NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Sunday, June 14, 3:19 PM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Sunday, June 14, 3:19 PM
| Win Totals | Seed | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
| DET | East | 60.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
| BOS | East | 56.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 53.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 52.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 44.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 43.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 32.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 31.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 20.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Win Totals | Seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
| OKC | West | 64.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
| SAS | West | 62.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 54.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 53.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 52.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 42.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 42.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 37.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (shown top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date
GSW
IND
Johnny Furphy · Jan 1, 2027
LAC
Jordan Miller · Mar 1, 2027
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 1, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Mar 1, 2027
PHX
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
POR
Shaedon Sharpe · Feb 24, 2027
WAS
Jamir Watkins · Mar 15, 2027