Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, December 24, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	10.7	19.4	17.5	17.3	64.9
NYK	East	99.9	13.3	21.6	18.3	17.3	70.5
BOS	East	99.5	15.0	23.1	19.4	16.2	73.7
ORL	East	97.6	6.7	13.1	15.1	14.7	49.6
CLE	East	97.4	10.2	17.3	18.0	15.5	61.0
PHI	East	80.8	2.1	4.8	7.8	8.1	22.9
MIA	East	76.4	2.3	5.0	8.2	7.8	23.4
TOR	East	70.5	1.4	3.0	5.6	6.0	15.9
ATL	East	56.3	1.4	3.1	5.3	5.6	15.5
CHI	East	13.6	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.7
MIL	East	6.9	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	1.0
BKN	East	0.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.4	34.1	16.3	8.9	94.7
HOU	West	99.7	13.3	21.5	18.8	16.9	70.4
SAS	West	99.3	7.6	15.0	15.9	16.3	54.8
DEN	West	98.9	7.4	14.5	15.2	16.0	53.1
MIN	West	94.7	4.5	9.6	12.6	12.4	39.1
GSW	West	94.7	6.9	12.7	16.0	13.7	49.3
LAL	West	77.0	1.2	2.9	5.1	5.6	14.8
MEM	West	61.8	1.7	3.3	5.6	5.4	15.9
PHX	West	49.4	0.5	1.1	2.2	2.4	6.3
POR	West	8.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
LAC	West	9.0	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
DAL	West	7.4	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4
NOP	West	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, December 24, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	54.0			45.1	28.7
NYK	East	53.3			35.8	30.6
BOS	East	50.7			11.8	20.6
ORL	East	48.5			3.7	9.7
CLE	East	48.1			3.1	8.1
PHI	East	44.2			0.3	1.3
MIA	East	43.3			0.1	0.6
TOR	East	42.5			0.1	0.3
ATL	East	41.0			<0.1	0.1
CHI	East	35.7
MIL	East	33.9
BKN	East	29.1
CHA	East	29.0
IND	East	24.8
WAS	East	17.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	66.7			99.6	0.4
HOU	West	53.4			0.2	37.1
SAS	West	52.7			0.2	31.9
DEN	West	51.7			0.1	19.8
MIN	West	49.1			<0.1	6.1
GSW	West	48.2			<0.1	3.9
LAL	West	45.3				0.7
MEM	West	42.5				0.1
PHX	West	42.1				<0.1
POR	West	35.5
LAC	West	35.4
DAL	West	34.9
NOP	West	26.8
UTA	West	25.4
SAC	West	24.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.