Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, December 11, 2025

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Nuggets	75%	123	136	133.3	102	105.4
	27	Kings	25%	114	105	101.9	103	99.8

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+11

-12

101

SAC

+15

-16

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.3%

SAC

1.04 52.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	32.6	16	53%	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	3-4	75%	5-8	63%	1-5	20%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	29.1	36	95%	12	8	2	0	1	3	2	10	6-8	75%	12-14	86%	2-2	100%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	25.7	11	39%	3	9	2	0	1	1	0	3	2-3	67%	3-9	33%	1-4	25%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 23	22.8	21	81%	2	1	0	0	2	3	2	0	5-8	63%	5-7	71%	2-3	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 24	21.8	2	100%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.2	8	57%	5	7	1	0	3	2	2	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	25.0	6	50%	5	4	2	0	2	0	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	24.7	11	50%	5	2	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-6	17%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	18.9	15	94%	6	2	0	0	2	3	1	5	0-2	0%	6-6	100%	1-1	100%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	7.1	8	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	6.2	2	50%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	67%	46	35	9	0	12	18	10	36	20-29	69%	40-59	68%	12-29	41%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	32.6	16	53%	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	3-4	75%	5-8	63%	1-5	20%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	29.1	36	95%	12	8	2	0	1	3	2	10	6-8	75%	12-14	86%	2-2	100%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	25.7	11	39%	3	9	2	0	1	1	0	3	2-3	67%	3-9	33%	1-4	25%
Peyton Watson #8 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 23	22.8	21	81%	2	1	0	0	2	3	2	0	5-8	63%	5-7	71%	2-3	67%
Spencer Jones #21 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 24	21.8	2	100%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	26.2	8	57%	5	7	1	0	3	2	2	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	25.0	6	50%	5	4	2	0	2	0	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	24.7	11	50%	5	2	0	0	0	2	1	4	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-6	17%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	18.9	15	94%	6	2	0	0	2	3	1	5	0-2	0%	6-6	100%	1-1	100%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 25	7.1	8	100%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	6.2	2	50%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lower Back; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	67%	46	35	9	0	12	18	10	36	20-29	69%	40-59	68%	12-29	41%

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27 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	36.6	15	54%	9	1	1	0	1	3	3	6	0-2	0%	6-12	50%	1-1	100%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	28.4	2	13%	4	0	0	0	4	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-6	0%
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 25	27.5	15	54%	6	1	2	2	1	3	2	4	0-2	0%	6-8	75%	1-5	20%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	26.7	17	61%	3	5	0	0	2	2	0	3	6-6	100%	4-6	67%	1-5	20%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 36	21.2	11	69%	3	1	1	1	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	1-1	100%

Keon Ellis #23 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	31.4	8	40%	2	4	4	1	1	2	1	1	1-3	33%	2-2	100%	1-7	14%
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	30.1	18	64%	4	5	1	0	5	0	1	3	5-6	83%	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	21.1	15	68%	1	4	0	0	2	1	1	0	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	3-6	50%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · C · 6'8" 243 · 26	9.9	4	50%	6	0	0	0	0	4	1	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-0	-
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	3.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	3.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Dario Šarić #20 · C · 6'10" 225 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Partial Meniscus Tear
Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Thumb; Soreness
Dennis Schröder #17 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip Flexor; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	105	52%	38	21	9	4	16	20	10	28	16-23	70%	28-49	57%	11-38	29%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.35 67.3%

SAC

1.04 52.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

76%

SAC

57%

Midrange

DEN

60%

SAC

57%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

41%

62%

SAC

16.5

29%

43%

Free Throws

DEN

69%

SAC

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	36	95%	18.0 / 19
P. Watson	21	81%	10.5 / 13
C. Johnson	16	53%	8.0 / 15
J. Valančiūnas	15	94%	7.5 / 8
J. Murray	11	39%	5.5 / 14
T. Hardaway	11	50%	5.5 / 11
B. Brown	8	57%	4.0 / 7
H. Tyson	8	100%	4.0 / 4
J. Pickett	6	50%	3.0 / 6
S. Jones	2	100%	1.0 / 1
Z. Nnaji	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Monk	18	64%	9.0 / 14
R. Westbrook	17	61%	8.5 / 14
M. Raynaud	15	54%	7.5 / 14
K. Murray	15	54%	7.5 / 14
D. Carter	15	68%	7.5 / 11
D. DeRozan	11	69%	5.5 / 8
K. Ellis	8	40%	4.0 / 10
P. Achiuwa	4	50%	2.0 / 4
N. Clifford	2	13%	1.0 / 8
D. McDermott	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 26 110.6	DEN 133.3 +31.4 SAC 101.9
Pace	19 99.4 17 100.0	DEN 105.4 +5.7 SAC 99.8
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 14 14.5	DEN 13.7 −0.8 SAC 14.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 29 52.5%	DEN 65.9% +14.8% SAC 51.1%
TO %	3 12.1% 15 13.7%	DEN 10.6% −3.5% SAC 14.1%
ORB %	24 23.6% 13 25.9%	DEN 26.3% +4.6% SAC 21.7%
FTrt	4 29.4 19 25.6	DEN 33.0 +6.6 SAC 26.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 20 61.5%	DEN 67.3% +13.5% SAC 53.8%
STL %	30 6.8% 21 8.0%	DEN 8.8% +0.1% SAC 8.7%
BLK %	29 7.6% 19 8.6%	DEN 0.0% SAC 6.8% +6.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 29 54.7%	DEN 67.3% +15.3% SAC 52.0%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 8 65.9%	DEN 75.9% +18.8% SAC 57.1%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 13 43.8%	DEN 60.0% +2.9% SAC 57.1%
3P %	1 39.6% 29 34.1%	DEN 41.4% +12.5% SAC 28.9%
FT %	5 80.8% 21 77.2%	DEN 69.0% SAC 69.6% +0.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 28 28.0%	DEN 33.0% +16.9% SAC 16.1%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 30 38.1%	DEN 34.1% −6.1% SAC 40.2%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 30 33.9%	DEN 33.0% SAC 43.7% +10.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	SAC
Possessions	102	103
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	136	105
Rebounds	46	38
Assists	35	21
Steals	9	9
Blocks	0	4
Turnovers (Team)	12 (0)	16 (0)
Fouls	18	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (1)	10 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (2)	28 (2)
Field Goals	52-88	39-87
At-the-Rim FG	22-29	8-14
Midrange FG	18-30	20-35
2-Point FG	40-59	28-49
3-Point FG	12-29	11-38
Free Throws	20-29	16-23
Fast Break Pts	13	12
2nd Chance Pts	18	12
Points in Paint	66	46
Pts off Turnovers	15	16
Bench Points	50	45
Biggest Lead	37	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg