FinalWin Prob.pScore
965%89
85
2735%85
88
ORTG#PossPace
DET logo DET
97.78781.2
MIA logo MIA
104.88490.4

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Scoring Margin

HeatPistonsQ1Q2Q3Q49:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:009:006:003:00

Play-by-Play

Score / WinProb
ClockTeamEventDETMIA
Q4 - 0:00.0DET85
0%
88
100%
Q4 - 0:04.0DETWallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:9)85
1.4%
88
98.6%
Q4 - 0:05.0MIAMISS Butler Free Throw 2 of 285
1.2%
88
98.8%
Q4 - 0:05.0MIAMISS Butler Free Throw 1 of 285
0.5%
88
99.5%
Q4 - 0:05.0MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)85
0.5%
88
99.5%
Q4 - 0:06.0DETMISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot85
2.8%
88
97.2%
Q4 - 0:17.0MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)85
12.9%
88
87.1%
Q4 - 0:17.0MIAButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)85
15.5%
87
84.5%
Q4 - 0:20.0DETBillups 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Barry 3 AST)85
24.2%
86
75.8%
Q4 - 0:30.0DETWallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:8)82
8.4%
86
91.6%
Q4 - 0:31.0MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 2 of 282
7.3%
86
92.7%
Q4 - 0:31.0MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 282
5.2%
86
94.8%
Q4 - 0:35.0MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)82
3.0%
86
97.0%
Q4 - 0:38.0DETMISS Billups 9' Running Jump Shot82
6.1%
86
93.9%
Q4 - 0:45.0MIAButler Foul Turnover (P3.T12)82
12.0%
86
88.0%
Q4 - 1:05DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 1 (24 PTS)82
8.3%
86
91.7%
Q4 - 1:05DETHamilton Driving Layup (23 PTS)81
4.7%
86
95.3%
Q4 - 1:13DETWallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:7)79
3.6%
86
96.4%
Q4 - 1:15MIAMISS Carter Free Throw 2 of 279
3.5%
86
96.5%
Q4 - 1:15MIAMISS Carter Free Throw 1 of 279
2.7%
86
97.3%
Q4 - 1:30MIAButler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)79
2.9%
86
97.1%
Q4 - 1:32DETMISS Wallace Tip Shot79
3.7%
86
96.3%
Q4 - 1:34DETWallace REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)79
5.7%
86
94.3%
Q4 - 1:36DETMISS Robinson 15' Running Jump Shot79
4.0%
86
96.0%
Q4 - 1:40MIAStepania Layup (10 PTS)79
6.1%
86
93.9%
Q4 - 1:41MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)79
9.3%
84
90.7%
Q4 - 1:42MIAMISS Butler 6' Jump Shot79
13.1%
84
86.9%
Q4 - 2:07MIAHEAT Rebound79
10.6%
84
89.4%
Q4 - 2:08DETMISS Billups 24' 3PT Jump Shot79
12.7%
84
87.3%
Q4 - 2:31MIAButler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS)79
19.7%
84
80.3%
Q4 - 2:55DETBillups Free Throw 2 of 2 (15 PTS)79
34.3%
81
65.7%
Q4 - 2:55DETBillups Free Throw 1 of 2 (14 PTS)78
33.1%
81
66.9%
Q4 - 3:03DETBarry REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)77
28.8%
81
71.2%
Q4 - 3:05MIAMISS Stepania 11' Jump Shot77
25.2%
81
74.8%
Q4 - 3:23MIAHEAT Rebound77
17.9%
81
82.1%
Q4 - 3:24DETMISS Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot77
20.9%
81
79.1%
Q4 - 3:27DETBarry REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)77
29.3%
81
70.7%
Q4 - 3:29DETButler BLOCK (1 BLK)77
20.9%
81
79.1%
Q4 - 3:46DETPistons Rebound77
31.5%
81
68.5%
Q4 - 3:49DETMISS Billups 24' 3PT Jump Shot77
25.9%
81
74.1%
Q4 - 4:02DETRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)77
31.1%
81
68.9%
Q4 - 4:04MIAMISS James 13' Jump Shot77
28.5%
81
71.5%
Q4 - 4:25MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)77
22.9%
81
77.1%
Q4 - 4:27DETMISS Hamilton 9' Jump Shot77
25.1%
81
74.9%
Q4 - 4:49MIAGrant Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T11)77
30.5%
81
69.5%
Q4 - 5:07DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (21 PTS)77
27.6%
81
72.4%
Q4 - 5:07DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (20 PTS)76
26.7%
81
73.3%
Q4 - 5:17MIAButler 8' Jump Shot (22 PTS)75
21.6%
81
78.4%
Q4 - 5:32DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)75
27.3%
79
72.7%
Q4 - 5:32DETMISS Hamilton Free Throw 1 of 274
26.5%
79
73.5%
Q4 - 5:41MIAHouse Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)74
27.6%
79
72.4%
Q4 - 5:41MIAMISS House Free Throw 1 of 274
28.5%
78
71.5%
Q4 - 5:55DETPistons Rebound74
27.2%
78
72.8%
Q4 - 5:55DETRobinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)74
27.2%
78
72.8%
Q4 - 5:55DETMISS Robinson Free Throw 1 of 273
25.5%
78
74.5%
Q4 - 6:10DETBarry REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)73
31.8%
78
68.2%
Q4 - 6:12DETMISS Barry 24' 3PT Jump Shot73
26.8%
78
73.2%
Q4 - 6:15DETWallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)73
31.8%
78
68.2%
Q4 - 6:17MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)73
24.7%
78
75.3%
Q4 - 6:17MIAMISS Stepania Tip Shot73
29.5%
78
70.5%
Q4 - 6:20MIAMISS Butler Reverse Layup73
29.4%
78
70.6%
