NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
A premium subscription is required to unlock all columns of data.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, April 9, 10:00 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 12.8 | 22.9 | 18.4 | 17.9 | 71.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 21.7 | 30.2 | 19.6 | 14.8 | 86.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 12.6 | 22.7 | 18.5 | 18.4 | 72.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 12.2 | 22.2 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 71.3 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 97.3 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 26.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 92.4 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 23.4 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 65.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 76.4 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 16.0 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 47.6 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 21.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 35.8 | 34.5 | 16.4 | 8.9 | 95.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 19.7 | 29.0 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 84.3 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 14.0 | 22.4 | 17.9 | 17.2 | 71.5 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 100 | 26.3 | 27.9 | 18.1 | 11.1 | 83.3 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 100 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 12.7 | 10.5 | 38.2 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 81.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 52.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 48.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 17.2 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, April 9, 10:00 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 59.2 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 56.1 | 99.4 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.8 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 52.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.7 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 44.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 42.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 31.2 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.7 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 65.4 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 62.5 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 52.8 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.1 | |||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 51.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.2 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 44.9 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.1 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 41.4 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 38.8 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 25.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 25.6 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 21.9 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jock Landale - Apr 17, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
BKN
Nic Claxton - Apr 10, 2026
Danny Wolf - Oct 1, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Terance Mann - Apr 10, 2026
Nolan Traore - Apr 10, 2026
Josh Minott - Apr 10, 2026
Ziaire Williams - Apr 10, 2026
Noah Clowney - Apr 10, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
CHA
Coby White - Apr 10, 2026
PJ Hall - Apr 10, 2026
CHI
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Smith - Oct 1, 2026
Nick Richards - Apr 10, 2026
Josh Giddey - Apr 10, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Apr 10, 2026
Matas Buzelis - Apr 10, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
Thomas Bryant - Apr 10, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Apr 10, 2026
DAL
P.J. Washington - Apr 10, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Apr 10, 2026
Caleb Martin - Apr 10, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Williams - Apr 10, 2026
Naji Marshall - Apr 10, 2026
Klay Thompson - Apr 10, 2026
DEN
DET
Kevin Huerter - Apr 10, 2026
GSW
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
Gui Santos - Apr 9, 2026
LJ Cryer - Apr 9, 2026
Will Richard - Apr 9, 2026
Quinten Post - Apr 12, 2026
Al Horford - Apr 12, 2026
Kristaps Porzingis - Apr 10, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
Pascal Siakam - Apr 10, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Apr 10, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
T.J. McConnell - Apr 10, 2026
Ben Sheppard - Apr 9, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Apr 10, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Ivica Zubac - Oct 1, 2026
LAC
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Jackson - Apr 12, 2026
Darius Garland - Apr 10, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Marcus Smart - Apr 9, 2026
LeBron James - Apr 9, 2026
Austin Reaves - May 1, 2026
Luka Doncic - May 1, 2026
Jaxson Hayes - Apr 10, 2026
MEM
GG Jackson - Apr 10, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Javon Small - Apr 10, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Apr 10, 2026
Cam Spencer - Apr 10, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
Ty Jerome - Apr 10, 2026
MIA
Nikola Jovic - Apr 12, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 15, 2026
MIL
Kyle Kuzma - Apr 10, 2026
Myles Turner - Apr 10, 2026
Bobby Portis - Apr 10, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Apr 10, 2026
MIN
Julius Randle - Apr 10, 2026
Mike Conley - Apr 10, 2026
Ayo Dosunmu - Apr 10, 2026
Anthony Edwards - Apr 10, 2026
Rudy Gobert - Apr 10, 2026
NOP
Trey Murphy III - Apr 10, 2026
Dejounte Murray - Apr 10, 2026
Yves Missi - Apr 12, 2026
Bryce McGowens - Apr 10, 2026
Karlo Matkovic - Apr 10, 2026
OKC
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
Jett Howard - Apr 10, 2026
Jonathan Isaac - Apr 10, 2026
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 10, 2026
Cameron Payne - Apr 20, 2026
PHX
POR
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 10, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Vit Krejci - Apr 10, 2026
Jerami Grant - Apr 10, 2026
SAC
Russell Westbrook - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Apr 12, 2026
DeMar DeRozan - Apr 10, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Apr 10, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Apr 10, 2026
UTA
Ace Bailey - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Apr 10, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Apr 10, 2026
Keyonte George - Apr 10, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
WAS
Alex Sarr - Apr 10, 2026
Trae Young - Oct 1, 2026
Jaden Hardy - Apr 10, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Tre Johnson - Apr 10, 2026
Anthony Davis - Oct 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Oct 1, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic - Apr 10, 2026