Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, March 28, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Spurs	88%	120	127	129.6	98	102.9
	26	Bucks	12%	105	95	97.9	97	92.6

Prediction updated: Mar 28, 2026 06:24 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+14

-11

101

MIL

+12

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.27 63.5%

MIL

1.04 52.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	30.7	23	46%	15	6	2	1	3	1	4	11	9-10	90%	7-18	39%	0-3	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	29.3	22	79%	10	10	0	0	3	2	2	8	2-3	67%	7-9	78%	2-4	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	24.1	16	73%	4	1	3	1	0	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-7	57%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	22.9	11	69%	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-7	43%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	20.5	12	67%	2	6	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-1	0%	6-6	100%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.3	16	89%	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-2	100%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	21.4	2	50%	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	21.1	14	88%	1	2	1	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	2-3	67%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	18.4	3	50%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	10.9	4	100%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	6.6	1	13%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	5.3	2	100%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	5.3	1	50%	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	64%	41	35	13	2	11	6	9	32	15-20	75%	35-54	65%	14-35	40%

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2 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	30.7	23	46%	15	6	2	1	3	1	4	11	9-10	90%	7-18	39%	0-3	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	29.3	22	79%	10	10	0	0	3	2	2	8	2-3	67%	7-9	78%	2-4	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	24.1	16	73%	4	1	3	1	0	3	2	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-7	57%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	22.9	11	69%	4	0	2	0	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-7	43%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	20.5	12	67%	2	6	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-1	0%	6-6	100%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.3	16	89%	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	2-2	100%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	21.4	2	50%	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	21.1	14	88%	1	2	1	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	2-3	67%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	18.4	3	50%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	10.9	4	100%	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	6.6	1	13%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	5.3	2	100%	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	5.3	1	50%	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	64%	41	35	13	2	11	6	9	32	15-20	75%	35-54	65%	14-35	40%

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26 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ousmane Dieng #21 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 23	35.7	12	43%	6	5	4	0	4	1	0	6	1-1	100%	4-10	40%	1-4	25%
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	30.2	5	83%	5	3	0	0	0	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	27.8	15	58%	6	1	1	2	0	4	1	5	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	4-9	44%
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	26.1	18	82%	1	2	2	0	2	2	1	0	0-0	-	6-7	86%	2-4	50%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 24	25.4	12	38%	1	4	1	1	5	1	0	1	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	0-7	0%

AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 26	26.6	7	58%	3	3	0	2	0	1	0	3	1-1	100%	0-0	-	2-6	33%
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	25.6	5	31%	3	2	0	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-6	17%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	21.7	10	71%	10	2	0	0	2	1	5	5	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	13.6	11	61%	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-7	43%
Cormac Ryan #30 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	7.2	0	0%	1	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Wrist; Sprain
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Tendinopathy
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Soreness
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Hyperextension; Bone Bruise
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 203 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Synovitis
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 32	Inactive – Personal
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	95	52%	37	22	9	5	18	18	9	28	5-6	83%	24-41	59%	14-46	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.27 63.5%

MIL

1.04 52.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

73%

MIL

71%

Midrange

SAS

52%

MIL

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

21.0

40%

60%

MIL

21.0

30%

46%

Free Throws

SAS

75%

MIL

83%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	23	46%	11.5 / 25
S. Castle	22	79%	11.0 / 14
D. Vassell	16	73%	8.0 / 11
K. Johnson	16	89%	8.0 / 9
D. Harper	14	88%	7.0 / 8
D. Fox	12	67%	6.0 / 9
J. Champagnie	11	69%	5.5 / 8
C. Bryant	4	100%	2.0 / 2
H. Barnes	3	50%	1.5 / 3
L. Kornet	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. McLaughlin	2	100%	1.0 / 1
L. Waters	1	13%	0.5 / 4
K. Olynyk	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Trent	18	82%	9.0 / 11
M. Turner	15	58%	7.5 / 13
O. Dieng	12	43%	6.0 / 14
R. Rollins	12	38%	6.0 / 16
A. Jackson	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Sims	10	71%	5.0 / 7
A. Green	7	58%	3.5 / 6
P. Nance	5	83%	2.5 / 3
T. Prince	5	31%	2.5 / 8
C. Ryan	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 24 112.3	SAS 129.6 +31.7 MIL 97.9
Pace	13 100.5 24 98.1	SAS 102.9 +10.3 MIL 92.6
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 7 14.8	SAS 14.0 −1.6 MIL 15.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 3 56.5%	SAS 62.9% +11.2% MIL 51.7%
TO %	4 12.5% 24 14.7%	SAS 10.1% −7.4% MIL 17.5%
ORB %	10 26.2% 30 21.1%	SAS 24.3% +2.3% MIL 22.0%
FTrt	12 27.3 29 22.3	SAS 22.5 +15.6 MIL 6.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 17 63.3%	SAS 71.4% +13.5% MIL 57.9%
STL %	24 7.5% 23 7.5%	SAS 13.3% +4.0% MIL 9.3%
BLK %	10 10.0% 25 8.2%	SAS 4.9% MIL 9.3% +4.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 9 57.5%	SAS 63.5% +11.3% MIL 52.2%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 4 67.1%	SAS 72.7% +1.3% MIL 71.4%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 20 42.6%	SAS 52.4% +0.5% MIL 51.9%
3P %	15 35.9% 2 38.7%	SAS 40.0% +9.6% MIL 30.4%
FT %	12 78.7% 30 73.0%	SAS 75.0% MIL 83.3% +8.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 27 28.2%	SAS 37.1% +21.0% MIL 16.1%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 16 26.1%	SAS 23.6% −7.4% MIL 31.0%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 5 45.7%	SAS 39.3% MIL 52.9% +13.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Game Totals	SAS	MIL
Possessions	98	97
Possession Minutes	22.9	25.1
Points	127	95
Rebounds	41	37
Assists	35	22
Steals	13	9
Blocks	2	5
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	18 (1)
Fouls	6	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (5)	9 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (5)	28 (0)
Field Goals	49-89	38-87
At-the-Rim FG	24-33	10-14
Midrange FG	11-21	14-27
2-Point FG	35-54	24-41
3-Point FG	14-35	14-46
Free Throws	15-20	5-6
Fast Break Pts	23	15
2nd Chance Pts	11	6
Points in Paint	58	28
Pts off Turnovers	22	14
Bench Points	43	33
Biggest Lead	38	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg