Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, January 30, 10:14 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	13.4	22.4	19.0	17.7	72.4
BOS	East	99.8	17.6	26.2	20.0	16.1	79.8
CLE	East	99.7	14.8	24.0	19.5	16.5	74.8
NYK	East	99.5	10.0	18.7	17.8	16.8	63.4
TOR	East	91.0	2.5	5.3	8.7	9.3	25.8
MIA	East	85.7	2.9	5.9	9.2	9.2	27.1
PHI	East	78.3	1.8	4.0	6.8	7.2	19.7
ORL	East	75.2	2.3	4.7	7.9	8.0	22.9
ATL	East	42.1	0.8	1.6	3.4	3.3	9.1
CHI	East	15.2	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.9	2.3
CHA	East	12.6	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.0	2.6
MIL	East	1.0	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.0	33.8	17.0	9.4	94.2
SAS	West	99.6	9.8	18.2	17.5	17.4	62.8
HOU	West	99.5	10.8	19.3	18.3	17.4	65.8
DEN	West	96.8	6.1	12.4	14.7	14.6	47.9
MIN	West	95.4	5.9	11.6	14.5	14.1	46.1
PHX	West	90.0	2.9	6.6	9.8	10.1	29.4
GSW	West	83.4	4.1	7.7	11.3	10.0	33.1
LAL	West	69.2	0.9	2.4	4.2	4.5	12.1
LAC	West	36.2	0.6	1.2	2.2	2.1	6.1
POR	West	16.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
MEM	West	13.1	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.6	1.5
DAL	West	0.8	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, January 30, 10:14 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	55.1			76.4	14.9
BOS	East	50.6			7.9	33.7
CLE	East	50.4			8.1	23.4
NYK	East	49.8			7.0	24.2
TOR	East	45.7			0.4	1.9
MIA	East	44.9			0.1	1.0
PHI	East	43.9			<0.1	0.7
ORL	East	43.5			<0.1	0.3
ATL	East	40.5				<0.1
CHI	East	37.4
CHA	East	36.8
MIL	East	32.3
IND	East	25.7
BKN	East	24.5
WAS	East	22.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.3			99.6	0.4
SAS	West	52.6			0.4	50.3
HOU	West	51.7			<0.1	30.0
DEN	West	49.2			<0.1	8.8
MIN	West	48.8			<0.1	6.6
PHX	West	47.2				2.6
GSW	West	45.7				0.9
LAL	West	44.7				0.4
LAC	West	41.0				<0.1
POR	West	39.0
MEM	West	37.4
DAL	West	32.9
UTA	West	24.9
NOP	West	24.8
SAC	West	23.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.