Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, December 20, 10:19 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.8	12.8	21.7	18.1	17.2	69.8
DET	East	99.4	8.0	15.4	15.8	16.2	55.3
BOS	East	98.9	14.5	22.6	19.6	16.2	72.9
ORL	East	97.4	8.1	14.9	15.9	15.5	54.3
CLE	East	95.1	9.5	16.3	17.8	14.8	58.4
MIA	East	82.5	3.0	6.5	9.8	9.5	28.9
PHI	East	79.7	2.3	5.1	8.0	8.3	23.7
TOR	East	70.5	1.4	3.4	6.0	6.2	17.0
ATL	East	62.0	1.8	3.6	6.2	6.3	17.8
CHI	East	8.7	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1
MIL	East	4.0	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
CHA	East	1.2	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.2		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.5	33.7	16.2	9.1	94.5
HOU	West	99.9	14.5	23.6	19.4	17.1	74.7
DEN	West	99.4	8.5	16.7	16.3	17.2	58.6
SAS	West	97.3	5.6	11.1	13.9	14.1	44.6
LAL	West	93.9	2.7	5.8	9.0	10.0	27.5
MIN	West	91.9	4.3	8.5	11.8	11.3	35.9
GSW	West	90.5	5.8	10.5	14.0	12.0	42.3
MEM	West	69.6	1.9	4.0	6.3	5.8	18.0
PHX	West	34.1	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.1	2.8
POR	West	10.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4
DAL	West	9.9	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
LAC	West	3.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, December 20, 10:19 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	53.4			48.9	23.6
DET	East	51.6			25.4	27.2
BOS	East	50.1			13.2	19.9
ORL	East	48.9			7.2	15.0
CLE	East	47.5			3.4	8.7
MIA	East	44.7			0.7	2.2
PHI	East	44.5			0.7	2.0
TOR	East	43.1			0.3	0.9
ATL	East	42.0			0.1	0.4
CHI	East	34.1
MIL	East	32.1
CHA	East	29.7
IND	East	27.1
BKN	East	26.6
WAS	East	17.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.6			99.4	0.6
HOU	West	55.5			0.4	53.8
DEN	West	53.4			0.2	28.0
SAS	West	50.8			<0.1	10.0
LAL	West	49.1			<0.1	4.0
MIN	West	48.3			<0.1	2.4
GSW	West	47.3				1.3
MEM	West	43.6				0.1
PHX	West	40.7				<0.1
POR	West	36.0
DAL	West	35.6
LAC	West	32.9
NOP	West	26.6
UTA	West	25.9
SAC	West	24.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.