Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, December 15, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.8	13.2	21.9	18.8	16.8	70.8
DET	East	99.1	7.2	13.7	14.6	15.4	50.9
BOS	East	99.1	14.9	23.1	19.4	16.2	73.7
CLE	East	99.0	12.9	20.7	19.0	16.1	68.8
ORL	East	98.1	7.9	14.8	16.0	15.3	54.0
MIA	East	84.7	2.7	5.6	9.2	9.0	26.5
ATL	East	80.3	2.5	5.1	8.7	8.5	24.8
PHI	East	71.1	1.5	3.6	6.3	6.5	17.9
TOR	East	55.4	0.9	2.0	4.0	4.3	11.2
MIL	East	7.0	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.8
CHI	East	4.0	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
CHA	East	1.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	0.7	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.2	33.7	16.0	8.3	95.3
HOU	West	99.9	16.6	25.1	19.2	16.7	77.6
DEN	West	98.7	7.7	15.2	16.4	16.3	55.7
SAS	West	97.5	5.7	11.3	13.9	14.1	44.9
LAL	West	93.8	2.7	6.0	9.1	10.2	27.9
MIN	West	91.4	4.2	8.2	11.6	11.3	35.3
GSW	West	93.2	6.7	12.1	15.0	13.2	47.0
MEM	West	59.9	1.2	2.5	4.3	4.2	12.2
PHX	West	32.3	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	2.1
DAL	West	12.8	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9
POR	West	10.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
LAC	West	10.3	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, December 15, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	54.0			46.3	22.7
DET	East	51.5			17.5	20.5
BOS	East	51.1			15.1	19.4
CLE	East	50.8			12.2	19.1
ORL	East	49.8			7.6	14.4
MIA	East	45.3			0.6	1.9
ATL	East	44.5			0.4	1.2
PHI	East	43.3			0.2	0.5
TOR	East	41.5			<0.1	0.2
MIL	East	32.5
CHI	East	31.2
CHA	East	28.7
BKN	East	26.8
IND	East	26.7
WAS	East	17.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	68.0			99.0	1.0
HOU	West	57.3			0.9	77.4
DEN	West	51.4			<0.1	10.3
SAS	West	50.2			<0.1	6.3
LAL	West	48.5			<0.1	2.3
MIN	West	47.6				1.4
GSW	West	47.6				1.3
MEM	West	41.7				<0.1
PHX	West	39.7				<0.1
DAL	West	36.0
POR	West	35.7
LAC	West	35.4
UTA	West	25.9
NOP	West	25.1
SAC	West	24.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.