NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
A premium subscription is required to unlock all columns of data.
NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated
· The NBA Cup Knockout Rounds are an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wild card from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
BOS  | East | 60.9 | 1.6 | 63.4 | 18.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||||||||||
DET  | East | 52.4 | 11.9 | 16.0 | 25.7 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | |||||||||||
NYK  | East | 48.2 | 23.2 | 6.7 | 15.2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 3.3 | |||||||||||
PHI  | East | 45.6 | 31.8 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | |||||||||||
TOR  | East | 44.9 | 33.5 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 5.7 | |||||||||||
MIA  | East | 43.5 | 37.3 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | |||||||||||
CLE  | East | 42.3 | 41.9 | 1.5 | 5.2 | 11.6 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
ATL  | East | 41.4 | 43.4 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 11.4 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 9.4 | |||||||||||
ORL  | East | 40.5 | 43.6 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | |||||||||||
IND  | East | 38.2 | 47.2 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 12.7 | |||||||||||
CHA  | East | 31.1 | 32.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 12.5 | |||||||||||
BKN  | East | 26.5 | 17.8 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | |||||||||||
CHI  | East | 25.8 | 16.7 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 7.2 | |||||||||||
WAS  | East | 24.4 | 11.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 5.6 | |||||||||||
MIL  | East | 20.5 | 5.5 | <0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
SAS  | West | 62.1 | 3.7 | 47.8 | 20.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
HOU  | West | 56.0 | 14.9 | 15.6 | 18.8 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | |||||||||||
OKC  | West | 54.4 | 19.2 | 10.6 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | |||||||||||
LAL  | West | 53.0 | 24.8 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 | |||||||||||
MIN  | West | 51.9 | 28.6 | 7.3 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 4.2 | |||||||||||
POR  | West | 50.9 | 31.9 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | |||||||||||
DEN  | West | 47.8 | 42.0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 7.8 | |||||||||||
GSW  | West | 43.8 | 50.2 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 12.8 | |||||||||||
MEM  | West | 42.8 | 51.2 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 13.7 | |||||||||||
PHX  | West | 39.7 | 47.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 13.5 | 15.2 | |||||||||||
DAL  | West | 39.7 | 47.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 13.4 | 15.3 | |||||||||||
LAC  | West | 32.6 | 25.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 11.3 | |||||||||||
NOP  | West | 24.8 | 5.8 | <0.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3.1 | ||||||||||||
UTA  | West | 24.3 | 5.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 19.9 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | |||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| BOS | East | 99.5 | 33.8 | 30.2 | 14.3 | 10.1 | 88.3 | |||||||||||||||
| DET | East | 94.0 | 14.4 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 61.1 | |||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 87.8 | 13.1 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 55.2 | |||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 78.1 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 31.9 | |||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 78.1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 39.5 | |||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 72.4 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 29.5 | |||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 69.1 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 28.9 | |||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 63.9 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 21.7 | |||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 60.8 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 20.8 | |||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 50.2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 16.3 | |||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 21.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 9.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 8.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 2.2 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| SAS | West | 98.7 | 27.3 | 28.4 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 82.0 | |||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 93.2 | 14.3 | 19.9 | 13.8 | 12.3 | 60.3 | |||||||||||||||
| OKC | West | 91.4 | 12.1 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 54.9 | |||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 86.7 | 8.3 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 42.9 | |||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 84.3 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 41.8 | |||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 82.2 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 40.4 | |||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 71.1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 28.9 | |||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 54.9 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 49.9 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 36.7 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 33.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 13.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 1.9 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 2.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 0.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Asa Newell · Nov 20, 2026
Keshon Gilbert · Nov 20, 2026
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Dec 12, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Nov 15, 2026
BOS
Paul George · Nov 15, 2026
CHA
Brandon Miller · Nov 15, 2026
Kon Knueppel · Dec 12, 2026
Dennis Schroder · Nov 25, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Nov 16, 2026
CHI
CLE
DAL
DEN
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
DET
Isaiah Joe · Nov 17, 2026
Jalen Duren · Nov 24, 2026
GSW
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Brandon Williams · Nov 22, 2026
Stephen Curry · Dec 3, 2026
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Kristaps Porziņģis · Jan 2, 2027
HOU
Steven Adams · Nov 15, 2026
Marcus Smart · Nov 16, 2026
Clint Capela · Nov 16, 2026
Fred VanVleet · Nov 16, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal · Nov 29, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 17, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Brandon Ingram · Nov 19, 2026
LAL
Quentin Grimes · Nov 15, 2026
MEM
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Nov 21, 2026
Ty Jerome · Nov 16, 2026
Quinten Post · Nov 15, 2026
Zach Edey · Nov 15, 2026
Richie Saunders · Dec 1, 2026
MIA
Pelle Larsson · Nov 15, 2026
MIL
Kam Jones · Nov 16, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
Anthony Edwards · Dec 21, 2026
NOP
Trendon Watford · Nov 15, 2026
Trey Murphy III · Nov 15, 2026
Dejounte Murray · Nov 20, 2026
Bryce McGowens · Nov 15, 2026
OKC
Thomas Sorber · Nov 20, 2026
Ajay Mitchell · Nov 15, 2026
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
Chet Holmgren · Jan 2, 2027
Jalen Williams · Mar 2, 2027
Cason Wallace · Mar 2, 2027
Jaylin Williams · Nov 16, 2026
ORL
Noah Penda · Nov 22, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
Paolo Banchero · Nov 22, 2026
Jonathan Isaac · Nov 16, 2026
PHI
LeBron James · Nov 15, 2026
Joel Embiid · Nov 16, 2026
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
Dominick Barlow · Nov 18, 2026
Adem Bona · Nov 18, 2026
PHX
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
POR
Shaedon Sharpe · Mar 2, 2027
Chris Youngblood · Nov 16, 2026
Vit Krejci · Jan 12, 2027
Ja Morant · Dec 1, 2026
SAC
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Nov 19, 2026
TOR
Kawhi Leonard · Nov 23, 2026
Scottie Barnes · Nov 15, 2026
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Nov 15, 2026
Nate Bittle · Nov 16, 2026
UTA
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 20, 2026
Trey Alexander · Nov 16, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Dec 14, 2026
Lauri Markkanen · Jan 4, 2027
WAS
Bub Carrington · Nov 15, 2026
Justin Champagnie · Feb 25, 2027
Reece Beekman · Dec 3, 2026
Jamir Watkins · Apr 2, 2027
Tristan Vukcevic · Nov 16, 2026
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.