Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, November 25, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.7	16.2	25.0	19.1	16.6	76.9
DET	East	97.1	5.9	11.8	13.6	14.7	45.9
MIA	East	94.0	5.9	11.9	14.1	14.4	46.3
NYK	East	92.9	6.7	13.3	15.0	14.3	49.3
ORL	East	90.1	5.9	11.5	14.0	13.4	44.9
ATL	East	86.6	4.4	8.8	11.7	12.0	36.9
BOS	East	86.8	9.0	14.8	17.1	13.7	54.7
TOR	East	82.9	2.8	6.2	9.3	9.8	28.1
PHI	East	52.2	1.4	2.9	5.3	5.2	14.8
CHI	East	9.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.2
MIL	East	8.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.0
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	38.7	33.9	15.6	7.7	96.0
HOU	West	99.9	19.7	27.8	19.7	15.6	82.9
DEN	West	99.2	9.2	17.8	17.1	16.9	61.0
LAL	West	97.0	4.4	9.8	12.1	13.4	39.7
GSW	West	95.9	7.7	13.9	16.0	14.4	52.0
SAS	West	84.5	2.5	5.5	8.5	8.6	25.0
MIN	West	82.4	2.9	5.9	9.1	8.7	26.6
PHX	West	38.9	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.4	3.4
MEM	West	42.9	0.7	1.4	2.4	2.5	7.0
LAC	West	32.7	0.3	0.7	1.6	1.5	4.1
POR	West	23.3	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	2.1
DAL	West	3.0	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
SAC	West	0.1		<0.1	<0.1		<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, November 25, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	54.7			56.3	20.8
DET	East	51.1			15.6	22.4
MIA	East	49.5			8.2	15.1
NYK	East	49.1			7.5	12.6
ORL	East	48.1			4.4	9.6
ATL	East	47.4			3.0	7.1
BOS	East	46.9			2.3	5.8
TOR	East	46.8			2.5	5.9
PHI	East	42.8			0.2	0.8
CHI	East	36.2			<0.1	<0.1
MIL	East	35.8				<0.1
CHA	East	27.2
IND	East	26.1
BKN	East	23.7
WAS	East	15.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	68.0			97.5	2.4
HOU	West	58.5			2.4	82.3
DEN	West	51.5			0.1	9.5
LAL	West	49.2			<0.1	3.1
GSW	West	48.1			<0.1	1.9
SAS	West	45.4				0.4
MIN	West	44.9				0.3
PHX	West	39.8				<0.1
MEM	West	39.6				<0.1
LAC	West	38.6				<0.1
POR	West	37.6				<0.1
DAL	West	32.2
SAC	West	27.4
NOP	West	24.1
UTA	West	23.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.