Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	30	Wizards	12%	108	129	108.4	119	109.6
	14	Heat	88%	123	150	126.1	119	129.6

Prediction updated: Mar 10, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

-23

105

MIA

103

+17

-16

120

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.23 61.4%

MIA

1.26 63.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · PF · 6'9" 180 · 20	39.6	22	69%	4	2	1	0	0	4	0	4	6-7	86%	2-6	33%	4-7	57%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	36.0	12	67%	4	6	1	0	7	1	0	4	2-4	50%	5-6	83%	0-1	0%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	34.6	10	45%	6	7	1	0	1	3	0	6	6-8	75%	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	22.6	17	71%	2	2	1	0	2	4	0	2	0-1	0%	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	19.7	28	74%	6	1	0	2	1	3	2	4	0-0	-	8-12	67%	4-7	57%

Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	25.1	6	75%	5	3	0	0	1	5	1	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	23.0	17	61%	1	0	0	1	3	5	0	1	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	18.0	8	50%	5	2	1	0	2	3	1	4	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	14.7	6	50%	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	6.7	3	50%	2	1	0	0	2	5	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; ; Foot; Sprain
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Julian Reese #15 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	61%	35	25	6	3	23	34	4	31	22-29	76%	31-53	58%	15-36	42%

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30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · PF · 6'9" 180 · 20	39.6	22	69%	4	2	1	0	0	4	0	4	6-7	86%	2-6	33%	4-7	57%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	36.0	12	67%	4	6	1	0	7	1	0	4	2-4	50%	5-6	83%	0-1	0%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	34.6	10	45%	6	7	1	0	1	3	0	6	6-8	75%	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	22.6	17	71%	2	2	1	0	2	4	0	2	0-1	0%	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	19.7	28	74%	6	1	0	2	1	3	2	4	0-0	-	8-12	67%	4-7	57%

Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	25.1	6	75%	5	3	0	0	1	5	1	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	23.0	17	61%	1	0	0	1	3	5	0	1	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	18.0	8	50%	5	2	1	0	2	3	1	4	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	14.7	6	50%	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	6.7	3	50%	2	1	0	0	2	5	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; ; Foot; Sprain
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Julian Reese #15 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	61%	35	25	6	3	23	34	4	31	22-29	76%	31-53	58%	15-36	42%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	41.9	83	67%	9	3	2	2	5	3	1	8	36-43	84%	13-21	62%	7-22	32%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	29.8	5	63%	5	6	1	1	1	4	1	4	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · PF · 6'5" 225 · 25	25.7	4	50%	8	2	3	0	2	4	3	5	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	24.4	10	56%	2	1	2	1	1	1	0	2	4-5	80%	3-4	75%	0-3	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	24.1	12	60%	7	5	1	0	3	1	3	4	2-2	100%	5-5	100%	0-4	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	27.9	5	50%	6	8	0	0	0	1	2	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	22.8	5	63%	3	5	4	0	3	4	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	22.3	18	113%	6	1	1	0	1	3	3	3	3-3	100%	3-3	100%	3-4	75%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	18.9	8	50%	1	0	2	1	0	1	1	0	1-4	25%	2-2	100%	1-4	25%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	1.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	1.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Strain
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Quadriceps; Soreness
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Strain
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Injury Management
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Sesamoiditis
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	150	63%	48	31	16	5	16	22	15	33	47-59	80%	32-47	68%	13-43	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.23 61.4%

MIA

1.26 63.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

65%

MIA

78%

Midrange

WAS

52%

MIA

30%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

22.5

42%

63%

MIA

19.5

30%

45%

Free Throws

WAS

76%

MIA

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Sarr	28	74%	14.0 / 19
W. Riley	22	69%	11.0 / 16
T. Johnson	17	71%	8.5 / 12
J. Hardy	17	61%	8.5 / 14
B. Carrington	12	67%	6.0 / 9
B. Coulibaly	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Champagnie	8	50%	4.0 / 8
A. Gill	6	75%	3.0 / 4
S. Cooper	6	50%	3.0 / 6
T. Vukcevic	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	83	67%	41.5 / 62
S. Fontecchio	18	113%	9.0 / 8
D. Mitchell	12	60%	6.0 / 10
P. Larsson	10	56%	5.0 / 9
K. Johnson	8	50%	4.0 / 8
K. Jakučionis	5	63%	2.5 / 4
J. Jaquez	5	50%	2.5 / 5
D. Smith	5	63%	2.5 / 4
M. Gardner	4	50%	2.0 / 4
V. Goldin	0	-	0.0 / 1
T. Keels	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 109.7 12 115.8	WAS 108.4 MIA 126.1 +17.6
Pace	5 102.5 1 104.3	WAS 109.6 MIA 129.6 +20.0
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 30 13.1	WAS 13.1 MIA 11.1 −2.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.5% 18 54.2%	WAS 60.1% +2.9% MIA 57.2%
TO %	26 14.7% 5 12.6%	WAS 19.1% MIA 12.8% −6.3%
ORB %	21 24.0% 17 25.4%	WAS 10.8% MIA 32.6% +21.8%
FTrt	26 23.5 14 26.8	WAS 32.6 MIA 65.6 +33.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	24 59.9% 10 66.3%	WAS 54.3% MIA 68.9% +14.6%
STL %	22 7.8% 17 8.3%	WAS 5.0% MIA 13.4% +8.4%
BLK %	9 10.0% 28 7.9%	WAS 6.4% MIA 9.4% +3.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	26 55.4% 15 56.8%	WAS 61.4% MIA 63.0% +1.6%
Rim FG%	15 64.7% 20 63.6%	WAS 65.4% MIA 78.4% +13.0%
Mid FG%	26 41.3% 21 42.4%	WAS 51.9% +21.9% MIA 30.0%
3P %	16 35.9% 11 36.1%	WAS 41.7% +11.5% MIA 30.2%
FT %	23 76.6% 11 79.2%	WAS 75.9% MIA 79.7% +3.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.6% 11 32.9%	WAS 29.2% MIA 41.1% +11.9%
Mid Att. %	25 29.1% 17 26.5%	WAS 30.3% MIA 11.1% −19.2%
3P Att. %	20 40.3% 18 40.6%	WAS 40.4% MIA 47.8% +7.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	119	119
Possession Minutes	26.1	22.0
Points	129	150
Rebounds	35	48
Assists	25	31
Steals	6	16
Blocks	3	5
Turnovers (Team)	23 (1)	16 (1)
Fouls	34	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (5)	15 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	33 (3)
Field Goals	46-89	45-90
At-the-Rim FG	17-26	29-37
Midrange FG	14-27	3-10
2-Point FG	31-53	32-47
3-Point FG	15-36	13-43
Free Throws	22-29	47-59
Fast Break Pts	5	22
2nd Chance Pts	13	19
Points in Paint	50	64
Pts off Turnovers	9	31
Bench Points	40	36
Biggest Lead	0	28

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg