Playoff Probabilities

Playoff Probabilities by Round

Updated Tuesday, January 21, 10:11 AM

			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
CLE	East	100	18.3	26.8	20.0	15.9	80.9
BOS	East	100	23.8	30.1	19.7	13.9	87.4
NYK	East	99.7	9.9	18.2	17.9	17.2	63.2
MIL	East	96.3	5.5	10.8	13.9	14.0	44.3
IND	East	95.1	4.5	9.3	12.6	12.8	39.2
ORL	East	93.1	5.2	10.2	13.5	12.9	41.8
MIA	East	76.4	2.1	4.4	7.6	7.4	21.6
ATL	East	61.8	0.9	2.1	4.0	4.2	11.3
DET	East	51.6	0.5	1.3	2.6	2.8	7.2
CHI	East	13.6	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.2
PHI	East	11.4	0.2	0.3	0.7	0.8	2.0
CHA	East	0.4	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
BKN	East	0.3		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
TOR	East	0.2		<0.1	<0.1	<0.1	<0.1
WAS	East
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
OKC	West	100	26.8	31.6	19.1	12.6	90.0
MEM	West	99.5	10.4	18.5	18.2	17.4	64.5
HOU	West	99.4	8.4	16.6	16.6	17.0	58.6
DEN	West	98.0	6.2	12.6	14.6	15.6	49.1
LAC	West	87.7	3.7	7.9	11.2	11.3	34.1
DAL	West	85.7	5.1	9.6	13.1	11.9	39.7
MIN	West	71.8	3.2	6.4	9.5	8.6	27.7
SAC	West	59.7	1.9	4.0	6.3	6.3	18.5
GSW	West	44.0	1.0	2.2	3.8	3.7	10.6
LAL	West	27.4	0.3	0.7	1.3	1.4	3.7
PHX	West	20.5	0.2	0.5	1.0	1.2	3.0
SAS	West	6.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.7
POR	West	<0.1
NOP	West	<0.1
UTA	West
	Conf	Make	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win	in 4	in 5	in 6	in 7	Win
			Win Round 1					Win Conference Semifinals					Win Conference Finals					Win Finals

"Make" is the probability to make the playoffs including the results of the Play-in tournament.
"Win" is the probability to win the series in any number of games.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Projected Wins & Seed Probabilities

Updated Tuesday, January 21, 10:11 AM

	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
CLE	East	61.0			79.1	20.5
BOS	East	57.3			20.7	74.6
NYK	East	49.8			0.2	4.4
MIL	East	46.0			<0.1	0.2
IND	East	45.7			<0.1	0.2
ORL	East	44.8				0.1
MIA	East	42.1				<0.1
ATL	East	40.5				<0.1
DET	East	39.7				<0.1
CHI	East	35.0
PHI	East	33.7
CHA	East	28.5
BKN	East	28.5
TOR	East	27.3
WAS	East	18.5
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed
OKC	West	65.2			99.9	0.1
MEM	West	51.5			0.1	36.4
HOU	West	51.3			<0.1	42.2
DEN	West	49.5			<0.1	15.9
LAC	West	46.3				2.9
DAL	West	45.8				1.7
MIN	West	43.9				0.4
SAC	West	43.1				0.3
GSW	West	41.9				0.1
LAL	West	40.4				<0.1
PHX	West	39.4				<0.1
SAS	West	37.0				<0.1
POR	West	26.6
NOP	West	26.3
UTA	West	23.6
	Conf	Wins	Wins Low	Wins High	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	9 Seed	10 Seed	11 Seed	12 Seed	13 Seed	14 Seed	15 Seed

"Wins" is the average regular season win total across all simulations, with lows and highs representing 10th and 90th percentiles respectively.
Click on multiple table cells to sum probabilities (see top right of table).

Each stat that goes into the EPM model is predicted for each player and game given the player's history and context of the game, including opponent strength, home-court, etc. However, game context is not fully taken into account if the official playoff schedule has not yet been set for a given series.