Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, April 9, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Heat	47%	115	114	121.3	94	98.9
	8	Raptors	53%	116	128	136.2	94	89.5

Prediction updated: Apr 9, 2026 11:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+10

-13

TOR

+16

-4

106

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.25 62.6%

TOR

1.21 60.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	37.5	24	75%	11	8	1	1	1	4	4	7	4-5	80%	7-10	70%	2-4	50%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	37.3	15	68%	3	11	0	0	3	2	1	2	1-4	25%	7-8	88%	0-1	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 25	32.3	10	50%	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	28.3	15	63%	4	4	0	0	1	5	0	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	3-5	60%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	21.6	5	42%	1	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	24.1	15	83%	2	4	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	16.6	7	50%	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3-5	60%	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · SF · 7'0" 250 · 22	11.4	7	50%	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	10.8	6	100%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	7.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.1	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 26	3.1	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	3.1	0	0%	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	3.1	6	75%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	63%	34	35	1	3	13	25	6	28	8-14	57%	32-47	68%	14-35	40%

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9 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	37.5	24	75%	11	8	1	1	1	4	4	7	4-5	80%	7-10	70%	2-4	50%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	37.3	15	68%	3	11	0	0	3	2	1	2	1-4	25%	7-8	88%	0-1	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 25	32.3	10	50%	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	28.3	15	63%	4	4	0	0	1	5	0	4	0-0	-	3-7	43%	3-5	60%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	21.6	5	42%	1	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	24.1	15	83%	2	4	0	0	2	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	16.6	7	50%	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	3-5	60%	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Kel'el Ware #7 · SF · 7'0" 250 · 22	11.4	7	50%	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-3	33%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	10.8	6	100%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-0	-
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	7.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.1	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 26	3.1	2	100%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	3.1	0	0%	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	3.1	6	75%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-4	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	114	63%	34	35	1	3	13	25	6	28	8-14	57%	32-47	68%	14-35	40%

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8 Toronto Raptors

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Brandon Ingram #3 · SF · 6'8" 190 · 29	36.6	38	70%	7	7	1	0	1	0	2	5	10-11	91%	11-20	55%	2-3	67%
RJ Barrett #9 · SG · 6'6" 214 · 26	35.0	22	55%	6	3	2	0	0	2	1	5	9-10	90%	5-10	50%	1-5	20%
Scottie Barnes #4 · PF · 6'8" 237 · 25	25.0	13	81%	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	4	3-4	75%	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Immanuel Quickley #5 · PG · 6'2" 190 · 27	23.2	11	55%	3	4	1	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-7	43%
Jakob Poeltl #19 · C · 7'0" 253 · 30	17.4	6	75%	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-

Ja'Kobe Walter #14 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 22	24.8	7	58%	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Collin Murray-Boyles #12 · PF · 6'7" 245 · 21	22.2	17	106%	8	1	2	1	1	3	3	5	3-3	100%	7-7	100%	0-0	-
Jamal Shead #23 · PG · 6'1" 200 · 24	21.7	8	67%	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Sandro Mamukelashvili #54 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 27	18.5	5	42%	4	1	2	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
A.J. Lawson #0 · SG · 6'6" 179 · 26	3.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-2	0%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Gradey Dick #1 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 22	3.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jamison Battle #77 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	3.1	1	25%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Alijah Martin #55 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 24	3.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Jonathan Mogbo #2 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	3.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Garrett Temple #17 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 40	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyreke Key #8 · NA · 6'2" 207 · 27	INACTIVE
Chucky Hepburn #24 · PG · 6'0" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Trayce Jackson-Davis #32 · C · 6'9" 245 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Illness; Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	60%	40	24	9	2	4	15	10	30	27-34	79%	31-56	55%	13-30	43%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	TOR
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	TOR

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.25 62.6%

TOR

1.21 60.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

80%

TOR

70%

Midrange

MIA

47%

TOR

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

21.0

40%

60%

TOR

19.5

43%

65%

Free Throws

MIA

57%

TOR

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	24	75%	12.0 / 16
D. Mitchell	15	68%	7.5 / 11
T. Herro	15	63%	7.5 / 12
J. Jaquez	15	83%	7.5 / 9
P. Larsson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
N. Powell	7	50%	3.5 / 7
K. Ware	7	50%	3.5 / 7
K. Johnson	6	100%	3.0 / 3
T. Keels	6	75%	3.0 / 4
A. Wiggins	5	42%	2.5 / 6
M. Gardner	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. Young	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Jakučionis	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Raptors

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Ingram	38	70%	19.0 / 27
R. Barrett	22	55%	11.0 / 20
C. Murray-Boyles	17	106%	8.5 / 8
S. Barnes	13	81%	6.5 / 8
I. Quickley	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Shead	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Walter	7	58%	3.5 / 6
J. Poeltl	6	75%	3.0 / 4
S. Mamukelashvili	5	42%	2.5 / 6
J. Battle	1	25%	0.5 / 2
A. Lawson	0	-	0.0 / 3
A. Martin	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 15 115.1	MIA 121.3 TOR 136.2 +14.9
Pace	1 104.3 22 99.1	MIA 98.9 +9.4 TOR 89.5
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 19 14.1	MIA 14.6 −1.5 TOR 16.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 16 54.6%	MIA 64.6% +5.9% TOR 58.7%
TO %	5 12.6% 7 12.9%	MIA 14.5% TOR 5.6% −8.9%
ORB %	17 25.4% 16 25.5%	MIA 16.7% TOR 26.3% +9.6%
FTrt	14 26.8 16 26.5	MIA 17.1 TOR 39.5 +22.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 3 69.2%	MIA 76.1% +21.6% TOR 54.5%
STL %	17 8.3% 8 8.8%	MIA 1.1% TOR 9.6% +8.5%
BLK %	28 7.9% 12 9.6%	MIA 5.4% +1.1% TOR 4.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 16 56.6%	MIA 62.6% +2.2% TOR 60.4%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 6 66.5%	MIA 80.0% +10.4% TOR 69.6%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 16 43.7%	MIA 47.1% +1.6% TOR 45.5%
3P %	11 36.1% 21 35.4%	MIA 40.0% TOR 43.3% +3.3%
FT %	11 79.2% 22 76.9%	MIA 57.1% TOR 79.4% +22.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 10 32.9%	MIA 36.6% +9.8% TOR 26.7%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 27 30.7%	MIA 20.7% −17.6% TOR 38.4%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 25 36.3%	MIA 42.7% +7.8% TOR 34.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	TOR
Possessions	94	94
Possession Minutes	22.8	25.2
Points	114	128
Rebounds	34	40
Assists	35	24
Steals	1	9
Blocks	3	2
Turnovers (Team)	13 (2)	4 (2)
Fouls	25	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (4)	10 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (1)	30 (0)
Field Goals	46-82	44-86
At-the-Rim FG	24-30	16-23
Midrange FG	8-17	15-33
2-Point FG	32-47	31-56
3-Point FG	14-35	13-30
Free Throws	8-14	27-34
Fast Break Pts	12	10
2nd Chance Pts	14	22
Points in Paint	58	48
Pts off Turnovers	9	24
Bench Points	45	38
Biggest Lead	8	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg