Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, January 23, 10:14 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	14.9	23.8	19.5	16.9	75.1
BOS	East	99.9	19.5	28.1	19.8	15.5	82.9
CLE	East	99.0	13.1	21.6	19.4	16.6	70.7
NYK	East	97.4	7.5	14.2	15.8	15.2	52.7
TOR	East	90.4	2.8	6.3	9.5	10.0	28.6
PHI	East	89.2	3.3	6.8	9.8	10.1	30.0
MIA	East	80.6	2.4	5.2	8.3	8.4	24.3
ORL	East	78.5	2.6	5.5	8.2	8.7	25.0
ATL	East	33.8	0.5	1.2	2.4	2.5	6.6
CHI	East	21.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.2	2.9
MIL	East	5.4	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
CHA	East	4.5	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.8	34.3	16.2	8.8	95.1
SAS	West	99.7	10.0	19.1	17.4	17.9	64.4
HOU	West	99.3	12.6	21.3	19.0	16.9	69.8
DEN	West	97.7	7.4	14.4	15.2	15.5	52.5
MIN	West	92.0	5.3	10.0	13.4	12.3	41.0
PHX	West	91.8	3.0	6.4	9.8	10.2	29.5
LAL	West	71.4	1.2	2.7	4.8	5.2	13.9
GSW	West	72.9	2.7	5.2	8.1	7.6	23.6
POR	West	24.7	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0	2.5
LAC	West	26.0	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.4	3.8
MEM	West	23.4	0.3	0.8	1.4	1.3	3.8
DAL	West	1.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
UTA	West
SAC	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, January 23, 10:14 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	56.2			83.7	12.4
BOS	East	52.1			12.3	59.0
CLE	East	48.9			2.4	13.5
NYK	East	47.6			1.1	9.6
TOR	East	45.3			0.2	1.8
PHI	East	45.3			0.2	2.5
MIA	East	43.8			<0.1	0.7
ORL	East	43.5			<0.1	0.5
ATL	East	39.3				<0.1
CHI	East	38.0				<0.1
MIL	East	34.8
CHA	East	34.3
BKN	East	25.3
IND	East	23.8
WAS	East	20.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.8			99.9	0.1
SAS	West	53.1			0.1	53.4
HOU	West	51.5			<0.1	27.0
DEN	West	49.8			<0.1	11.7
MIN	West	47.9				3.6
PHX	West	47.6			<0.1	3.4
LAL	West	44.9				0.5
GSW	West	44.6				0.4
POR	West	40.4
LAC	West	40.2				<0.1
MEM	West	39.4
DAL	West	33.9
UTA	West	26.9
SAC	West	23.6
NOP	West	22.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.