Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Celtics	48%	111	116	116.0	100	95.4
	3	Spurs	52%	112	125	125.0	100	105.1

Prediction updated: Mar 10, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

BOS

-8

SAS

+11

-11

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.17 58.6%

SAS

1.26 63.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 32	40.0	34	63%	5	7	0	1	1	3	2	3	9-11	82%	8-11	73%	3-11	27%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	34.3	11	55%	7	3	2	0	0	1	1	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Jayson Tatum #0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 28	26.8	24	50%	5	2	2	0	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	6-10	60%	4-14	29%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 27	19.3	5	50%	4	1	0	1	0	3	1	3	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Jaylen Brown #7 · SG · 6'6" 223 · 29	14.7	8	50%	2	7	1	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-0	-

Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	35.4	6	50%	6	3	0	0	2	0	1	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	33.2	22	100%	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	6-9	67%
Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	23.6	3	50%	0	1	1	0	1	5	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Hugo González #28 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 20	9.7	2	50%	5	0	0	2	1	2	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 22	1.2	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	0.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Tonje #8 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Spasm
Nikola Vučević #4 · C · 6'9" 265 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ring Finger; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	59%	37	27	6	4	8	18	5	32	13-17	76%	23-38	61%	19-51	37%

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2 Boston Celtics

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Derrick White #9 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 32	40.0	34	63%	5	7	0	1	1	3	2	3	9-11	82%	8-11	73%	3-11	27%
Sam Hauser #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 28	34.3	11	55%	7	3	2	0	0	1	1	6	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Jayson Tatum #0 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 28	26.8	24	50%	5	2	2	0	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	6-10	60%	4-14	29%
Neemias Queta #88 · C · 7'0" 248 · 27	19.3	5	50%	4	1	0	1	0	3	1	3	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Jaylen Brown #7 · SG · 6'6" 223 · 29	14.7	8	50%	2	7	1	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-0	-

Baylor Scheierman #55 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 25	35.4	6	50%	6	3	0	0	2	0	1	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Ron Harper Jr. #13 · SF · 6'5" 233 · 26	33.2	22	100%	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-2	100%	6-9	67%
Luka Garza #52 · C · 6'10" 243 · 27	23.6	3	50%	0	1	1	0	1	5	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Hugo González #28 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 20	9.7	2	50%	5	0	0	2	1	2	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Jordan Walsh #27 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 22	1.2	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Amari Williams #77 · PF · 6'11" 250 · 24	0.9	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Max Shulga #44 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 24	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Tonje #8 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Payton Pritchard #11 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Spasm
Nikola Vučević #4 · C · 6'9" 265 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ring Finger; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	59%	37	27	6	4	8	18	5	32	13-17	76%	23-38	61%	19-51	37%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	36.6	39	75%	11	3	1	2	6	2	2	9	9-12	75%	3-5	60%	8-15	53%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	35.1	25	83%	3	9	1	0	1	3	2	1	1-3	33%	9-11	82%	2-3	67%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	34.2	18	64%	9	6	0	0	2	3	2	7	3-4	75%	3-4	75%	3-8	38%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	32.1	14	70%	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	26.8	0	0%	5	0	0	0	1	3	0	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-4	0%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	25.9	9	64%	4	5	0	0	1	3	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	1-1	100%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.5	8	57%	6	0	0	0	0	3	1	5	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	13.4	8	50%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	11.1	4	40%	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	0.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Impingement
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| “”; Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	63%	44	27	3	2	11	19	9	35	17-25	68%	24-38	63%	20-47	43%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	BOS	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

BOS

1.17 58.6%

SAS

1.26 63.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

BOS

70%

SAS

62%

Midrange

BOS

50%

SAS

65%

3PT | Effective 3PT

BOS

28.5

37%

56%

SAS

30.0

43%

64%

Free Throws

BOS

76%

SAS

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Celtics

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. White	34	63%	17.0 / 27
J. Tatum	24	50%	12.0 / 24
R. Harper	22	100%	11.0 / 11
S. Hauser	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Brown	8	50%	4.0 / 8
B. Scheierman	6	50%	3.0 / 6
N. Queta	5	50%	2.5 / 5
L. Garza	3	50%	1.5 / 3
H. González	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Walsh	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	39	75%	19.5 / 26
D. Fox	25	83%	12.5 / 15
S. Castle	18	64%	9.0 / 14
D. Vassell	14	70%	7.0 / 10
D. Harper	9	64%	4.5 / 7
K. Johnson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
C. Bryant	8	50%	4.0 / 8
L. Kornet	4	40%	2.0 / 5
J. Champagnie	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	2 120.0 3 118.9	BOS 116.0 SAS 125.0 +9.0
Pace	30 95.5 13 100.5	BOS 95.4 SAS 105.1 +9.7
Avg. Poss. Time	2 15.7 18 14.2	BOS 15.1 SAS 13.7 −1.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	11 55.3% 7 55.9%	BOS 57.9% SAS 63.5% +5.6%
TO %	2 12.0% 4 12.5%	BOS 7.7% −3.4% SAS 11.1%
ORB %	6 29.2% 10 26.2%	BOS 12.5% SAS 22.0% +9.5%
FTrt	30 20.7 12 27.3	BOS 19.1 SAS 29.4 +10.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	30 58.5% 13 64.6%	BOS 64.3% +2.9% SAS 61.4%
STL %	25 7.4% 24 7.5%	BOS 6.0% +3.0% SAS 3.0%
BLK %	5 10.4% 10 10.0%	BOS 10.5% +5.2% SAS 5.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.21 and 2.21.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	13 56.9% 6 58.1%	BOS 58.6% SAS 63.1% +4.5%
Rim FG%	2 68.9% 9 65.8%	BOS 70.0% +8.1% SAS 61.9%
Mid FG%	12 44.2% 5 45.1%	BOS 50.0% SAS 64.7% +14.7%
3P %	8 36.7% 15 35.9%	BOS 37.3% SAS 42.6% +5.3%
FT %	7 80.7% 12 78.7%	BOS 76.5% +8.5% SAS 68.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30 24.4% 7 34.4%	BOS 22.5% SAS 24.7% +2.2%
Mid Att. %	24 28.9% 7 23.4%	BOS 20.2% SAS 20.0% −0.2%
3P Att. %	4 46.7% 15 42.2%	BOS 57.3% +2.0% SAS 55.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.03 and 2.03.

Game Totals	BOS	SAS
Possessions	100	100
Possession Minutes	25.2	22.8
Points	116	125
Rebounds	37	44
Assists	27	27
Steals	6	3
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	8 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	18	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (2)	9 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (1)	35 (8)
Field Goals	42-89	44-85
At-the-Rim FG	14-20	13-21
Midrange FG	9-18	11-17
2-Point FG	23-38	24-38
3-Point FG	19-51	20-47
Free Throws	13-17	17-25
Fast Break Pts	10	13
2nd Chance Pts	3	8
Points in Paint	34	40
Pts off Turnovers	15	13
Bench Points	34	29
Biggest Lead	7	13

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg