NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
A premium subscription is required to unlock all columns of data.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, April 15, 5:13 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE  | East | 100 | 25.5 | 31.5 | 19.4 | 13.0 | 89.4 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 28.0 | 32.3 | 18.6 | 11.9 | 90.9 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.6 | 23.0 | 19.4 | 17.8 | 73.7 | |||||||||||||||
IND  | East | 100 | 7.7 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 17.9 | 57.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 100 | 4.8 | 9.5 | 15.0 | 13.1 | 42.5 | |||||||||||||||
DET  | East | 100 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 80.9 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 10.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 74.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 23.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 21.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 27.9 | 31.9 | 18.3 | 12.2 | 90.2 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 100 | 5.4 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 16.5 | 47.3 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 5.7 | 13.0 | 13.8 | 16.8 | 49.3 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 5.8 | 13.2 | 13.6 | 17.1 | 49.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 100 | 6.5 | 11.9 | 17.8 | 14.2 | 50.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 100 | 6.6 | 12.0 | 17.4 | 14.7 | 50.7 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 85.9 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 39.6 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 81.7 | 2.4 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 21.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 18.4 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | 13.9 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
POR  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, April 15, 5:13 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 64.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 61.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.0 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DET | East | 44.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 41.0 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 37.0 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 30.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 24.0 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 18.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 68.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 50.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.0 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 39.0 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 36.0 | |||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 34.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 17.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Trae Young - Apr 15, 2025
Dyson Daniels - Apr 15, 2025
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
Clint Capela - Apr 18, 2025
Onyeka Okongwu - Apr 15, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - May 1, 2025
Caris LeVert - Apr 15, 2025
Jalen Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Georges Niang - Apr 15, 2025
BKN
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
Cam Thomas - Oct 1, 2025
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 1, 2025
Cameron Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Noah Clowney - Oct 1, 2025
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
Reece Beekman - Oct 1, 2025
Bojan Bogdanović - Oct 1, 2025
Ziaire Williams - Oct 1, 2025
BOS
Jrue Holiday - Apr 20, 2025
Derrick White - Apr 20, 2025
Jaylen Brown - Apr 20, 2025
Kristaps Porzingis - Apr 20, 2025
Al Horford - Apr 20, 2025
Jayson Tatum - Apr 20, 2025
CHA
LaMelo Ball - Oct 1, 2025
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Miller - Oct 1, 2025
Miles Bridges - Jul 1, 2025
CHI
Lonzo Ball - Apr 16, 2025
Josh Giddey - Apr 16, 2025
Tre Jones - Apr 16, 2025
Ayo Dosunmu - Oct 1, 2025
CLE
Darius Garland - Apr 20, 2025
Max Strus - Apr 20, 2025
Ty Jerome - Apr 20, 2025
Donovan Mitchell - Apr 20, 2025
Dean Wade - Apr 20, 2025
Isaac Okoro - Apr 20, 2025
De'Andre Hunter - Apr 20, 2025
Sam Merrill - Apr 20, 2025
Evan Mobley - Apr 20, 2025
DAL
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Oct 1, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Feb 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Apr 16, 2025
Klay Thompson - Apr 16, 2025
P.J. Washington - Apr 16, 2025
Brandon Williams - Apr 16, 2025
Anthony Davis - Apr 16, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 2, 2025
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Apr 19, 2025
Jaden Ivey - May 1, 2025
Cade Cunningham - Apr 19, 2025
Ausar Thompson - Apr 19, 2025
HOU
Jabari Smith Jr. - Apr 20, 2025
Jae'Sean Tate - Apr 20, 2025
IND
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
Bennedict Mathurin - Apr 19, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton - Apr 19, 2025
Ben Sheppard - Apr 19, 2025
Pascal Siakam - Apr 19, 2025
LAC
LAL
Rui Hachimura - Apr 19, 2025
Dorian Finney-Smith - Apr 19, 2025
Luka Doncic - Apr 19, 2025
Maxi Kleber - Apr 19, 2025
LeBron James - Apr 19, 2025
Austin Reaves - Apr 19, 2025
MEM
Luke Kennard - Apr 15, 2025
Zach Edey - Apr 15, 2025
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2025
Zyon Pullin - Jul 1, 2025
Santi Aldama - Apr 15, 2025
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Apr 15, 2025
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Apr 15, 2025
Ja Morant - Apr 15, 2025
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2025
Desmond Bane - Apr 15, 2025
MIA
Bam Adebayo - Apr 16, 2025
Nikola Jovic - Apr 16, 2025
Pelle Larsson - Apr 16, 2025
Isaiah Stevens - Apr 16, 2025
Tyler Herro - Apr 16, 2025
Andrew Wiggins - Apr 16, 2025
Dru Smith - Oct 1, 2025
Alec Burks - Apr 16, 2025
Kevin Love - Apr 16, 2025
MIL
Ryan Rollins - Apr 19, 2025
Kevin Porter Jr. - Apr 19, 2025
Jericho Sims - Apr 19, 2025
Gary Trent Jr. - Apr 19, 2025
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Apr 19, 2025
Damian Lillard - Apr 19, 2025
Bobby Portis - Apr 19, 2025
Taurean Prince - Apr 19, 2025
Brook Lopez - Apr 19, 2025
NOP
Herbert Jones - Oct 1, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Oct 1, 2025
Trey Murphy III - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Hawkins - Oct 1, 2025
Zion Williamson - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Boston - Oct 1, 2025
Karlo Matkovic - Oct 1, 2025
CJ McCollum - Oct 1, 2025
Yves Missi - Oct 1, 2025
Bruce Brown - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 1, 2025
NYK
Mitchell Robinson - Apr 19, 2025
Karl-Anthony Towns - Apr 19, 2025
OG Anunoby - Apr 19, 2025
Josh Hart - Apr 19, 2025
Jalen Brunson - Apr 19, 2025
Ariel Hukporti - May 15, 2025
OKC
Isaiah Hartenstein - Apr 20, 2025
Jalen Williams - Apr 20, 2025
Jaylin Williams - Apr 20, 2025
Luguentz Dort - Apr 20, 2025
Chet Holmgren - Apr 20, 2025
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Alex Caruso - Apr 20, 2025
Ousmane Dieng - Apr 20, 2025
Cason Wallace - Apr 20, 2025
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Apr 20, 2025
ORL
Cory Joseph - Apr 15, 2025
Franz Wagner - Apr 15, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 1, 2025
Paolo Banchero - Apr 15, 2025
Moritz Wagner - Oct 1, 2025
PHI
Jared McCain - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Maxey - Oct 1, 2025
Guerschon Yabusele - Oct 1, 2025
Kyle Lowry - Oct 1, 2025
Paul George - Oct 1, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 1, 2025
Eric Gordon - Oct 1, 2025
Alex Reese - Oct 1, 2025
Justin Edwards - Oct 1, 2025
Andre Drummond - Oct 1, 2025
PHX
Devin Booker - Oct 1, 2025
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2025
Nick Richards - Oct 1, 2025
Kevin Durant - Oct 1, 2025
Vasilije Micic - Oct 1, 2025
POR
Deandre Ayton - Oct 1, 2025
Shaedon Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
Robert Williams III - Oct 1, 2025
Anfernee Simons - Oct 1, 2025
Bryce McGowens - Oct 1, 2025
Jerami Grant - Oct 1, 2025
Scoot Henderson - Oct 1, 2025
Deni Avdija - Oct 1, 2025
SAC
Malik Monk - Apr 23, 2025
Jake LaRavia - Apr 16, 2025
SAS
Jeremy Sochan - Oct 1, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Oct 1, 2025
Riley Minix - Oct 1, 2025
Devin Vassell - Oct 1, 2025
De'Aaron Fox - Oct 1, 2025
TOR
Jared Rhoden - Oct 1, 2025
RJ Barrett - Oct 1, 2025
Gradey Dick - Oct 1, 2025
Chris Boucher - Oct 1, 2025
Garrett Temple - Oct 1, 2025
Jakob Poeltl - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Ingram - Oct 1, 2025
Ulrich Chomche - Oct 1, 2025
Ja'Kobe Walter - Oct 1, 2025
Immanuel Quickley - Oct 1, 2025
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2025
John Collins - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Clarkson - Oct 1, 2025
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
Lauri Markkanen - Oct 1, 2025
KJ Martin - Oct 1, 2025
Isaiah Collier - Oct 1, 2025
Cody Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Elijah Harkless - Oct 1, 2025
WAS
Saddiq Bey - Oct 1, 2025
Corey Kispert - Oct 1, 2025
JT Thor - Oct 1, 2025
Khris Middleton - Oct 1, 2025
Anthony Gill - Oct 1, 2025
Richaun Holmes - Oct 1, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Poole - Oct 1, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Oct 1, 2025