Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, February 12, 10:12 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	18.1	27.1	20.0	16.2	81.4
BOS	East	99.9	20.0	28.5	20.0	15.5	84.0
CLE	East	99.9	18.5	27.1	19.9	16.0	81.6
NYK	East	99.9	13.5	23.1	19.4	17.5	73.4
TOR	East	92.6	1.5	3.4	6.6	6.9	18.4
MIA	East	83.0	1.8	4.0	7.6	7.3	20.7
ORL	East	75.9	1.4	3.2	6.0	6.1	16.6
PHI	East	73.8	0.9	2.0	4.3	4.7	12.0
CHA	East	46.4	0.7	1.6	3.2	3.3	8.8
ATL	East	25.1	0.2	0.4	1.0	1.2	2.9
MIL	East	3.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
CHI	East	0.2	<0.1			<0.1	<0.1
IND	East
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.8	34.1	15.8	8.4	95.1
SAS	West	99.9	11.4	20.3	17.8	17.8	67.4
HOU	West	99.4	9.2	16.9	17.0	16.6	59.7
DEN	West	98.4	7.1	13.7	15.3	15.8	51.9
MIN	West	96.7	6.6	12.5	15.3	14.4	48.8
PHX	West	89.4	2.5	5.5	8.7	9.0	25.6
LAL	West	81.6	1.4	3.2	5.6	6.1	16.2
GSW	West	82.3	3.9	7.3	11.0	9.8	32.0
LAC	West	29.5	0.2	0.4	0.8	0.9	2.3
POR	West	21.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	1.0
MEM	West	1.4		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
DAL	West	0.2	<0.1				<0.1
UTA	West	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, February 12, 10:12 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	58.7			92.5	6.0
BOS	East	53.2			3.8	49.4
CLE	East	52.3			3.0	25.0
NYK	East	51.0			0.8	19.4
TOR	East	45.6			<0.1	0.2
MIA	East	44.1				<0.1
ORL	East	43.4				<0.1
PHI	East	43.3				<0.1
CHA	East	40.6
ATL	East	39.1
MIL	East	34.9
CHI	East	32.4
IND	East	26.0
BKN	East	23.3
WAS	East	20.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	62.9			98.4	1.6
SAS	West	55.4			1.6	85.0
HOU	West	50.8			<0.1	7.2
DEN	West	49.6			<0.1	3.9
MIN	West	48.7				1.8
PHX	West	46.6				0.4
LAL	West	45.7				0.1
GSW	West	44.8				0.1
LAC	West	40.4
POR	West	39.3
MEM	West	33.4
DAL	West	30.9
UTA	West	27.3
NOP	West	25.2
SAC	West	20.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.