Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, November 20, 2002

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	24	Heat	18%	83	68
	11	Pistons	82%	95	79

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
Heat	80.0	85	90.7
Pistons	90.8	87	81.9

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+10

-16

DET

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.86 43.0%

DET

0.95 47.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DET
Q4 - 0:00.0	DET		68	79
Q4 - 0:22.0	MIA	James Layup (4 PTS) (Stepania 1 AST)	68	79
Q4 - 0:24.0	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:11)	66	79
Q4 - 0:26.0	DET	MISS Davis 31' 3PT Jump Shot	66	79
Q4 - 0:52.0	MIA	Stepania 17' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (James 5 AST)	66	79
Q4 - 1:05	MIA	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	64	79
Q4 - 1:07	DET	MISS Davis 19' Jump Shot	64	79
Q4 - 1:27	MIA	Butler 26' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (House 2 AST)	64	79
Q4 - 1:47	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	61	79
Q4 - 1:49	DET	MISS Prince 15' Jump Shot	61	79
Q4 - 1:58	MIA	SUB: Stepania FOR Grant	61	79
Q4 - 1:58	MIA	SUB: Johnson FOR Allen	61	79
Q4 - 2:05	DET	SUB: Okur FOR Robinson	61	79
Q4 - 2:05	DET	SUB: Davis FOR Atkins	61	79
Q4 - 2:05	DET	SUB: Prince FOR Wallace	61	79
Q4 - 2:05	DET	PISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 4 Short 1)	61	79
Q4 - 2:12	MIA	Butler 15' Running Jump Shot (4 PTS) (James 4 AST)	61	79
Q4 - 2:36	DET	Wallace Dunk (12 PTS) (Barry 9 AST)	59	79
Q4 - 2:45	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:5 Def:14)	59	77
Q4 - 2:47	MIA	MISS House 18' Jump Shot	59	77
Q4 - 3:09	MIA	SUB: House FOR Best	59	77
Q4 - 3:09	MIA	SUB: James FOR Jones	59	77
Q4 - 3:09	DET	Robinson Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T14)	59	77
Q4 - 3:31	MIA	Jones 17' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Best 4 AST)	59	77
Q4 - 3:49	DET	Atkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Robinson 3 AST)	57	77
Q4 - 4:15	MIA	Jones Layup (13 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)	57	74
Q4 - 4:38	DET	Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Williamson 2 AST)	55	74
Q4 - 4:47	DET	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	55	71
Q4 - 4:49	MIA	MISS Best 19' Jump Shot	55	71
Q4 - 5:09	DET	Robinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	55	71
Q4 - 5:09	DET	PISTONS Rebound	55	70
Q4 - 5:09	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 1 of 2	55	70
Q4 - 5:09	MIA	Butler S.FOUL (P1.T3)	55	70
Q4 - 5:17	MIA	Jones P.FOUL (P3.T2)	55	70
Q4 - 5:17	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:5 Def:13)	55	70
Q4 - 5:17	DET	MISS Williamson 9' Hook Shot	55	70
Q4 - 5:38	MIA	Jones 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	55	70
Q4 - 5:53	DET	Atkins 12' Running Jump Shot (18 PTS)	53	70
Q4 - 5:59			53	68
Q4 - 5:59	DET	PISTONS Timeout: Short (Full 3 Short 1)	53	68
Q4 - 6:13	DET	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	53	68
Q4 - 6:15	MIA	MISS Allen 17' Jump Shot	53	68
Q4 - 6:22	MIA	Heat Rebound	53	68
Q4 - 6:24	MIA	MISS Best Layup	53	68
Q4 - 6:33	MIA	SUB: Butler FOR Butler	53	68
Q4 - 6:33	DET	Barry P.FOUL (P2.T4)	53	68
Q4 - 6:50	DET	Wallace Dunk (10 PTS)	53	68
Q4 - 6:52	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:4 Def:13)	53	66
Q4 - 6:53	DET	MISS Williamson Layup	53	66
Q4 - 6:59	DET	Atkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	53	66
Q4 - 7:01	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (10 BLK)	53	66
Q4 - 7:15	DET	Robinson Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)	53	66
Q4 - 7:15	MIA	Butler S.FOUL (P3.T1)	53	65
Q4 - 7:15	DET	Robinson Driving Layup (11 PTS)	53	65
Q4 - 7:30	MIA	Butler Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	53	63
Q4 - 7:30	MIA	Butler Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	52	63
Q4 - 7:30	DET	Williamson S.FOUL (P2.T3)	51	63
Q4 - 7:38	DET	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T13)	51	63
Q4 - 7:49	DET	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	51	63
Q4 - 7:51	MIA	MISS Best 16' Jump Shot	51	63
Q4 - 8:04	MIA	SUB: Allen FOR Butler	51	63
Q4 - 8:04	MIA	SUB: Jones FOR Stepania	51	63
Q4 - 8:04	MIA	SUB: Best FOR James	51	63
Q4 - 8:04	DET	Wallace Double Dribble Turnover (P1.T12)	51	63
Q4 - 8:11	MIA	James 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	51	63
Q4 - 8:23	MIA	Heat Timeout: Regular (Reg.4 Short 1)	49	63
Q4 - 8:36	DET	Williamson Dunk (11 PTS) (Barry 8 AST)	49	63
Q4 - 8:40	MIA	Robinson STEAL (1 STL)	49	61
Q4 - 8:49	MIA	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	49	61
Q4 - 8:51	DET	MISS Robinson 28' 3PT Jump Shot	49	61
Q4 - 9:12	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:13)	49	61
Q4 - 9:16	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (9 BLK)	49	61
Q4 - 9:28	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	49	61
Q4 - 9:30	DET	MISS Atkins 27' 3PT Jump Shot	49	61
Q4 - 9:51	MIA	Barry STEAL (1 STL)	49	61
Q4 - 9:54	DET	Robinson P.FOUL (P1.T2)	49	61
Q4 - 10:05	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	49	61
Q4 - 10:08	DET	MISS Robinson 27' 3PT Jump Shot	49	61
Q4 - 10:22	MIA	Stepania Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	49	61
Q4 - 10:22	MIA	SUB: Butler FOR Jones	48	61
Q4 - 10:22	MIA	Heat Rebound	48	61
Q4 - 10:22	MIA	MISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 2	48	61
Q4 - 10:22	DET	Williamson S.FOUL (P1.T1)	48	61
Q4 - 10:22	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	48	61
Q4 - 10:24	MIA	MISS James 7' Running Jump Shot	48	61
Q4 - 10:34	MIA	James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	48	61
Q4 - 10:36	DET	MISS Barry 3PT Jump Shot	48	61
Q4 - 10:53	MIA	Grant 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (James 3 AST)	48	61
Q4 - 11:06	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	46	61
Q4 - 11:07	DET	MISS Williamson 11' Jump Shot	46	61
Q4 - 11:23	DET	PISTONS Rebound	46	61
Q4 - 11:25	MIA	MISS Jones 16' Jump Shot	46	61
Q4 - 11:47	DET	Robinson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Atkins 2 AST)	46	61
Q4 - 12:00			46	58
Q3 - 0:00.0	DET		46	58
Q3 - 0:00.0	DET	PISTONS Rebound	46	58
Q3 - 0:00.0	DET	MISS Robinson 33' 3PT Jump Shot	46	58
Q3 - 0:01.0	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:12)	46	58
Q3 - 0:03.0	MIA	MISS Stepania 15' Jump Shot	46	58
Q3 - 0:18.0	DET	Williamson 9' Hook Shot (9 PTS) (Barry 7 AST)	46	58
Q3 - 0:32.0	MIA	Butler 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	46	56
Q3 - 0:47.0	DET	Robinson 26' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Williamson 1 AST)	44	56
Q3 - 1:02	MIA	Williamson STEAL (1 STL)	44	53
Q3 - 1:09	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	44	53
Q3 - 1:11	DET	MISS Atkins 10' Running Jump Shot	44	53
Q3 - 1:35	DET	SUB: Williamson FOR Curry	44	53
Q3 - 1:35	MIA	James P.FOUL (P1.T4)	44	53
Q3 - 1:37	MIA	Wallace STEAL (1 STL)	44	53
Q3 - 1:45	MIA	James REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	44	53
Q3 - 1:47	DET	MISS Wallace 14' Jump Shot	44	53
Q3 - 2:06	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:11)	44	53
Q3 - 2:09	DET	MISS Robinson 8' Hook Shot	44	53
Q3 - 2:23	DET	SUB: Barry FOR Hamilton	44	53
Q3 - 2:23	MIA	Heat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#15)	44	53
Q3 - 2:23	MIA	Allen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	44	53
Q3 - 2:24	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (8 BLK)	44	53
Q3 - 2:47	MIA	SUB: James FOR Best	44	53
Q3 - 2:47	DET	PISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 3 Short 0)	44	53
Q3 - 2:47	DET	Hamilton Lost Ball Turnover (P5.T11)	44	53
Q3 - 2:57	DET	Curry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	44	53
Q3 - 3:00	MIA	MISS Best 14' Running Jump Shot	44	53
Q3 - 3:08	MIA	SUB: Butler FOR Butler	44	53
Q3 - 3:08	DET	Hamilton P.FOUL (P3.T3)	44	53
Q3 - 3:21	DET	Hamilton Palming Turnover (P4.T10)	44	53
Q3 - 3:36	MIA	Allen Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14)	44	53
Q3 - 3:48	DET	SUB: Robinson FOR Rebraca	44	53
Q3 - 3:48	DET	Rebraca L.B.FOUL (P4.T2)	44	53
Q3 - 3:48	MIA	Heat Rebound	44	53
Q3 - 3:49	DET	MISS Curry 27' 3PT Jump Shot	44	53
Q3 - 4:03	MIA	Stepania Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	44	53
Q3 - 4:05	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	44	53
Q3 - 4:07	DET	MISS Rebraca 6' Hook Shot	44	53
Q3 - 4:09	DET	Rebraca REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	44	53
Q3 - 4:11	DET	MISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot	44	53
Q3 - 4:16	DET	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	44	53
Q3 - 4:18	MIA	MISS Allen Dunk	44	53
Q3 - 4:34	DET	Hamilton Foul Turnover (P3.T9)	44	53
Q3 - 4:34	DET	Hamilton OFF.Foul (P2)	44	53
Q3 - 4:43	MIA	SUB: Stepania FOR Grant	44	53
Q3 - 4:43	MIA	Grant P.FOUL (P2.T3)	44	53
Q3 - 5:03	MIA	Butler Layup (4 PTS)	44	53
Q3 - 5:09	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	42	53
Q3 - 5:10	DET	MISS Atkins 16' Jump Shot	42	53
Q3 - 5:16	DET	Curry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	42	53
Q3 - 5:17	MIA	MISS Best Layup	42	53
Q3 - 5:24	MIA	Best REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	42	53
Q3 - 5:26	DET	MISS Hamilton 10' Jump Shot	42	53
Q3 - 5:54	MIA	Jones 16' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	42	53
Q3 - 6:01	DET	Curry P.FOUL (P1.T1)	40	53
Q3 - 6:17	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	40	53
Q3 - 6:17	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	40	52
Q3 - 6:17	MIA	Allen S.FOUL (P3.T2)	40	51
Q3 - 6:20	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:11)	40	51
Q3 - 6:23	MIA	MISS Best 13' Running Jump Shot	40	51
Q3 - 6:48	DET	Atkins 24' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Hamilton 5 AST)	40	51
Q3 - 7:04	DET	PISTONS Rebound	40	48
Q3 - 7:06	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (7 BLK)	40	48
Q3 - 7:28	DET	Wallace Layup (8 PTS)	40	48
Q3 - 7:48	MIA	Allen 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)	40	46
Q3 - 8:12	DET	Wallace Dunk (6 PTS) (Atkins 1 AST)	38	46
Q3 - 8:39	MIA	Best 21' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	38	44
Q3 - 8:48	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	36	44
Q3 - 8:50	DET	MISS Hamilton 12' Jump Shot	36	44
Q3 - 9:13	MIA	Allen 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Best 3 AST)	36	44
Q3 - 9:24	DET	Atkins Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)	34	44
Q3 - 9:40	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	34	44
Q3 - 9:42	MIA	MISS Allen 18' Jump Shot	34	44
Q3 - 9:58	MIA	Heat Timeout: Regular (Reg.3 Short 1)	34	44
Q3 - 10:02	DET	Atkins 26' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Hamilton 4 AST)	34	44
Q3 - 10:12	MIA	Curry STEAL (1 STL)	34	41
Q3 - 10:27	DET	Atkins Layup (10 PTS) (Hamilton 3 AST)	34	41
Q3 - 10:31	MIA	Hamilton STEAL (3 STL)	34	39
Q3 - 10:44	DET	Curry Traveling Turnover (P1.T7)	34	39
Q3 - 10:52	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	34	39
Q3 - 10:53	MIA	MISS Jones 15' Jump Shot	34	39
Q3 - 11:12	DET	Rebraca Layup (2 PTS) (Hamilton 2 AST)	34	39
Q3 - 11:19	MIA	Butler L.B.FOUL (P2.T1)	34	37
Q3 - 11:22	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	34	37
Q3 - 11:23	DET	MISS Rebraca 13' Jump Shot	34	37
Q3 - 11:46	MIA	Jones Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T10)	34	37
Q3 - 12:00			34	37
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA		34	37
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	34	37
Q2 - 0:01.0	MIA	MISS Best 28' 3PT Jump Shot	34	37
Q2 - 0:03.0	DET	SUB: Davis FOR Atkins	34	37
Q2 - 0:03.0	DET	Barry P.FOUL (P1.T3)	34	37
Q2 - 0:14.0	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	34	37
Q2 - 0:15.0	DET	MISS Atkins Layup	34	37
Q2 - 0:20.0	MIA	Grant Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T9)	34	37
Q2 - 0:20.0	DET	Jump Ball Wallace vs. Grant: Tip to Atkins	34	37
Q2 - 0:41.0	DET	Atkins 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Barry 6 AST)	34	37
Q2 - 0:46.0	DET	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	34	35
Q2 - 0:48.0	MIA	MISS Allen 17' Jump Shot	34	35
Q2 - 0:57.0	MIA	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	34	35
Q2 - 1:00	DET	MISS Atkins 27' 3PT Jump Shot	34	35
Q2 - 1:28	MIA	Jones 12' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)	34	35
Q2 - 1:49	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	32	35
Q2 - 1:50	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 2 of 2	32	35
Q2 - 1:50	MIA	SUB: Allen FOR Stepania	32	35
Q2 - 1:50	DET	PISTONS Rebound	32	35
Q2 - 1:50	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 1 of 2	32	35
Q2 - 1:50	MIA	Stepania S.FOUL (P2.T4)	32	35
Q2 - 2:02	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	32	35
Q2 - 2:04	MIA	MISS Jones 17' Jump Shot	32	35
Q2 - 2:21	MIA	Best REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	32	35
Q2 - 2:23	DET	MISS Hamilton 14' Jump Shot	32	35
Q2 - 2:25	DET	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	32	35
Q2 - 2:25	DET	MISS Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 1	32	35
Q2 - 2:25	MIA	Heat Timeout: Regular (Reg.2 Short 1)	32	35
Q2 - 2:25	MIA	Best S.FOUL (P2.T3)	32	35
Q2 - 2:25	DET	Hamilton Driving Layup (7 PTS)	32	35
Q2 - 2:30	MIA	Hamilton STEAL (2 STL)	32	33
Q2 - 2:47	MIA	Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	32	33
Q2 - 2:48	MIA	MISS Grant 16' Jump Shot	32	33
Q2 - 3:04	DET	Atkins 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)	32	33
Q2 - 3:26	MIA	Stepania Layup (9 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)	32	30
Q2 - 3:40	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	30	30
Q2 - 3:42	DET	MISS Hamilton 3PT Jump Shot	30	30
Q2 - 3:50	MIA	SUB: Butler FOR Ellis	30	30
Q2 - 3:50	MIA	Stepania P.FOUL (P1.T2)	30	30
Q2 - 4:04	DET	SUB: Hamilton FOR Williamson	30	30
Q2 - 4:04	MIA	SUB: Grant FOR Allen	30	30
Q2 - 4:04	MIA	Stepania Traveling Turnover (P2.T7)	30	30
Q2 - 4:19	DET	Wallace 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Barry 5 AST)	30	30
Q2 - 4:45	MIA	Stepania Layup (7 PTS) (Best 2 AST)	30	28
Q2 - 5:02	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	28	28
Q2 - 5:04	DET	MISS Williamson 10' Jump Shot	28	28
Q2 - 5:18	MIA	SUB: Best FOR James	28	28
Q2 - 5:18	MIA	Stepania Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	28	28
Q2 - 5:18	DET	SUB: Atkins FOR Davis	27	28
Q2 - 5:18	DET	PISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 2 Short 0)	27	28
Q2 - 5:18	DET	Wallace S.FOUL (P2.T2)	27	28
Q2 - 5:18	MIA	Stepania Reverse Dunk (4 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	27	28
Q2 - 5:41	DET	Barry Reverse Layup (5 PTS)	25	28
Q2 - 5:49	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	25	26
Q2 - 5:51	MIA	MISS Allen 18' Jump Shot	25	26
Q2 - 6:06	DET	Robinson Palming Turnover (P3.T6)	25	26
Q2 - 6:17	MIA	Stepania Layup (2 PTS)	25	26
Q2 - 6:39	DET	Barry 27' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)	23	26
Q2 - 6:43	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	23	23
Q2 - 6:45	MIA	MISS Stepania 17' Jump Shot	23	23
Q2 - 7:00	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	23	23
Q2 - 7:02	DET	MISS Robinson 16' Jump Shot	23	23
Q2 - 7:24	MIA	Ellis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (4 PTS) (James 2 AST)	23	23
Q2 - 7:41	MIA	Ellis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20	23
Q2 - 7:41	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 2 of 2	20	23
Q2 - 7:41	MIA	SUB: Allen FOR Butler	20	23
Q2 - 7:41	DET	Robinson Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	20	23
Q2 - 7:41	MIA	Butler S.FOUL (P1.T1)	20	22
Q2 - 7:56	DET	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	20	22
Q2 - 7:58	MIA	MISS Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot	20	22
Q2 - 8:17	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	20	22
Q2 - 8:19	DET	MISS Williamson 8' Jump Shot	20	22
Q2 - 8:37	MIA	Ellis Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	20	22
Q2 - 8:37	MIA	Heat Rebound	19	22
Q2 - 8:37	MIA	MISS Ellis Free Throw 1 of 2	19	22
Q2 - 8:37	DET	SUB: Wallace FOR Rebraca	19	22
Q2 - 8:37			19	22
Q2 - 8:37	DET	Rebraca S.FOUL (P3.T1)	19	22
Q2 - 8:57	DET	Robinson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T5)	19	22
Q2 - 9:12	MIA	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 1 AST)	19	22
Q2 - 9:36	DET	Williamson 5' Hook Shot (7 PTS) (Barry 4 AST)	16	22
Q2 - 9:44	DET	Robinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	16	20
Q2 - 9:45	MIA	MISS James 27' 3PT Jump Shot	16	20
Q2 - 9:56	MIA	Heat Timeout: Short (Reg.1 Short 1)	16	20
Q2 - 10:06	DET	Davis 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Barry 3 AST)	16	20
Q2 - 10:19	MIA	Heat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#6)	16	18
Q2 - 10:46	DET	Williamson 13' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Barry 2 AST)	16	18
Q2 - 11:01	DET	SUB: Davis FOR Atkins	16	16
Q2 - 11:01	MIA	Stepania Traveling Turnover (P1.T5)	16	16
Q2 - 11:11	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	16	16
Q2 - 11:13	DET	MISS Rebraca 12' Jump Shot	16	16
Q2 - 11:20	MIA	SUB: James FOR Best	16	16
Q2 - 11:20	MIA	Best Violation:Kicked Ball	16	16
Q2 - 11:35	MIA	Heat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)	16	16
Q2 - 12:00			16	16
Q1 - 0:00.0	DET		16	16
Q1 - 0:00.0	DET	Barry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16	16
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Ellis 17' Jump Shot	16	16
Q1 - 0:12.0	DET	Williamson Layup (3 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)	16	16
Q1 - 0:17.0	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	16	14
Q1 - 0:19.0	MIA	MISS House 18' Jump Shot	16	14
Q1 - 0:37.0	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	16	14
Q1 - 0:37.0	DET	MISS Williamson Free Throw 2 of 2	16	14
Q1 - 0:37.0	MIA	SUB: Ellis FOR Grant	16	14
Q1 - 0:37.0	DET	Williamson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	16	14
Q1 - 0:37.0	MIA	Grant P.FOUL (P1.PN)	16	13
Q1 - 0:40.0	DET	Williamson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	16	13
Q1 - 0:42.0	DET	MISS Atkins 25' 3PT Jump Shot	16	13
Q1 - 0:55.0	MIA	Best Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	16	13
Q1 - 0:55.0	MIA	Best Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	15	13
Q1 - 0:55.0	DET	SUB: Barry FOR Hamilton	14	13
Q1 - 0:55.0	DET	Wallace S.FOUL (P1.T4)	14	13
Q1 - 1:09	MIA	Best REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	14	13
Q1 - 1:10	DET	MISS Robinson 18' Jump Shot	14	13
Q1 - 1:31	MIA	Grant 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (House 1 AST)	14	13
Q1 - 1:34	MIA	Heat Rebound	12	13
Q1 - 1:35	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (6 BLK)	12	13
Q1 - 1:48	MIA	Stepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	12	13
Q1 - 1:51	MIA	MISS Best 9' Hook Shot	12	13
Q1 - 1:58	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	12	13
Q1 - 2:01	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (5 BLK)	12	13
Q1 - 2:18	DET	SUB: Williamson FOR Curry	12	13
Q1 - 2:18	DET	Hamilton Foul Turnover (P2.T4)	12	13
Q1 - 2:18	DET	Hamilton OFF.Foul (P1)	12	13
Q1 - 2:37	MIA	Grant Layup (4 PTS)	12	13
Q1 - 2:40	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10	13
Q1 - 2:42	MIA	MISS Grant 18' Jump Shot	10	13
Q1 - 2:58	DET	Curry Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	10	13
Q1 - 2:58	MIA	SUB: Stepania FOR Allen	10	12
Q1 - 2:58	DET	PISTONS Rebound	10	12
Q1 - 2:58	DET	MISS Curry Free Throw 1 of 2	10	12
Q1 - 2:58	MIA	Allen P.FOUL (P2.PN)	10	12
Q1 - 3:01	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	10	12
Q1 - 3:04	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (4 BLK)	10	12
Q1 - 3:19	MIA	Heat Timeout: Regular (Reg.1 Short 0)	10	12
Q1 - 3:24	MIA	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10	12
