NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
A premium subscription is required to unlock all columns of data.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Sunday, March 29, 10:01 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 14.0 | 23.5 | 18.9 | 17.8 | 74.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.0 | 28.6 | 19.8 | 15.5 | 83.9 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.6 | 23.7 | 19.2 | 18.1 | 74.6 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 100 | 14.6 | 24.8 | 19.5 | 17.6 | 76.4 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 84.6 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 15.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 83.9 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 18.9 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 78.6 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 55.0 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 12.7 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 51.0 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 47.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 35.1 | 34.2 | 16.6 | 9.1 | 94.9 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 17.5 | 27.2 | 19.6 | 16.7 | 81.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 7.5 | 16.0 | 15.7 | 18.0 | 57.2 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 10.6 | 20.1 | 18.6 | 18.3 | 67.6 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.9 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 12.3 | 37.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.6 | 4.1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 37.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 81.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 25.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 25.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Sunday, March 29, 10:01 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.7 | 98.9 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 55.0 | 1.1 | 78.0 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.8 | <0.1 | 20.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.8 | 0.9 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.7 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 45.6 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 45.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 44.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 43.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 31.8 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 63.9 | 87.9 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 61.4 | 12.1 | 87.9 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.7 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.6 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.2 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.8 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.6 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 39.9 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 28.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 27.3 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.7 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 22.3 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Mar 30, 2026
Onyeka Okongwu - Mar 30, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Dyson Daniels - Mar 30, 2026
BKN
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Danny Wolf - Mar 31, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
BOS
Jaylen Brown - Mar 29, 2026
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 29, 2026
CHI
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Guerschon Yabusele - Mar 30, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Smith - Oct 1, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 30, 2026
Nick Richards - Mar 30, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Mar 30, 2026
Khris Middleton - Mar 30, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 30, 2026
DEN
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Apr 2, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
GSW
De'Anthony Melton - Mar 29, 2026
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
Al Horford - Apr 5, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 29, 2026
Stephen Curry - Apr 1, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 29, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Marcus Smart - Mar 30, 2026
Adou Thiero - Mar 30, 2026
MEM
Ty Jerome - Mar 30, 2026
Cam Spencer - Mar 30, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Mar 30, 2026
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Taj Gibson - Mar 30, 2026
Taylor Hendricks - Mar 30, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
Jahmir Young - Mar 29, 2026
MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 29, 2026
Thanasis Antetokounmpo - Mar 29, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Bobby Portis - Mar 29, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Mar 29, 2026
Gary Harris - Mar 29, 2026
MIN
NOP
Dejounte Murray - Mar 29, 2026
Bryce McGowens - Apr 2, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Mar 29, 2026
Hunter Dickinson - Mar 29, 2026
NYK
OKC
ORL
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
PHX
Mark Williams - Mar 30, 2026
Amir Coffey - Mar 30, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 30, 2026
Dillon Brooks - Mar 30, 2026
POR
Vit Krejci - Mar 31, 2026
Jerami Grant - Mar 31, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Shaedon Sharpe - Apr 2, 2026
SAC
Russell Westbrook - Apr 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Apr 1, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Mar 29, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
UTA
Keyonte George - Mar 30, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Isaiah Collier - Mar 30, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
Tre Johnson - Mar 30, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 30, 2026
Kyshawn George - Apr 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Mar 30, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026