NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, March 19, 10:03 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET | East | 100 | 12.4 | 21.9 | 18.9 | 17.9 | 71.0 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 100 | 20.7 | 29.6 | 19.7 | 15.2 | 85.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 100 | 14.6 | 24.4 | 19.5 | 17.6 | 76.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 99.9 | 15.0 | 24.9 | 19.5 | 17.3 | 76.7 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 90.7 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 18.2 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 82.3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 18.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 80.5 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 23.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 60.3 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 41.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 44.5 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 33.1 | 33.7 | 17.1 | 10.1 | 93.9 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 100 | 15.7 | 25.3 | 19.5 | 17.0 | 77.5 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 99.9 | 6.3 | 13.8 | 14.4 | 16.8 | 51.3 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 99.8 | 11.0 | 19.8 | 19.6 | 17.2 | 67.5 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 99.1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 41.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 97.5 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 35.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 83.6 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 18.7 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 52.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 41.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 26.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
NOP | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, March 19, 10:03 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.8 | 92.1 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.9 | 7.3 | 67.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.9 | 0.6 | 24.2 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.2 | <0.1 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 45.3 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 44.2 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 42.8 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 33.8 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.2 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.2 | 96.4 | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 59.9 | 3.6 | 96.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 51.4 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.2 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.9 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 41.8 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 40.7 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.4 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 28.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 28.3 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 26.8 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.2 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
BKN
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Mar 20, 2026
Ben Saraf - Mar 20, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 21, 2026
CHI
Isaac Okoro - Mar 19, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Mar 23, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 27, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
DAL
Brandon Williams - Mar 21, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 21, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
DET
GSW
Seth Curry - Mar 23, 2026
Moses Moody - Mar 25, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
LJ Cryer - Mar 20, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 25, 2026
Al Horford - Mar 23, 2026
HOU
IND
Obi Toppin - Mar 21, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Mar 23, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Mar 21, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
Micah Potter - Mar 21, 2026
LAC
Bennedict Mathurin - Mar 23, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser - Oct 1, 2026
Nicolas Batum - Mar 19, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
LAL
Maxi Kleber - Mar 19, 2026
MEM
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 20, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 20, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Mar 20, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
MIL
Myles Turner - Mar 19, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards - Mar 25, 2026
Naz Reid - Mar 20, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 19, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
Jalen Brunson - Mar 20, 2026
OKC
Jalen Williams - Mar 21, 2026
Isaiah Hartenstein - Mar 21, 2026
Luguentz Dort - Mar 21, 2026
Branden Carlson - Mar 21, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
PHI
Jabari Walker - Mar 19, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 19, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
PHX
POR
SAC
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
Devin Carter - Mar 22, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Malik Monk - Mar 19, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
SAS
Devin Vassell - Mar 19, 2026
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 20, 2026
Collin Murray-Boyles - Mar 20, 2026
UTA
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Mar 19, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
Bilal Coulibaly - Mar 19, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 21, 2026
Leaky Black - Mar 25, 2026
Alex Sarr - Mar 19, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026