Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Saturday, December 21, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
BOS	East	100	26.9	31.2	19.2	12.5	89.7
CLE	East	99.9	17.0	25.5	19.8	16.3	78.6
NYK	East	99.8	12.0	20.8	18.5	17.3	68.5
ORL	East	99.5	10.2	18.3	18.1	16.8	63.3
MIL	East	93.0	3.4	7.2	10.7	11.0	32.2
MIA	East	88.5	3.3	6.8	10.4	10.1	30.6
IND	East	58.0	0.9	2.1	4.1	4.2	11.3
ATL	East	48.5	0.6	1.4	2.7	3.0	7.7
PHI	East	50.3	1.0	2.2	4.0	4.3	11.5
CHI	East	38.1	0.3	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.4
BKN	East	12.1	<0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	1.0
DET	East	10.2	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.9
TOR	East	1.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1
CHA	East	0.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East	<0.1
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	21.4	28.8	19.8	14.9	85.0
DAL	West	98.4	10.3	18.1	17.8	17.0	63.2
MEM	West	96.6	8.2	15.4	16.6	16.2	56.4
HOU	West	95.6	6.6	13.4	15.0	15.5	50.5
LAC	West	82.8	4.1	8.4	11.2	11.4	35.1
DEN	West	79.8	3.3	7.0	10.0	10.1	30.5
GSW	West	69.5	2.7	5.6	8.2	8.2	24.7
MIN	West	73.0	3.7	7.2	9.9	9.4	30.1
PHX	West	47.0	1.1	2.5	4.2	4.4	12.2
SAC	West	30.2	0.8	1.7	2.7	2.9	8.1
LAL	West	21.5	0.3	0.7	1.2	1.3	3.5
SAS	West	5.6	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
POR	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Saturday, December 21, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
BOS	East	59.2			69.6	26.6
CLE	East	56.6			28.4	59.0
NYK	East	50.3			1.5	9.2
ORL	East	48.7			0.6	4.6
MIL	East	44.2			<0.1	0.3
MIA	East	43.1			<0.1	0.2
IND	East	39.1				<0.1
ATL	East	38.3				<0.1
PHI	East	37.9				<0.1
CHI	East	37.2
BKN	East	33.7
DET	East	33.2
TOR	East	29.3
CHA	East	27.6
WAS	East	20.3
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	61.5			96.0	3.4
DAL	West	51.5			1.9	38.0
MEM	West	50.3			1.1	22.9
HOU	West	49.8			0.8	22.0
LAC	West	46.6			0.1	4.8
DEN	West	46.3			0.1	3.8
GSW	West	45.1			<0.1	2.3
MIN	West	45.0			<0.1	1.9
PHX	West	42.6			<0.1	0.6
SAC	West	40.9				0.1
LAL	West	40.0				0.1
SAS	West	36.8				<0.1
POR	West	26.5
NOP	West	25.7
UTA	West	22.6
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.