Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, February 28, 10:11 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	17.3	26.2	19.9	16.7	80.2
BOS	East	99.9	20.7	29.3	19.8	15.4	85.1
CLE	East	99.9	17.0	26.4	19.9	16.9	80.2
NYK	East	99.9	13.2	22.5	19.1	17.8	72.5
TOR	East	94.1	1.5	3.7	6.8	7.3	19.4
PHI	East	85.2	1.5	3.2	6.6	6.5	17.8
ORL	East	76.7	1.4	3.1	6.0	6.1	16.6
MIA	East	72.6	1.5	3.2	6.2	6.1	16.9
CHA	East	42.7	0.6	1.5	3.2	3.2	8.5
ATL	East	22.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.0	2.4
MIL	East	6.8	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
CHI	East	<0.1
IND	East
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.9	33.6	16.0	8.5	95.0
SAS	West	100	13.3	22.3	18.5	17.5	71.6
HOU	West	99.8	9.0	17.1	17.1	17.1	60.3
DEN	West	99.6	10.6	18.9	17.9	17.0	64.4
MIN	West	97.3	4.4	9.2	13.1	12.5	39.2
LAL	West	85.8	1.4	3.4	6.0	6.5	17.3
PHX	West	81.8	1.3	3.0	5.6	5.9	15.8
GSW	West	84.1	3.9	7.5	11.3	10.1	32.8
POR	West	25.4	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	1.6
LAC	West	26.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	1.8
MEM	West	0.2	<0.1	<0.1			<0.1
DAL	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, February 28, 10:11 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	60.2			97.7	2.2
BOS	East	54.6			2.2	71.1
CLE	East	52.0			0.1	11.4
NYK	East	51.5			0.1	15.2
TOR	East	46.5				0.1
PHI	East	44.9				<0.1
ORL	East	44.0				<0.1
MIA	East	43.5
CHA	East	41.1
ATL	East	40.0
MIL	East	37.6
CHI	East	30.4
IND	East	22.0
BKN	East	21.7
WAS	East	21.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	62.3			92.5	7.5
SAS	West	57.7			7.5	88.2
HOU	West	51.7			<0.1	2.6
DEN	West	50.7			<0.1	1.5
MIN	West	48.7				0.2
LAL	West	46.2				<0.1
PHX	West	45.2
GSW	West	45.0				<0.1
POR	West	40.5
LAC	West	40.0
MEM	West	31.6
DAL	West	28.0
NOP	West	26.8
UTA	West	24.1
SAC	West	20.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.