Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, January 20, 10:14 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	99.9	15.0	23.8	19.5	16.9	75.3
BOS	East	99.9	20.1	28.0	19.6	15.4	83.0
CLE	East	98.5	12.0	20.2	19.2	16.2	67.6
NYK	East	97.6	7.5	13.8	15.4	15.0	51.8
ORL	East	90.5	4.1	8.3	11.5	11.8	35.6
PHI	East	86.6	2.6	5.8	8.9	9.3	26.6
MIA	East	86.4	3.0	6.3	9.5	9.6	28.4
TOR	East	83.7	2.2	4.8	7.8	8.1	22.9
ATL	East	29.4	0.5	1.1	2.0	2.0	5.6
CHI	East	14.3	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.8
MIL	East	8.8	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9
CHA	East	4.3	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
BKN	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
IND	East	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.1	33.9	16.5	9.2	94.7
SAS	West	99.3	8.2	15.9	16.1	16.8	57.0
HOU	West	99.3	11.2	19.5	18.4	17.0	66.2
DEN	West	96.0	5.5	11.3	13.5	13.9	44.2
MIN	West	95.1	5.7	11.1	14.0	13.6	44.4
GSW	West	94.0	7.6	13.5	16.1	14.0	51.1
PHX	West	85.8	2.3	5.0	8.2	8.5	23.9
LAL	West	59.3	0.7	1.6	3.3	3.4	9.0
LAC	West	26.6	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.2	3.7
MEM	West	26.7	0.4	0.8	1.5	1.5	4.3
POR	West	17.7	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.5	1.4
DAL	West	0.3			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
UTA	West
SAC	West
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, January 20, 10:14 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	55.6			81.4	14.3
BOS	East	51.9			14.8	59.1
CLE	East	47.9			1.8	10.2
NYK	East	47.4			1.5	10.3
ORL	East	45.0			0.2	2.1
PHI	East	44.4			0.1	1.9
MIA	East	44.3			0.1	1.3
TOR	East	43.6			0.1	0.7
ATL	East	38.3				<0.1
CHI	East	36.3
MIL	East	35.1				<0.1
CHA	East	33.5
BKN	East	26.6
IND	East	24.1
WAS	East	20.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.6			99.8	0.2
SAS	West	52.7			0.1	42.0
HOU	West	52.1			<0.1	31.3
DEN	West	49.7			<0.1	9.9
MIN	West	49.6			<0.1	8.8
GSW	West	48.5				5.4
PHX	West	47.3				2.1
LAL	West	44.2				0.2
LAC	West	40.6				<0.1
MEM	West	40.2				<0.1
POR	West	39.9
DAL	West	32.5
UTA	West	25.9
SAC	West	24.5
NOP	West	22.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.