Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, June 12, 3:30 PM
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
BOS
East 64.0 100
NYK
East 50.0 100
MIL
East 49.0
CLE
East 48.0
PHI
East 47.0
IND
East 47.0
ORL
East 47.0
MIA
East 46.0
CHI
East 39.0
ATL
East 36.0
BKN
East 32.0
TOR
East 25.0
CHA
East 21.0
WAS
East 15.0
DET
East 14.0
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West 57.0 100
DEN
West 57.0 100
MIN
West 56.0
LAC
West 51.0
DAL
West 50.0
NOP
West 49.0
PHX
West 49.0
LAL
West 47.0
SAC
West 46.0
GSW
West 46.0
HOU
West 41.0
UTA
West 31.0
MEM
West 27.0
SAS
West 22.0
POR
West 21.0
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, June 12, 3:30 PM
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
BOS
East 100 100 100
NYK
East 100 100 100
MIL
East 100
CLE
East 100 100 100
PHI
East 100
IND
East 100 100 100
ORL
East 100
MIA
East 100
CHI
East
ATL
East
BKN
East
TOR
East
CHA
East
WAS
East
DET
East
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West 100 100 100
DEN
West 100 100 100
MIN
West 100 100 100
LAC
West 100
DAL
West 100 100 100
NOP
West 100
PHX
West 100
LAL
West 100
SAC
West
GSW
West
HOU
West
UTA
West
MEM
West
SAS
West
POR
West
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Model information in predicting game outcomes

The predictive version of EPM used is based on a statistical/box plus-minus model (read more about what this means here). Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each game given the player's history and context of the game including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not taken into account for individual stats if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series. Game context is still considered for this situation but just at a higher level. Basically, predictions are slightly better once the official schedule is known.

Injured players omitted from predictive EPM component

ATL

Saddiq Bey

BKN

Dariq Whitehead, Keita Bates-Diop, Ben Simmons

CHI

Patrick Williams, Zach LaVine, Lonzo Ball

DEN

Vlatko Cancar

DET

Quentin Grimes, Isaiah Stewart, Stanley Umude, Ausar Thompson

HOU

Steven Adams, Tari Eason

IND

Bennedict Mathurin

LAL

Jalen Hood-Schifino

MEM

Ziaire Williams, Ja Morant, Derrick Rose

MIA

Josh Richardson

NYK

Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic

PHI

Robert Covington

POR

Toumani Camara, Robert Williams III

SAC

Kevin Huerter

SAS

Devin Vassell, Charles Bassey, Jeremy Sochan

UTA

Lauri Markkanen

WAS

Bilal Coulibaly