Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Friday, March 27, 10:01 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	14.2	23.8	19.1	17.8	74.9
BOS	East	100	19.2	28.8	19.7	15.8	83.5
NYK	East	100	13.8	23.8	18.8	17.9	74.4
CLE	East	99.9	15.2	25.0	19.2	17.4	76.8
TOR	East	78.3	1.0	2.4	5.0	5.0	13.4
ATL	East	76.5	1.1	2.4	4.9	5.1	13.4
MIA	East	66.0	1.8	3.7	7.2	6.7	19.4
PHI	East	60.3	0.9	2.1	4.4	4.4	11.8
CHA	East	62.4	1.8	3.6	6.9	6.3	18.7
ORL	East	56.4	1.2	2.7	4.9	5.1	13.8
MIL	East
CHI	East
BKN	East
WAS	East
IND	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.0	34.7	16.5	9.0	95.2
SAS	West	100	17.6	27.3	19.9	16.5	81.3
LAL	West	100	7.1	15.6	15.4	17.9	56.0
DEN	West	100	10.3	19.3	18.5	18.2	66.3
MIN	West	99.8	4.2	8.6	13.7	12.6	39.1
HOU	West	99.9	4.1	8.2	13.5	12.4	38.2
PHX	West	80.5	0.9	2.0	4.5	4.4	11.8
LAC	West	63.4	0.7	1.5	3.1	3.3	8.5
POR	West	30.8	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.8
GSW	West	25.6	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.7	1.8
NOP	West
MEM	West
DAL	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Friday, March 27, 10:01 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	58.2			97.7	2.2
BOS	East	54.7			2.2	72.5
NYK	East	52.8			0.1	24.3
CLE	East	51.5			<0.1	0.9
TOR	East	45.2
ATL	East	45.2
MIA	East	44.5
PHI	East	44.5
CHA	East	44.1
ORL	East	44.1
MIL	East	32.9
CHI	East	32.3
BKN	East	19.7
WAS	East	19.5
IND	East	18.8
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.8			89.1	10.9
SAS	West	61.1			10.9	89.1
LAL	West	52.6
DEN	West	51.5
MIN	West	49.8
HOU	West	49.4
PHX	West	45.0
LAC	West	42.5
POR	West	41.2
GSW	West	39.9
NOP	West	28.4
MEM	West	27.1
DAL	West	25.9
UTA	West	22.4
SAC	West	21.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.