Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, January 4, 10:16 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	99.9	19.6	27.1	20.0	15.3	82.0
NYK	East	99.7	11.4	20.3	18.0	17.0	66.9
DET	East	99.5	8.6	16.3	16.2	16.8	57.8
CLE	East	97.9	12.0	19.7	18.8	16.3	66.7
PHI	East	88.4	2.9	6.3	9.2	9.7	28.0
ORL	East	89.6	4.1	8.5	11.8	11.7	36.1
MIA	East	86.6	3.6	7.2	10.8	10.2	31.8
TOR	East	69.5	1.3	3.0	5.4	5.6	15.3
ATL	East	50.1	1.2	2.6	4.7	4.6	13.1
MIL	East	10.9	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.5	1.3
CHI	East	7.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7
CHA	East	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.3	33.9	15.9	8.5	95.6
HOU	West	99.9	16.0	24.7	19.2	16.8	76.6
SAS	West	99.6	9.2	17.4	16.6	16.9	60.2
DEN	West	96.7	6.9	13.1	15.2	14.5	49.8
GSW	West	94.1	6.7	12.4	15.4	13.9	48.4
MIN	West	91.9	4.0	8.2	11.6	11.5	35.2
LAL	West	70.5	0.8	2.2	3.9	4.4	11.3
PHX	West	68.6	1.0	2.3	4.1	4.3	11.8
MEM	West	43.8	0.7	1.6	2.9	2.8	8.1
LAC	West	18.8	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.7	2.0
POR	West	12.7	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
DAL	West	3.2	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, January 4, 10:16 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	53.3			40.5	26.9
NYK	East	52.2			27.5	26.5
DET	East	51.9			24.1	25.0
CLE	East	49.2			5.1	12.3
PHI	East	46.3			1.2	3.2
ORL	East	46.2			0.8	3.2
MIA	East	45.6			0.7	2.3
TOR	East	43.1			0.1	0.4
ATL	East	41.2			<0.1	0.1
MIL	East	35.9				<0.1
CHI	East	35.0
CHA	East	30.2
BKN	East	28.6
IND	East	22.4
WAS	East	22.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	66.4			99.6	0.4
HOU	West	54.5			0.3	58.7
SAS	West	52.4			0.1	31.1
DEN	West	48.5			<0.1	4.6
GSW	West	47.3				2.3
MIN	West	47.3				2.5
LAL	West	43.8				0.2
PHX	West	43.5				0.2
MEM	West	40.4				<0.1
LAC	West	37.7
POR	West	37.1
DAL	West	33.8
UTA	West	27.3
NOP	West	24.3
SAC	West	22.4
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.