NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
BOS | East | 100 | 29.3 | 32.2 | 18.6 | 11.5 | 91.6 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 99.9 | 16.3 | 24.8 | 19.7 | 16.5 | 77.2 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 99.9 | 13.8 | 21.9 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 72.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 99.5 | 10.6 | 18.5 | 18.2 | 16.7 | 64.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 94.9 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 35.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 81.6 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 24.0 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 55.7 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 55.4 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 10.3 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 44.9 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 10.1 | |||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 20.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 19.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 13.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 7.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 7.7 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
WAS | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 99.9 | 19.7 | 27.6 | 20.2 | 15.5 | 82.9 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 98.1 | 10.7 | 19.3 | 18.3 | 17.1 | 65.5 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 96.4 | 7.4 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 53.5 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 90.3 | 5.7 | 11.6 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 44.8 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 83.2 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 81.3 | 4.3 | 8.6 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 35.7 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 73.7 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 27.8 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 59.6 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 19.3 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 55.2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 20.4 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 21.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 21.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 19.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals |
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Tuesday, December 3, 10:21 AM
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BOS | East | 58.5 | 80.5 | 15.4 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 53.4 | 14.3 | 53.0 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 50.8 | 4.5 | 24.2 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 47.3 | 0.7 | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 43.1 | <0.1 | 0.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 39.9 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 37.0 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 36.9 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 35.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 33.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
DET | East | 31.9 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 30.4 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 30.3 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 57.5 | 84.6 | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 50.5 | 7.5 | 33.0 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 49.4 | 4.5 | 25.1 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 47.5 | 1.8 | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 45.9 | 0.5 | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 45.7 | 0.6 | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 44.7 | 0.3 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 43.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 42.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 39.0 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 39.0 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 38.5 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 28.0 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.0 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Cody Zeller - Dec 6, 2024
Seth Lundy - Dec 6, 2024
BKN
Dorian Finney-Smith - Dec 4, 2024
Cam Thomas - Dec 18, 2024
Noah Clowney - Dec 19, 2024
Noah Clowney - Dec 19, 2024
Jaylen Martin - Dec 8, 2024
Bojan Bogdanović - Dec 4, 2024
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
Patrick Williams - Dec 5, 2024
CLE
Max Strus - Dec 27, 2024
Emoni Bates - Dec 7, 2024
DAL
Danté Exum - Jan 9, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 1, 2025
GSW
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
IND
Ben Sheppard - Dec 16, 2024
Aaron Nesmith - Dec 17, 2024
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
James Wiseman - Oct 1, 2025
LAC
LAL
MEM
MIA
Josh Richardson - Dec 4, 2024
Nikola Jović - Dec 4, 2024
MIL
Khris Middleton - Dec 4, 2024
MIN
Joe Ingles - Dec 4, 2024
NOP
Zion Williamson - Dec 21, 2024
Jose Alvarado - Dec 24, 2024
Jordan Hawkins - Dec 5, 2024
Brandon Ingram - Dec 5, 2024
Herbert Jones - Dec 5, 2024
NYK
Precious Achiuwa - Dec 9, 2024
Mitchell Robinson - Jan 1, 2025
OKC
Ousmane Dieng - Dec 19, 2024
Jaylin Williams - Dec 5, 2024
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Chet Holmgren - Jan 5, 2025
Alex Caruso - Dec 5, 2024
ORL
Gary Harris - Dec 4, 2024
Paolo Banchero - Dec 5, 2024
PHI
Andre Drummond - Dec 6, 2024
Joel Embiid - Dec 4, 2024
PHX
Collin Gillespie - Dec 18, 2024
POR
SAC
Trey Lyles - Dec 18, 2024
Devin Carter - Jan 10, 2025
TOR
UTA
WAS
Kyle Kuzma - Dec 5, 2024
Saddiq Bey - Dec 10, 2024