Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 8, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Rockets	40%	109	120	118.8	101	102.0
	3	Spurs	60%	112	145	142.2	102	101.0

Prediction updated: Mar 8, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+13

-12

102

SAS

-7

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.17 58.3%

SAS

1.42 71.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	35.9	23	61%	7	6	1	0	0	4	2	5	7-8	88%	8-14	57%	0-1	0%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	33.5	23	72%	5	4	0	2	1	1	1	4	8-9	89%	6-9	67%	1-3	33%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 23	30.7	17	77%	5	3	0	0	0	3	1	4	6-7	86%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	27.3	16	62%	6	3	0	0	5	4	2	4	2-3	67%	7-11	64%	0-1	0%
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	20.1	2	17%	6	2	1	0	1	4	2	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	35.1	17	53%	3	3	1	1	4	4	0	3	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	3-10	30%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	20.8	8	100%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	14.4	2	33%	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	7.5	5	36%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 28	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	4.2	7	88%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #13 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	58%	37	25	5	5	12	23	8	29	28-32	88%	34-59	58%	8-28	29%

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8 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	35.9	23	61%	7	6	1	0	0	4	2	5	7-8	88%	8-14	57%	0-1	0%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	33.5	23	72%	5	4	0	2	1	1	1	4	8-9	89%	6-9	67%	1-3	33%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 23	30.7	17	77%	5	3	0	0	0	3	1	4	6-7	86%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	27.3	16	62%	6	3	0	0	5	4	2	4	2-3	67%	7-11	64%	0-1	0%
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	20.1	2	17%	6	2	1	0	1	4	2	4	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-2	0%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	35.1	17	53%	3	3	1	1	4	4	0	3	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	3-10	30%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	20.8	8	100%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	14.4	2	33%	3	1	1	2	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	7.5	5	36%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	100%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 28	6.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	4.2	7	88%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #13 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	58%	37	25	5	5	12	23	8	29	28-32	88%	34-59	58%	8-28	29%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.0	20	63%	2	10	0	0	2	4	1	1	1-2	50%	8-11	73%	1-4	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	30.3	29	85%	8	1	2	4	0	1	1	7	9-10	90%	7-8	88%	2-5	40%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	29.9	5	31%	5	3	0	1	1	1	0	5	5-6	83%	0-3	0%	0-3	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	28.6	11	79%	5	4	2	1	0	0	2	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	25.9	23	72%	3	5	0	0	2	5	1	2	6-7	86%	4-9	44%	3-4	75%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	25.9	19	79%	2	6	0	0	1	4	0	2	0-0	-	5-8	63%	3-4	75%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	25.8	20	77%	1	2	0	0	0	4	1	0	0-0	-	4-6	67%	4-7	57%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	14.1	2	100%	1	3	0	0	0	4	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.0	7	58%	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	3.6	3	150%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	3.6	3	150%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	3.6	3	150%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	3.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	145	71%	32	38	4	6	7	26	6	26	22-27	81%	30-48	63%	21-40	53%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

HOU

1.17 58.3%

SAS

1.42 71.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

64%

SAS

71%

Midrange

HOU

52%

SAS

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

12.0

29%

43%

SAS

31.5

53%

79%

Free Throws

HOU

88%

SAS

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Thompson	23	61%	11.5 / 19
K. Durant	23	72%	11.5 / 16
J. Smith	17	77%	8.5 / 11
R. Sheppard	17	53%	8.5 / 16
A. Sengun	16	62%	8.0 / 13
D. Finney-Smith	8	100%	4.0 / 4
J. Green	7	88%	3.5 / 4
A. Holiday	5	36%	2.5 / 7
T. Eason	2	17%	1.0 / 6
C. Capela	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Okogie	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	29	85%	14.5 / 17
S. Castle	23	72%	11.5 / 16
D. Fox	20	63%	10.0 / 16
K. Johnson	20	77%	10.0 / 13
D. Harper	19	79%	9.5 / 12
J. Champagnie	11	79%	5.5 / 7
C. Bryant	7	58%	3.5 / 6
D. Vassell	5	31%	2.5 / 8
L. Waters	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. McLaughlin	3	150%	1.5 / 1
K. Olynyk	3	150%	1.5 / 1
L. Kornet	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 3 118.9	HOU 118.8 SAS 142.2 +23.3
Pace	29 96.9 13 100.5	HOU 102.0 +1.0 SAS 101.0
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 18 14.2	HOU 14.1 −0.1 SAS 14.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 7 55.9%	HOU 52.9% SAS 69.9% +17.0%
TO %	25 14.7% 4 12.5%	HOU 10.6% SAS 7.4% −3.2%
ORB %	1 34.8% 10 26.2%	HOU 23.5% +6.4% SAS 17.1%
FTrt	18 26.0 12 27.3	HOU 36.8 +6.1 SAS 30.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 13 64.6%	HOU 59.5% SAS 74.5% +15.0%
STL %	9 8.7% 24 7.5%	HOU 5.0% +1.1% SAS 3.9%
BLK %	4 10.9% 10 10.0%	HOU 10.4% +0.2% SAS 10.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 6 58.1%	HOU 58.3% SAS 71.1% +12.8%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 9 65.8%	HOU 64.3% SAS 71.0% +6.7%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 5 45.1%	HOU 51.6% +4.5% SAS 47.1%
3P %	10 36.4% 15 35.9%	HOU 28.6% SAS 52.5% +23.9%
FT %	25 76.3% 12 78.7%	HOU 87.5% +6.0% SAS 81.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 7 34.4%	HOU 32.2% SAS 35.2% +3.0%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 7 23.4%	HOU 35.6% SAS 19.3% −16.3%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 15 42.2%	HOU 32.2% SAS 45.5% +13.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	HOU	SAS
Possessions	101	102
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	120	145
Rebounds	37	32
Assists	25	38
Steals	5	4
Blocks	5	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (0)	7 (1)
Fouls	23	26
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (5)	6 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (2)	26 (8)
Field Goals	42-87	51-88
At-the-Rim FG	18-28	22-31
Midrange FG	16-31	8-17
2-Point FG	34-59	30-48
3-Point FG	8-28	21-40
Free Throws	28-32	22-27
Fast Break Pts	16	15
2nd Chance Pts	12	12
Points in Paint	58	56
Pts off Turnovers	11	25
Bench Points	39	57
Biggest Lead	1	30

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg