Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, December 12, 10:17 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.6	12.0	20.3	17.9	17.0	67.1
CLE	East	99.5	15.2	23.1	19.3	16.2	73.9
DET	East	98.9	6.3	12.5	14.1	14.9	47.8
BOS	East	99.0	14.8	22.7	19.5	15.8	72.8
ORL	East	98.3	8.1	15.0	16.1	15.6	54.9
ATL	East	86.0	3.1	6.5	10.0	9.8	29.4
MIA	East	83.9	2.7	5.7	9.3	9.2	26.8
PHI	East	61.6	1.2	2.6	4.9	5.1	13.7
TOR	East	56.2	1.0	2.1	4.1	4.2	11.4
MIL	East	11.5	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	1.6
CHI	East	3.6	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4
IND	East	1.5	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	<0.1	0.2
CHA	East	0.3	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	0.1				<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	37.1	33.9	15.8	8.3	95.1
HOU	West	99.9	17.0	26.2	19.3	16.7	79.2
DEN	West	99.1	8.5	16.3	16.7	16.6	58.1
SAS	West	95.5	4.8	9.8	12.7	12.7	39.9
GSW	West	96.5	8.7	15.4	17.1	14.8	56.1
LAL	West	91.2	2.2	5.4	8.1	9.2	24.9
MIN	West	84.8	2.8	5.8	8.9	8.7	26.2
MEM	West	68.1	1.6	3.4	5.8	5.4	16.1
PHX	West	32.8	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.9	2.4
DAL	West	15.3	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.1
LAC	West	9.8	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
POR	West	6.9	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
SAC	West	<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, December 12, 10:17 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	52.8			32.0	22.3
CLE	East	52.3			24.3	23.3
DET	East	51.3			16.7	17.9
BOS	East	50.9			14.9	17.5
ORL	East	50.2			10.3	14.4
ATL	East	45.7			0.9	2.4
MIA	East	45.2			0.6	1.7
PHI	East	42.2			0.1	0.2
TOR	East	41.6			0.1	0.2
MIL	East	34.5
CHI	East	31.6
IND	East	29.2
CHA	East	26.8
BKN	East	25.4
WAS	East	15.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	68.6			99.1	0.9
HOU	West	57.4			0.8	78.9
DEN	West	51.7			<0.1	11.5
SAS	West	49.1			<0.1	3.6
GSW	West	49.1			<0.1	2.9
LAL	West	47.6				1.5
MIN	West	46.1				0.6
MEM	West	43.0				0.1
PHX	West	40.0				<0.1
DAL	West	36.8
LAC	West	35.6
POR	West	35.0
SAC	West	25.5
UTA	West	24.6
NOP	West	24.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.