Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
CLE
East10028.932.318.811.691.6
BOS
East10030.633.318.510.693.1
NYK
East1009.418.417.818.063.7
IND
East99.96.713.416.715.752.5
MIL
East99.84.710.213.714.443.1
DET
East99.54.59.013.912.740.1
ORL
East69.80.41.02.32.66.4
ATL
East65.70.30.71.61.94.4
MIA
East40.00.20.61.31.53.6
CHI
East23.90.10.20.60.71.6
TOR
East1.1<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.10.1
PHI
East0.4<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
BKN
East<0.1<0.1<0.1<0.1
CHA
East
WAS
East
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
OKC
West10024.230.219.213.587.2
DEN
West99.15.311.713.615.446.0
HOU
West98.75.211.413.815.045.3
MEM
West98.86.313.015.316.050.6
LAL
West96.44.08.812.113.238.1
GSW
West94.67.213.016.614.351.0
MIN
West94.57.012.916.314.050.2
LAC
West82.93.56.710.39.029.6
SAC
West20.30.10.20.50.61.4
DAL
West9.0<0.1<0.10.10.20.4
PHX
West5.1<0.1<0.10.10.10.2
POR
West0.4<0.1<0.1<0.1
SAS
West0.1
NOP
West
UTA
West
ConfMakein 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Winin 4in 5in 6in 7Win
Win Round 1Win Conference SemifinalsWin Conference FinalsWin Finals
"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Monday, March 17, 9:57 AM
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
CLE
East66.399.70.3
BOS
East59.60.399.6
NYK
East51.6<0.1
IND
East45.9
MIL
East45.5
DET
East44.4
ORL
East38.6
ATL
East38.6
MIA
East36.4
CHI
East34.6
TOR
East30.7
PHI
East29.0
BKN
East28.2
CHA
East21.7
WAS
East21.1
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
OKC
West66.9100
DEN
West51.334.2
HOU
West50.829.5
MEM
West50.719.2
LAL
West49.410.6
GSW
West48.75.0
MIN
West48.61.5
LAC
West46.00.1
SAC
West40.6
DAL
West38.2
PHX
West36.8
POR
West34.5
SAS
West33.2
NOP
West22.7
UTA
West19.2
ConfWinsWins LowWins High1 Seed2 Seed3 Seed4 Seed5 Seed6 Seed7 Seed8 Seed9 Seed10 Seed11 Seed12 Seed13 Seed14 Seed15 Seed
"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.

Injured players and estimated return date.

ATL
Kobe Bufkin - Oct 1, 2025
Larry Nance Jr. - Apr 1, 2025
Clint Capela - Mar 22, 2025
Jalen Johnson - Oct 1, 2025
Caris LeVert - Mar 22, 2025
BKN
Cam Thomas - Oct 1, 2025
Ziaire Williams - Mar 18, 2025
Noah Clowney - Mar 18, 2025
De'Anthony Melton - Oct 1, 2025
D'Angelo Russell - Mar 18, 2025
Bojan Bogdanović - Oct 1, 2025
BOS
Al Horford - Mar 18, 2025
Derrick White - Mar 18, 2025
CHA
Grant Williams - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Miller - Oct 1, 2025
CHI
Ayo Dosunmu - Oct 1, 2025
Lonzo Ball - Mar 27, 2025
Josh Giddey - Mar 19, 2025
CLE
Evan Mobley - Mar 18, 2025
DAL
Jaden Hardy - Mar 19, 2025
Daniel Gafford - Apr 2, 2025
Dereck Lively II - Apr 2, 2025
Caleb Martin - Mar 19, 2025
Dante Exum - Oct 1, 2025
Anthony Davis - Apr 2, 2025
Kyrie Irving - Feb 1, 2026
Kai Jones - Mar 19, 2025
DEN
DaRon Holmes II - Jul 2, 2025
Julian Strawther - Apr 9, 2025
DET
Jaden Ivey - May 1, 2025
GSW
Brandin Podziemski - Mar 18, 2025
HOU
Amen Thompson - Mar 21, 2025
Reed Sheppard - Apr 9, 2025
IND
Pascal Siakam - Mar 19, 2025
Johnny Furphy - Mar 19, 2025
Isaiah Jackson - Oct 1, 2025
LAC
Jordan Miller - Mar 21, 2025
Kris Dunn - Mar 18, 2025
Seth Lundy - Mar 21, 2025
LAL
Rui Hachimura - Mar 19, 2025
LeBron James - Mar 24, 2025
Maxi Kleber - Apr 11, 2025
Trey Jemison III - Mar 19, 2025
MEM
Ja Morant - Mar 19, 2025
Santi Aldama - Mar 19, 2025
Zyon Pullin - Mar 19, 2025
MIA
Alec Burks - Mar 19, 2025
Nikola Jovic - Mar 27, 2025
Dru Smith - Oct 1, 2025
MIL
Bobby Portis - Apr 5, 2025
NOP
Herbert Jones - Oct 1, 2025
Dejounte Murray - Oct 1, 2025
Brandon Boston - Mar 28, 2025
NYK
Jalen Brunson - Mar 28, 2025
Ariel Hukporti - Apr 6, 2025
OKC
Alex Ducas - Mar 18, 2025
Nikola Topic - Jul 1, 2025
Ajay Mitchell - Apr 2, 2025
Ousmane Dieng - Mar 19, 2025
Jalen Williams - Mar 19, 2025
Luguentz Dort - Mar 19, 2025
ORL
Moritz Wagner - Oct 1, 2025
Jalen Suggs - Oct 1, 2025
PHI
Kyle Lowry - Mar 19, 2025
Adem Bona - Mar 19, 2025
Jared McCain - Oct 1, 2025
Lonnie Walker IV - Mar 19, 2025
Eric Gordon - Oct 1, 2025
Tyrese Maxey - Mar 19, 2025
Paul George - Oct 1, 2025
Andre Drummond - Mar 19, 2025
Joel Embiid - Oct 1, 2025
Kelly Oubre Jr. - Mar 19, 2025
PHX
Grayson Allen - Mar 19, 2025
POR
Jerami Grant - Mar 19, 2025
Deandre Ayton - Mar 21, 2025
Jabari Walker - Mar 19, 2025
Robert Williams III - Mar 19, 2025
SAS
De'Aaron Fox - Oct 1, 2025
Charles Bassey - Mar 19, 2025
Victor Wembanyama - Oct 1, 2025
Riley Minix - Oct 1, 2025
TOR
Gradey Dick - Mar 24, 2025
Ulrich Chomche - Jul 1, 2025
Ja'Kobe Walter - Mar 20, 2025
Brandon Ingram - Apr 1, 2025
RJ Barrett - Mar 20, 2025
UTA
Jaden Springer - Mar 19, 2025
Taylor Hendricks - Oct 1, 2025
KJ Martin - Mar 19, 2025
Elijah Harkless - Mar 19, 2025
John Collins - Mar 28, 2025
WAS
Marcus Smart - Mar 19, 2025
Malcolm Brogdon - Mar 19, 2025
Saddiq Bey - Apr 6, 2025
Bilal Coulibaly - Oct 1, 2025
Corey Kispert - Mar 21, 2025