Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, November 22, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.8	16.6	25.4	18.9	16.5	77.4
DET	East	96.8	5.9	12.3	13.5	15.3	47.1
NYK	East	94.8	7.8	14.6	15.9	15.4	53.8
MIA	East	92.3	6.2	11.9	14.3	14.0	46.3
ORL	East	90.0	5.8	11.5	14.1	13.7	45.1
BOS	East	85.1	8.6	14.5	16.4	13.2	52.7
ATL	East	79.9	3.6	7.4	10.5	10.5	32.0
TOR	East	71.5	2.3	4.8	7.4	7.9	22.4
PHI	East	61.6	1.9	3.9	6.3	6.4	18.5
MIL	East	15.6	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.0	2.6
CHI	East	12.4	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.8	2.0
CHA	East	0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.3	33.9	16.1	8.2	95.5
HOU	West	99.9	17.6	26.4	19.7	16.3	80.0
DEN	West	99.7	10.5	19.1	18.0	17.4	65.0
LAL	West	96.7	4.3	9.5	12.2	12.9	38.9
GSW	West	95.0	6.9	12.9	15.5	13.8	49.1
SAS	West	85.4	2.6	5.5	8.5	8.4	25.0
MIN	West	86.3	3.3	6.6	10.2	9.8	29.9
MEM	West	43.0	0.6	1.5	2.5	2.7	7.3
PHX	West	35.9	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.2	3.0
LAC	West	32.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	1.5	4.0
POR	West	22.2	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.9	2.1
DAL	West	3.7	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
SAC	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, November 22, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.1			60.5	20.2
DET	East	51.0			14.2	22.7
NYK	East	49.8			9.7	17.2
MIA	East	48.9			6.2	13.7
ORL	East	48.2			4.4	11.0
BOS	East	46.5			1.8	5.4
ATL	East	46.3			1.6	4.9
TOR	East	45.2			1.2	3.3
PHI	East	43.9			0.4	1.6
MIL	East	38.2			<0.1	<0.1
CHI	East	37.6			<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	28.1
IND	East	26.2
BKN	East	23.8
WAS	East	15.4
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.4			97.5	2.3
HOU	West	57.5			2.1	68.9
DEN	West	53.4			0.4	21.9
LAL	West	49.3			<0.1	3.8
GSW	West	47.9			<0.1	2.0
SAS	West	45.7				0.6
MIN	West	45.7			<0.1	0.5
MEM	West	39.7				<0.1
PHX	West	39.5				<0.1
LAC	West	38.5				<0.1
POR	West	37.5
DAL	West	32.6
SAC	West	24.3
NOP	West	23.4
UTA	West	23.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.