Q1 - 3:26	DET	MISS Atkins 19' Jump Shot	10	12
Q1 - 3:36	DET	Robinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	10	12
Q1 - 3:38	MIA	MISS Best 26' 3PT Jump Shot	10	12
Q1 - 3:44	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10	12
Q1 - 3:46	DET	MISS Hamilton 17' Jump Shot	10	12
Q1 - 3:51	MIA	Hamilton STEAL (1 STL)	10	12
Q1 - 4:08	DET	Atkins 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Curry 1 AST)	10	12
Q1 - 4:32	MIA	Grant Illegal Pick Turnover (P1.T2)	10	9
Q1 - 4:52	DET	Robinson Dunk (2 PTS) (Hamilton 1 AST)	10	9
Q1 - 5:02	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	10	7
Q1 - 5:04	MIA	MISS House 19' Jump Shot	10	7
Q1 - 5:19	MIA	Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	10	7
Q1 - 5:20	MIA	MISS Allen 17' Jump Shot	10	7
Q1 - 5:43	DET	Wallace Dunk (2 PTS)	10	7
Q1 - 5:44	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10	5
Q1 - 5:46	DET	MISS Hamilton Layup	10	5
Q1 - 5:59	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10	5
Q1 - 6:02	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (3 BLK)	10	5
Q1 - 6:18	MIA	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10	5
Q1 - 6:18	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 2 of 2	10	5
Q1 - 6:18	DET	PISTONS Rebound	10	5
Q1 - 6:18	DET	MISS Robinson Free Throw 1 of 2	10	5
Q1 - 6:18	MIA	Allen S.FOUL (P1.PN)	10	5
Q1 - 6:22	DET	PISTONS Timeout: Regular (Full 1 Short 0)	10	5
Q1 - 6:34	MIA	Butler Dunk (2 PTS) (Best 1 AST)	10	5
Q1 - 6:38	MIA	Best REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	8	5
Q1 - 6:41	DET	MISS Curry 18' Jump Shot	8	5
Q1 - 7:00	MIA	Best Driving Layup (4 PTS)	8	5
Q1 - 7:22	DET	Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS)	6	5
Q1 - 7:22	MIA	House S.FOUL (P1.T4)	6	4
Q1 - 7:22	DET	Hamilton 7' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Robinson 1 AST)	6	4
Q1 - 7:30	DET	Hamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6	2
Q1 - 7:32	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (2 BLK)	6	2
Q1 - 7:43	DET	Robinson Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	6	2
Q1 - 7:50	MIA	Best Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	6	2
Q1 - 7:50	MIA	Best Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	5	2
Q1 - 7:50	DET	Atkins S.FOUL (P1.T3)	4	2
Q1 - 7:53	DET	Hamilton Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	4	2
Q1 - 8:05	DET	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4	2
Q1 - 8:07	MIA	MISS Allen 18' Jump Shot	4	2
Q1 - 8:17	MIA	SUB: House FOR Jones	4	2
Q1 - 8:17	DET	SUB: Robinson FOR Rebraca	4	2
Q1 - 8:17	DET	Rebraca P.FOUL (P2.T2)	4	2
Q1 - 8:24	MIA	Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4	2
Q1 - 8:26	DET	MISS Rebraca Layup	4	2
Q1 - 8:40	DET	PISTONS Rebound	4	2
Q1 - 8:41	MIA	MISS Butler 14' Jump Shot	4	2
Q1 - 8:56	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4	2
Q1 - 8:58	DET	MISS Curry 3PT Jump Shot	4	2
Q1 - 9:07	DET	Rebraca REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4	2
Q1 - 9:11	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (1 BLK)	4	2
Q1 - 9:22	DET	Rebraca P.FOUL (P1.T1)	4	2
Q1 - 9:26	MIA	Allen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4	2
Q1 - 9:29	DET	MISS Hamilton 8' Running Jump Shot	4	2
Q1 - 9:41	MIA	Jones P.FOUL (P2.T3)	4	2
Q1 - 9:44	MIA	Best Violation:Kicked Ball	4	2
Q1 - 9:46	MIA	Best P.FOUL (P1.T2)	4	2
Q1 - 10:05	MIA	Jones 14' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4	2
Q1 - 10:19	DET	Rebraca Traveling Turnover (P1.T1)	2	2
Q1 - 10:34	MIA	Butler Palming Turnover (P1.T1)	2	2
Q1 - 10:55	DET	Hamilton 11' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2	2
Q1 - 11:20	MIA	Grant Dunk (2 PTS) (Allen 1 AST)	2	0
Q1 - 11:37	MIA	Best REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0	0
Q1 - 11:40	DET	MISS Wallace Dunk	0	0
Q1 - 11:52	MIA	Jones P.FOUL (P1.T1)	0	0
Q1 - 12:00	DET	Jump Ball Wallace vs. Grant: Tip to Atkins	0	0
Q1 - 12:00			0	0
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	DET
			Score / WinProb

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.86 43.0%

DET

0.95 47.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

61%

DET

74%

Midrange

MIA

33%

DET

26%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

4.5

38%

56%

DET

13.5

45%

68%

Free Throws

MIA

82%

DET

47%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
E. Jones	15	68%	7.5 / 11
V. Stepania	12	55%	6.0 / 11
B. Grant	8	50%	4.0 / 8
T. Best	8	29%	4.0 / 14
R. Butler	7	88%	3.5 / 4
C. Butler	6	50%	3.0 / 6
M. Allen	4	18%	2.0 / 11
M. James	4	50%	2.0 / 4
L. Ellis	4	67%	2.0 / 3
E. House	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pistons

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Atkins	21	70%	10.5 / 15
C. Robinson	13	43%	6.5 / 15
B. Wallace	12	75%	6.0 / 8
C. Williamson	11	50%	5.5 / 11
R. Hamilton	9	32%	4.5 / 14
J. Barry	8	100%	4.0 / 4
Z. Rebraca	2	20%	1.0 / 5
H. Davis	2	33%	1.0 / 3
M. Curry	1	13%	0.5 / 4
T. Prince	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+10

-16

DET

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.86 43.0%

DET

0.95 47.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	94.5 100.9	MIA 80.0 DET 90.8 +10.8
Pace	90.0 89.6	MIA 90.7 +8.8 DET 81.9
Avg. Poss. Time	16.2 16.5	MIA 15.9 −1.7 DET 17.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	43.9% 47.3%	MIA 42.8% DET 50.7% +7.9%
TO %	14.8% 14.0%	MIA 20.5% DET 15.3% −5.2%
ORB %	26.8% 26.0%	MIA 20.0% +1.0% DET 19.0%
FTrt	25.9 32.2	MIA 15.9 DET 24.3 +8.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.8% 60.0%	MIA 67.9% DET 74.2% +6.3%
STL %	7.9% 7.5%	MIA 5.9% DET 9.2% +3.3%
BLK %	6.4% 8.6%	MIA 2.0% DET 16.4% +14.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	46.0% 49.6%	MIA 43.0% DET 47.6% +4.6%
Rim FG%	53.7% 55.0%	MIA 61.1% DET 73.7% +12.6%
Mid FG%	37.6% 38.8%	MIA 32.6% +6.8% DET 25.8%
3P %	31.6% 35.8%	MIA 37.5% DET 45.0% +7.5%
FT %	76.5% 77.1%	MIA 81.8% +34.7% DET 47.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	28.9% 30.4%	MIA 26.1% DET 27.1% +1.1%
Mid Att. %	54.2% 45.9%	MIA 62.3% DET 44.3% −18.0%
3P Att. %	16.9% 23.7%	MIA 11.6% DET 28.6% +17.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Game Totals	MIA	DET
Possessions	85	87
Possession Minutes	22.5	25.5
Points	68	79
Rebounds	41	36
Assists	19	23
Steals	5	8
Blocks	1	10
Turnovers (Team)	16 (3)	14 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (3)	8 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (1)	28 (3)
Field Goals	28-69	31-70
At-the-Rim FG	11-18	14-19
Midrange FG	14-43	8-31
2-Point FG	25-61	22-50
3-Point FG	3-8	9-20
Free Throws	9-11	8-17
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

