Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, January 23, 10:10 AM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
CLE
East10018.927.319.915.681.7
BOS
East10024.330.419.613.487.8
NYK
East99.810.218.818.017.764.6
MIL
East96.55.811.514.314.245.8
IND
East95.64.89.913.113.241.0
ORL
East90.34.48.712.111.636.8
MIA
East72.31.93.96.86.719.3
DET
East62.50.81.73.43.89.7
ATL
East58.10.92.03.64.010.6
CHI
East14.20.10.20.50.51.3
PHI
East9.70.10.30.50.61.4
CHA
East0.3<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
TOR
East0.4<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
BKN
East0.2<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
WAS
East
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West10026.831.219.212.589.7
HOU
West99.68.816.816.717.459.8
MEM
West99.610.319.117.917.464.8
DEN
West98.46.513.714.815.850.8
LAC
West83.93.37.210.310.231.0
DAL
West80.34.58.312.010.735.5
MIN
West76.63.67.010.39.630.6
SAC
West64.12.14.57.06.920.5
GSW
West37.80.81.73.13.08.6
LAL
West31.20.30.91.51.84.5
PHX
West23.00.30.71.31.43.7
SAS
West5.5<0.10.10.20.20.5
POR
West
NOP
West
UTA
West
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, January 23, 10:10 AM
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
CLE
East60.977.222.4
BOS
East57.522.673.2
NYK
East50.00.34.1
MIL
East45.9<0.10.2
IND
East45.6<0.10.2
ORL
East43.7<0.1
MIA
East41.3<0.1
DET
East40.4
ATL
East40.0<0.1
CHI
East34.9
PHI
East33.1
CHA
East28.2
TOR
East28.0
BKN
East27.7
WAS
East18.0
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West65.299.90.1
HOU
West52.00.146.8
MEM
West51.70.134.3
DEN
West49.8<0.115.7
LAC
West45.71.5
DAL
West45.20.7
MIN
West44.50.4
SAC
West43.60.3
GSW
West41.5<0.1
LAL
West41.0<0.1
PHX
West40.0<0.1
SAS
West37.0
POR
West27.7
NOP
West26.3
UTA
West23.5
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.

Injured players and estimated return date.

ATL
Cody Zeller - Jan 25, 2025
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - Feb 20, 2025
Zaccharie Risacher - Jan 23, 2025
BKN
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
Torrey Craig - Jan 27, 2025
DAL
Luka Dončić - Jan 27, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 1, 2025
Vlatko Čančar - Feb 20, 2025
DET
Jaden Ivey - Mar 13, 2025
GSW
Draymond Green - Jan 28, 2025
Jonathan Kuminga - Feb 3, 2025
HOU
Jabari Smith Jr. - Mar 1, 2025
IND
James Wiseman - Oct 1, 2025
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
LAC
P.J. Tucker - Jul 1, 2025
LAL
Jalen Hood-Schifino - Jan 23, 2025
Christian Wood - Jan 25, 2025
Jarred Vanderbilt - Jan 25, 2025
MEM
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 27, 2025
Cam Spencer - Feb 8, 2025
MIA
Dru Smith - Oct 1, 2025
Josh Richardson - Jan 23, 2025
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo - Mar 24, 2025
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Jan 29, 2025
NOP
Herbert Jones - Mar 23, 2025
NYK
Mitchell Robinson - Feb 8, 2025
OKC
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Ajay Mitchell - Mar 23, 2025
Chet Holmgren - Feb 21, 2025
Isaiah Hartenstein - Jan 23, 2025
ORL
Goga Bitadze - Jan 23, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Jan 23, 2025
Franz Wagner - Jan 25, 2025
PHI
Jared McCain - Feb 21, 2025
Joel Embiid - Jan 28, 2025
KJ Martin - Jan 25, 2025
Kyle Lowry - Jan 24, 2025
Caleb Martin - Jan 24, 2025
POR
Matisse Thybulle - Jan 28, 2025
Donovan Clingan - Jan 23, 2025
SAS
Jeremy Sochan - Jan 23, 2025
TOR
Ochai Agbaji - Jan 23, 2025
Immanuel Quickley - Jan 23, 2025
UTA
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Clarkson - Jan 28, 2025
WAS
Saddiq Bey - Feb 4, 2025
Marvin Bagley III - Jan 23, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Jan 23, 2025