Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, January 23, 10:10 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	100	18.9	27.3	19.9	15.6	81.7
BOS	East	100	24.3	30.4	19.6	13.4	87.8
NYK	East	99.8	10.2	18.8	18.0	17.7	64.6
MIL	East	96.5	5.8	11.5	14.3	14.2	45.8
IND	East	95.6	4.8	9.9	13.1	13.2	41.0
ORL	East	90.3	4.4	8.7	12.1	11.6	36.8
MIA	East	72.3	1.9	3.9	6.8	6.7	19.3
DET	East	62.5	0.8	1.7	3.4	3.8	9.7
ATL	East	58.1	0.9	2.0	3.6	4.0	10.6
CHI	East	14.2	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	1.3
PHI	East	9.7	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6	1.4
CHA	East	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
TOR	East	0.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	0.2	<0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	26.8	31.2	19.2	12.5	89.7
HOU	West	99.6	8.8	16.8	16.7	17.4	59.8
MEM	West	99.6	10.3	19.1	17.9	17.4	64.8
DEN	West	98.4	6.5	13.7	14.8	15.8	50.8
LAC	West	83.9	3.3	7.2	10.3	10.2	31.0
DAL	West	80.3	4.5	8.3	12.0	10.7	35.5
MIN	West	76.6	3.6	7.0	10.3	9.6	30.6
SAC	West	64.1	2.1	4.5	7.0	6.9	20.5
GSW	West	37.8	0.8	1.7	3.1	3.0	8.6
LAL	West	31.2	0.3	0.9	1.5	1.8	4.5
PHX	West	23.0	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.4	3.7
SAS	West	5.5	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
POR	West
NOP	West
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, January 23, 10:10 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	60.9			77.2	22.4
BOS	East	57.5			22.6	73.2
NYK	East	50.0			0.3	4.1
MIL	East	45.9			<0.1	0.2
IND	East	45.6			<0.1	0.2
ORL	East	43.7				<0.1
MIA	East	41.3				<0.1
DET	East	40.4
ATL	East	40.0				<0.1
CHI	East	34.9
PHI	East	33.1
CHA	East	28.2
TOR	East	28.0
BKN	East	27.7
WAS	East	18.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.2			99.9	0.1
HOU	West	52.0			0.1	46.8
MEM	West	51.7			0.1	34.3
DEN	West	49.8			<0.1	15.7
LAC	West	45.7				1.5
DAL	West	45.2				0.7
MIN	West	44.5				0.4
SAC	West	43.6				0.3
GSW	West	41.5				<0.1
LAL	West	41.0				<0.1
PHX	West	40.0				<0.1
SAS	West	37.0
POR	West	27.7
NOP	West	26.3
UTA	West	23.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.