Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, January 1, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.9	13.4	22.7	18.7	17.4	72.3
DET	East	99.8	9.3	17.6	16.7	16.9	60.5
BOS	East	99.8	16.5	24.9	19.6	16.1	77.2
CLE	East	98.0	11.4	19.1	18.6	15.8	64.9
ORL	East	94.9	5.1	10.0	12.9	12.9	40.9
MIA	East	88.1	3.4	7.2	10.7	10.7	32.0
PHI	East	78.3	2.0	4.0	7.4	7.5	20.9
TOR	East	68.2	1.3	2.8	5.2	5.3	14.5
ATL	East	53.3	1.3	2.9	5.2	5.2	14.5
MIL	East	10.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
CHI	East	8.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.9
BKN	East	1.0	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
CHA	East	0.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.8	34.0	16.5	8.8	95.1
HOU	West	99.9	16.3	25.3	19.4	16.6	77.6
SAS	West	99.6	8.7	17.3	16.8	17.0	59.8
DEN	West	97.0	6.5	12.5	14.6	14.4	48.1
GSW	West	96.5	8.2	14.6	16.6	14.8	54.1
MIN	West	88.6	3.2	6.9	10.2	10.1	30.4
PHX	West	67.5	0.9	2.0	3.9	4.1	10.9
LAL	West	62.9	0.7	1.7	3.1	3.6	9.1
MEM	West	52.8	1.0	2.4	4.0	3.9	11.3
LAC	West	26.1	0.3	0.6	1.1	1.2	3.2
POR	West	5.7	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
DAL	West	3.2	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
UTA	West	0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, January 1, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	54.1			47.2	26.3
DET	East	52.8			28.5	29.7
BOS	East	51.9			18.8	25.4
CLE	East	49.0			3.5	10.2
ORL	East	47.4			1.4	5.3
MIA	East	45.6			0.5	1.9
PHI	East	44.1			0.2	0.8
TOR	East	42.6			0.1	0.2
ATL	East	41.0			<0.1	0.1
MIL	East	35.3
CHI	East	34.8
BKN	East	30.6
CHA	East	29.8
IND	East	22.8
WAS	East	21.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.9			99.1	0.9
HOU	West	55.1			0.7	61.8
SAS	West	52.7			0.2	28.8
DEN	West	48.6			<0.1	4.0
GSW	West	48.2				3.1
MIN	West	46.4			<0.1	1.2
PHX	West	43.3				0.1
LAL	West	42.9				0.1
MEM	West	41.1				<0.1
LAC	West	38.4				<0.1
POR	West	35.0
DAL	West	33.4
UTA	West	27.6
NOP	West	25.4
SAC	West	23.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.