Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, February 21, 10:12 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	19.7	27.8	19.8	15.5	82.8
BOS	East	99.9	20.1	28.4	19.6	15.4	83.6
CLE	East	99.9	17.7	26.8	19.6	16.4	80.5
NYK	East	99.9	12.9	22.0	19.2	17.2	71.3
TOR	East	94.4	1.5	3.6	6.8	7.2	19.2
MIA	East	88.1	2.3	4.8	8.9	8.5	24.4
ORL	East	76.8	1.5	3.2	6.1	6.3	17.1
PHI	East	72.7	0.9	2.0	4.4	4.6	11.8
CHA	East	36.0	0.5	1.1	2.4	2.5	6.4
ATL	East	22.0	0.2	0.3	0.8	0.9	2.2
MIL	East	9.9	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.9
CHI	East	0.1
IND	East
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.7	33.5	16.9	9.8	93.9
SAS	West	100	11.1	20.3	17.8	17.9	67.2
HOU	West	99.5	8.5	16.5	17.0	16.7	58.8
DEN	West	99.1	8.4	16.1	16.9	16.3	57.7
MIN	West	97.1	6.5	12.3	15.6	14.2	48.6
LAL	West	91.0	2.1	4.7	7.9	8.5	23.1
PHX	West	83.7	2.0	4.2	7.3	7.2	20.6
GSW	West	76.2	2.8	5.7	9.1	8.1	25.7
LAC	West	33.4	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.3	3.4
POR	West	19.2	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	1.0
MEM	West	0.7		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
DAL	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, February 21, 10:12 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	59.9			95.2	4.0
BOS	East	53.9			2.5	55.1
CLE	East	53.1			2.2	28.6
NYK	East	50.7			0.1	12.1
TOR	East	46.3			<0.1	0.2
MIA	East	44.8				<0.1
ORL	East	43.6				<0.1
PHI	East	43.2				<0.1
CHA	East	39.9
ATL	East	39.3
MIL	East	37.2
CHI	East	32.5
IND	East	23.6
BKN	East	23.3
WAS	East	22.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	61.1			93.9	6.0
SAS	West	55.6			6.0	79.5
HOU	West	51.3			<0.1	7.5
DEN	West	50.3			0.1	4.7
MIN	West	49.2			<0.1	1.9
LAL	West	47.5				0.3
PHX	West	45.9				0.1
GSW	West	44.3				<0.1
LAC	West	41.2				<0.1
POR	West	39.3
MEM	West	33.1
DAL	West	28.8
UTA	West	25.3
NOP	West	25.0
SAC	West	18.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.