Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Wednesday, February 4, 10:12 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
DET	East	100	16.3	25.6	19.6	16.6	78.1
BOS	East	99.9	19.6	28.0	20.0	15.7	83.2
NYK	East	99.8	12.1	20.7	18.7	17.3	68.8
CLE	East	99.9	17.5	26.0	20.0	16.1	79.6
TOR	East	90.0	1.7	3.8	6.7	7.3	19.5
PHI	East	87.3	2.0	4.4	7.7	7.7	21.9
MIA	East	80.5	1.9	4.1	7.2	7.3	20.5
ORL	East	68.9	1.3	3.0	5.6	5.8	15.7
ATL	East	46.0	0.7	1.5	3.0	3.2	8.3
CHA	East	22.6	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.5	3.8
CHI	East	4.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
MIL	East	1.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
IND	East	<0.1
BKN	East
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	36.7	34.4	16.0	8.5	95.6
SAS	West	99.7	9.7	18.5	17.4	17.7	63.4
HOU	West	99.7	11.3	19.9	18.4	17.3	66.9
DEN	West	98.0	6.8	13.2	15.4	15.4	50.8
MIN	West	95.4	5.5	10.7	13.9	13.2	43.3
PHX	West	94.8	3.7	7.9	11.0	11.6	34.2
LAL	West	81.7	1.5	3.5	6.0	6.3	17.3
GSW	West	77.0	2.6	5.5	8.6	7.7	24.4
LAC	West	30.0	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.2	3.1
POR	West	13.6	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.6
MEM	West	8.5	<0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4
DAL	West	1.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	0.1
UTA	West	<0.1
NOP	West
SAC	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Final Seed Probabilities

Updated Wednesday, February 4, 10:12 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
DET	East	57.6			89.4	8.0
BOS	East	51.8			3.7	40.3
NYK	East	51.1			4.2	30.6
CLE	East	50.8			2.7	19.6
TOR	East	45.5			<0.1	0.7
PHI	East	45.1			<0.1	0.6
MIA	East	44.0				0.1
ORL	East	42.9				<0.1
ATL	East	40.8				<0.1
CHA	East	38.3
CHI	East	35.4
MIL	East	32.6
IND	East	25.0
BKN	East	23.9
WAS	East	21.1
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	63.8			99.8	0.2
SAS	West	52.7			0.2	48.0
HOU	West	52.3			0.1	34.5
DEN	West	49.6			<0.1	8.8
MIN	West	48.5			<0.1	4.3
PHX	West	48.0				3.4
LAL	West	45.6				0.6
GSW	West	44.1				0.1
LAC	West	39.7				<0.1
POR	West	37.7
MEM	West	35.8
DAL	West	32.6
UTA	West	26.2
NOP	West	25.3
SAC	West	22.0
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.