Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, February 2, 10:12 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	14.7	24.1	19.6	17.4	75.7
BOS	East	99.9	19.3	27.6	20.0	15.5	82.3
NYK	East	99.9	11.9	21.0	18.4	17.5	68.8
CLE	East	99.6	14.3	22.7	20.0	16.5	73.4
TOR	East	90.1	1.9	4.3	7.6	8.0	21.7
MIA	East	85.7	2.5	5.5	8.9	8.9	25.7
PHI	East	82.5	1.7	3.8	7.0	7.2	19.7
ORL	East	76.5	1.9	4.3	7.3	7.4	21.0
ATL	East	36.8	0.6	1.3	2.5	2.6	6.9
CHA	East	18.7	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.3	3.5
CHI	East	9.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1
MIL	East	0.8	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	33.7	33.8	16.7	10.0	94.1
SAS	West	99.6	9.6	17.9	17.1	17.4	62.0
HOU	West	99.5	10.5	19.3	18.1	17.2	65.2
DEN	West	97.7	6.3	12.6	14.7	15.2	48.8
MIN	West	96.4	6.4	12.5	15.1	14.5	48.5
PHX	West	90.4	3.0	6.2	9.7	10.3	29.2
LAL	West	72.2	1.2	2.8	5.1	5.0	14.1
GSW	West	78.3	3.3	6.2	9.9	8.7	28.0
LAC	West	45.2	1.0	1.8	3.1	3.1	9.1
POR	West	10.7	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4
MEM	West	8.8	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
DAL	West	1.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
NOP	West
UTA	West	<0.1
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, February 2, 10:12 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	56.5			84.3	11.1
BOS	East	51.3			5.7	37.8
NYK	East	51.1			7.0	33.7
CLE	East	50.0			2.9	15.3
TOR	East	45.5			0.1	0.9
MIA	East	44.8			<0.1	0.5
PHI	East	44.4			<0.1	0.6
ORL	East	43.5			<0.1	0.1
ATL	East	40.0				<0.1
CHA	East	37.8
CHI	East	36.7
MIL	East	32.0
IND	East	26.2
BKN	East	24.2
WAS	East	21.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.4			99.7	0.3
SAS	West	52.5			0.3	48.1
HOU	West	51.7			<0.1	29.8
DEN	West	49.7			<0.1	10.8
MIN	West	49.2			<0.1	7.9
PHX	West	47.2				2.3
LAL	West	45.1				0.4
GSW	West	45.0				0.5
LAC	West	41.7				<0.1
POR	West	37.7
MEM	West	36.1
DAL	West	32.8
NOP	West	25.3
UTA	West	24.6
SAC	West	22.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.