Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 1, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Timberwolves	42%	116	117	117.0	100	104.6
	6	Nuggets	58%	119	108	106.9	101	96.8

Prediction updated: Mar 1, 2026 08:06 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIN

-13

DEN

+14

-13

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIN

1.24 62.2%

DEN

1.07 53.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 25	39.0	21	53%	3	6	1	2	2	2	0	3	0-2	0%	6-10	60%	3-9	33%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 34	37.6	7	39%	15	4	3	1	1	4	5	10	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · PG · 6'4" 203 · 29	35.7	17	77%	3	5	2	0	0	2	0	3	2-3	67%	0-0	-	5-10	50%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 25	32.7	20	77%	1	3	1	0	2	4	0	1	2-2	100%	9-9	100%	0-3	0%
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	32.1	14	50%	9	7	1	1	3	2	2	7	3-5	60%	4-9	44%	1-3	33%

Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 27	26.1	11	50%	6	2	1	1	2	3	0	6	0-1	0%	4-6	67%	1-5	20%
Ayo Dosunmu #13 · SG · 6'4" 201 · 26	21.2	9	75%	2	4	2	0	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Bones Hyland #8 · PG · 6'2" 169 · 25	15.6	18	113%	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	3-4	75%	3-4	75%	3-3	100%
Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joan Beringer #19 · PF · 6'11" 230 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Phillips #4 · SF · 6'6" 201 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Enrique Freeman #25 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Rocco Zikarsky #44 · C · 7'3" 227 · 20	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	41	33	11	5	13	21	7	34	11-19	58%	32-49	65%	14-36	39%

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8 Minnesota Timberwolves

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Anthony Edwards #5 · SG · 6'4" 225 · 25	39.0	21	53%	3	6	1	2	2	2	0	3	0-2	0%	6-10	60%	3-9	33%
Rudy Gobert #27 · C · 7'1" 258 · 34	37.6	7	39%	15	4	3	1	1	4	5	10	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	0-1	0%
Donte DiVincenzo #0 · PG · 6'4" 203 · 29	35.7	17	77%	3	5	2	0	0	2	0	3	2-3	67%	0-0	-	5-10	50%
Jaden McDaniels #3 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 25	32.7	20	77%	1	3	1	0	2	4	0	1	2-2	100%	9-9	100%	0-3	0%
Julius Randle #30 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	32.1	14	50%	9	7	1	1	3	2	2	7	3-5	60%	4-9	44%	1-3	33%

Naz Reid #11 · C · 6'9" 264 · 27	26.1	11	50%	6	2	1	1	2	3	0	6	0-1	0%	4-6	67%	1-5	20%
Ayo Dosunmu #13 · SG · 6'4" 201 · 26	21.2	9	75%	2	4	2	0	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Bones Hyland #8 · PG · 6'2" 169 · 25	15.6	18	113%	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	3-4	75%	3-4	75%	3-3	100%
Terrence Shannon Jr. #1 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mike Conley #10 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joan Beringer #19 · PF · 6'11" 230 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jaylen Clark #22 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Joe Ingles #7 · SF · 6'8" 220 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Julian Phillips #4 · SF · 6'6" 201 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Enrique Freeman #25 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Rocco Zikarsky #44 · C · 7'3" 227 · 20	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	62%	41	33	11	5	13	21	7	34	11-19	58%	32-49	65%	14-36	39%

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6 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	38.8	25	50%	5	4	0	0	3	0	0	5	5-7	71%	7-16	44%	2-6	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	37.6	15	68%	6	1	0	0	0	2	3	3	5-5	100%	5-7	71%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	37.1	35	60%	13	9	1	2	5	1	5	8	4-6	67%	14-22	64%	1-4	25%
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	23.2	0	0%	4	3	0	0	1	4	0	4	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-4	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	16.9	2	25%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	33.5	17	94%	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	4-7	57%	2-2	100%	3-4	75%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	28.1	6	50%	4	1	1	0	2	4	2	2	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	9.6	2	50%	5	0	0	1	1	1	1	4	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	6.4	4	100%	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	6.2	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Strain
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	54%	44	21	2	4	13	14	11	33	20-27	74%	35-63	56%	6-22	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIN	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	MIN	DEN

