NBA Season Probabilities
Probabilities are based on 30,000 simulations of remaining games and consider NBA tiebreaker criteria, the play-in tournament, and the playoffs. EPM-driven team strength optimized for game context is used to predict the outcome of each game in the simulation, and injured players are excluded for expected missed games. For more information, see the bottom of this page.
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NBA Cup Probabilities
Updated Monday, October 26, 9:06 PM
· The NBA Cup knockout round is an eight-team bracket — the six group winners plus a wildcard from each conference.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· Every Cup game except the final counts toward the regular-season standings, so those results are included in the tables above.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities
Updated Monday, October 26, 9:06 PM
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
BOS  | East | 57.3 | 7.6 | 39.1 | 20.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
DET  | East | 51.9 | 18.5 | 17.7 | 17.1 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | |||||||||||
TOR  | East | 48.9 | 25.5 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 4.7 | |||||||||||
NYK  | East | 47.8 | 27.7 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 5.4 | |||||||||||
CLE  | East | 44.2 | 35.7 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.0 | |||||||||||
IND  | East | 43.3 | 37.4 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 8.5 | |||||||||||
ATL  | East | 43.2 | 37.1 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.1 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
PHI  | East | 43.0 | 38.2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 8.7 | |||||||||||
ORL  | East | 42.8 | 37.6 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 8.6 | |||||||||||
MIA  | East | 41.6 | 39.4 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.7 | |||||||||||
CHA  | East | 38.6 | 40.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 11.3 | |||||||||||
WAS  | East | 29.2 | 22.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 8.6 | |||||||||||
CHI  | East | 25.8 | 14.6 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 6.1 | |||||||||||
MIL  | East | 23.4 | 10.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | |||||||||||
BKN  | East | 22.0 | 7.7 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | |||||||||||
| Win Totals | Standings Finish | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Avg | Low | High | Play-In | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
OKC  | West | 61.5 | 3.8 | 43.5 | 24.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | |||||||||||
SAS  | West | 59.2 | 5.9 | 29.2 | 26.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |||||||||||
HOU  | West | 53.6 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |||||||||||
MIN  | West | 46.9 | 32.1 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 5.8 | |||||||||||
DEN  | West | 45.5 | 34.3 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 6.7 | |||||||||||
POR  | West | 45.3 | 34.8 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | |||||||||||
LAL  | West | 45.3 | 34.4 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | |||||||||||
GSW  | West | 39.7 | 39.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 10.1 | 10.5 | |||||||||||
MEM  | West | 39.6 | 39.5 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 10.2 | |||||||||||
PHX  | West | 37.6 | 37.9 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 10.6 | |||||||||||
LAC  | West | 37.1 | 37.7 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 10.7 | |||||||||||
DAL  | West | 35.6 | 35.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | |||||||||||
UTA  | West | 31.2 | 24.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.6 | |||||||||||
NOP  | West | 28.3 | 18.4 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 6.8 | |||||||||||
SAC  | West | 20.9 | 5.1 | <0.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||
· "Wins" is the average regular-season win total across all simulations. Low and high are the 10th and 90th percentiles.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Play-In" is the probability a team finishes 7th–10th and plays in the play-in tournament.
· "Standings Finish" is where a team ends the regular season, before the play-in is played. Seeds 7–10 are the play-in field.
· The two views differ only for seeds 7–10 — the play-in cannot move a team outside that range.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Playoff Probabilities by Round
Updated Monday, October 26, 9:06 PM
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| BOS | East | 96.3 | 24.9 | 25.5 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 77.1 | |||||||||||||||
| DET | East | 88.2 | 12.1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 53.1 | |||||||||||||||
| TOR | East | 81.9 | 10.5 | 14.1 | 12.0 | 10.3 | 46.8 | |||||||||||||||
| NYK | East | 80.0 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 47.7 | |||||||||||||||
| CLE | East | 66.3 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 26.4 | |||||||||||||||
| IND | East | 63.8 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 28.5 | |||||||||||||||
| ATL | East | 63.8 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 27.1 | |||||||||||||||
| PHI | East | 62.4 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 24.3 | |||||||||||||||
| ORL | East | 62.9 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 26.6 | |||||||||||||||
| MIA | East | 57.9 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 22.3 | |||||||||||||||
| CHA | East | 45.9 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 15.3 | |||||||||||||||
| WAS | East | 13.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||
| CHI | East | 7.8 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||
| MIL | East | 5.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | |||||||||||||||
| BKN | East | 3.7 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Win Round 1 | Win Conference Semifinals | Win Conference Finals | Win Finals | |||||||||||||||||||
| Conf | Make | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | in 4 | in 5 | in 6 | in 7 | Win | |
| OKC | West | 98.4 | 27.9 | 27.0 | 14.9 | 11.1 | 80.7 | |||||||||||||||
| SAS | West | 97.3 | 27.5 | 27.1 | 14.4 | 10.9 | 79.9 | |||||||||||||||
| HOU | West | 90.7 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 13.9 | 11.1 | 61.7 | |||||||||||||||
| MIN | West | 73.6 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 29.8 | |||||||||||||||
| DEN | West | 69.3 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 32.5 | |||||||||||||||
| POR | West | 69.4 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 30.6 | |||||||||||||||
| LAL | West | 68.3 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 28.7 | |||||||||||||||
| GSW | West | 47.9 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||
| MEM | West | 45.8 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||
| PHX | West | 39.2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||
| LAC | West | 37.6 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 9.2 | |||||||||||||||
| DAL | West | 31.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||
| UTA | West | 17.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||
| NOP | West | 11.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||
| SAC | West | 2.2 | <0.1 | <0.1 | <0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | |||||||||||||||
· "Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the play-in tournament.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
· "Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
· Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities — the running total appears in the bottom corner of the screen.
Injured players and estimated return date
ATL
Henri Veesaar · Jul 1, 2027
Mouhamed Gueye · Nov 20, 2026
BKN
Tyler Bilodeau · Oct 28, 2026
Mikel Brown Jr. · Oct 27, 2026
BOS
Devin Carter · Nov 8, 2026
CHA
Grant Williams · Oct 30, 2026
Kylan Boswell · Oct 26, 2026
Kon Knueppel · Oct 28, 2026
Coby White · Oct 28, 2026
CHI
CLE
Khalifa Diop · Oct 27, 2026
Nae'Qwan Tomlin · Nov 16, 2026
DAL
Naji Marshall · Oct 28, 2026
Santi Aldama · Nov 2, 2026
Caleb Martin · Oct 27, 2026
Dereck Lively II · Nov 2, 2026
Tarik Biberovic · Nov 2, 2026
Cooper Flagg · Oct 26, 2026
Kyrie Irving · Oct 26, 2026
DEN
Cameron Johnson · Oct 26, 2026
Alpha Diallo · Oct 27, 2026
Julian Strawther · Nov 29, 2026
Spencer Jones · Oct 28, 2026
DET
Jalen Duren · Nov 9, 2026
Ausar Thompson · Oct 27, 2026
GSW
Moses Moody · Dec 1, 2026
Brandin Podziemski · Oct 26, 2026
Stephen Curry · Oct 26, 2026
Al Horford · Oct 26, 2026
Jimmy Butler III · Jan 2, 2027
Draymond Green · Oct 26, 2026
Kristaps Porziņģis · Dec 1, 2026
HOU
Steven Adams · Oct 28, 2026
Marcus Smart · Oct 28, 2026
IND
Johnny Furphy · Jan 2, 2027
T.J. McConnell · Oct 27, 2026
Ben Sheppard · Dec 1, 2026
Ivica Zubac · Oct 28, 2026
LAC
Max Strus · Nov 8, 2026
Yanic Konan Niederhauser · Nov 8, 2026
Bradley Beal · Nov 8, 2026
Jordan Miller · Mar 2, 2027
Brandon Ingram · Nov 8, 2026
LAL
Cameron Carr · Oct 27, 2026
Adou Thiero · Oct 27, 2026
MEM
Zach Edey · Oct 26, 2026
Karim Lopez · Oct 26, 2026
MIN
Donte DiVincenzo · Apr 2, 2027
NOP
Yves Missi · Nov 2, 2026
NYK
Jose Alvarado · Oct 28, 2026
OKC
Nikola Topic · Oct 27, 2026
Jalen Williams · Mar 2, 2027
Jaylin Williams · Oct 26, 2026
Otega Oweh · Jul 1, 2027
Cason Wallace · Oct 28, 2026
Chet Holmgren · Oct 28, 2026
Thomas Sorber · Oct 27, 2026
ORL
Jonathan Isaac · Oct 28, 2026
Jalen Suggs · Nov 9, 2026
Noah Penda · Nov 18, 2026
Paolo Banchero · Nov 21, 2026
Izaiyah Nelson · Nov 18, 2026
PHI
Dominick Barlow · Nov 2, 2026
Jabari Walker · Oct 28, 2026
Ariel Hukporti · Oct 1, 2027
VJ Edgecombe · Oct 28, 2026
Joel Embiid · Oct 28, 2026
Tacko Fall · Oct 28, 2026
PHX
Mark Williams · Feb 3, 2027
Oso Ighodaro · Oct 27, 2026
POR
SAC
Maxime Raynaud · Nov 2, 2026
Dylan Cardwell · Nov 2, 2026
Keegan Murray · Oct 28, 2026
Ben Simmons · Oct 1, 2027
SAS
Jayden Quaintance · Dec 3, 2026
Tobias Harris · Oct 28, 2026
TOR
Nate Bittle · Oct 28, 2026
Kawhi Leonard · Oct 28, 2026
UTA
Trey Alexander · Oct 27, 2026
Jusuf Nurkić · Nov 4, 2026
WAS
Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. Game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.