24 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 31	34.3	15	68%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	6-10	60%	1-1	100%
Caron Butler F · 6'7" 228 · 23	32.8	6	50%	4	1	3	0	3	3	2	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Brian Grant C · 6'9" 254 · 31	32.8	8	50%	9	2	0	0	3	2	2	7	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 24	32.6	4	18%	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-11	18%	0-0	-
Travis Best G · 5'11" 182 · 30	32.1	8	29%	5	4	2	0	0	2	0	5	4-4	100%	2-9	22%	0-3	0%
Vladimir Stepania C · 7'1" 255 · 27	23.8	12	55%	13	1	0	0	4	2	2	11	2-3	67%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Mike James G · 6'2" 188 · 27	15.9	4	50%	2	5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 23	13.6	7	88%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Eddie House G · 6'1" 190 · 25	11.4	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
LaPhonso Ellis F · 6'8" 240 · 33	8.8	4	67%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Ken Johnson C-F · 6'10" 240 · 25	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	68	43%	41	19	5	1	16	0	7	34	9-11	82%	25-61	41%	3-8	38%

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24 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Eddie Jones G · 6'6" 200 · 31	34.3	15	68%	1	2	0	0	2	3	0	1	0-0	-	6-10	60%	1-1	100%
Caron Butler F · 6'7" 228 · 23	32.8	6	50%	4	1	3	0	3	3	2	2	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Brian Grant C · 6'9" 254 · 31	32.8	8	50%	9	2	0	0	3	2	2	7	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Malik Allen F · 6'10" 255 · 24	32.6	4	18%	4	1	0	1	2	3	1	3	0-0	-	2-11	18%	0-0	-
Travis Best G · 5'11" 182 · 30	32.1	8	29%	5	4	2	0	0	2	0	5	4-4	100%	2-9	22%	0-3	0%
Vladimir Stepania C · 7'1" 255 · 27	23.8	12	55%	13	1	0	0	4	2	2	11	2-3	67%	5-9	56%	0-0	-
Mike James G · 6'2" 188 · 27	15.9	4	50%	2	5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-1	0%
Rasual Butler F · 6'7" 215 · 23	13.6	7	88%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Eddie House G · 6'1" 190 · 25	11.4	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
LaPhonso Ellis F · 6'8" 240 · 33	8.8	4	67%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Ken Johnson C-F · 6'10" 240 · 25	2.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Anthony Carter G · 6'1" 190 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	68	43%	41	19	5	1	16	0	7	34	9-11	82%	25-61	41%	3-8	38%

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11 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ben Wallace F · 6'9" 240 · 28	42.5	12	75%	19	1	1	10	2	2	5	14	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Chucky Atkins G · 5'11" 185 · 28	40.1	21	70%	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-7	43%	5-8	63%
Richard Hamilton G · 6'7" 193 · 25	24.8	9	32%	3	5	3	0	5	3	1	2	3-4	75%	3-10	30%	0-1	0%
Michael Curry F · 6'5" 210 · 34	20.1	1	13%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Zeljko Rebraca C · 7'0" 265 · 31	15.3	2	20%	2	0	0	0	1	4	1	1	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-0	-
Clifford Robinson F-C · 6'10" 245 · 36	34.0	13	43%	2	3	1	0	4	1	0	2	3-9	33%	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Jon Barry G · 6'5" 210 · 33	27.3	8	100%	5	9	1	0	0	2	0	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Corliss Williamson F · 6'7" 245 · 29	23.8	11	50%	1	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	1-2	50%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Hubert Davis G · 6'5" 183 · 33	7.8	2	33%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Mehmet Okur C · 6'11" 260 · 23	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tayshaun Prince F · 6'9" 212 · 23	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chauncey Billups G · 6'3" 210 · 26
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	79	48%	36	23	8	10	14	0	8	28	8-17	47%	22-50	44%	9-20	45%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE