NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 50,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, October 13, 10:19 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 22.9 | 29.8 | 19.8 | 13.9 | 86.4 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 99.4 | 11.8 | 20.4 | 18.4 | 17.2 | 67.9 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 99.1 | 11.9 | 20.6 | 18.4 | 17.2 | 68.0 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 85.1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 37.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 78.8 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 43.6 | |||||||||||||||
DET  | East | 73.4 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 62.4 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 61.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 43.9 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||
IND  | East | 42.7 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 33.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 16.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 3.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 26.2 | 31.1 | 19.0 | 12.9 | 89.1 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.3 | 13.6 | 22.5 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 72.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 97.6 | 7.8 | 14.7 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 54.4 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 96.1 | 7.5 | 14.3 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 52.6 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 95.3 | 5.9 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 46.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 81.6 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 28.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 71.8 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 20.7 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 68.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | 48.1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 28.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 7.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 3.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | 1.7 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 0.9 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, October 13, 10:19 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 55.2 | 73.7 | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 49.3 | 13.0 | 35.7 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 49.0 | 11.6 | 33.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 42.7 | 0.9 | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 41.1 | 0.3 | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 40.7 | 0.3 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 39.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 39.3 | 0.1 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 37.3 | <0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 37.1 | <0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 36.0 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 33.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 29.5 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 26.2 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 60.8 | 88.4 | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.2 | 5.3 | 35.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 50.6 | 2.9 | 22.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 49.4 | 1.7 | 15.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 49.0 | 1.4 | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 45.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 43.6 | 0.1 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 43.2 | <0.1 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 40.6 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 38.4 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 34.3 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 31.8 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 30.7 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 29.8 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 20.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jalen Johnson - Oct 16, 2025
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 22, 2025
CHI
Tre Jones - Oct 14, 2025
CLE
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Oct 14, 2025
Sam Merrill - Oct 14, 2025
DAL
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 15, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
DET
Jaden Ivey - Oct 14, 2025
GSW
HOU
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 17, 2025
LAL
LeBron James - Oct 31, 2025
MEM
MIA
Terry Rozier - Oct 17, 2025
Tyler Herro - Nov 17, 2025
MIN
Joe Ingles - Oct 22, 2025
NOP
OKC
Kenrich Williams - Nov 11, 2025
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Nikola Topic - Nov 11, 2025
Jalen Williams - Oct 21, 2025
ORL
Jalen Suggs - Oct 22, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Oct 22, 2025
PHI
Paul George - Oct 17, 2025
Kyle Lowry - Oct 17, 2025
Jared McCain - Nov 8, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 17, 2025
POR
SAC
Keegan Murray - Nov 30, 2025
SAS
TOR
UTA
WAS