Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	100	29.3	32.2	18.6	11.5	91.6
CLE	East	99.9	16.3	24.8	19.7	16.5	77.2
ORL	East	99.9	13.8	21.9	19.4	16.9	72.1
NYK	East	99.5	10.6	18.5	18.2	16.7	64.1
MIL	East	94.9	3.8	8.1	11.7	11.6	35.3
MIA	East	81.6	2.3	4.9	8.4	8.5	24.0
ATL	East	55.7	0.7	1.7	3.2	3.6	9.3
IND	East	55.4	0.8	1.9	3.6	3.9	10.3
PHI	East	44.9	0.9	2.0	3.5	3.7	10.1
BKN	East	20.3	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.9	2.1
CHI	East	19.3	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.7
DET	East	13.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1
CHA	East	7.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
TOR	East	7.7	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.7
WAS	East	<0.1
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	99.9	19.7	27.6	20.2	15.5	82.9
DAL	West	98.1	10.7	19.3	18.3	17.1	65.5
HOU	West	96.4	7.4	14.4	15.6	16.0	53.5
GSW	West	90.3	5.7	11.6	13.8	13.7	44.8
LAC	West	83.2	4.4	8.9	11.7	11.7	36.8
MEM	West	81.3	4.3	8.6	11.4	11.3	35.7
DEN	West	73.7	3.1	6.4	9.1	9.2	27.8
PHX	West	59.6	1.9	4.3	6.5	6.6	19.3
MIN	West	55.2	2.3	4.6	6.9	6.7	20.4
SAS	West	21.6	0.4	0.8	1.4	1.6	4.2
LAL	West	21.0	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.6	4.1
SAC	West	19.5	0.5	1.0	1.7	1.8	4.9
POR	West	<0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	58.5			80.5	15.4
CLE	East	53.4			14.3	53.0
ORL	East	50.8			4.5	24.2
NYK	East	47.3			0.7	6.5
MIL	East	43.1			<0.1	0.8
MIA	East	39.9			<0.1	0.1
ATL	East	37.0				<0.1
IND	East	36.9				<0.1
PHI	East	35.3				<0.1
BKN	East	33.1
CHI	East	32.8				<0.1
DET	East	31.9
CHA	East	30.4
TOR	East	30.3
WAS	East	19.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	57.5			84.6	11.6
DAL	West	50.5			7.5	33.0
HOU	West	49.4			4.5	25.1
GSW	West	47.5			1.8	13.0
LAC	West	45.9			0.5	5.9
MEM	West	45.7			0.6	5.4
DEN	West	44.7			0.3	3.2
PHX	West	43.0			0.1	1.8
MIN	West	42.3			0.1	0.9
SAS	West	39.0			<0.1	0.1
LAL	West	39.0			<0.1	0.1
SAC	West	38.5			<0.1	0.1
POR	West	28.0
NOP	West	26.1
UTA	West	23.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.