NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Wednesday, February 4, 10:12 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET | East | 100 | 16.3 | 25.6 | 19.6 | 16.6 | 78.1 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 99.9 | 19.6 | 28.0 | 20.0 | 15.7 | 83.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 99.8 | 12.1 | 20.7 | 18.7 | 17.3 | 68.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 99.9 | 17.5 | 26.0 | 20.0 | 16.1 | 79.6 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 90.0 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 19.5 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 87.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 21.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 80.5 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 20.5 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 68.9 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 46.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 22.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 4.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 1.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 36.7 | 34.4 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 95.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 99.7 | 9.7 | 18.5 | 17.4 | 17.7 | 63.4 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 99.7 | 11.3 | 19.9 | 18.4 | 17.3 | 66.9 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 98.0 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 50.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 95.4 | 5.5 | 10.7 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 94.8 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 34.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 81.7 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 17.3 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 77.0 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 24.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 30.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 13.6 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 8.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 1.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
UTA | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Wednesday, February 4, 10:12 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.6 | 89.4 | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 51.8 | 3.7 | 40.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.1 | 4.2 | 30.6 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 50.8 | 2.7 | 19.6 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.5 | <0.1 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 45.1 | <0.1 | 0.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.0 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 42.9 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 40.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 38.3 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 35.4 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.6 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 25.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 23.9 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 21.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 63.8 | 99.8 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 52.7 | 0.2 | 48.0 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 52.3 | 0.1 | 34.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 49.6 | <0.1 | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.5 | <0.1 | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 48.0 | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 45.6 | 0.6 | ||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 44.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 39.7 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 37.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 35.8 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 32.6 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 26.2 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 25.3 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 22.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Kristaps Porzingis - Feb 5, 2026
Onyeka Okongwu - Feb 5, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
BKN
Haywood Highsmith - Feb 9, 2026
BOS
CHA
KJ Simpson - Feb 7, 2026
Mason Plumlee - Feb 19, 2026
CHI
Josh Giddey - Feb 5, 2026
Mike Conley - Feb 5, 2026
Zach Collins - Feb 19, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Feb 5, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Feb 5, 2026
Julian Phillips - Feb 5, 2026
CLE
James Harden - Feb 4, 2026
Keon Ellis - Feb 4, 2026
Evan Mobley - Feb 11, 2026
Dennis Schroder - Feb 4, 2026
Max Strus - Feb 19, 2026
DAL
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
P.J. Washington - Feb 5, 2026
Brandon Williams - Feb 5, 2026
Anthony Davis - Mar 1, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
D'Angelo Russell - Feb 5, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Feb 20, 2026
DEN
DET
GSW
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Stephen Curry - Feb 5, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Feb 9, 2026
Seth Curry - Feb 19, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Kevin Durant - Feb 4, 2026
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Dorian Finney-Smith - Feb 5, 2026
IND
Bennedict Mathurin - Feb 6, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Feb 6, 2026
Obi Toppin - Feb 19, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Feb 6, 2026
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Aaron Nesmith - Feb 6, 2026
T.J. McConnell - Feb 6, 2026
Micah Potter - Feb 6, 2026
LAC
Derrick Jones Jr. - Feb 4, 2026
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2026
TyTy Washington Jr. - Feb 6, 2026
Darius Garland - Feb 4, 2026
LAL
Adou Thiero - Feb 5, 2026
MEM
Kyle Anderson - Feb 4, 2026
Santi Aldama - Feb 4, 2026
Georges Niang - Feb 9, 2026
Zach Edey - Mar 4, 2026
Ja Morant - Feb 20, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Feb 20, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Feb 4, 2026
MIA
Andrew Wiggins - Feb 6, 2026
Terry Rozier - Feb 20, 2026
Tyler Herro - Feb 6, 2026
Norman Powell - Feb 6, 2026
MIL
Taurean Prince - Feb 20, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Feb 20, 2026
Bobby Portis - Feb 4, 2026
Gary Harris - Feb 4, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Feb 4, 2026
MIN
Terrence Shannon Jr. - Feb 6, 2026
NOP
Dejounte Murray - Feb 20, 2026
NYK
OKC
Nikola Topic - Feb 20, 2026
Ajay Mitchell - Feb 4, 2026
Jalen Williams - Feb 7, 2026
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
Colin Castleton - Feb 5, 2026
Franz Wagner - Feb 5, 2026
PHI
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
Joel Embiid - Feb 5, 2026
PHX
Devin Booker - Feb 5, 2026
POR
Scoot Henderson - Feb 6, 2026
Kris Murray - Feb 6, 2026
Damian Lillard - Oct 1, 2026
Deni Avdija - Feb 6, 2026
Matisse Thybulle - Feb 9, 2026
SAC
Domantas Sabonis - Feb 4, 2026
Keegan Murray - Feb 19, 2026
SAS
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Feb 19, 2026
Jakob Poeltl - Feb 8, 2026
UTA
Kevin Love - Feb 5, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Feb 5, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Keyonte George - Feb 5, 2026
Jock Landale - Feb 5, 2026
John Konchar - Feb 5, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Feb 5, 2026
Elijah Harkless - Feb 12, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Feb 5, 2026
WAS
Tristan Vukcevic - Feb 5, 2026
Trae Young - Feb 19, 2026
Tre Johnson - Feb 5, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026