Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, March 23, 10:02 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	13.5	23.0	18.6	17.8	73.0
BOS	East	100	19.7	28.7	19.6	15.8	83.7
NYK	East	100	13.6	23.8	19.1	17.8	74.2
CLE	East	99.9	16.5	26.2	19.4	16.9	79.0
TOR	East	83.5	1.1	2.6	5.3	5.7	14.6
ORL	East	74.3	1.6	3.4	6.7	6.4	18.1
MIA	East	71.4	2.2	4.4	8.4	7.5	22.4
PHI	East	59.9	0.9	1.9	4.1	4.2	11.2
ATL	East	59.6	0.7	1.6	3.6	3.7	9.6
CHA	East	51.3	1.3	2.8	5.2	4.9	14.2
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
WAS	East
IND	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.3	33.8	17.3	9.8	94.3
SAS	West	100	17.1	26.4	20.0	16.6	80.1
LAL	West	99.9	6.0	13.7	14.6	17.3	51.7
DEN	West	99.9	10.3	18.5	19.2	17.3	65.3
HOU	West	99.9	4.6	9.6	13.7	13.7	41.6
MIN	West	99.2	4.7	8.9	14.0	12.7	40.3
PHX	West	80.5	1.2	2.5	5.2	5.0	13.9
LAC	West	56.7	0.6	1.3	2.7	2.9	7.6
POR	West	32.7	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.8	2.1
GSW	West	30.9	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.3	3.2
NOP	West
MEM	West
DAL	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, March 23, 10:02 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	57.9			96.8	2.9
BOS	East	54.2			2.7	58.8
NYK	East	53.0			0.5	34.2
CLE	East	51.9			<0.1	4.1
TOR	East	45.4
ORL	East	44.9
MIA	East	44.5
PHI	East	44.3
ATL	East	44.2
CHA	East	43.4
MIL	East	33.7
CHI	East	32.1
BKN	East	19.9
WAS	East	18.8
IND	East	18.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.2			95.4	4.6
SAS	West	60.4			4.6	95.4
LAL	West	52.7				<0.1
DEN	West	50.8
HOU	West	50.5
MIN	West	49.4
PHX	West	45.4
LAC	West	41.8
POR	West	40.9
GSW	West	39.7
NOP	West	29.0
MEM	West	27.9
DAL	West	26.4
UTA	West	23.3
SAC	West	21.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.