Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, February 21, 10:14 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	100	22.3	29.6	20.0	14.5	86.4
BOS	East	100	25.2	31.1	19.8	13.1	89.3
NYK	East	99.9	12.7	21.7	19.3	17.7	71.4
IND	East	99.2	7.1	14.2	16.2	15.9	53.4
MIL	East	93.2	3.5	7.1	10.5	10.6	31.7
DET	East	89.3	2.5	5.3	8.7	8.8	25.3
ORL	East	83.7	2.2	4.9	7.8	7.9	22.8
MIA	East	63.0	1.0	2.1	3.8	4.2	11.1
ATL	East	45.4	0.3	0.9	1.8	2.0	5.0
PHI	East	21.4	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.4	3.4
CHI	East	2.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.9	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
TOR	East	1.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
CHA	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	24.4	30.7	19.7	13.4	88.2
DEN	West	99.7	7.6	15.7	16.2	17.3	56.7
MEM	West	99.7	8.7	16.9	17.0	17.5	60.2
HOU	West	97.6	6.4	13.0	14.8	15.6	49.9
LAL	West	84.6	2.5	5.3	8.5	9.3	25.6
LAC	West	85.1	4.5	8.6	12.0	11.3	36.4
MIN	West	86.1	5.3	9.9	13.4	11.9	40.4
GSW	West	61.2	2.4	4.7	7.3	6.8	21.2
DAL	West	58.0	1.9	3.8	6.1	5.9	17.7
SAC	West	22.0	0.3	0.6	1.2	1.2	3.3
PHX	West	4.2	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
SAS	West	1.7	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
POR	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, February 21, 10:14 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	63.2			88.7	11.2
BOS	East	58.7			11.3	86.2
NYK	East	52.0			<0.1	2.6
IND	East	46.3				<0.1
MIL	East	43.0
DET	East	42.4
ORL	East	41.1
MIA	East	39.2
ATL	East	37.8
PHI	East	34.3
CHI	East	31.4
BKN	East	29.9
TOR	East	29.8
CHA	East	24.3
WAS	East	18.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.0			99.9	<0.1
DEN	West	51.9			<0.1	41.9
MEM	West	51.9			<0.1	38.7
HOU	West	49.6			<0.1	15.2
LAL	West	46.6				1.9
LAC	West	46.5				1.3
MIN	West	46.2				0.7
GSW	West	44.2				0.2
DAL	West	43.9				0.1
SAC	West	40.8				<0.1
PHX	West	37.9
SAS	West	36.5
POR	West	32.4
UTA	West	22.7
NOP	West	22.4
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.