NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 100,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
CLE | East | 100 | 28.9 | 32.3 | 18.8 | 11.6 | 91.6 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 100 | 30.6 | 33.3 | 18.5 | 10.6 | 93.1 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 100 | 9.4 | 18.4 | 17.8 | 18.0 | 63.7 | |||||||||||||||
IND | East | 99.9 | 6.7 | 13.4 | 16.7 | 15.7 | 52.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 99.8 | 4.7 | 10.2 | 13.7 | 14.4 | 43.1 | |||||||||||||||
DET | East | 99.5 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 40.1 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 69.8 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 65.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 40.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 23.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 1.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | |||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC | West | 100 | 24.2 | 30.2 | 19.2 | 13.5 | 87.2 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 99.1 | 5.3 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 46.0 | |||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 98.7 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 13.8 | 15.0 | 45.3 | |||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 98.8 | 6.3 | 13.0 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 50.6 | |||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 96.4 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 38.1 | |||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 94.6 | 7.2 | 13.0 | 16.6 | 14.3 | 51.0 | |||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 94.5 | 7.0 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 14.0 | 50.2 | |||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 82.9 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 29.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 20.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 9.0 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 5.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
POR | West | 0.4 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | |||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals |
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | East | 66.3 | 99.7 | 0.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 59.6 | 0.3 | 99.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 51.6 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 45.5 | |||||||||||||||||
DET | East | 44.4 | |||||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 38.6 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 38.6 | |||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 36.4 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 34.6 | |||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 30.7 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 29.0 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 28.2 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 21.7 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 21.1 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 66.9 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 51.3 | 34.2 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.8 | 29.5 | ||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 50.7 | 19.2 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 49.4 | 10.6 | ||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 48.7 | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.6 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 46.0 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 40.6 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 38.2 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 36.8 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 34.5 | |||||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 33.2 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 22.7 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 19.2 | |||||||||||||||||
Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - Apr 1, 2025
Clint Capela - Mar 22, 2025
Jalen Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Caris LeVert - Mar 22, 2025
BKN
Cam Thomas - Oct 1, 2025
Ziaire Williams - Mar 18, 2025
Noah Clowney - Mar 18, 2025
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
D'Angelo Russell - Mar 18, 2025
Bojan Bogdanović - Oct 1, 2025
BOS
Al Horford - Mar 18, 2025
Derrick White - Mar 18, 2025
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Miller - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
CLE
Evan Mobley - Mar 18, 2025
DAL
Jaden Hardy - Mar 19, 2025
Daniel Gafford - Apr 2, 2025
Dereck Lively II - Apr 2, 2025
Caleb Martin - Mar 19, 2025
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2025
Olivier-Maxence Prosper - Oct 1, 2025
Anthony Davis - Apr 2, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Feb 1, 2026
Kai Jones - Mar 19, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 2, 2025
Julian Strawther - Apr 9, 2025
DET
Jaden Ivey - May 1, 2025
GSW
Brandin Podziemski - Mar 18, 2025
HOU
Amen Thompson - Mar 21, 2025
Reed Sheppard - Apr 9, 2025
IND
LAC
LAL
Rui Hachimura - Mar 19, 2025
LeBron James - Mar 24, 2025
Maxi Kleber - Apr 11, 2025
Trey Jemison III - Mar 19, 2025
MEM
MIA
MIL
Bobby Portis - Apr 5, 2025
NOP
NYK
Jalen Brunson - Mar 28, 2025
Ariel Hukporti - Apr 6, 2025
OKC
Alex Ducas - Mar 18, 2025
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Ajay Mitchell - Apr 2, 2025
Ousmane Dieng - Mar 19, 2025
Jalen Williams - Mar 19, 2025
Luguentz Dort - Mar 19, 2025
ORL
Moritz Wagner - Oct 1, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 1, 2025
PHI
Kyle Lowry - Mar 19, 2025
Adem Bona - Mar 19, 2025
Jared McCain - Oct 1, 2025
Lonnie Walker IV - Mar 19, 2025
Eric Gordon - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Maxey - Mar 19, 2025
Paul George - Oct 1, 2025
Andre Drummond - Mar 19, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 19, 2025
PHX
Grayson Allen - Mar 19, 2025
POR
Jerami Grant - Mar 19, 2025
Deandre Ayton - Mar 21, 2025
Jabari Walker - Mar 19, 2025
Robert Williams III - Mar 19, 2025
SAS
De'Aaron Fox - Oct 1, 2025
Charles Bassey - Mar 19, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Oct 1, 2025
Riley Minix - Oct 1, 2025
TOR
Gradey Dick - Mar 24, 2025
Ulrich Chomche - Jul 1, 2025
Ja'Kobe Walter - Mar 20, 2025
Brandon Ingram - Apr 1, 2025
RJ Barrett - Mar 20, 2025
UTA
Jaden Springer - Mar 19, 2025
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
KJ Martin - Mar 19, 2025
Elijah Harkless - Mar 19, 2025
John Collins - Mar 28, 2025
WAS
Marcus Smart - Mar 19, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Mar 19, 2025
Saddiq Bey - Apr 6, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Oct 1, 2025
Corey Kispert - Mar 21, 2025