Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 21, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Pacers	16%	110	119	120.2	99	102.6
	7	Spurs	84%	123	134	135.4	99	95.6

Prediction updated: Mar 22, 2026 12:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

-9

SAS

+19

-10

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.25 62.6%

SAS

1.24 62.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 23	34.5	21	105%	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	5-7	71%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	29.5	14	47%	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	2	2-3	67%	6-12	50%	0-2	0%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	27.8	25	74%	1	7	1	0	1	2	0	1	7-9	78%	6-9	67%	2-4	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	24.8	5	36%	2	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Quenton Jackson #29 · SG · 6'4" 173 · 28	15.5	6	60%	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	3	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	1-2	50%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	21.2	9	90%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	19.5	9	75%	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	19.0	11	55%	4	4	0	0	4	0	0	4	1-1	100%	5-5	100%	0-5	0%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	18.3	6	75%	2	4	0	1	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	16.6	4	25%	2	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-2	0%
Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	13.3	9	90%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-4	75%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Rib; Fracture
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	63%	26	38	5	2	9	14	4	22	15-19	79%	28-50	56%	16-35	46%

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22 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 23	34.5	21	105%	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	5-7	71%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	29.5	14	47%	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	2	2-3	67%	6-12	50%	0-2	0%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	27.8	25	74%	1	7	1	0	1	2	0	1	7-9	78%	6-9	67%	2-4	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	24.8	5	36%	2	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Quenton Jackson #29 · SG · 6'4" 173 · 28	15.5	6	60%	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	3	1-1	100%	1-3	33%	1-2	50%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	21.2	9	90%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	19.5	9	75%	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	19.0	11	55%	4	4	0	0	4	0	0	4	1-1	100%	5-5	100%	0-5	0%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	18.3	6	75%	2	4	0	1	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	16.6	4	25%	2	8	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-2	0%
Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	13.3	9	90%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-4	75%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Rib; Fracture
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	63%	26	38	5	2	9	14	4	22	15-19	79%	28-50	56%	16-35	46%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	28.0	24	80%	4	3	0	0	0	4	1	3	5-5	100%	8-9	89%	1-4	25%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	26.9	10	45%	7	2	1	0	1	4	2	5	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-5	0%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.1	20	53%	8	6	1	5	2	2	2	6	3-3	100%	7-14	50%	1-4	25%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	26.1	14	44%	3	7	1	0	3	1	1	2	0-0	-	4-11	36%	2-5	40%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	22.6	12	67%	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	25.3	24	92%	4	4	0	0	0	2	1	3	2-2	100%	8-9	89%	2-3	67%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	21.5	9	64%	8	4	0	1	0	2	5	3	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	21.0	5	63%	9	1	0	0	2	1	0	9	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	17.7	6	75%	0	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-3	67%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	16.5	6	100%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	4.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	4.1	4	100%	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Tightness
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Tightness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	134	62%	49	33	5	6	10	19	13	36	15-17	88%	40-63	63%	13-34	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	IND	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.25 62.6%

SAS

1.24 62.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

60%

SAS

77%

Midrange

IND

52%

SAS

32%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

24.0

46%

69%

SAS

19.5

38%

57%

Free Throws

IND

79%

SAS

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Nembhard	25	74%	12.5 / 17
J. Walker	21	105%	10.5 / 10
P. Siakam	14	47%	7.0 / 15
O. Toppin	11	55%	5.5 / 10
B. Sheppard	9	90%	4.5 / 5
M. Potter	9	75%	4.5 / 6
K. Brown	9	90%	4.5 / 5
Q. Jackson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Huff	6	75%	3.0 / 4
A. Nesmith	5	36%	2.5 / 7
T. McConnell	4	25%	2.0 / 8

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Harper	24	80%	12.0 / 15
K. Johnson	24	92%	12.0 / 13
V. Wembanyama	20	53%	10.0 / 19
D. Fox	14	44%	7.0 / 16
H. Barnes	12	67%	6.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	10	45%	5.0 / 11
L. Kornet	9	64%	4.5 / 7
J. McLaughlin	6	75%	3.0 / 4
L. Waters	6	100%	3.0 / 3
C. Bryant	5	63%	2.5 / 4
B. Biyombo	4	100%	2.0 / 2
K. Olynyk	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 3 118.9	IND 120.2 SAS 135.4 +15.2
Pace	10 101.4 13 100.5	IND 102.6 +7.0 SAS 95.6
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 18 14.2	IND 14.0 −1.0 SAS 15.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 7 55.9%	IND 61.2% SAS 61.3% +0.1%
TO %	14 13.6% 4 12.5%	IND 9.7% −0.6% SAS 10.3%
ORB %	29 21.7% 10 26.2%	IND 10.0% SAS 37.1% +27.1%
FTrt	20 25.2 12 27.3	IND 22.4 +4.9 SAS 17.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 13 64.6%	IND 86.4% +24.1% SAS 62.3%
STL %	28 7.2% 24 7.5%	IND 5.1% SAS 5.1%
BLK %	26 8.1% 10 10.0%	IND 3.2% SAS 12.0% +8.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 6 58.1%	IND 62.6% +0.6% SAS 62.0%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 9 65.8%	IND 60.0% SAS 77.3% +17.3%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 5 45.1%	IND 52.0% +20.4% SAS 31.6%
3P %	18 35.6% 15 35.9%	IND 45.7% +7.5% SAS 38.2%
FT %	17 77.6% 12 78.7%	IND 78.9% SAS 88.2% +9.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 7 34.4%	IND 29.4% SAS 45.4% +15.9%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 7 23.4%	IND 29.4% SAS 19.6% −9.8%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 15 42.2%	IND 41.2% +6.1% SAS 35.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	SAS
Possessions	99	99
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	119	134
Rebounds	26	49
Assists	38	33
Steals	5	5
Blocks	2	6
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	10 (2)
Fouls	14	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	4 (1)	13 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	22 (3)	36 (2)
Field Goals	44-85	53-97
At-the-Rim FG	15-25	34-44
Midrange FG	13-25	6-19
2-Point FG	28-50	40-63
3-Point FG	16-35	13-34
Free Throws	15-19	15-17
Fast Break Pts	12	24
2nd Chance Pts	7	20
Points in Paint	48	76
Pts off Turnovers	15	22
Bench Points	48	54
Biggest Lead	0	28

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg