-4	25%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	25.0	10	50%	3	5	0	0	1	3	1	2	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-4	50%

Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	28.6	13	65%	15	1	0	1	1	1	5	10	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-3	33%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	24.9	14	58%	3	3	0	0	2	2	0	3	0-1	0%	7-11	64%	0-1	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	11.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	8.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	7.3	4	100%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Injury Management
Trevor Keels #3 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	57%	47	22	3	4	13	18	14	33	14-20	70%	34-59	58%	11-31	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

0.97 48.6%

MIA

1.14 56.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

58%

MIA

70%

Midrange

HOU

52%

MIA

36%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

13.5

25%

38%

MIA

16.5

35%

53%

Free Throws

HOU

67%

MIA

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Durant	32	70%	16.0 / 23
A. Thompson	20	45%	10.0 / 22
R. Sheppard	14	50%	7.0 / 14
A. Sengun	13	43%	6.5 / 16
T. Eason	10	42%	5.0 / 12
C. Capela	7	50%	3.5 / 7
A. Holiday	5	63%	2.5 / 4
J. Green	4	50%	2.0 / 4
D. Finney-Smith	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Okogie	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	24	60%	12.0 / 20
P. Larsson	20	63%	10.0 / 16
T. Herro	18	75%	9.0 / 12
J. Jaquez	14	58%	7.0 / 12
K. Ware	13	65%	6.5 / 10
A. Wiggins	12	55%	6.0 / 11
D. Mitchell	10	50%	5.0 / 10
D. Smith	4	100%	2.0 / 2
K. Jakučionis	0	-	0.0 / 1
S. Fontecchio	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 12 115.8	HOU 106.1 MIA 117.3 +11.3
Pace	29 96.9 1 104.3	HOU 96.1 MIA 101.1 +5.0
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 30 13.1	HOU 15.0 MIA 14.2 −0.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 18 54.2%	HOU 47.9% MIA 56.1% +8.2%
TO %	25 14.7% 5 12.6%	HOU 10.3% −2.1% MIA 12.4%
ORB %	1 34.8% 17 25.4%	HOU 31.3% +0.9% MIA 30.4%
FTrt	18 26.0 14 26.8	HOU 22.1 MIA 22.2 +0.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 10 66.3%	HOU 63.4% +14.5% MIA 48.9%
STL %	9 8.7% 17 8.3%	HOU 6.1% +3.0% MIA 3.1%
BLK %	4 10.9% 28 7.9%	HOU 3.4% MIA 6.8% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 15 56.8%	HOU 48.6% MIA 56.9% +8.3%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 20 63.6%	HOU 57.7% MIA 70.3% +12.6%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 21 42.4%	HOU 51.5% +15.1% MIA 36.4%
3P %	10 36.4% 11 36.1%	HOU 25.0% MIA 35.5% +10.5%
FT %	25 76.3% 11 79.2%	HOU 66.7% MIA 70.0% +3.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 11 32.9%	HOU 27.4% MIA 41.1% +13.7%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 17 26.5%	HOU 34.7% MIA 24.4% −10.3%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 18 40.6%	HOU 37.9% +3.5% MIA 34.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	HOU	MIA
Possessions	99	98
Possession Minutes	24.7	23.3
Points	105	115
Rebounds	47	47
Assists	26	22
Steals	6	3
Blocks	2	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	18	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (6)	14 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (2)	33 (4)
Field Goals	41-95	45-90
At-the-Rim FG	15-26	26-37
Midrange FG	17-33	8-22
2-Point FG	32-59	34-59
3-Point FG	9-36	11-31
Free Throws	14-21	14-20
Fast Break Pts	18	16
2nd Chance Pts	16	15
Points in Paint	50	66
Pts off Turnovers	10	13
Bench Points	16	31
Biggest Lead	10	13

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg