Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, February 28, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	11	Lakers	46%	112	129	133.0	97	93.7
	12	Warriors	54%	113	101	105.2	96	99.5

Prediction updated: Mar 1, 2026 01:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

LAL

+16

-9

104

GSW

+11

-10

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

LAL

1.25 62.6%

GSW

1.04 52.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

11 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	29.3	26	68%	6	8	1	1	2	2	0	6	4-4	100%	5-8	63%	4-9	44%
Marcus Smart #36 · SF · 6'3" 220 · 32	28.9	8	67%	5	1	2	0	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
LeBron James #23 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 41	28.3	22	73%	7	9	1	0	4	1	2	5	4-5	80%	3-7	43%	4-6	67%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	27.8	18	75%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	2-4	50%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 28	19.6	4	33%	10	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	27.0	15	68%	5	3	1	0	1	3	2	3	0-3	0%	3-4	75%	3-6	50%
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	27.0	16	80%	3	3	1	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	15.3	6	75%	5	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	12.8	4	50%	2	1	1	3	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	12.2	2	25%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Kobe Bufkin #18 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	6.0	8	57%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	6.0	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; -
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	63%	47	29	7	5	9	11	10	37	14-20	70%	29-49	59%	19-41	46%

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11 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	29.3	26	68%	6	8	1	1	2	2	0	6	4-4	100%	5-8	63%	4-9	44%
Marcus Smart #36 · SF · 6'3" 220 · 32	28.9	8	67%	5	1	2	0	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
LeBron James #23 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 41	28.3	22	73%	7	9	1	0	4	1	2	5	4-5	80%	3-7	43%	4-6	67%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	27.8	18	75%	1	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	2-4	50%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 28	19.6	4	33%	10	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0-2	0%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	27.0	15	68%	5	3	1	0	1	3	2	3	0-3	0%	3-4	75%	3-6	50%
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	27.0	16	80%	3	3	1	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	4-7	57%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	15.3	6	75%	5	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	12.8	4	50%	2	1	1	3	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	12.2	2	25%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Kobe Bufkin #18 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	6.0	8	57%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	6.0	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; -
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	63%	47	29	7	5	9	11	10	37	14-20	70%	29-49	59%	19-41	46%

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12 Golden State Warriors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandin Podziemski #2 · PG · 6'4" 205 · 23	29.9	9	35%	7	6	1	0	1	2	1	6	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-6	0%
Moses Moody #4 · SF · 6'5" 211 · 24	29.8	12	55%	3	3	2	0	2	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	4-10	40%
Gui Santos #15 · PF · 6'7" 185 · 24	27.3	14	58%	4	2	0	0	1	3	2	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	2-7	29%
Draymond Green #23 · C · 6'6" 230 · 36	23.9	7	44%	6	6	0	0	2	0	0	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-5	20%
De'Anthony Melton #8 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	23.9	10	38%	1	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-7	14%	2-5	40%

Pat Spencer #61 · PG · 6'2" 205 · 30	27.0	4	50%	3	4	0	0	0	2	2	1	2-3	67%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Al Horford #20 · C · 6'8" 240 · 40	22.1	8	100%	5	2	0	2	0	1	0	5	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Gary Payton II #0 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 33	15.6	12	60%	1	3	2	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	6-7	86%	0-3	0%
Nate Williams #19 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 27	14.8	7	70%	1	2	0	0	2	4	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Quinten Post #21 · C · 7'0" 238 · 26	13.3	8	50%	7	0	1	0	0	0	2	5	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Malevy Leons #33 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 26	7.8	6	75%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Will Richard #3 · SG · 6'3" 206 · 23	4.5	4	67%	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Kristaps Porziņģis #7 · C · 7'2" 240 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| General; Illness
LJ Cryer #18 · PG · 6'0" 200 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Seth Curry #31 · SG · 6'1" 185 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Sciatic Nerve; Irritation
Jimmy Butler III #10 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgery
Stephen Curry #30 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 38	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Patellofemoral; Pain Syndrome
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	101	52%	40	32	6	4	10	19	9	31	7-9	78%	29-47	62%	12-44	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	GSW
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	GSW

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

LAL

1.25 62.6%

GSW

1.04 52.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

LAL

73%

GSW

72%

Midrange

LAL

43%

GSW

27%

3PT | Effective 3PT

LAL

28.5

46%

70%

GSW

18.0

27%

41%

Free Throws

LAL

70%

GSW

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	26	68%	13.0 / 19
L. James	22	73%	11.0 / 15
A. Reaves	18	75%	9.0 / 12
L. Kennard	16	80%	8.0 / 10
J. LaRavia	15	68%	7.5 / 11
M. Smart	8	67%	4.0 / 6
K. Bufkin	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Hayes	6	75%	3.0 / 4
D. Ayton	4	33%	2.0 / 6
M. Kleber	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Vanderbilt	2	25%	1.0 / 4
D. Knecht	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Warriors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Santos	14	58%	7.0 / 12
M. Moody	12	55%	6.0 / 11
G. Payton	12	60%	6.0 / 10
D. Melton	10	38%	5.0 / 13
B. Podziemski	9	35%	4.5 / 13
A. Horford	8	100%	4.0 / 4
Q. Post	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Green	7	44%	3.5 / 8
N. Williams	7	70%	3.5 / 5
M. Leons	6	75%	3.0 / 4
P. Spencer	4	50%	2.0 / 4
W. Richard	4	67%	2.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	10 117.1 19 114.0	LAL 133.0 +27.8 GSW 105.2
Pace	21 99.2 18 99.9	LAL 93.7 GSW 99.5 +5.8
Avg. Poss. Time	6 14.8 10 14.7	LAL 15.4 GSW 14.5 −0.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 13 55.0%	LAL 63.9% +12.3% GSW 51.6%
TO %	19 13.9% 28 14.9%	LAL 9.2% −1.2% GSW 10.4%
ORB %	22 23.9% 14 25.8%	LAL 24.4% +4.8% GSW 19.6%
FTrt	1 32.0 24 23.8	LAL 22.2 +12.3 GSW 9.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	19 61.5% 1 70.6%	LAL 60.4% GSW 78.0% +17.6%
STL %	12 8.6% 3 9.6%	LAL 7.2% +0.9% GSW 6.3%
BLK %	23 8.3% 27 8.0%	LAL 10.6% +2.4% GSW 8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 59.4% 11 57.1%	LAL 62.6% +10.5% GSW 52.1%
Rim FG%	1 72.0% 5 66.7%	LAL 73.1% +0.9% GSW 72.2%
Mid FG%	4 46.8% 22 42.1%	LAL 43.5% +16.2% GSW 27.3%
3P %	14 35.9% 20 35.6%	LAL 46.3% +19.0% GSW 27.3%
FT %	26 76.3% 6 80.7%	LAL 70.0% GSW 77.8% +7.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.7% 24 29.5%	LAL 28.9% GSW 39.6% +10.7%
Mid Att. %	26 30.0% 3 20.8%	LAL 25.6% GSW 12.1% −13.5%
3P Att. %	22 39.4% 1 49.7%	LAL 45.6% GSW 48.4% +2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	LAL	GSW
Possessions	97	96
Possession Minutes	24.8	23.2
Points	129	101
Rebounds	47	40
Assists	29	32
Steals	7	6
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls	11	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (6)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	37 (4)	31 (0)
Field Goals	48-90	41-91
At-the-Rim FG	19-26	26-36
Midrange FG	10-23	3-11
2-Point FG	29-49	29-47
3-Point FG	19-41	12-44
Free Throws	14-20	7-9
Fast Break Pts	13	7
2nd Chance Pts	12	11
Points in Paint	56	56
Pts off Turnovers	15	8
Bench Points	51	49
Biggest Lead	32	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg