NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 50,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, September 29, 8:18 PM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 22.3 | 29.3 | 19.4 | 14.7 | 85.7 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 99.3 | 13.1 | 21.7 | 19.1 | 16.9 | 70.8 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 99.2 | 12.1 | 21.0 | 18.4 | 17.6 | 69.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 84.9 | 4.5 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 36.6 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 79.0 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||
DET  | East | 73.5 | 2.9 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 63.8 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 60.5 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 17.1 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 45.5 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||
IND  | East | 37.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 36.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 16.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 3.3 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | 0.5 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | 0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 26.9 | 31.9 | 18.8 | 12.7 | 90.3 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.1 | 10.7 | 19.6 | 18.2 | 17.3 | 65.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 97.9 | 8.4 | 15.7 | 16.4 | 16.2 | 56.6 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 95.5 | 6.5 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 48.4 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 94.6 | 6.4 | 12.9 | 15.1 | 14.5 | 48.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 82.0 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 29.9 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 71.3 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 22.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 70.7 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | 43.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 10.7 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 30.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | 8.0 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 5.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | 1.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 1.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, September 29, 8:18 PM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 54.5 | 69.4 | 20.6 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 49.3 | 14.8 | 33.9 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 49.1 | 13.8 | 33.2 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 42.7 | 0.9 | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 41.2 | 0.3 | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 40.8 | 0.4 | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 39.6 | 0.1 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 39.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 37.5 | <0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 36.5 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 36.4 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 33.6 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 29.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 26.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 23.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 61.5 | 91.3 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.3 | 4.6 | 39.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 50.5 | 2.2 | 23.2 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 48.8 | 1.0 | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 48.4 | 0.8 | 12.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 45.0 | 0.1 | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 43.4 | <0.1 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 43.2 | <0.1 | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 39.8 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 38.4 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 34.3 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 32.8 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 30.4 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 29.8 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
BOS
Jaylen Brown - Oct 8, 2025
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 22, 2025
CLE
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
Max Strus - Dec 1, 2025
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Jan 1, 2026
GSW
HOU
Dorian Finney-Smith - Oct 21, 2025
Fred VanVleet - Apr 12, 2026
IND
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 9, 2025
MEM
MIA
NOP
Herbert Jones - Oct 4, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Jan 2, 2026
OKC
ORL
Moritz Wagner - Oct 22, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 22, 2025
PHI
POR
Robert Williams III - Oct 22, 2025
Shaedon Sharpe - Oct 8, 2025
Jerami Grant - Oct 8, 2025
Scoot Henderson - Oct 27, 2025
Damian Lillard - Apr 1, 2026
SAC
Malik Monk - Oct 8, 2025
SAS
UTA
WAS
Bilal Coulibaly - Nov 1, 2025