Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, December 2, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.6	15.8	24.0	19.4	16.1	75.2
DET	East	98.6	6.4	13.1	14.4	15.2	49.1
NYK	East	98.4	9.2	16.8	17.1	16.1	59.1
ORL	East	97.8	8.1	14.8	15.9	15.6	54.4
BOS	East	93.7	10.0	16.4	18.4	14.6	59.3
MIA	East	93.5	4.6	9.2	12.5	12.8	39.2
ATL	East	89.2	3.9	7.9	11.4	11.2	34.3
TOR	East	74.4	1.8	3.9	6.9	7.0	19.7
PHI	East	34.3	0.6	1.2	2.4	2.6	6.8
MIL	East	10.8	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.6	1.7
CHI	East	9.5	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
IND	East	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.4	34.0	16.6	9.2	95.1
HOU	West	99.9	19.0	27.8	19.3	16.0	82.1
DEN	West	98.1	8.3	15.7	16.4	16.2	56.7
GSW	West	95.4	8.0	14.4	16.2	14.4	53.0
LAL	West	93.1	3.1	7.1	9.7	10.9	30.9
SAS	West	88.6	3.6	7.6	10.5	10.5	32.2
MIN	West	86.8	3.6	7.4	10.2	9.9	31.0
MEM	West	58.8	1.2	2.4	4.2	4.2	12.0
PHX	West	43.9	0.3	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.5
POR	West	19.9	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	1.6
DAL	West	9.5	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6
LAC	West	6.0	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
SAC	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, December 2, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	53.7			39.4	22.9
DET	East	51.8			19.1	20.0
NYK	East	51.1			17.6	19.0
ORL	East	50.2			12.6	16.5
BOS	East	48.3			4.1	7.5
MIA	East	48.2			4.7	8.3
ATL	East	47.3			2.2	4.5
TOR	East	44.1			0.4	1.2
PHI	East	40.1			<0.1	0.1
MIL	East	35.7				<0.1
CHI	East	35.5
IND	East	27.2
CHA	East	26.1
BKN	East	23.8
WAS	East	17.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.5			97.9	2.1
HOU	West	58.4			2.1	88.5
DEN	West	49.9			<0.1	4.9
GSW	West	48.2			<0.1	1.6
LAL	West	47.2			<0.1	1.5
SAS	West	45.9				0.7
MIN	West	45.9				0.6
MEM	West	41.7				<0.1
PHX	West	40.2				<0.1
POR	West	37.3
DAL	West	35.1
LAC	West	33.9
SAC	West	25.7
UTA	West	25.3
NOP	West	22.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.