NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Friday, February 13, 10:12 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 18.1 | 27.2 | 20.3 | 16.0 | 81.7 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 99.9 | 20.1 | 28.3 | 19.9 | 15.5 | 83.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 18.4 | 26.9 | 20.3 | 16.1 | 81.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 99.9 | 13.8 | 23.2 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 73.9 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 92.4 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 17.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 83.5 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 21.5 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 75.4 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 16.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 74.1 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 44.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 22.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | 7.3 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | 0.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 34.4 | 33.9 | 16.7 | 9.3 | 94.4 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 99.9 | 11.2 | 20.3 | 18.1 | 17.9 | 67.4 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.3 | 8.9 | 16.7 | 17.1 | 16.9 | 59.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 98.2 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 15.5 | 15.8 | 52.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 96.2 | 6.7 | 12.2 | 15.3 | 13.9 | 47.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 88.0 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 25.5 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 85.8 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 80.4 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 30.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 27.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 23.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | 1.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Friday, February 13, 10:12 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.7 | 92.5 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 53.1 | 3.7 | 47.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 52.3 | 3.0 | 25.5 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.1 | 0.8 | 20.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.7 | <0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.2 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 43.4 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 40.6 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 39.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 36.5 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.4 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 20.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 61.9 | 96.8 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 55.3 | 3.2 | 82.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.7 | <0.1 | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 49.7 | <0.1 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.7 | <0.1 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.5 | <0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 46.5 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 44.8 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 40.3 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 40.1 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 33.5 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 30.3 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 25.9 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 25.3 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 20.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Feb 19, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
BKN
BOS
Jayson Tatum - Mar 4, 2026
CHA
CHI
Zach Collins - Feb 19, 2026
Josh Giddey - Feb 19, 2026
Tre Jones - Feb 19, 2026
Jalen Smith - Feb 19, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Feb 19, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Feb 20, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Caleb Martin - Feb 20, 2026
Cooper Flagg - Feb 20, 2026
DEN
Spencer Jones - Feb 19, 2026
Jalen Pickett - Feb 19, 2026
Tamar Bates - Apr 1, 2026
Aaron Gordon - Feb 27, 2026
Peyton Watson - Mar 9, 2026
DET
Ronald Holland II - Feb 19, 2026
GSW
Will Richard - Feb 19, 2026
Kristaps Porzingis - Feb 19, 2026
Seth Curry - Feb 19, 2026
Stephen Curry - Feb 19, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
HOU
IND
Andrew Nembhard - Feb 19, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Feb 15, 2026
Obi Toppin - Feb 19, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Ivica Zubac - Feb 19, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Feb 19, 2026
T.J. McConnell - Feb 19, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
LAC
LAL
Deandre Ayton - Feb 20, 2026
Luka Doncic - Feb 15, 2026
MEM
Ja Morant - Feb 20, 2026
Cedric Coward - Feb 13, 2026
Santi Aldama - Feb 20, 2026
Walter Clayton Jr. - Feb 20, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Feb 20, 2026
Zach Edey - Mar 4, 2026
MIA
Pelle Larsson - Feb 20, 2026
Andrew Wiggins - Feb 20, 2026
Tyler Herro - Feb 20, 2026
Norman Powell - Feb 15, 2026
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
MIL
Taurean Prince - Mar 2, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Feb 20, 2026
Ryan Rollins - Feb 20, 2026
Myles Turner - Feb 20, 2026
MIN
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Feb 20, 2026
NOP
Yves Missi - Feb 20, 2026
Micah Peavy - Feb 20, 2026
Dejounte Murray - Feb 20, 2026
Trey Murphy III - Feb 20, 2026
NYK
OG Anunoby - Feb 19, 2026
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
OKC
Jalen Williams - Feb 20, 2026
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Feb 20, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
Branden Carlson - Feb 20, 2026
Isaiah Hartenstein - Feb 20, 2026
Ajay Mitchell - Feb 20, 2026
ORL
Colin Castleton - Feb 19, 2026
Jett Howard - Feb 19, 2026
PHI
PHX
Grayson Allen - Feb 19, 2026
Isaiah Livers - Feb 19, 2026
Jalen Green - Feb 19, 2026
Cole Anthony - Feb 19, 2026
Devin Booker - Feb 15, 2026
POR
Shaedon Sharpe - Feb 20, 2026
Kris Murray - Feb 20, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Deni Avdija - Feb 15, 2026
Robert Williams III - Feb 20, 2026
Matisse Thybulle - Feb 20, 2026
SAC
Malik Monk - Feb 19, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Feb 19, 2026
Zach LaVine - Feb 19, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Feb 19, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Feb 19, 2026
Keegan Murray - Feb 19, 2026
SAS
Lindy Waters III - Feb 19, 2026
David Jones Garcia - Jul 2, 2026
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Feb 19, 2026
Collin Murray-Boyles - Feb 13, 2026
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Feb 20, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Feb 20, 2026
Keyonte George - Feb 20, 2026
WAS
Anthony Davis - Oct 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Feb 28, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Trae Young - Feb 19, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic - Feb 19, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Feb 28, 2026