NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, June 23, 9:48 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
DET  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 100 | 100 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
POR  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, June 23, 9:48 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 64.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 61.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.0 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DET | East | 44.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 41.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 37.0 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 30.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 24.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 68.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 34.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Jalen Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - Oct 1, 2025
Clint Capela - Oct 1, 2025
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
BKN
Cameron Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Ziaire Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Noah Clowney - Oct 1, 2025
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
Cam Thomas - Oct 1, 2025
Reece Beekman - Oct 1, 2025
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 1, 2025
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
Bojan Bogdanović - Oct 1, 2025
BOS
Jaylen Brown - Oct 1, 2025
Jayson Tatum - Feb 1, 2026
CHA
Miles Bridges - Jul 1, 2025
Brandon Miller - Oct 1, 2025
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
LaMelo Ball - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
CLE
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
Sam Merrill - Oct 1, 2025
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Oct 1, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 1, 2025
Russell Westbrook - Oct 1, 2025
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Oct 1, 2025
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2025
GSW
HOU
Jock Landale - Oct 1, 2025
Jae'Sean Tate - Oct 1, 2025
IND
LAC
Seth Lundy - Jul 2, 2025
LAL
Dorian Finney-Smith - Oct 1, 2025
MEM
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2025
Zach Edey - Nov 1, 2025
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2025
Zyon Pullin - Jul 2, 2025
MIA
MIL
Tyler Smith - Jul 2, 2025
Damian Lillard - Feb 1, 2026
NOP
Yves Missi - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Hawkins - Oct 1, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Oct 1, 2025
Karlo Matkovic - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Boston - Oct 1, 2025
Zion Williamson - Oct 1, 2025
Bruce Brown - Oct 1, 2025
Trey Murphy III - Oct 1, 2025
Herbert Jones - Oct 1, 2025
CJ McCollum - Oct 1, 2025
OKC
Nikola Topic - Jul 2, 2025
ORL
Moritz Wagner - Oct 1, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 1, 2025
PHI
Joel Embiid - Oct 1, 2025
Jared McCain - Oct 1, 2025
Justin Edwards - Oct 1, 2025
Andre Drummond - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Maxey - Oct 1, 2025
Paul George - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Oct 1, 2025
Alex Reese - Oct 1, 2025
Guerschon Yabusele - Oct 1, 2025
Kyle Lowry - Oct 1, 2025
Eric Gordon - Oct 1, 2025
PHX
Devin Booker - Oct 1, 2025
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2025
Nick Richards - Oct 1, 2025
Kevin Durant - Oct 1, 2025
Vasilije Micic - Oct 1, 2025
POR
Jerami Grant - Oct 1, 2025
Deandre Ayton - Oct 1, 2025
Scoot Henderson - Oct 1, 2025
Shaedon Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
Bryce McGowens - Oct 1, 2025
Deni Avdija - Oct 1, 2025
Anfernee Simons - Oct 1, 2025
Robert Williams III - Oct 1, 2025
SAC
Jake LaRavia - Oct 1, 2025
Malik Monk - Oct 1, 2025
SAS
Jeremy Sochan - Oct 1, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Oct 1, 2025
Riley Minix - Jul 1, 2025
De'Aaron Fox - Oct 1, 2025
Devin Vassell - Oct 1, 2025
TOR
Garrett Temple - Oct 1, 2025
Jakob Poeltl - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Ingram - Oct 1, 2025
Chris Boucher - Oct 1, 2025
RJ Barrett - Oct 1, 2025
Ja'Kobe Walter - Oct 1, 2025
Gradey Dick - Oct 1, 2025
Ulrich Chomche - Jul 1, 2025
Immanuel Quickley - Oct 1, 2025
Jared Rhoden - Oct 1, 2025
UTA
Cody Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Elijah Harkless - Jul 1, 2025
KJ Martin - Oct 1, 2025
Lauri Markkanen - Oct 1, 2025
John Collins - Oct 1, 2025
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2025
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
Isaiah Collier - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Clarkson - Oct 1, 2025
WAS
Khris Middleton - Oct 1, 2025
Richaun Holmes - Oct 1, 2025
JT Thor - Oct 1, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Oct 1, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Poole - Oct 1, 2025
Saddiq Bey - Oct 1, 2025
Anthony Gill - Oct 1, 2025
Corey Kispert - Oct 1, 2025