Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	1	Thunder	95%	122	132	129.4	102	103.0
	29	Wizards	5%	100	111	111.0	100	99.0

Prediction updated: Mar 21, 2026 08:51 PM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+19

-13

108

WAS

+13

-15

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.22 61.1%

WAS

1.12 56.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	31.8	40	67%	3	7	1	0	3	3	1	2	5-8	63%	16-25	64%	1-2	50%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	26.9	18	75%	10	0	0	2	1	3	3	7	6-6	100%	6-8	75%	0-1	0%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	25.1	9	50%	20	10	2	0	2	2	7	13	1-4	25%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	15.2	14	70%	1	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	4-8	50%	2-2	100%
Cason Wallace #22 · SF · 6'3" 195 · 22	14.7	4	67%	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%

Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	30.5	9	50%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	3-3	100%	0-0	-	2-8	25%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	28.1	18	56%	3	1	0	1	0	2	2	1	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	4-10	40%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	20.6	5	50%	2	0	1	0	4	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-1	100%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	19.7	4	50%	1	5	1	2	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	13.5	11	79%	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	2-4	50%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	8.8	0	0%	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	5.1	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Payton Sandfort #14 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	61%	55	31	6	6	13	16	17	38	21-30	70%	39-63	62%	11-30	37%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	31.8	40	67%	3	7	1	0	3	3	1	2	5-8	63%	16-25	64%	1-2	50%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	26.9	18	75%	10	0	0	2	1	3	3	7	6-6	100%	6-8	75%	0-1	0%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	25.1	9	50%	20	10	2	0	2	2	7	13	1-4	25%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	15.2	14	70%	1	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	4-8	50%	2-2	100%
Cason Wallace #22 · SF · 6'3" 195 · 22	14.7	4	67%	2	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%

Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	30.5	9	50%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	3-3	100%	0-0	-	2-8	25%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	28.1	18	56%	3	1	0	1	0	2	2	1	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	4-10	40%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	20.6	5	50%	2	0	1	0	4	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-1	100%
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	19.7	4	50%	1	5	1	2	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	13.5	11	79%	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	2-4	50%	3-3	100%	1-2	50%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	8.8	0	0%	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	5.1	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Payton Sandfort #14 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Contusion
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	61%	55	31	6	6	13	16	17	38	21-30	70%	39-63	62%	11-30	37%

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29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · PG · 6'7" 195 · 22	33.7	21	66%	4	4	1	2	1	3	0	4	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	3-5	60%
Bub Carrington #7 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	32.6	19	79%	3	3	0	0	2	3	0	3	1-3	33%	3-5	60%	4-7	57%
Will Riley #27 · PF · 6'9" 180 · 20	28.3	9	50%	1	4	0	0	4	1	0	1	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	22.0	14	54%	5	8	1	1	3	3	1	4	2-2	100%	3-7	43%	2-5	40%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	13.8	3	50%	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%

Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	25.8	13	72%	5	1	2	0	1	1	3	2	1-1	100%	6-8	75%	0-1	0%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	25.8	13	59%	5	3	2	0	0	4	0	5	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	19.9	6	25%	7	0	0	0	2	3	3	4	1-3	33%	1-3	33%	1-8	13%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	19.2	10	83%	1	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	18.8	3	25%	2	2	1	0	1	5	0	2	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-3	33%
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain; Right Quad Contusion
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
Julian Reese #15 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	56%	34	28	8	3	15	26	9	25	13-18	72%	25-52	48%	16-39	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	WAS
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	WAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

1.22 61.1%

WAS

1.12 56.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

73%

WAS

52%

Midrange

OKC

46%

WAS

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

16.5

37%

55%

WAS

24.0

41%

62%

Free Throws

OKC

70%

WAS

72%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	40	67%	20.0 / 30
C. Holmgren	18	75%	9.0 / 12
J. McCain	18	56%	9.0 / 16
A. Mitchell	14	70%	7.0 / 10
K. Williams	11	79%	5.5 / 7
I. Hartenstein	9	50%	4.5 / 9
I. Joe	9	50%	4.5 / 9
A. Wiggins	5	50%	2.5 / 5
C. Wallace	4	67%	2.0 / 3
A. Caruso	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Williams	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Coulibaly	21	66%	10.5 / 16
B. Carrington	19	79%	9.5 / 12
A. Sarr	14	54%	7.0 / 13
A. Gill	13	72%	6.5 / 9
J. Watkins	13	59%	6.5 / 11
J. Hardy	10	83%	5.0 / 6
W. Riley	9	50%	4.5 / 9
T. Vukcevic	6	25%	3.0 / 12
J. Champagnie	3	50%	1.5 / 3
S. Cooper	3	25%	1.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 29 109.7	OKC 129.4 +18.4 WAS 111.0
Pace	15 100.3 5 102.5	OKC 103.0 +4.0 WAS 99.0
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 23 14.0	OKC 14.0 −0.6 WAS 14.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 21 53.5%	OKC 59.7% +5.9% WAS 53.8%
TO %	1 11.8% 26 14.7%	OKC 10.9% −2.3% WAS 13.2%
ORB %	28 22.3% 21 24.0%	OKC 40.5% +21.4% WAS 19.1%
FTrt	17 26.1 26 23.5	OKC 32.3 +12.5 WAS 19.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 24 59.9%	OKC 62.0% WAS 68.3% +6.3%
STL %	4 9.6% 22 7.8%	OKC 5.9% WAS 8.0% +2.1%
BLK %	2 11.0% 9 10.0%	OKC 11.5% +6.7% WAS 4.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 26 55.4%	OKC 61.1% +5.0% WAS 56.1%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 15 64.7%	OKC 73.0% +21.1% WAS 51.9%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 26 41.3%	OKC 46.2% +2.2% WAS 44.0%
3P %	9 36.5% 16 35.9%	OKC 36.7% WAS 41.0% +4.3%
FT %	3 81.7% 23 76.6%	OKC 70.0% WAS 72.2% +2.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 22 30.6%	OKC 39.8% +10.1% WAS 29.7%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 25 29.1%	OKC 28.0% WAS 27.5% −0.5%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 20 40.3%	OKC 32.3% WAS 42.9% +10.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	OKC	WAS
Possessions	102	100
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	132	111
Rebounds	55	34
Assists	31	28
Steals	6	8
Blocks	6	3
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	15 (0)
Fouls	16	26
Off. Rebounds (Team)	17 (2)	9 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (1)	25 (3)
Field Goals	50-93	41-91
At-the-Rim FG	27-37	14-27
Midrange FG	12-26	11-25
2-Point FG	39-63	25-52
3-Point FG	11-30	16-39
Free Throws	21-30	13-18
Fast Break Pts	20	20
2nd Chance Pts	20	16
Points in Paint	64	40
Pts off Turnovers	21	12
Bench Points	47	45
Biggest Lead	25	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg