Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, November 21, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.8	17.2	25.6	19.5	16.1	78.4
DET	East	97.2	6.5	13.0	14.2	15.3	49.0
NYK	East	94.1	7.8	14.4	15.6	15.2	53.0
BOS	East	92.8	11.8	18.8	18.4	15.1	64.0
ORL	East	89.9	6.2	11.7	13.9	13.6	45.4
MIA	East	81.4	4.0	8.0	10.9	10.9	33.8
ATL	East	79.1	3.5	7.4	10.2	10.1	31.3
TOR	East	66.2	1.8	4.1	6.4	6.9	19.2
PHI	East	62.0	1.8	4.0	6.5	6.6	18.8
CHI	East	23.4	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.7	4.6
MIL	East	14.1	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.9	2.4
CHA	East	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.6	33.8	16.3	8.6	95.3
HOU	West	99.9	18.5	26.6	19.8	16.3	81.1
DEN	West	99.5	9.6	18.4	17.4	17.2	62.6
LAL	West	96.4	3.9	8.8	12.0	12.5	37.2
GSW	West	96.7	7.4	13.7	16.0	14.8	51.9
MIN	West	88.4	3.4	6.8	10.4	9.9	30.6
SAS	West	86.6	2.6	5.4	8.8	8.8	25.6
MEM	West	47.8	0.7	1.5	2.9	2.8	7.9
LAC	West	36.5	0.4	0.8	1.7	1.8	4.7
PHX	West	29.3	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	1.9
POR	West	15.4	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.0
DAL	West	3.5	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, November 21, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.0			57.6	21.0
DET	East	51.4			16.3	24.0
NYK	East	49.8			10.0	16.3
BOS	East	48.8			5.9	12.0
ORL	East	48.4			4.8	10.7
MIA	East	46.8			2.3	6.2
ATL	East	46.4			1.8	4.9
TOR	East	44.8			0.9	2.7
PHI	East	44.3			0.5	2.0
CHI	East	39.8			<0.1	0.1
MIL	East	38.3			<0.1	0.1
CHA	East	27.7
IND	East	25.7
BKN	East	21.7
WAS	East	16.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.0			95.4	4.5
HOU	West	58.6			4.3	77.5
DEN	West	52.5			0.2	12.3
LAL	West	48.9			<0.1	2.5
GSW	West	48.6			<0.1	2.2
MIN	West	46.0			<0.1	0.5
SAS	West	45.8			<0.1	0.5
MEM	West	39.8				<0.1
LAC	West	38.7				<0.1
PHX	West	38.3
POR	West	35.8				<0.1
DAL	West	32.0
UTA	West	24.6
NOP	West	24.4
SAC	West	24.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.