Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, October 13, 10:19 AM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
CLE
East99.922.929.819.813.986.4
NYK
East99.411.820.418.417.267.9
ORL
East99.111.920.618.417.268.0
ATL
East85.14.89.611.411.737.5
BOS
East78.86.611.813.711.543.6
DET
East73.43.06.28.88.926.8
PHI
East62.41.94.16.46.619.0
MIL
East61.61.84.05.96.217.8
TOR
East43.91.02.23.63.710.4
IND
East42.71.02.33.93.911.1
MIA
East33.70.81.72.93.08.3
CHI
East16.30.20.60.91.02.8
CHA
East3.0<0.1<0.10.10.10.3
BKN
East0.5<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
WAS
East0.1<0.1<0.1
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West10026.231.119.012.989.1
HOU
West99.313.622.519.416.972.4
LAC
West97.67.814.715.716.254.4
GSW
West96.17.514.315.615.352.6
DEN
West95.35.912.213.814.446.3
MIN
West81.63.06.39.29.728.2
LAL
West71.82.04.47.17.220.7
MEM
West68.01.94.06.56.719.1
DAL
West48.11.12.34.04.111.5
SAS
West28.90.40.81.61.94.7
SAC
West7.5<0.10.10.20.30.7
POR
West3.2<0.1<0.10.10.10.3
NOP
West1.7<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
PHX
West0.9<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
UTA
West<0.1
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, October 13, 10:19 AM
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
CLE
East55.273.718.6
NYK
East49.313.035.7
ORL
East49.011.633.5
ATL
East42.70.94.7
BOS
East41.10.32.4
DET
East40.70.31.9
PHI
East39.40.11.1
MIL
East39.30.11.1
TOR
East37.3<0.10.4
IND
East37.1<0.10.3
MIA
East36.0<0.10.2
CHI
East33.5<0.1<0.1
CHA
East29.5
BKN
East26.2
WAS
East23.7
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West60.888.48.8
HOU
West52.25.335.1
LAC
West50.62.922.3
GSW
West49.41.715.4
DEN
West49.01.412.7
MIN
West45.10.12.7
LAL
West43.60.11.4
MEM
West43.2<0.11.2
DAL
West40.6<0.10.2
SAS
West38.4<0.10.1
SAC
West34.3
POR
West31.8
NOP
West30.7
PHX
West29.8
UTA
West20.5
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.

Injured players and estimated return date.

ATL
Jalen Johnson - Oct 16, 2025
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 22, 2025
CHI
Tre Jones - Oct 14, 2025
CLE
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Oct 14, 2025
Sam Merrill - Oct 14, 2025
DAL
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 15, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
DET
Jaden Ivey - Oct 14, 2025
GSW
Moses Moody - Oct 21, 2025
Stephen Curry - Oct 14, 2025
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 30, 2025
HOU
Jae'Sean Tate - Oct 21, 2025
Dorian Finney-Smith - Oct 21, 2025
Fred VanVleet - Apr 12, 2026
IND
Kam Jones - Oct 29, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
T.J. McConnell - Nov 11, 2025
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 17, 2025
LAL
LeBron James - Oct 31, 2025
MEM
Brandon Clarke - Nov 7, 2025
Zach Edey - Nov 7, 2025
Ja Morant - Oct 15, 2025
MIA
Terry Rozier - Oct 17, 2025
Tyler Herro - Nov 17, 2025
MIN
Joe Ingles - Oct 22, 2025
NOP
Dejounte Murray - Jan 2, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Oct 14, 2025
Herbert Jones - Oct 14, 2025
OKC
Kenrich Williams - Nov 11, 2025
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Nikola Topic - Nov 11, 2025
Jalen Williams - Oct 21, 2025
ORL
Jalen Suggs - Oct 22, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Oct 22, 2025
PHI
Paul George - Oct 17, 2025
Kyle Lowry - Oct 17, 2025
Jared McCain - Nov 8, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 17, 2025
POR
Scoot Henderson - Nov 10, 2025
Damian Lillard - Apr 1, 2026
Robert Williams III - Oct 22, 2025
SAC
Keegan Murray - Nov 30, 2025
SAS
De'Aaron Fox - Nov 2, 2025
Jeremy Sochan - Oct 17, 2025
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 17, 2025
TOR
Brandon Ingram - Oct 15, 2025
Jakob Poeltl - Oct 15, 2025
Ulrich Chomche - Oct 15, 2025
UTA
Georges Niang - Oct 27, 2025
Walker Kessler - Oct 16, 2025
Isaiah Collier - Oct 16, 2025
WAS
Khris Middleton - Oct 16, 2025
CJ McCollum - Oct 16, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Nov 1, 2025