Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, February 26, 10:34 AM
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
BOS
East 63.7 99.9 <0.1
CLE
East 52.6 <0.1 71.0
MIL
East 50.1 <0.1 16.4
NYK
East 49.0 <0.1 9.0
PHI
East 46.8 1.8
ORL
East 45.8 0.8
IND
East 45.1 0.6
MIA
East 44.8 0.3
CHI
East 38.7
ATL
East 36.2
BKN
East 33.0
TOR
East 32.1
CHA
East 21.6
WAS
East 17.1
DET
East 15.9
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West 56.8 45.7 39.1
MIN
West 56.6 46.0 33.1
DEN
West 53.6 5.5 14.9
LAC
West 52.9 2.8 12.5
NOP
West 47.9 <0.1 0.2
SAC
West 46.5 <0.1 0.1
DAL
West 45.9 <0.1 <0.1
PHX
West 45.6 <0.1 <0.1
GSW
West 43.5 <0.1
LAL
West 42.1 <0.1
HOU
West 37.9
UTA
West 36.6
MEM
West 30.8
POR
West 22.6
SAS
West 18.3
Conf WinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities.

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, February 26, 10:34 AM
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
BOS
East 100 28.3 32.8 18.3 12.0 91.4
CLE
East 99.9 11.3 20.8 18.2 18.1 68.4
MIL
East 99.5 7.4 15.1 15.7 17.0 55.3
NYK
East 98.7 9.3 17.1 17.8 16.7 60.9
PHI
East 94.4 5.3 10.2 14.0 13.0 42.4
ORL
East 90.7 3.0 6.3 10.0 10.0 29.3
IND
East 87.3 2.6 5.5 9.1 9.0 26.2
MIA
East 86.3 2.2 4.8 8.3 8.2 23.5
CHI
East 23.6 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.7
ATL
East 13.8 <0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7
BKN
East 3.9 <0.1 <0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
TOR
East 1.9 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 0.1
CHA
East
WAS
East
DET
East
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West 99.9 16.2 26.0 19.5 17.2 78.8
MIN
West 99.9 14.8 24.8 19.2 17.6 76.5
DEN
West 99.9 8.9 17.9 16.7 18.1 61.6
LAC
West 99.9 9.0 17.7 16.9 17.8 61.4
NOP
West 92.5 4.8 9.3 14.2 12.3 40.6
SAC
West 81.4 2.1 4.5 8.1 7.9 22.5
DAL
West 75.4 1.7 3.7 7.1 6.8 19.3
PHX
West 72.7 2.0 4.2 7.7 7.3 21.3
GSW
West 44.6 1.1 2.3 4.4 4.2 12.0
LAL
West 29.3 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.0 5.3
HOU
West 3.6 <0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6
UTA
West 0.8 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 0.1
MEM
West <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1
POR
West
SAS
West
Conf Makein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1 Win Conference Semifinals Win Conference Finals Win Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities.