Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, December 5, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	99.4	14.8	23.1	19.5	15.9	73.3
NYK	East	98.8	9.9	17.8	17.0	16.3	61.1
DET	East	98.0	6.1	12.4	13.9	14.9	47.3
BOS	East	97.8	13.9	21.1	19.6	15.8	70.3
ORL	East	97.3	7.8	14.5	15.8	15.3	53.4
MIA	East	90.8	4.0	8.2	11.7	11.8	35.8
ATL	East	81.3	2.9	5.9	9.5	9.2	27.6
TOR	East	74.9	1.7	3.8	6.7	7.2	19.4
PHI	East	43.1	0.9	1.8	3.3	3.4	9.2
MIL	East	10.8	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	1.6
CHI	East	7.6	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.0
IND	East	0.2	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East	0.1		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	34.6	34.1	16.8	9.2	94.7
HOU	West	100	18.9	27.8	19.7	15.9	82.4
DEN	West	97.7	7.8	15.1	16.1	16.0	55.0
LAL	West	95.0	3.7	8.4	10.9	12.4	35.3
SAS	West	95.1	5.1	10.5	13.3	13.3	42.2
MIN	West	87.3	3.7	7.5	10.7	10.6	32.5
GSW	West	88.4	5.5	9.9	13.2	11.4	39.9
MEM	West	50.3	1.0	1.9	3.4	3.2	9.5
PHX	West	40.7	0.3	0.8	1.6	1.7	4.4
POR	West	24.5	0.2	0.5	0.8	1.0	2.5
DAL	West	11.3	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.9
LAC	West	9.5	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
UTA	West	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
NOP	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, December 5, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	52.5			30.3	22.3
NYK	East	51.1			22.0	20.1
DET	East	51.0			17.1	17.4
BOS	East	50.3			13.6	15.3
ORL	East	49.5			11.9	14.6
MIA	East	47.0			3.4	6.1
ATL	East	45.5			1.0	2.4
TOR	East	44.1			0.6	1.5
PHI	East	41.1			<0.1	0.2
MIL	East	35.3
CHI	East	34.5
IND	East	26.7
CHA	East	25.8
BKN	East	24.2
WAS	East	16.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.7			97.9	2.1
HOU	West	58.5			2.1	87.6
DEN	West	50.0			<0.1	4.8
LAL	West	48.2			<0.1	2.2
SAS	West	48.2			<0.1	2.2
MIN	West	46.5				0.7
GSW	West	46.3				0.4
MEM	West	41.3				<0.1
PHX	West	40.3				<0.1
POR	West	38.6				<0.1
DAL	West	36.2
LAC	West	35.7
UTA	West	26.3
SAC	West	25.3
NOP	West	22.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.