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIN

1.24 62.2%

DEN

1.07 53.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIN

71%

DEN

65%

Midrange

MIN

60%

DEN

49%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIN

21.0

39%

58%

DEN

9.0

27%

41%

Free Throws

MIN

58%

DEN

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Timberwolves

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Edwards	21	53%	10.5 / 20
J. McDaniels	20	77%	10.0 / 13
B. Hyland	18	113%	9.0 / 8
D. DiVincenzo	17	77%	8.5 / 11
J. Randle	14	50%	7.0 / 14
N. Reid	11	50%	5.5 / 11
A. Dosunmu	9	75%	4.5 / 6
R. Gobert	7	39%	3.5 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	35	60%	17.5 / 29
J. Murray	25	50%	12.5 / 25
T. Hardaway	17	94%	8.5 / 9
C. Braun	15	68%	7.5 / 11
B. Brown	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Pickett	4	100%	2.0 / 2
J. Strawther	2	25%	1.0 / 4
J. Valančiūnas	2	50%	1.0 / 2
Z. Nnaji	2	33%	1.0 / 3
C. Johnson	0	-	0.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	13 115.7 1 121.3	MIN 117.0 +10.1 DEN 106.9
Pace	9 101.4 19 99.4	MIN 104.6 +7.8 DEN 96.8
Avg. Poss. Time	15 14.4 9 14.7	MIN 13.8 −1.1 DEN 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	6 55.9% 1 57.7%	MIN 62.4% +10.6% DEN 51.8%
TO %	18 13.9% 3 12.1%	MIN 13.0% DEN 12.6% −0.4%
ORB %	15 25.7% 24 23.6%	MIN 17.5% DEN 24.4% +6.9%
FTrt	7 28.5 4 29.4	MIN 22.4 DEN 31.8 +9.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	21 61.2% 9 66.5%	MIN 71.7% +20.5% DEN 51.2%
STL %	13 8.6% 30 6.8%	MIN 11.0% +9.0% DEN 2.0%
BLK %	6 10.4% 29 7.6%	MIN 7.9% DEN 8.2% +0.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	8 57.6% 1 60.1%	MIN 62.2% +8.7% DEN 53.5%
Rim FG%	10 65.7% 12 65.1%	MIN 70.8% +5.4% DEN 65.4%
Mid FG%	14 43.7% 2 47.0%	MIN 60.0% +11.4% DEN 48.6%
3P %	6 37.0% 1 39.6%	MIN 38.9% +11.6% DEN 27.3%
FT %	29 75.2% 5 80.8%	MIN 57.9% DEN 74.1% +16.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	9 33.0% 19 31.1%	MIN 28.2% DEN 30.6% +2.4%
Mid Att. %	10 25.0% 21 28.1%	MIN 29.4% −14.1% DEN 43.5%
3P Att. %	16 42.0% 17 40.8%	MIN 42.4% +16.5% DEN 25.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	MIN	DEN
Possessions	100	101
Possession Minutes	22.9	25.1
Points	117	108
Rebounds	41	44
Assists	33	21
Steals	11	2
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	21	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (1)	11 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (0)	33 (3)
Field Goals	46-85	41-85
At-the-Rim FG	17-24	17-26
Midrange FG	15-25	18-37
2-Point FG	32-49	35-63
3-Point FG	14-36	6-22
Free Throws	11-19	20-27
Fast Break Pts	30	6
2nd Chance Pts	4	10
Points in Paint	52	60
Pts off Turnovers	22	11
Bench Points	38	31
Biggest Lead	14	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg