Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, November 20, 10:30 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	100	29.8	32.4	18.3	11.1	91.5
CLE	East	99.9	18.3	26.0	19.8	15.9	80.0
ORL	East	99.6	11.6	19.8	18.5	17.1	67.0
NYK	East	99.2	10.8	18.9	18.2	16.8	64.7
MIL	East	85.2	2.7	6.0	9.2	9.5	27.5
MIA	East	84.2	2.7	5.6	8.7	9.0	26.0
IND	East	79.3	2.0	4.4	7.3	7.4	21.1
PHI	East	60.3	1.3	2.7	4.8	5.0	13.7
ATL	East	35.4	0.3	0.7	1.5	1.7	4.3
DET	East	18.1	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	1.4
BKN	East	18.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.6
CHI	East	13.1	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.8
CHA	East	5.3	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
TOR	East	2.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
WAS	East	<0.1
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	99.9	19.6	27.6	20.3	15.5	83.0
GSW	West	98.0	9.4	17.9	17.2	16.9	61.3
DAL	West	93.0	9.2	16.4	16.6	15.7	57.9
HOU	West	87.7	5.9	11.8	13.6	13.4	44.7
DEN	West	80.9	4.3	8.7	11.3	11.6	35.8
MIN	West	67.4	3.2	6.8	9.2	9.0	28.2
PHX	West	61.4	2.1	4.6	6.9	7.1	20.7
MEM	West	55.5	2.2	4.7	6.6	6.7	20.1
LAL	West	50.8	1.4	3.2	4.8	5.2	14.6
SAC	West	50.2	1.8	3.8	5.9	5.8	17.3
LAC	West	47.9	1.5	3.2	5.1	5.2	15.0
SAS	West	7.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
NOP	West	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
POR	West	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, November 20, 10:30 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	58.3			73.4	23.3
CLE	East	55.0			24.6	61.1
ORL	East	48.3			1.3	9.7
NYK	East	46.9			0.6	5.3
MIL	East	40.9			<0.1	0.2
MIA	East	40.7			<0.1	0.3
IND	East	40.1			<0.1	0.2
PHI	East	37.4				<0.1
ATL	East	35.1				<0.1
DET	East	32.9
BKN	East	32.9
CHI	East	32.0				<0.1
CHA	East	30.0
TOR	East	27.8
WAS	East	22.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	55.8			72.1	18.9
GSW	West	51.1			17.5	36.4
DAL	West	48.2			4.8	15.8
HOU	West	46.8			2.5	10.5
DEN	West	45.9			1.5	7.3
MIN	West	43.9			0.5	2.9
PHX	West	43.5			0.3	2.6
MEM	West	42.7			0.3	1.6
LAL	West	42.4			0.2	1.5
SAC	West	42.3			0.2	1.4
LAC	West	42.0			0.1	1.1
SAS	West	36.2			<0.1	<0.1
NOP	West	30.0
POR	West	25.3
UTA	West	23.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.