Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Thursday, March 5, 10:09 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	16.8	26.1	19.2	16.9	78.9
BOS	East	100	21.3	29.2	19.8	15.1	85.4
CLE	East	99.9	17.0	26.7	19.9	16.6	80.2
NYK	East	99.9	15.1	24.6	19.6	17.5	76.8
TOR	East	89.9	1.2	2.7	5.5	5.8	15.2
MIA	East	76.9	1.6	3.6	6.8	6.7	18.7
PHI	East	68.4	0.8	1.8	3.8	4.0	10.4
ORL	East	65.7	1.1	2.4	5.0	4.8	13.3
CHA	East	66.4	1.4	3.2	6.2	6.0	16.9
ATL	East	32.1	0.3	0.7	1.5	1.7	4.2
MIL	East	0.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
CHI	East	<0.1
BKN	East
IND	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	35.2	34.0	16.4	9.1	94.7
SAS	West	100	12.8	22.8	18.6	17.8	72.0
HOU	West	99.8	8.5	16.3	16.8	16.8	58.5
DEN	West	99.5	10.4	18.7	18.5	17.1	64.6
MIN	West	98.4	5.3	10.7	14.1	14.1	44.2
LAL	West	93.3	2.4	5.1	8.9	9.3	25.7
PHX	West	81.5	1.6	3.6	6.2	6.5	17.8
GSW	West	62.0	1.6	3.2	5.7	5.3	15.8
LAC	West	45.3	0.5	1.0	2.1	2.2	5.8
POR	West	20.2	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.9
MEM	West	<0.1
DAL	West
NOP	West
UTA	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Thursday, March 5, 10:09 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	60.2			98.7	1.2
BOS	East	54.3			1.1	58.1
CLE	East	52.6			0.1	15.7
NYK	East	52.5			0.1	25.0
TOR	East	45.9				<0.1
MIA	East	44.5
PHI	East	44.0
ORL	East	43.7
CHA	East	43.3
ATL	East	41.4
MIL	East	35.4
CHI	East	31.3
BKN	East	21.5
IND	East	20.9
WAS	East	20.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.0			97.1	2.9
SAS	West	57.4			2.9	93.5
HOU	West	51.5				2.1
DEN	West	50.4				1.1
MIN	West	49.6				0.4
LAL	West	47.6				<0.1
PHX	West	45.6				<0.1
GSW	West	42.9
LAC	West	41.9
POR	West	39.8
MEM	West	30.9
DAL	West	27.5
NOP	West	26.7
UTA	West	23.5
SAC	West	19.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.