Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, March 7, 6:08 PM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	14.9	24.1	19.2	17.7	75.9
BOS	East	100	20.8	28.8	20.0	15.1	84.7
NYK	East	100	15.9	25.1	19.5	17.2	77.7
CLE	East	99.9	16.3	25.9	19.8	17.0	79.0
MIA	East	89.2	2.1	4.6	8.6	8.3	23.7
TOR	East	87.0	1.2	2.5	5.2	5.5	14.4
ORL	East	69.6	1.2	2.5	5.4	5.4	14.5
PHI	East	65.3	0.8	1.8	3.9	4.0	10.4
CHA	East	55.9	1.4	3.0	5.6	5.3	15.2
ATL	East	32.6	0.3	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.6
MIL	East	0.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHI	East	<0.1
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.5	33.8	17.3	9.5	94.1
SAS	West	100	13.4	22.9	18.9	17.6	72.8
HOU	West	99.7	7.9	15.7	16.7	17.0	57.3
DEN	West	99.4	8.8	16.4	17.6	16.7	59.5
MIN	West	98.8	5.6	11.6	14.4	14.7	46.2
LAL	West	93.7	2.7	5.8	9.6	9.9	27.8
PHX	West	77.9	1.5	3.1	5.8	5.7	16.1
GSW	West	69.9	2.1	4.0	7.2	6.7	20.0
LAC	West	42.4	0.4	0.9	1.9	2.0	5.2
POR	West	18.2	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
MEM	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
DAL	West
NOP	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, March 7, 6:08 PM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	59.3			96.6	3.0
BOS	East	54.4			2.6	54.0
NYK	East	53.1			0.5	30.7
CLE	East	52.5			0.3	12.3
MIA	East	45.7				<0.1
TOR	East	45.5				<0.1
ORL	East	44.1
PHI	East	43.7
CHA	East	42.5
ATL	East	41.5
MIL	East	35.3
CHI	East	32.1
BKN	East	21.4
IND	East	20.7
WAS	East	19.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	62.9			93.3	6.7
SAS	West	58.5			6.7	92.4
HOU	West	51.0				0.5
DEN	West	49.9				0.2
MIN	West	49.8				0.2
LAL	West	47.7				<0.1
PHX	West	45.2
GSW	West	43.8
LAC	West	41.9
POR	West	39.6
MEM	West	30.8
DAL	West	27.2
NOP	West	26.9
UTA	West	24.2
SAC	West	19.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.