Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, April 12, 9:59 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	12.7	21.7	17.8	17.5	69.7
BOS	East	100	7.4	15.4	15.0	17.6	55.5
NYK	East	100	1.5	4.2	5.8	9.2	20.7
CLE	East	100	0.6	2.1	3.0	5.2	10.8
ATL	East	100	24.5	27.4	22.8	12.3	87.0
TOR	East	98.6	19.3	23.7	23.1	13.3	79.6
ORL	East	76.8	4.7	8.3	12.5	10.2	35.7
PHI	East	71.3	2.1	4.2	7.1	6.8	20.3
CHA	East	35.6	1.9	3.5	5.9	4.7	16.0
MIA	East	17.7	0.4	0.9	1.8	1.7	4.8
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	1.0	3.0	4.2	7.1	15.2
SAS	West	100	19.9	29.1	19.9	15.6	84.5
DEN	West	100	6.9	14.1	14.6	16.6	52.3
LAL	West	100	8.0	15.9	15.9	16.7	56.6
HOU	West	100	8.5	14.5	19.3	15.3	57.6
MIN	West	100	3.4	7.0	11.6	11.5	33.5
PHX	West	78.6	5.6	7.6	9.1	6.4	28.8
POR	West	69.2	6.4	8.4	9.0	6.0	29.9
LAC	West	33.6	7.2	7.9	7.2	3.7	26.1
GSW	West	18.6	4.0	4.7	4.4	2.4	15.6
NOP	West
DAL	West
MEM	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, April 12, 9:59 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	59.9			100
BOS	East	55.5				100
NYK	East	53.3
CLE	East	51.8
ATL	East	46.5
TOR	East	45.9
ORL	East	45.5
PHI	East	44.8
CHA	East	43.7
MIA	East	42.5
MIL	East	32.2
CHI	East	31.3
BKN	East	20.1
IND	East	19.1
WAS	East	17.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.5			100
SAS	West	62.9				100
DEN	West	53.1
LAL	West	52.7
HOU	West	51.9
MIN	West	48.7
PHX	West	44.5
POR	West	41.8
LAC	West	41.7
GSW	West	37.3
NOP	West	26.3
DAL	West	25.7
MEM	West	25.1
UTA	West	22.3
SAC	West	22.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.