NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Wednesday, March 18, 10:02 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 12.8 | 22.3 | 18.9 | 18.1 | 72.1 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.9 | 29.3 | 19.7 | 15.1 | 85.0 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 15.1 | 24.5 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 76.5 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 15.3 | 24.8 | 19.7 | 17.4 | 77.2 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 89.5 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 17.6 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 83.8 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 18.7 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 81.8 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 22.9 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 55.8 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 43.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 45.8 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 35.2 | 34.0 | 16.6 | 9.2 | 95.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 15.5 | 25.2 | 19.6 | 17.7 | 77.9 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.7 | 6.1 | 13.3 | 15.2 | 16.1 | 50.7 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.9 | 10.2 | 18.7 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 64.6 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.4 | 5.4 | 11.1 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 45.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 96.7 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 33.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 83.6 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 57.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 41.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 21.6 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Wednesday, March 18, 10:02 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.8 | 93.3 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.7 | 6.0 | 64.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.9 | 0.7 | 27.2 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.3 | <0.1 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 45.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 43.8 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 42.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.8 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.8 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.3 | 96.8 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 59.9 | 3.2 | 96.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 50.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.6 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.4 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 41.0 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 27.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 27.4 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 27.1 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.4 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
Michael Porter Jr. - Mar 20, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Terance Mann - Mar 18, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Noah Clowney - Mar 18, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 19, 2026
CHI
Anfernee Simons - Mar 27, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 18, 2026
Collin Sexton - Mar 18, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Mar 23, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
DAL
Caleb Martin - Mar 18, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Mar 18, 2026
DEN
Peyton Watson - Mar 20, 2026
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 28, 2026
GSW
Moses Moody - Mar 20, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 25, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 18, 2026
LJ Cryer - Mar 18, 2026
Al Horford - Mar 23, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 23, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Alperen Sengun - Mar 18, 2026
Jae'Sean Tate - Mar 23, 2026
IND
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Micah Potter - Mar 18, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Mar 18, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Mar 21, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
LAC
Bennedict Mathurin - Mar 23, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
Kawhi Leonard - Mar 18, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Maxi Kleber - Mar 19, 2026
MEM
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Ty Jerome - Mar 18, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Mar 20, 2026
GG Jackson - Mar 18, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 20, 2026
MIA
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
Myles Turner - Mar 19, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards - Mar 25, 2026
NOP
Dejounte Murray - Mar 18, 2026
Bryce McGowens - Mar 19, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
Jalen Brunson - Mar 20, 2026
OKC
ORL
PHI
Jabari Walker - Mar 19, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 19, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
PHX
POR
Vit Krejci - Mar 20, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Robert Williams III - Mar 18, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 2, 2026
SAC
Malik Monk - Mar 19, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Devin Carter - Mar 19, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
Devin Vassell - Mar 19, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 20, 2026
Collin Murray-Boyles - Mar 18, 2026
UTA
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Mar 19, 2026
Ace Bailey - Mar 18, 2026
Kyle Filipowski - Mar 18, 2026
John Konchar - Mar 18, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
WAS
Alex Sarr - Mar 19, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 19, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Bilal Coulibaly - Mar 19, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026
Leaky Black - Mar 19, 2026