NBA Playoff Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 60,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, March 16, 10:02 AM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
DET  | East | 100 | 14.0 | 23.3 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 74.3 | |||||||||||||||
BOS  | East | 100 | 21.3 | 29.3 | 19.8 | 15.3 | 85.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK  | East | 100 | 13.8 | 23.5 | 18.9 | 17.8 | 74.1 | |||||||||||||||
CLE  | East | 99.9 | 14.8 | 24.2 | 19.7 | 17.2 | 75.8 | |||||||||||||||
ORL  | East | 88.6 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 20.3 | |||||||||||||||
TOR  | East | 88.9 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||
MIA  | East | 86.9 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 26.0 | |||||||||||||||
PHI  | East | 49.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||
ATL  | East | 45.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||
CHA  | East | 41.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 10.9 | |||||||||||||||
MIL  | East | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
CHI  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
BKN  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
WAS  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
IND  | East | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
OKC  | West | 100 | 35.9 | 34.1 | 16.2 | 8.8 | 95.0 | |||||||||||||||
SAS  | West | 100 | 16.0 | 26.0 | 19.4 | 17.1 | 78.5 | |||||||||||||||
DEN  | West | 99.8 | 11.7 | 20.8 | 19.6 | 17.9 | 70.0 | |||||||||||||||
HOU  | West | 99.4 | 5.7 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 14.8 | 46.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAL  | West | 99.2 | 5.8 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 15.1 | 47.1 | |||||||||||||||
MIN  | West | 94.2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 28.2 | |||||||||||||||
PHX  | West | 85.7 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 20.4 | |||||||||||||||
LAC  | West | 60.2 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||
GSW  | West | 41.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||
POR  | West | 20.4 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |||||||||||||||
MEM  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
NOP  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
DAL  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
UTA  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
SAC  | West | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, March 16, 10:02 AM
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | East | 58.0 | 95.1 | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||
BOS | East | 54.4 | 4.4 | 64.6 | |||||||||||||||
NYK | East | 52.6 | 0.4 | 28.6 | |||||||||||||||
CLE | East | 51.0 | <0.1 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||
ORL | East | 46.3 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
TOR | East | 46.0 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
MIA | East | 45.9 | |||||||||||||||||
PHI | East | 43.5 | |||||||||||||||||
ATL | East | 43.1 | |||||||||||||||||
CHA | East | 42.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MIL | East | 34.2 | |||||||||||||||||
CHI | East | 32.3 | |||||||||||||||||
BKN | East | 21.0 | |||||||||||||||||
WAS | East | 19.4 | |||||||||||||||||
IND | East | 19.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed | |
OKC | West | 64.1 | 97.4 | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||
SAS | West | 59.3 | 2.6 | 97.4 | |||||||||||||||
DEN | West | 50.8 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
HOU | West | 50.5 | <0.1 | ||||||||||||||||
LAL | West | 50.2 | |||||||||||||||||
MIN | West | 48.3 | |||||||||||||||||
PHX | West | 46.5 | |||||||||||||||||
LAC | West | 42.7 | |||||||||||||||||
GSW | West | 40.8 | |||||||||||||||||
POR | West | 39.7 | |||||||||||||||||
MEM | West | 28.1 | |||||||||||||||||
NOP | West | 27.5 | |||||||||||||||||
DAL | West | 27.5 | |||||||||||||||||
UTA | West | 23.3 | |||||||||||||||||
SAC | West | 21.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Wins | Wins Low | Wins High | 1 Seed | 2 Seed | 3 Seed | 4 Seed | 5 Seed | 6 Seed | 7 Seed | 8 Seed | 9 Seed | 10 Seed | 11 Seed | 12 Seed | 13 Seed | 14 Seed | 15 Seed |
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.
Injured players and estimated return date.
ATL
Eli John Ndiaye - Jul 2, 2026
N'Faly Dante - Jan 1, 2027
Duop Reath - Oct 1, 2026
Jacob Toppin - Oct 1, 2026
Jonathan Kuminga - Mar 16, 2026
BKN
Noah Clowney - Mar 18, 2026
Egor Demin - Oct 1, 2026
Drake Powell - Mar 16, 2026
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2026
Michael Porter Jr. - Mar 18, 2026
Nic Claxton - Mar 16, 2026
Terance Mann - Mar 18, 2026
BOS
Nikola Vucevic - Apr 5, 2026
CHA
Liam McNeeley - Mar 17, 2026
Tidjane Salaun - Mar 17, 2026
CHI
Jaden Ivey - Mar 18, 2026
Anfernee Simons - Mar 18, 2026
Collin Sexton - Mar 16, 2026
Isaac Okoro - Mar 16, 2026
Zach Collins - Oct 1, 2026
Jalen Smith - Mar 16, 2026
Noa Essengue - Oct 1, 2026
CLE
Jarrett Allen - Mar 17, 2026
Sam Merrill - Mar 17, 2026
Tyrese Proctor - Mar 17, 2026
Craig Porter Jr. - Mar 17, 2026
Jaylon Tyson - Mar 17, 2026
DAL
Kyrie Irving - Oct 1, 2026
Daniel Gafford - Mar 16, 2026
Klay Thompson - Mar 16, 2026
Dereck Lively II - Oct 1, 2026
DEN
DET
Isaiah Stewart - Mar 20, 2026
GSW
Al Horford - Mar 23, 2026
Moses Moody - Mar 16, 2026
De'Anthony Melton - Mar 16, 2026
Jimmy Butler III - Dec 1, 2026
Draymond Green - Mar 16, 2026
Stephen Curry - Mar 23, 2026
Seth Curry - Mar 23, 2026
Kristaps Porzingis - Mar 16, 2026
HOU
Fred VanVleet - Jun 1, 2026
Jae'Sean Tate - Mar 23, 2026
Steven Adams - Oct 1, 2026
Alperen Sengun - Mar 16, 2026
IND
Tyrese Haliburton - Oct 1, 2026
Pascal Siakam - Mar 17, 2026
Ben Sheppard - Mar 17, 2026
Andrew Nembhard - Mar 17, 2026
Johnny Furphy - Jan 1, 2027
LAC
LAL
Maxi Kleber - Mar 19, 2026
MEM
Brandon Clarke - Mar 18, 2026
Scotty Pippen Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
Zach Edey - Oct 1, 2026
Jaylen Wells - Mar 16, 2026
Walter Clayton Jr. - Mar 16, 2026
Rayan Rupert - Mar 16, 2026
Santi Aldama - Oct 1, 2026
GG Jackson - Mar 16, 2026
Ja Morant - Mar 20, 2026
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Oct 1, 2026
MIA
MIL
Ousmane Dieng - Mar 17, 2026
Kevin Porter Jr. - Mar 17, 2026
NOP
Bryce McGowens - Mar 18, 2026
NYK
Miles McBride - Apr 1, 2026
OKC
ORL
Jonathan Isaac - Mar 19, 2026
Alex Morales - Mar 16, 2026
Anthony Black - Mar 17, 2026
Jett Howard - Mar 16, 2026
Franz Wagner - Mar 23, 2026
PHI
Johni Broome - Apr 1, 2026
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 28, 2026
Joel Embiid - Mar 17, 2026
Paul George - Mar 25, 2026
Tyrese Maxey - Apr 1, 2026
Dalen Terry - Mar 17, 2026
Jabari Walker - Mar 17, 2026
PHX
Dillon Brooks - Mar 24, 2026
Mark Williams - Mar 28, 2026
POR
SAC
Devin Carter - Mar 17, 2026
Russell Westbrook - Mar 17, 2026
Zach LaVine - Oct 1, 2026
De'Andre Hunter - Oct 1, 2026
Domantas Sabonis - Oct 1, 2026
Isaiah Stevens - Mar 17, 2026
Malik Monk - Mar 17, 2026
Drew Eubanks - Mar 17, 2026
Keegan Murray - Mar 28, 2026
SAS
TOR
Chucky Hepburn - Mar 18, 2026
Collin Murray-Boyles - Mar 18, 2026
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2026
Keyonte George - Mar 27, 2026
John Konchar - Mar 18, 2026
Lauri Markkanen - Mar 19, 2026
Vince Williams Jr. - Jan 1, 2027
Ace Bailey - Mar 18, 2026
Jusuf Nurkic - Oct 1, 2026
Kyle Filipowski - Mar 18, 2026
Jaren Jackson Jr. - Oct 1, 2026
WAS
D'Angelo Russell - Apr 1, 2026
Cam Whitmore - Oct 1, 2026
Anthony Davis - Apr 1, 2026
Leaky Black - Mar 17, 2026
Alex Sarr - Mar 17, 2026
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2026
Kyshawn George - Mar 27, 2026