Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Sunday, August 17, 4:18 PM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
CLE
East99.921.929.019.714.485.1
NYK
East99.312.321.218.417.169.0
ORL
East99.312.821.418.917.070.1
ATL
East91.46.111.613.613.644.9
BOS
East85.87.712.915.112.948.7
DET
East71.32.45.27.57.923.1
PHI
East61.31.53.45.56.016.5
MIL
East57.91.33.05.05.214.6
MIA
East40.30.81.83.13.49.1
TOR
East38.60.71.42.83.18.0
IND
East39.40.81.83.03.49.0
CHI
East13.30.20.40.60.82.0
CHA
East1.7<0.1<0.1<0.10.10.1
BKN
East0.3<0.1<0.1<0.1
WAS
East<0.1
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West10024.531.119.513.488.4
HOU
West99.914.323.219.517.374.3
LAC
West97.78.316.016.816.657.6
DEN
West95.16.313.114.814.748.9
GSW
West86.44.28.511.311.335.4
MIN
West79.22.96.29.49.528.1
LAL
West77.42.86.08.88.926.4
MEM
West72.92.45.37.88.123.5
DAL
West43.01.02.23.83.510.4
SAS
West31.40.41.01.92.15.5
SAC
West10.00.10.20.30.41.0
POR
West4.2<0.10.10.20.20.5
NOP
West2.0<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
PHX
West0.8<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
UTA
West
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Sunday, August 17, 4:18 PM
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
CLE
East54.868.320.6
NYK
East49.614.632.8
ORL
East49.514.332.1
ATL
East44.31.77.3
BOS
East42.60.63.6
DET
East40.60.21.5
PHI
East39.40.10.9
MIL
East39.00.10.6
MIA
East37.0<0.10.2
TOR
East36.9<0.10.2
IND
East36.8<0.10.2
CHI
East33.1<0.1
CHA
East28.5<0.1
BKN
East25.4
WAS
East23.1
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West60.380.515.6
HOU
West54.815.151.8
LAC
West50.42.616.1
DEN
West48.61.38.9
GSW
West45.90.33.3
MIN
West44.50.11.5
LAL
West44.30.11.5
MEM
West43.60.11.2
DAL
West39.8<0.10.1
SAS
West38.60.1
SAC
West35.0<0.1
POR
West32.5
NOP
West31.1
PHX
West29.5
UTA
West20.4
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.

Injured players and estimated return date.

ATL
Jalen Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
BKN
Day'Ron Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
Ziaire Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Cam Thomas - Oct 1, 2025
Noah Clowney - Oct 1, 2025
Bojan Bogdanović - Oct 1, 2025
BOS
Anfernee Simons - Oct 1, 2025
Jaylen Brown - Oct 1, 2025
Jayson Tatum - Apr 1, 2026
Chris Boucher - Oct 1, 2025
CHA
Brandon Miller - Oct 1, 2025
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Miles Bridges - Oct 1, 2025
LaMelo Ball - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
Ayo Dosunmu - Oct 1, 2025
Tre Jones - Oct 1, 2025
CLE
Sam Merrill - Oct 1, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - Oct 1, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Oct 1, 2025
Darius Garland - Nov 1, 2025
DAL
D'Angelo Russell - Oct 1, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Feb 1, 2026
DEN
Bruce Brown - Oct 1, 2025
Russell Westbrook - Oct 1, 2025
Cameron Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
DET
Jaden Ivey - Oct 1, 2025
Isaiah Stewart - Oct 1, 2025
GSW
Stephen Curry - Oct 1, 2025
Moses Moody - Oct 1, 2025
Brandin Podziemski - Oct 1, 2025
HOU
Kevin Durant - Oct 1, 2025
Clint Capela - Oct 1, 2025
Jae'Sean Tate - Oct 1, 2025
Dorian Finney-Smith - Oct 1, 2025
IND
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
James Wiseman - Oct 1, 2025
Jarace Walker - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Haliburton - May 1, 2026
LAC
Bradley Beal - Oct 1, 2025
John Collins - Oct 1, 2025
LAL
Jake LaRavia - Oct 1, 2025
Deandre Ayton - Oct 1, 2025
MEM
Zach Edey - Nov 1, 2025
Brandon Clarke - Oct 1, 2025
Jaylen Wells - Oct 1, 2025
Ja Morant - Oct 1, 2025
Jock Landale - Oct 1, 2025
MIA
Dru Smith - Oct 1, 2025
Terry Rozier - Oct 1, 2025
MIL
Vasilije Micic - Oct 1, 2025
NOP
Karlo Matkovic - Oct 1, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Nov 1, 2025
Bryce McGowens - Oct 1, 2025
Herbert Jones - Oct 1, 2025
Trey Murphy III - Oct 1, 2025
Zion Williamson - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Hawkins - Oct 1, 2025
Yves Missi - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Poole - Oct 1, 2025
Saddiq Bey - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Boston - Oct 1, 2025
NYK
Guerschon Yabusele - Oct 1, 2025
Jordan Clarkson - Oct 1, 2025
OKC
Jalen Williams - Oct 1, 2025
ORL
Moritz Wagner - Oct 1, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 1, 2025
PHI
Kyle Lowry - Oct 1, 2025
Justin Edwards - Oct 1, 2025
Eric Gordon - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Maxey - Oct 1, 2025
Jared McCain - Oct 1, 2025
Alex Reese - Oct 1, 2025
Paul George - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Oct 1, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 1, 2025
Andre Drummond - Oct 1, 2025
PHX
Devin Booker - Oct 1, 2025
Nick Richards - Oct 1, 2025
POR
Jerami Grant - Oct 1, 2025
Shaedon Sharpe - Oct 1, 2025
Scoot Henderson - Oct 1, 2025
Damian Lillard - Mar 1, 2026
Deni Avdija - Oct 1, 2025
Robert Williams III - Oct 1, 2025
SAC
Malik Monk - Oct 1, 2025
SAS
Kelly Olynyk - Oct 1, 2025
Devin Vassell - Oct 1, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Oct 1, 2025
Jeremy Sochan - Oct 1, 2025
De'Aaron Fox - Oct 1, 2025
TOR
Brandon Ingram - Oct 1, 2025
Gradey Dick - Oct 1, 2025
Jared Rhoden - Oct 1, 2025
RJ Barrett - Oct 1, 2025
Jakob Poeltl - Oct 1, 2025
Immanuel Quickley - Oct 1, 2025
Garrett Temple - Oct 1, 2025
Ja'Kobe Walter - Oct 1, 2025
UTA
Walker Kessler - Oct 1, 2025
Isaiah Collier - Oct 1, 2025
Lauri Markkanen - Oct 1, 2025
KJ Martin - Oct 1, 2025
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
WAS
CJ McCollum - Oct 1, 2025
Khris Middleton - Oct 1, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Oct 1, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Oct 1, 2025
Anthony Gill - Oct 1, 2025
Richaun Holmes - Oct 1, 2025
JT Thor - Oct 1, 2025
Corey Kispert - Oct 1, 2025