Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	100	28.9	32.3	18.8	11.6	91.6
BOS	East	100	30.6	33.3	18.5	10.6	93.1
NYK	East	100	9.4	18.4	17.8	18.0	63.7
IND	East	99.9	6.7	13.4	16.7	15.7	52.5
MIL	East	99.8	4.7	10.2	13.7	14.4	43.1
DET	East	99.5	4.5	9.0	13.9	12.7	40.1
ORL	East	69.8	0.4	1.0	2.3	2.6	6.4
ATL	East	65.7	0.3	0.7	1.6	1.9	4.4
MIA	East	40.0	0.2	0.6	1.3	1.5	3.6
CHI	East	23.9	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.7	1.6
TOR	East	1.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
PHI	East	0.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	<0.1		<0.1		<0.1	<0.1
CHA	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	24.2	30.2	19.2	13.5	87.2
DEN	West	99.1	5.3	11.7	13.6	15.4	46.0
HOU	West	98.7	5.2	11.4	13.8	15.0	45.3
MEM	West	98.8	6.3	13.0	15.3	16.0	50.6
LAL	West	96.4	4.0	8.8	12.1	13.2	38.1
GSW	West	94.6	7.2	13.0	16.6	14.3	51.0
MIN	West	94.5	7.0	12.9	16.3	14.0	50.2
LAC	West	82.9	3.5	6.7	10.3	9.0	29.6
SAC	West	20.3	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.6	1.4
DAL	West	9.0	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
PHX	West	5.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
POR	West	0.4			<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
SAS	West	0.1
NOP	West
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	66.3			99.7	0.3
BOS	East	59.6			0.3	99.6
NYK	East	51.6				<0.1
IND	East	45.9
MIL	East	45.5
DET	East	44.4
ORL	East	38.6
ATL	East	38.6
MIA	East	36.4
CHI	East	34.6
TOR	East	30.7
PHI	East	29.0
BKN	East	28.2
CHA	East	21.7
WAS	East	21.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	66.9			100
DEN	West	51.3				34.2
HOU	West	50.8				29.5
MEM	West	50.7				19.2
LAL	West	49.4				10.6
GSW	West	48.7				5.0
MIN	West	48.6				1.5
LAC	West	46.0				0.1
SAC	West	40.6
DAL	West	38.2
PHX	West	36.8
POR	West	34.5
SAS	West	33.2
NOP	West	22.7
UTA	West	19.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.