Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
BOS
East10029.332.218.611.591.6
CLE
East99.916.324.819.716.577.2
ORL
East99.913.821.919.416.972.1
NYK
East99.510.618.518.216.764.1
MIL
East94.93.88.111.711.635.3
MIA
East81.62.34.98.48.524.0
ATL
East55.70.71.73.23.69.3
IND
East55.40.81.93.63.910.3
PHI
East44.90.92.03.53.710.1
BKN
East20.30.10.40.70.92.1
CHI
East19.30.10.30.60.71.7
DET
East13.50.10.20.40.51.1
CHA
East7.1<0.10.10.20.20.5
TOR
East7.7<0.10.10.30.30.7
WAS
East<0.1
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West99.919.727.620.215.582.9
DAL
West98.110.719.318.317.165.5
HOU
West96.47.414.415.616.053.5
GSW
West90.35.711.613.813.744.8
LAC
West83.24.48.911.711.736.8
MEM
West81.34.38.611.411.335.7
DEN
West73.73.16.49.19.227.8
PHX
West59.61.94.36.56.619.3
MIN
West55.22.34.66.96.720.4
SAS
West21.60.40.81.41.64.2
LAL
West21.00.30.81.41.64.1
SAC
West19.50.51.01.71.84.9
POR
West<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
NOP
West<0.1<0.1<0.1
UTA
West
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
BOS
East58.580.515.4
CLE
East53.414.353.0
ORL
East50.84.524.2
NYK
East47.30.76.5
MIL
East43.1<0.10.8
MIA
East39.9<0.10.1
ATL
East37.0<0.1
IND
East36.9<0.1
PHI
East35.3<0.1
BKN
East33.1
CHI
East32.8<0.1
DET
East31.9
CHA
East30.4
TOR
East30.3
WAS
East19.1
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West57.584.611.6
DAL
West50.57.533.0
HOU
West49.44.525.1
GSW
West47.51.813.0
LAC
West45.90.55.9
MEM
West45.70.65.4
DEN
West44.70.33.2
PHX
West43.00.11.8
MIN
West42.30.10.9
SAS
West39.0<0.10.1
LAL
West39.0<0.10.1
SAC
West38.5<0.10.1
POR
West28.0
NOP
West26.1
UTA
West23.0
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.

Injured players and estimated return date.

ATL
Cody Zeller - Dec 6, 2024
Seth Lundy - Dec 6, 2024
BKN
Dorian Finney-Smith - Dec 4, 2024
Cam Thomas - Dec 18, 2024
Noah Clowney - Dec 19, 2024
Noah Clowney - Dec 19, 2024
Jaylen Martin - Dec 8, 2024
Bojan Bogdanović - Dec 4, 2024
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
Patrick Williams - Dec 5, 2024
CLE
Max Strus - Dec 27, 2024
Emoni Bates - Dec 7, 2024
DAL
Danté Exum - Jan 9, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 1, 2025
GSW
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
IND
Ben Sheppard - Dec 16, 2024
Aaron Nesmith - Dec 17, 2024
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
James Wiseman - Oct 1, 2025
LAC
Kobe Brown - Dec 4, 2024
Kevin Porter Jr. - Dec 4, 2024
Kawhi Leonard - Dec 18, 2024
LAL
Christian Wood - Dec 19, 2024
Jaxson Hayes - Dec 19, 2024
Jarred Vanderbilt - Jan 9, 2025
MEM
Zach Edey - Dec 5, 2024
GG Jackson II - Jan 15, 2025
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 5, 2025
MIA
Josh Richardson - Dec 4, 2024
Nikola Jović - Dec 4, 2024
MIL
Khris Middleton - Dec 4, 2024
MIN
Joe Ingles - Dec 4, 2024
NOP
Zion Williamson - Dec 21, 2024
Jose Alvarado - Dec 24, 2024
Jordan Hawkins - Dec 5, 2024
Brandon Ingram - Dec 5, 2024
Herbert Jones - Dec 5, 2024
NYK
Precious Achiuwa - Dec 9, 2024
Mitchell Robinson - Jan 1, 2025
OKC
Ousmane Dieng - Dec 19, 2024
Jaylin Williams - Dec 5, 2024
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Chet Holmgren - Jan 5, 2025
Alex Caruso - Dec 5, 2024
ORL
Gary Harris - Dec 4, 2024
Paolo Banchero - Dec 5, 2024
PHI
Andre Drummond - Dec 6, 2024
Joel Embiid - Dec 4, 2024
PHX
Collin Gillespie - Dec 18, 2024
POR
Donovan Clingan - Dec 13, 2024
Matisse Thybulle - Dec 31, 2024
Robert Williams III - Dec 6, 2024
SAC
Trey Lyles - Dec 18, 2024
Devin Carter - Jan 10, 2025
TOR
Kelly Olynyk - Dec 9, 2024
Bruce Brown - Dec 9, 2024
Immanuel Quickley - Dec 15, 2024
UTA
Kyle Filipowski - Dec 6, 2024
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Clarkson - Dec 6, 2024
WAS
Kyle Kuzma - Dec 5, 2024
Saddiq Bey - Dec 10, 2024