Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, November 18, 10:20 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	17.7	26.5	19.5	16.3	80.0
DET	East	95.0	5.8	11.9	13.5	14.4	45.6
NYK	East	94.8	8.5	15.6	16.1	15.5	55.7
ATL	East	90.6	5.6	11.2	13.2	13.5	43.5
BOS	East	91.9	11.5	18.6	18.2	14.6	62.9
ORL	East	80.5	4.4	8.8	11.6	11.0	35.9
MIA	East	76.0	3.6	7.1	9.7	9.9	30.3
PHI	East	66.3	2.2	4.8	7.3	7.5	21.7
TOR	East	57.3	1.5	3.4	5.3	5.4	15.6
MIL	East	24.8	0.4	0.9	1.6	1.7	4.6
CHI	East	22.8	0.4	0.8	1.5	1.7	4.3
CHA	East	0.1				<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.8	33.8	15.9	8.1	95.7
HOU	West	99.9	16.9	26.2	19.8	16.6	79.5
DEN	West	99.6	10.2	19.2	17.7	17.3	64.4
GSW	West	98.3	8.4	15.5	16.6	15.7	56.1
LAL	West	97.5	4.4	9.5	12.4	13.1	39.3
MIN	West	88.5	3.0	6.3	9.7	9.6	28.6
SAS	West	80.8	1.9	4.1	6.9	6.9	19.7
LAC	West	54.9	0.9	1.9	3.4	3.4	9.6
MEM	West	32.7	0.3	0.6	1.3	1.4	3.8
POR	West	25.3	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	2.1
PHX	West	18.2	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.0
DAL	West	3.8	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
SAC	West	0.3			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, November 18, 10:20 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	55.8			68.2	17.8
DET	East	50.0			9.2	21.0
NYK	East	49.8			9.6	20.0
ATL	East	48.5			4.8	13.7
BOS	East	48.3			4.3	11.9
ORL	East	46.3			1.6	5.8
MIA	East	45.7			1.2	4.8
PHI	East	44.5			0.6	2.8
TOR	East	43.6			0.5	1.9
MIL	East	39.9			<0.1	0.2
CHI	East	39.5			<0.1	0.1
CHA	East	28.3
IND	East	24.8
BKN	East	21.4
WAS	East	16.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.0			97.2	2.6
HOU	West	57.0			2.3	65.1
DEN	West	53.1			0.4	19.9
GSW	West	50.2			<0.1	6.7
LAL	West	49.5			<0.1	4.7
MIN	West	45.9			<0.1	0.7
SAS	West	44.5				0.4
LAC	West	40.5				<0.1
MEM	West	37.9
POR	West	37.4				<0.1
PHX	West	36.5				<0.1
DAL	West	32.0
SAC	West	27.4
UTA	West	24.5
NOP	West	24.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.