NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Friday, March 20, 10:02 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 8.8 | 17.9 | 17.0 | 18.1 | 61.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.4 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.5 | 85.0 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 14.7 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 76.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 15.5 | 25.1 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 77.8 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 90.9 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 78.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 19.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 72.3 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 22.3 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 59.5 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 53.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 46.2 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 32.7 | 33.7 | 17.3 | 10.1 | 93.8 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 15.9 | 25.2 | 19.6 | 17.3 | 78.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.9 | 6.7 | 14.7 | 15.0 | 17.5 | 53.8 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.9 | 11.1 | 19.6 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 67.2 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.3 | 4.5 | 9.6 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 40.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 97.9 | 3.5 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 34.2 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 83.0 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 18.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 47.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 42.8 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 29.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Friday, March 20, 10:02 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.3 | 88.4 | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.9 | 10.4 | 63.8 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.9 | 1.0 | 24.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.4 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.8 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 44.3 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.9 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.2 | 95.4 | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 60.2 | 4.6 | 95.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.2 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.2 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.8 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 41.2 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 40.7 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.5 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 29.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 28.3 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.7 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Mar 21, 2026
BKN
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Noah Clowney - Mar 22, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 24, 2026
CHI
Jaden Ivey - Mar 23, 2026
Jalen Smith - Mar 23, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 23, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 27, 2026
CLE
Olivier Sarr - Mar 21, 2026
Jarrett Allen - Mar 24, 2026
Donovan Mitchell - Mar 21, 2026
Tyrese Proctor - Mar 24, 2026
Craig Porter Jr. - Mar 24, 2026
DAL
Brandon Williams - Mar 23, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 21, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
Peyton Watson - Mar 22, 2026
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
GSW
Moses Moody - Mar 25, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 23, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Al Horford - Mar 23, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 25, 2026
HOU
IND
Obi Toppin - Mar 21, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Mar 21, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
Micah Potter - Mar 21, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Mar 21, 2026
LAC
Bennedict Mathurin - Mar 23, 2026
Darius Garland - Mar 21, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
Kawhi Leonard - Mar 21, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Maxi Kleber - Mar 21, 2026
MEM
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 21, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Mar 27, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 21, 2026
MIA
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 21, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards - Mar 25, 2026
Naz Reid - Mar 22, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 24, 2026
Dejounte Murray - Mar 21, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
Josh Hart - Mar 22, 2026
OKC
Isaiah Hartenstein - Mar 21, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Branden Carlson - Mar 23, 2026
Jalen Williams - Mar 23, 2026
ORL
Anthony Black - Mar 23, 2026
Jonathan Isaac - Mar 23, 2026
Wendell Carter Jr. - Mar 21, 2026
Franz Wagner - Mar 23, 2026
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 23, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
PHX
Royce O'Neale - Mar 21, 2026
Grayson Allen - Mar 21, 2026
Dillon Brooks - Mar 24, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 22, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
POR
SAC
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Nique Clifford - Mar 22, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
Devin Carter - Mar 22, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
Stephon Castle - Mar 21, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 22, 2026
Collin Murray-Boyles - Mar 22, 2026
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Mar 23, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Brice Sensabaugh - Mar 23, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
John Konchar - Mar 21, 2026
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
WAS
Leaky Black - Mar 22, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 22, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Bilal Coulibaly - Mar 21, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026