Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, March 10, 10:03 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	13.7	23.2	19.2	17.9	73.9
BOS	East	100	21.1	29.2	19.9	15.1	85.2
CLE	East	99.9	16.1	25.8	19.7	17.0	78.5
NYK	East	99.9	14.6	24.3	19.4	17.3	75.7
MIA	East	90.8	2.3	5.0	9.2	8.8	25.3
TOR	East	88.6	1.1	2.8	5.9	6.0	15.9
ORL	East	81.3	1.5	3.3	6.4	6.6	17.8
PHI	East	55.4	0.7	1.6	3.5	3.6	9.4
ATL	East	37.4	0.4	1.0	2.0	2.1	5.4
CHA	East	46.3	1.2	2.4	4.8	4.3	12.7
MIL	East	0.2			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHI	East	<0.1
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.0	33.7	17.1	10.0	93.8
SAS	West	100	13.2	23.1	18.9	17.8	73.1
HOU	West	99.3	6.8	14.0	15.4	16.3	52.5
DEN	West	99.4	9.8	17.7	18.3	17.0	62.8
MIN	West	96.6	4.7	9.5	13.2	13.0	40.4
LAL	West	96.0	3.6	7.8	11.4	12.2	35.0
PHX	West	82.0	1.9	4.1	7.1	7.1	20.3
LAC	West	53.4	0.6	1.5	3.0	3.1	8.2
GSW	West	56.0	1.4	2.6	4.8	4.4	13.1
POR	West	17.3	<0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
MEM	West	<0.1
NOP	West
DAL	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, March 10, 10:03 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	57.8			88.1	10.7
BOS	East	55.1			11.1	67.8
CLE	East	52.4			0.5	8.3
NYK	East	52.1			0.4	13.2
MIA	East	46.1				<0.1
TOR	East	45.8				<0.1
ORL	East	45.2				<0.1
PHI	East	43.2
ATL	East	42.0
CHA	East	41.9
MIL	East	34.6
CHI	East	31.4
BKN	East	22.6
IND	East	20.3
WAS	East	19.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.4			94.4	5.6
SAS	West	58.9			5.6	94.2
HOU	West	50.3				0.1
DEN	West	50.0				0.1
MIN	West	49.0				<0.1
LAL	West	48.6				<0.1
PHX	West	46.1
LAC	West	43.1
GSW	West	43.0
POR	West	40.1
MEM	West	29.5
NOP	West	27.1
DAL	West	26.6
UTA	West	24.6
SAC	West	19.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.