Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, December 16, 10:18 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
NYK	East	99.8	12.8	21.8	18.6	17.1	70.3
DET	East	99.6	7.9	15.4	15.6	16.3	55.2
CLE	East	98.9	12.7	20.7	18.7	16.1	68.1
BOS	East	98.7	13.6	21.8	19.6	15.7	70.7
ORL	East	97.9	7.9	14.5	15.7	15.0	53.2
ATL	East	79.8	2.5	5.3	8.8	8.5	25.1
MIA	East	78.2	2.4	5.1	8.3	8.1	23.8
PHI	East	69.7	1.6	3.6	6.3	6.6	18.1
TOR	East	64.7	1.2	2.8	4.9	5.3	14.2
MIL	East	6.7	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.8
CHI	East	3.9	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4
CHA	East	1.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
BKN	East	0.5		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
IND	East	0.6	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.4	33.9	16.1	8.5	94.9
HOU	West	99.9	15.7	25.0	19.6	16.9	77.3
DEN	West	99.4	8.4	16.4	16.4	16.9	58.1
SAS	West	96.9	5.4	10.8	13.3	13.7	43.2
LAL	West	93.7	2.6	5.8	9.0	9.8	27.3
GSW	West	93.2	6.6	11.8	14.9	12.9	46.2
MIN	West	91.0	3.9	7.9	11.3	10.8	33.9
MEM	West	67.9	1.5	3.3	5.6	5.3	15.7
PHX	West	31.1	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.8	2.1
POR	West	11.5	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
DAL	West	9.9	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
LAC	West	5.4	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1				<0.1	<0.1
SAC	West	<0.1
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, December 16, 10:18 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
NYK	East	53.9			44.9	24.1
DET	East	52.5			25.6	25.2
CLE	East	50.7			11.8	18.5
BOS	East	50.3			9.8	15.5
ORL	East	49.7			7.0	13.4
ATL	East	44.5			0.4	1.3
MIA	East	44.3			0.3	1.0
PHI	East	43.3			0.2	0.5
TOR	East	42.7			0.1	0.4
MIL	East	32.5
CHI	East	31.2
CHA	East	28.6
BKN	East	26.8
IND	East	26.8
WAS	East	17.2
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	68.0			99.2	0.8
HOU	West	56.8			0.7	69.2
DEN	West	52.7			0.1	18.7
SAS	West	50.0			<0.1	5.9
LAL	West	48.5			<0.1	2.5
GSW	West	47.7				1.4
MIN	West	47.6				1.4
MEM	West	42.8				0.1
PHX	West	39.7				<0.1
POR	West	35.8
DAL	West	35.0
LAC	West	33.6
UTA	West	26.4
NOP	West	25.2
SAC	West	24.9
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.