Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, November 6, 10:20 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.9	19.5	27.8	20.0	15.4	82.7
NYK	East	98.5	11.1	19.6	17.9	17.0	65.6
BOS	East	92.4	13.2	20.1	18.7	14.8	66.8
DET	East	86.8	4.8	9.6	11.8	12.1	38.4
MIA	East	77.0	4.2	8.5	10.7	10.3	33.7
PHI	East	73.1	3.0	6.6	8.9	9.1	27.6
ATL	East	66.2	2.6	5.5	7.6	7.8	23.5
ORL	East	60.7	2.7	5.3	7.5	7.6	23.1
CHI	East	56.5	1.5	3.4	5.3	5.5	15.6
MIL	East	55.3	1.5	3.3	5.2	5.4	15.5
TOR	East	29.4	0.6	1.4	2.4	2.5	6.8
IND	East	3.8	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.6
CHA	East	0.3		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	32.4	33.3	17.9	10.2	93.6
HOU	West	99.9	17.9	26.8	20.0	16.2	80.9
DEN	West	98.7	8.8	16.8	16.8	16.9	59.4
LAL	West	96.9	5.2	11.1	13.5	13.9	43.7
GSW	West	96.0	7.9	14.9	16.0	15.1	54.0
LAC	West	80.9	2.7	5.8	8.8	8.9	26.2
SAS	West	66.5	1.4	2.9	4.9	5.1	14.3
MIN	West	61.9	1.3	2.8	4.9	4.8	13.8
POR	West	38.4	0.4	1.0	1.9	2.0	5.2
MEM	West	37.9	0.5	1.3	2.2	2.4	6.4
DAL	West	16.4	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.9	2.1
SAC	West	4.4	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
PHX	West	2.0	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
NOP	West	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, November 6, 10:20 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	56.0			75.9	17.2
NYK	East	50.6			15.9	39.6
BOS	East	46.8			3.1	13.7
DET	East	46.0			2.3	10.5
MIA	East	44.1			1.0	5.6
PHI	East	43.6			0.7	4.4
ATL	East	42.6			0.4	3.0
ORL	East	42.0			0.3	2.1
CHI	East	41.7			0.3	1.7
MIL	East	41.6			0.2	1.7
TOR	East	38.6			<0.1	0.3
IND	East	32.7				<0.1
CHA	East	28.3
BKN	East	22.2
WAS	East	19.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	64.9			92.3	7.2
HOU	West	57.4			6.9	69.1
DEN	West	51.6			0.5	12.6
LAL	West	49.6			0.2	5.4
GSW	West	49.0			0.1	4.6
LAC	West	45.1			<0.1	0.7
SAS	West	43.1			<0.1	0.2
MIN	West	42.4			<0.1	0.1
POR	West	39.9			<0.1	<0.1
MEM	West	39.5				<0.1
DAL	West	36.3
SAC	West	33.3
PHX	West	31.8
NOP	West	26.7
UTA	West	23.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.