NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, October 29, 9:28 AM
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
BOS | East | 99.9 | 27.2 | 30.9 | 18.7 | 12.4 | 89.2 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 99.7 | 13.0 | 21.2 | 18.9 | 16.9 | 70.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 98.0 | 8.6 | 15.5 | 16.8 | 16.2 | 57.0 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 96.8 | 6.6 | 12.9 | 15.2 | 14.9 | 49.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 95.8 | 6.0 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 14.1 | 45.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 93.6 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 40.2 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 83.4 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 27.1 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 61.8 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 13.7 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 34.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 15.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 6.6 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 4.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 4.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 3.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 1.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 99.9 | 17.2 | 25.8 | 19.6 | 16.7 | 79.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 93.6 | 8.7 | 15.9 | 16.4 | 15.7 | 56.8 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 92.5 | 7.3 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 52.7 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 86.0 | 5.5 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 42.8 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 83.9 | 5.8 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 43.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 72.5 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 31.7 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 63.5 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 63.4 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 23.5 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 44.7 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 34.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 22.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 0.8 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
UTA | West | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
POR | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals |
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, October 29, 9:28 AM
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOS | East | 57.1 | 82.6 | 12.9 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 50.5 | 11.5 | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 46.9 | 2.5 | 15.5 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 45.8 | 1.6 | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 45.1 | 1.0 | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 44.1 | 0.6 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 41.4 | 0.2 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 38.0 | <0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 35.0 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 29.9 | |||||||||||||||||
DET | East | 28.9 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 28.6 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 28.6 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 26.4 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 56.2 | 77.2 | 14.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.9 | 7.6 | 22.5 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 48.5 | 6.3 | 21.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.9 | 3.2 | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 46.5 | 2.5 | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 44.8 | 1.2 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 43.7 | 0.7 | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 43.7 | 0.6 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 41.6 | 0.2 | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 41.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 40.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 38.8 | <0.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 31.2 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 25.4 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 23.5 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Kobe Bufkin - Nov 4, 2024
Onyeka Okongwu - Oct 30, 2024
Dominick Barlow - Oct 30, 2024
Bogdan Bogdanović - Oct 30, 2024
Cody Zeller - Oct 30, 2024
Seth Lundy - Oct 30, 2024
BKN
BOS
Kristaps Porzingis - Dec 2, 2024
Sam Hauser - Oct 28, 2024
CLE
Emoni Bates - Dec 2, 2024
Max Strus - Nov 30, 2024
DAL
Danté Exum - Jan 9, 2025
Maxi Kleber - Oct 29, 2024
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 1, 2025
DET
Ausar Thompson - Oct 29, 2024
GSW
Stephen Curry - Nov 1, 2024
IND
James Wiseman - Oct 1, 2025
LAC
Kawhi Leonard - Nov 5, 2024
Mo Bamba - Oct 30, 2024
LAL
MEM
Luke Kennard - Oct 29, 2024
Vince Williams Jr. - Nov 4, 2024
GG Jackson II - Dec 5, 2024
Cam Spencer - Nov 4, 2024
MIA
Josh Richardson - Oct 25, 2024
Kevin Love - Oct 30, 2024
MIL
Khris Middleton - Oct 29, 2024
NOP
Trey Murphy III - Oct 30, 2024
Dejounte Murray - Dec 1, 2024
NYK
Mitchell Robinson - Jan 1, 2025
Precious Achiuwa - Nov 10, 2024
OKC
Isaiah Hartenstein - Nov 21, 2024
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Jaylin Williams - Oct 30, 2024
Kenrich Williams - Oct 30, 2024
PHI
Paul George - Oct 30, 2024
Joel Embiid - Oct 30, 2024
PHX
Josh Okogie - Oct 31, 2024
POR
SAC
Devin Carter - Jan 10, 2025
Orlando Robinson - Oct 29, 2024
SAS
Tre Jones - Nov 11, 2024
Devin Vassell - Nov 2, 2024
TOR
Bruce Brown - Nov 1, 2024
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 30, 2024
Immanuel Quickley - Oct 30, 2024
Ja'Kobe Walter - Oct 31, 2024
UTA
Johnny Juzang - Oct 29, 2024
Isaiah Collier - Oct 29, 2024
WAS
Malcolm Brogdon - Nov 10, 2024
Saddiq Bey - Dec 10, 2024