Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, January 15, 10:15 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	12.5	21.3	18.8	17.4	70.0
BOS	East	99.8	18.7	27.1	19.6	15.8	81.2
NYK	East	98.7	9.2	16.6	16.9	16.2	58.9
CLE	East	97.7	12.1	19.9	19.1	15.9	66.9
TOR	East	88.0	2.7	5.8	8.8	9.5	26.8
ORL	East	86.3	3.8	7.7	10.9	10.7	33.0
PHI	East	81.0	2.3	5.0	7.8	8.3	23.4
MIA	East	79.7	2.6	5.4	8.5	8.5	24.9
ATL	East	49.2	1.2	2.5	4.5	4.4	12.6
CHI	East	8.8	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1
MIL	East	9.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.5	1.1
CHA	East	1.6	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
BKN	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.4	33.6	17.2	9.8	94.0
HOU	West	99.3	11.7	20.1	19.0	16.8	67.6
SAS	West	98.9	7.5	15.0	15.6	16.4	54.5
DEN	West	98.5	7.5	14.7	15.6	15.8	53.6
MIN	West	96.6	6.0	11.8	14.2	14.5	46.5
GSW	West	88.9	5.6	10.2	13.4	12.1	41.3
PHX	West	82.4	2.0	4.3	7.2	7.5	21.0
LAL	West	70.7	1.1	2.5	4.6	4.7	12.9
MEM	West	27.6	0.4	0.8	1.6	1.5	4.3
LAC	West	25.2	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.2	3.4
POR	West	11.7	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
DAL	West	0.2		<0.1		<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
SAC	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, January 15, 10:15 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	53.9			63.7	21.6
BOS	East	51.3			22.2	37.9
NYK	East	49.4			8.9	21.1
CLE	East	48.1			3.5	11.1
TOR	East	45.2			0.6	2.5
ORL	East	45.0			0.5	2.3
PHI	East	44.3			0.3	1.9
MIA	East	44.1			0.3	1.5
ATL	East	40.9			<0.1	0.1
CHI	East	35.6				<0.1
MIL	East	35.4
CHA	East	32.2
BKN	East	27.4
IND	East	24.6
WAS	East	20.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.2			99.7	0.3
HOU	West	52.0			0.1	31.3
SAS	West	51.8			0.1	31.1
DEN	West	51.0			0.1	20.1
MIN	West	50.1			<0.1	13.0
GSW	West	46.9			<0.1	2.4
PHX	West	46.2				1.3
LAL	West	44.9				0.6
MEM	West	39.7				<0.1
LAC	West	39.7
POR	West	38.2
DAL	West	30.6
UTA	West	27.3
SAC	West	24.9
NOP	West	23.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.