Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, April 14, 10:00 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	13.8	23.7	18.9	18.1	74.5
BOS	East	100	21.9	30.3	19.6	14.8	86.6
NYK	East	100	18.8	28.3	20.0	16.0	83.0
CLE	East	100	12.1	22.2	18.8	18.6	71.7
TOR	East	100	2.5	5.6	10.4	9.8	28.3
ATL	East	100	1.2	2.9	6.4	6.5	17.0
PHI	East	78.2	0.8	1.8	3.8	4.1	10.4
ORL	East	75.3	1.3	2.9	6.0	5.6	15.8
CHA	East	30.1	0.9	1.8	3.5	3.0	9.2
MIA	East	16.3	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.3	3.5
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.5	34.8	16.0	8.3	95.7
SAS	West	100	25.0	31.9	19.0	13.5	89.4
DEN	West	100	11.5	21.6	18.2	18.7	70.1
LAL	West	100	0.5	1.9	2.6	5.0	10.0
HOU	West	100	27.8	28.6	22.7	11.0	90.0
MIN	West	100	2.8	5.8	11.1	10.2	29.9
PHX	West	81.3	0.5	1.3	3.1	3.4	8.4
POR	West	73.2	0.2	0.7	1.6	1.9	4.4
LAC	West	27.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	1.3
GSW	West	18.4	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7
DAL	West
NOP	West
MEM	West
SAC	West
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, April 14, 10:00 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	60.0			100
BOS	East	56.0				100
NYK	East	53.0
CLE	East	52.0
TOR	East	46.0
ATL	East	46.0
PHI	East	45.0
ORL	East	45.0
CHA	East	44.0
MIA	East	43.0
MIL	East	32.0
CHI	East	31.0
BKN	East	20.0
IND	East	19.0
WAS	East	17.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.0			100
SAS	West	62.0				100
DEN	West	54.0
LAL	West	53.0
HOU	West	52.0
MIN	West	49.0
PHX	West	45.0
POR	West	42.0
LAC	West	42.0
GSW	West	37.0
DAL	West	26.0
NOP	West	26.0
MEM	West	25.0
SAC	West	22.0
UTA	West	22.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.