Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, November 13, 10:19 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	19.6	27.8	19.4	15.5	82.3
NYK	East	95.9	8.7	16.0	16.3	16.1	57.1
DET	East	91.2	4.9	10.0	12.1	13.1	40.0
BOS	East	92.5	12.4	19.1	19.0	14.9	65.4
ATL	East	83.8	4.5	8.9	11.6	11.3	36.3
ORL	East	80.2	4.5	8.5	11.3	10.8	35.0
MIA	East	79.8	4.1	8.0	10.9	10.7	33.6
PHI	East	75.4	3.1	6.8	9.3	9.3	28.5
MIL	East	42.6	0.8	1.9	3.2	3.5	9.3
TOR	East	33.6	0.6	1.5	2.5	2.8	7.4
CHI	East	24.5	0.4	1.0	1.6	1.9	4.9
IND	East	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.2			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.6	34.3	15.6	8.2	95.8
HOU	West	99.9	17.2	26.0	19.8	16.5	79.5
DEN	West	99.7	11.7	20.8	18.4	17.7	68.6
GSW	West	95.9	7.8	14.3	16.0	14.8	52.8
LAL	West	89.9	3.0	6.6	9.6	9.9	29.1
MIN	West	86.3	3.6	7.1	10.1	9.7	30.5
SAS	West	81.2	2.3	4.8	7.6	7.8	22.5
LAC	West	46.4	0.8	1.7	3.0	3.1	8.5
POR	West	41.9	0.5	1.1	2.1	2.2	5.9
MEM	West	32.4	0.4	0.9	1.7	1.7	4.7
PHX	West	14.4	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.8
DAL	West	11.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
SAC	West	0.2		<0.1	<0.1		<0.1
NOP	West	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, November 13, 10:19 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	56.8			78.4	14.1
NYK	East	49.9			8.9	26.8
DET	East	48.3			4.0	15.9
BOS	East	48.0			3.4	13.9
ATL	East	46.4			1.8	8.8
ORL	East	45.8			1.2	6.5
MIA	East	45.7			1.2	6.7
PHI	East	45.2			1.0	5.8
MIL	East	41.5			0.1	0.8
TOR	East	40.4			0.1	0.5
CHI	East	39.2			<0.1	0.2
IND	East	29.3
CHA	East	29.0
BKN	East	19.6
WAS	East	17.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.1			98.1	1.8
HOU	West	55.9			1.4	60.0
DEN	West	53.6			0.5	31.1
GSW	West	48.1			<0.1	3.9
LAL	West	46.2			<0.1	1.5
MIN	West	45.4			<0.1	1.0
SAS	West	44.6				0.7
LAC	West	39.8				<0.1
POR	West	39.6				<0.1
MEM	West	38.2				<0.1
PHX	West	36.0				<0.1
DAL	West	34.8
SAC	West	27.6
NOP	West	26.0
UTA	West	23.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.