Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 2, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Nuggets	80%	125	128	125.5	102	102.4
	30	Jazz	20%	115	125	126.3	99	98.6

Prediction updated: Mar 3, 2026 01:36 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+10

-15

UTA

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.4%

UTA

1.28 63.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.6	45	90%	2	8	2	0	7	3	0	2	11-12	92%	5-6	83%	8-13	62%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	36.4	22	65%	12	5	0	2	3	5	2	10	10-11	91%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	32.5	11	69%	6	4	0	0	1	1	2	4	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	29.0	15	63%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	3-9	33%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · PF · 6'11" 265 · 34	17.2	13	81%	6	1	1	0	0	3	3	3	5-5	100%	4-6	67%	0-0	-

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	31.7	4	40%	3	4	1	0	1	5	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	31.5	7	32%	6	1	0	0	2	0	0	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-8	13%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	18.6	8	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	5.7	3	150%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Strain
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Inflammation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	67%	38	25	4	2	15	20	8	30	32-35	91%	24-35	69%	16-39	41%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.6	45	90%	2	8	2	0	7	3	0	2	11-12	92%	5-6	83%	8-13	62%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	36.4	22	65%	12	5	0	2	3	5	2	10	10-11	91%	6-11	55%	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	32.5	11	69%	6	4	0	0	1	1	2	4	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	29.0	15	63%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	3-9	33%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · PF · 6'11" 265 · 34	17.2	13	81%	6	1	1	0	0	3	3	3	5-5	100%	4-6	67%	0-0	-

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	31.7	4	40%	3	4	1	0	1	5	1	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	31.5	7	32%	6	1	0	0	2	0	0	6	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-8	13%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	18.6	8	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	5.7	3	150%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Strain
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Inflammation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	67%	38	25	4	2	15	20	8	30	32-35	91%	24-35	69%	16-39	41%

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30 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 20	31.6	18	56%	4	0	1	0	0	5	2	2	4-4	100%	4-9	44%	2-5	40%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	30.2	36	75%	2	2	4	0	4	2	0	2	4-5	80%	10-13	77%	4-9	44%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	29.4	19	79%	8	6	1	0	0	5	2	6	8-9	89%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	26.9	2	17%	0	3	2	0	0	6	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-4	0%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 21	11.0	3	75%	1	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	25.9	15	68%	3	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	4-8	50%
John Konchar #55 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	23.4	6	100%	2	1	0	2	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	22.9	8	36%	3	2	1	0	1	2	0	3	2-2	100%	0-3	0%	2-7	29%
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	20.3	10	63%	2	6	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-0	-
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	18.4	8	80%	8	1	0	1	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Blake Hinson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mo Bamba #11 · C · 7'0" 231 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vince Williams Jr. #0 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury management
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Nose; Injury recovery
Jaren Jackson Jr. #20 · C · 6'10" 242 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury recovery
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Impingement
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury recovery
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	64%	33	24	11	3	9	28	8	25	22-26	85%	29-47	62%	15-39	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	UTA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.4%

UTA

1.28 63.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

93%

UTA

77%

Midrange

DEN

52%

UTA

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

24.0

41%

62%

UTA

22.5

38%

58%

Free Throws

DEN

91%

UTA

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	45	90%	22.5 / 25
N. Jokić	22	65%	11.0 / 17
J. Strawther	15	63%	7.5 / 12
J. Valančiūnas	13	81%	6.5 / 8
C. Braun	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Pickett	8	100%	4.0 / 4
T. Hardaway	7	32%	3.5 / 11
B. Brown	4	40%	2.0 / 5
Z. Nnaji	3	150%	1.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. George	36	75%	18.0 / 24
K. Filipowski	19	79%	9.5 / 12
A. Bailey	18	56%	9.0 / 16
S. Mykhailiuk	15	68%	7.5 / 11
I. Collier	10	63%	5.0 / 8
B. Sensabaugh	8	36%	4.0 / 11
O. Tshiebwe	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Konchar	6	100%	3.0 / 3
C. Williams	3	75%	1.5 / 2
E. Harkless	2	17%	1.0 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 22 112.9	DEN 125.5 UTA 126.3 +0.8
Pace	19 99.4 2 103.4	DEN 102.4 +3.8 UTA 98.6
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 27 13.8	DEN 14.1 −0.5 UTA 14.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 20 53.6%	DEN 64.9% +5.0% UTA 59.9%
TO %	3 12.1% 23 14.4%	DEN 14.4% UTA 8.5% −5.9%
ORB %	24 23.6% 12 26.2%	DEN 24.2% +3.1% UTA 21.1%
FTrt	4 29.4 10 27.7	DEN 47.3 +17.1 UTA 30.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 2 69.6%	DEN 62.5% +8.0% UTA 54.5%
STL %	30 6.8% 14 8.5%	DEN 3.9% UTA 11.1% +7.2%
BLK %	29 7.6% 30 7.5%	DEN 4.3% UTA 8.6% +4.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 18 56.4%	DEN 67.4% +3.6% UTA 63.8%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 17 64.5%	DEN 92.9% +15.6% UTA 77.3%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 8 44.4%	DEN 52.4% +4.4% UTA 48.0%
3P %	1 39.6% 25 34.5%	DEN 41.0% +2.5% UTA 38.5%
FT %	5 80.8% 13 78.6%	DEN 91.4% +6.8% UTA 84.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 17 31.3%	DEN 18.9% UTA 25.6% +6.7%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 23 28.4%	DEN 28.4% −0.7% UTA 29.1%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 21 40.3%	DEN 52.7% +7.4% UTA 45.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	UTA
Possessions	102	99
Possession Minutes	23.9	24.1
Points	128	125
Rebounds	38	33
Assists	25	24
Steals	4	11
Blocks	2	3
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	9 (0)
Fouls	20	28
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (2)	8 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (7)	25 (4)
Field Goals	40-74	44-86
At-the-Rim FG	13-14	17-22
Midrange FG	11-21	12-25
2-Point FG	24-35	29-47
3-Point FG	16-39	15-39
Free Throws	32-35	22-26
Fast Break Pts	15	25
2nd Chance Pts	14	7
Points in Paint	44	50
Pts off Turnovers	8	27
Bench Points	22	47
Biggest Lead	9	6

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg