Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, March 25, 9:56 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	100	24.3	31.0	20.0	13.4	88.6
BOS	East	100	30.4	33.1	18.5	10.7	92.7
NYK	East	100	9.3	17.8	17.7	18.1	62.9
IND	East	99.9	6.1	12.9	15.2	16.2	50.4
MIL	East	99.9	5.9	11.4	15.5	14.8	47.8
DET	East	99.7	4.1	8.5	13.3	12.6	38.5
ATL	East	72.4	0.3	0.9	2.0	2.4	5.7
ORL	East	65.7	0.4	1.1	2.4	2.8	6.7
CHI	East	36.4	0.2	0.5	1.3	1.5	3.7
MIA	East	25.8	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.2	2.9
TOR	East	<0.1			<0.1		<0.1
BKN	East
PHI	East	<0.1
CHA	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	24.0	29.8	19.3	13.7	86.8
HOU	West	99.9	5.6	12.6	13.9	16.3	48.3
DEN	West	99.5	5.2	11.6	13.4	15.6	45.9
MEM	West	97.4	6.1	12.3	15.1	14.8	48.4
LAL	West	95.9	3.5	7.8	11.2	12.0	34.6
GSW	West	93.7	6.8	12.5	15.7	13.8	48.7
LAC	West	89.5	5.7	10.2	14.0	12.0	41.9
MIN	West	89.5	6.0	10.5	14.6	12.3	43.5
SAC	West	16.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.4	1.0
DAL	West	8.9	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4
PHX	West	9.3	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.5
POR	West	0.5	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
SAS	West	0.1				<0.1	<0.1
NOP	West
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, March 25, 9:56 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	64.4			96.1	3.9
BOS	East	60.6			3.9	96.1
NYK	East	50.7
IND	East	48.1
MIL	East	46.3
DET	East	44.8
ATL	East	40.2
ORL	East	39.2
CHI	East	37.1
MIA	East	35.8
TOR	East	29.7
BKN	East	27.0
PHI	East	27.0
CHA	East	21.7
WAS	East	18.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	67.5			100
HOU	West	51.5				62.3
DEN	West	50.4				25.7
MEM	West	49.0				4.7
LAL	West	48.2				4.5
GSW	West	47.8				2.5
LAC	West	46.9				0.2
MIN	West	46.8				<0.1
SAC	West	40.1
DAL	West	39.4
PHX	West	38.9
POR	West	36.3
SAS	West	34.8
NOP	West	22.5
UTA	West	18.7
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.