Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 15, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	25	Pacers	38%	111	123	128.1	96	95.6
	20	Bucks	62%	115	134	139.6	96	96.4

Prediction updated: Mar 15, 2026 07:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+14

-18

MIL

+14

-9

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.34 66.8%

MIL

1.33 66.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	29.5	14	54%	8	6	0	1	0	0	3	5	0-2	0%	4-6	67%	2-6	33%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	28.8	32	100%	2	1	0	1	3	1	1	1	5-5	100%	3-4	75%	7-10	70%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	28.1	9	41%	2	11	1	0	2	1	0	2	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	26.6	3	38%	4	0	2	2	2	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	23.5	10	45%	7	2	0	0	1	4	3	4	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	0-0	-

Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	24.6	9	90%	6	5	0	0	2	2	3	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	19.6	16	89%	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	3-6	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	16.4	11	79%	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	4	2-3	67%	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Injury/Illness - Right Calf; Strain
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	13.1	9	90%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-3	67%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	10.3	2	50%	2	3	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	4.9	3	150%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	67%	40	34	5	6	18	15	10	30	18-23	78%	21-39	54%	21-42	50%

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25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	29.5	14	54%	8	6	0	1	0	0	3	5	0-2	0%	4-6	67%	2-6	33%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	28.8	32	100%	2	1	0	1	3	1	1	1	5-5	100%	3-4	75%	7-10	70%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	28.1	9	41%	2	11	1	0	2	1	0	2	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	0-1	0%
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	26.6	3	38%	4	0	2	2	2	5	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-3	33%
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	23.5	10	45%	7	2	0	0	1	4	3	4	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	0-0	-

Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	24.6	9	90%	6	5	0	0	2	2	3	3	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	19.6	16	89%	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	3-6	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	16.4	11	79%	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	4	2-3	67%	0-0	-	3-7	43%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	Injury/Illness - Right Calf; Strain
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	13.1	9	90%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-3	67%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	10.3	2	50%	2	3	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	4.9	3	150%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Andrew Nembhard #2 · SG · 6'4" 191 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	67%	40	34	5	6	18	15	10	30	18-23	78%	21-39	54%	21-42	50%

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20 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 24	36.8	20	77%	2	7	3	0	3	2	0	2	1-2	50%	5-7	71%	3-5	60%
Kyle Kuzma #18 · SF · 6'8" 221 · 31	35.8	8	57%	3	8	2	1	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	29.9	13	81%	4	0	1	1	1	3	0	4	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 26	24.4	12	86%	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-7	57%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	23.1	31	55%	14	8	0	0	1	1	6	8	9-13	69%	11-22	50%	0-0	-

Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	26.6	29	66%	10	3	2	0	1	1	4	6	1-2	50%	5-10	50%	6-11	55%
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	22.2	13	93%	2	2	1	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-5	60%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	21.7	6	75%	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	14.1	2	33%	3	1	0	0	0	3	3	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	3.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 34	0.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Cam Thomas #24 · SG · 6'3" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cormac Ryan #30 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 203 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Synovitis
Ousmane Dieng #21 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	134	66%	40	31	10	2	9	17	13	27	13-19	68%	26-46	57%	23-44	52%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	IND	MIL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.34 66.8%

MIL

1.33 66.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

67%

MIL

64%

Midrange

IND

39%

MIL

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

31.5

50%

75%

MIL

34.5

52%

78%

Free Throws

IND

78%

MIL

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nesmith	32	100%	16.0 / 16
J. Huff	16	89%	8.0 / 9
J. Walker	14	54%	7.0 / 13
O. Toppin	11	79%	5.5 / 7
I. Zubac	10	45%	5.0 / 11
T. McConnell	9	41%	4.5 / 11
K. Brown	9	90%	4.5 / 5
T. Peter	9	90%	4.5 / 5
Q. Jackson	5	50%	2.5 / 5
J. Slawson	3	38%	1.5 / 4
M. Potter	3	150%	1.5 / 1
K. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	31	55%	15.5 / 28
B. Portis	29	66%	14.5 / 22
R. Rollins	20	77%	10.0 / 13
M. Turner	13	81%	6.5 / 8
T. Prince	13	93%	6.5 / 7
A. Green	12	86%	6.0 / 7
K. Kuzma	8	57%	4.0 / 7
G. Harris	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Sims	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 24 112.3	IND 128.1 MIL 139.6 +11.5
Pace	10 101.4 24 98.1	IND 95.6 MIL 96.4 +0.8
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 7 14.8	IND 15.1 MIL 14.9 −0.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 3 56.5%	IND 64.8% MIL 67.2% +2.4%
TO %	14 13.6% 24 14.7%	IND 17.3% MIL 8.4% −8.9%
ORB %	29 21.7% 30 21.1%	IND 27.0% MIL 30.2% +3.2%
FTrt	20 25.2 29 22.3	IND 28.4 +7.3 MIL 21.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 17 63.3%	IND 81.0% +17.7% MIL 63.3%
STL %	28 7.2% 23 7.5%	IND 5.2% MIL 10.4% +5.2%
BLK %	26 8.1% 25 8.2%	IND 13.0% +7.9% MIL 5.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 9 57.5%	IND 66.8% +0.5% MIL 66.3%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 4 67.1%	IND 66.7% +2.4% MIL 64.3%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 20 42.6%	IND 38.9% MIL 44.4% +5.5%
3P %	18 35.6% 2 38.7%	IND 50.0% MIL 52.3% +2.3%
FT %	17 77.6% 30 73.0%	IND 78.3% +9.9% MIL 68.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 27 28.2%	IND 25.9% MIL 31.1% +5.2%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 16 26.1%	IND 22.2% MIL 20.0% −2.2%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 5 45.7%	IND 51.9% +3.0% MIL 48.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Game Totals	IND	MIL
Possessions	96	96
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	123	134
Rebounds	40	40
Assists	34	31
Steals	5	10
Blocks	6	2
Turnovers (Team)	18 (1)	9 (0)
Fouls	15	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (4)	13 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (1)	27 (0)
Field Goals	42-81	49-90
At-the-Rim FG	14-21	18-28
Midrange FG	7-18	8-18
2-Point FG	21-39	26-46
3-Point FG	21-42	23-44
Free Throws	18-23	13-19
Fast Break Pts	10	15
2nd Chance Pts	15	16
Points in Paint	30	38
Pts off Turnovers	13	27
Bench Points	55	50
Biggest Lead	10	19

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg