NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Thursday, March 26, 10:01 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 13.8 | 23.9 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 74.7 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 20.3 | 28.9 | 19.6 | 15.6 | 84.3 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.9 | 23.8 | 19.0 | 17.8 | 74.5 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 15.7 | 25.6 | 19.4 | 17.0 | 77.8 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 81.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 13.9 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 79.2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 14.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 64.4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 68.8 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 20.4 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 55.6 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 50.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 34.6 | 34.5 | 16.8 | 9.2 | 95.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 17.6 | 27.4 | 19.7 | 16.8 | 81.5 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 100 | 7.2 | 15.5 | 15.6 | 17.8 | 56.0 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 100 | 10.4 | 19.6 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 66.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 99.8 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 38.9 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.8 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 38.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 80.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 63.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 30.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 26.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Thursday, March 26, 10:01 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 57.9 | 95.8 | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.8 | 3.8 | 64.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 53.3 | 0.4 | 30.8 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.5 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 45.3 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 45.2 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 44.5 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 43.9 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 43.4 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 32.9 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.5 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.4 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 18.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 63.8 | 89.4 | 10.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 61.1 | 10.6 | 89.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 52.6 | |||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.5 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 49.9 | |||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.4 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 45.0 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.5 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 41.2 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 40.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 28.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 27.0 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 25.9 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 22.4 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
BKN
Michael Porter Jr. - Apr 9, 2026
Nolan Traore - Mar 27, 2026
Noah Clowney - Mar 27, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Danny Wolf - Mar 27, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Pat Connaughton - Mar 26, 2026
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 28, 2026
CHI
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2026
Yuki Kawamura - Mar 27, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 27, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
Max Strus - Mar 27, 2026
Jarrett Allen - Mar 27, 2026
Craig Porter Jr. - Mar 30, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Mar 27, 2026
Dean Wade - Mar 27, 2026
DAL
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Mar 27, 2026
Caleb Martin - Mar 27, 2026
DEN
Aaron Gordon - Mar 27, 2026
Tamar Bates - Jul 1, 2026
DET
Wendell Moore Jr. - Mar 26, 2026
Cade Cunningham - Apr 8, 2026
Marcus Sasser - Mar 26, 2026
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 28, 2026
GSW
Al Horford - Mar 27, 2026
Quinten Post - Mar 27, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 27, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Malevy Leons - Mar 27, 2026
Moses Moody - Dec 1, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 29, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
IND
LAC
LAL
Adou Thiero - Mar 27, 2026
Marcus Smart - Mar 27, 2026
Nick Smith Jr. - Mar 27, 2026
Rui Hachimura - Mar 27, 2026
Deandre Ayton - Mar 27, 2026
MEM
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2026
Jahmai Mashack - Mar 27, 2026
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2026
Ty Jerome - Mar 27, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Mar 27, 2026
Rayan Rupert - Mar 27, 2026
MIA
Terry Rozier - Apr 1, 2026
Jahmir Young - Mar 27, 2026
MIL
Gary Harris - Mar 28, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Giannis Antetokounmpo - Mar 28, 2026
Myles Turner - Mar 28, 2026
Bobby Portis - Mar 28, 2026
Kyle Kuzma - Mar 28, 2026
MIN
Anthony Edwards - Mar 28, 2026
Ayo Dosunmu - Mar 28, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 27, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
Landry Shamet - Mar 29, 2026
OKC
Thomas Sorber - Oct 1, 2026
ORL
Jonathan Isaac - Mar 29, 2026
Anthony Black - Mar 29, 2026
Franz Wagner - Mar 29, 2026
Jalen Suggs - Mar 26, 2026
PHI
PHX
Dillon Brooks - Mar 28, 2026
Haywood Highsmith - Mar 28, 2026
Amir Coffey - Mar 28, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
Ryan Dunn - Mar 28, 2026
POR
SAC
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Mar 27, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Apr 1, 2026
Keegan Murray - Apr 1, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
Nique Clifford - Apr 1, 2026
Precious Achiuwa - Mar 26, 2026
Killian Hayes - Mar 26, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Oct 1, 2026
SAS
TOR
Immanuel Quickley - Mar 27, 2026
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 27, 2026
UTA
Isaiah Collier - Mar 27, 2026
Kyle Filipowski - Mar 27, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Brice Sensabaugh - Mar 27, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Apr 10, 2026
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Tre Johnson - Mar 27, 2026
Trae Young - Mar 27, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Apr 1, 2026
Alex Sarr - Mar 27, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Tristan Vukcevic - Mar 27, 2026