Q4 - 6:38DETHamilton Driving Layup (18 PTS)73
24.6%
78
75.4%
Q4 - 7:02MIAJames 25' 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Grant 2 AST)71
24.0%
78
76.0%
Q4 - 7:25MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)71
34.4%
75
65.6%
Q4 - 7:27DETMISS Robinson 8' Hook Shot71
36.5%
75
63.5%
Q4 - 7:47MIAStepania Reverse Dunk (8 PTS) (James 4 AST)71
41.6%
75
58.4%
Q4 - 7:56DETButler STEAL (4 STL)71
47.5%
73
52.5%
Q4 - 8:13MIAJames Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)71
55.7%
73
44.3%
Q4 - 8:13MIAJames Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)71
57.0%
72
43.0%
Q4 - 8:22DETOkur 15' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Barry 2 AST)71
61.8%
71
38.2%
Q4 - 8:39DETOkur REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)69
55.7%
71
44.3%
Q4 - 8:41DETMISS Williamson 13' Jump Shot69
51.2%
71
48.8%
Q4 - 9:04MIAEllis Driving Layup (12 PTS)69
57.1%
71
42.9%
Q4 - 9:15DETButler STEAL (3 STL)69
62.5%
69
37.5%
Q4 - 9:41DETBarry REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)69
68.2%
69
31.8%
Q4 - 9:42DETMISS Okur 24' 3PT Jump Shot69
64.2%
69
35.8%
Q4 - 9:52DETAtkins REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)69
68.1%
69
31.9%
Q4 - 9:54MIAMISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot69
66.5%
69
33.5%
Q4 - 10:10DETAtkins 22' Jump Shot (7 PTS)69
62.4%
69
37.6%
Q4 - 10:32MIAEllis Running Layup (10 PTS) (Stepania 1 AST)67
57.4%
69
42.6%
Q4 - 10:35MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)67
62.4%
67
37.6%
Q4 - 10:37DETMISS Barry 19' Jump Shot67
64.2%
67
35.8%
Q4 - 10:57MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (20 PTS)67
68.0%
67
32.0%
Q4 - 10:57MIAButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (19 PTS)67
68.8%
66
31.2%
Q4 - 11:14DETWilliamson 12' Jump Shot (6 PTS)67
71.6%
65
28.4%
Q4 - 11:36MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)65
67.3%
65
32.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIA65
62.1%
65
37.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound65
62.1%
65
37.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0MIAMISS James 20' Jump Shot65
65.7%
65
34.3%
Q3 - 0:04.0DETBillups 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS)65
63.0%
65
37.0%
Q3 - 0:23.0MIAEllis 24' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Butler 4 AST)62
52.9%
65
47.1%
Q3 - 0:44.0DETWilliamson Layup (4 PTS) (Billups 1 AST)62
62.9%
62
37.1%
Q3 - 1:04MIAEllis 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (James 3 AST)60
59.0%
62
41.0%
Q3 - 1:16MIAButler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)60
67.9%
59
32.1%
Q3 - 1:18DETMISS Williamson Layup60
69.2%
59
30.8%
Q3 - 1:20DETWilliamson REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)60
72.1%
59
27.9%
Q3 - 1:22DETMISS Williamson 8' Hook Shot60
69.2%
59
30.8%
Q3 - 1:43MIAButler Running Dunk (18 PTS) (Carter 2 AST)60
72.1%
59
27.9%
Q3 - 1:51MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)60
75.8%
57
24.2%
Q3 - 1:53DETMISS Billups 16' Jump Shot60
76.9%
57
23.1%
Q3 - 2:04DETWallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)60
78.7%
57
21.3%
Q3 - 2:07MIAMISS Butler 12' Jump Shot60
77.6%
57
22.4%
Q3 - 2:21DETHamilton Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T11)60
75.1%
57
24.9%
Q3 - 2:26MIACarter Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T9)60
78.7%
57
21.3%
Q3 - 2:45MIAStepania REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)60
75.1%
57
24.9%
Q3 - 2:47MIAMISS Butler 8' Jump Shot60
77.7%
57
22.3%
Q3 - 3:02MIACarter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)60
75.1%
57
24.9%
Q3 - 3:05DETButler BLOCK (1 BLK)60
76.1%
57
23.9%
Q3 - 3:24DETHamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)60
78.5%
57
21.5%
Q3 - 3:26MIAMISS Butler Layup60
77.5%
57
22.5%
Q3 - 3:41DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)60
75.1%
57
24.9%
Q3 - 3:41DETHamilton 6' Running Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Robinson 3 AST)59
71.5%
57
28.5%
Q3 - 3:57DETWallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)57
68.0%
57
32.0%
Q3 - 3:59MIAMISS Carter Driving Layup57
66.7%
57
33.3%
Q3 - 4:10MIAHEAT Rebound57
63.8%
57
36.2%
Q3 - 4:11DETMISS Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot57
65.2%
57
34.8%
Q3 - 4:37MIAGrant 16' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Carter 1 AST)57
68.3%
57
31.7%
Q3 - 4:54MIAButler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)57
71.4%
55
28.6%
Q3 - 4:56DETMISS Robinson 12' Jump Shot57
72.6%
55
27.4%
Q3 - 5:21MIACarter 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS)57
75.0%
55
25.0%
Q3 - 5:29MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)57
77.8%
53
22.2%
Q3 - 5:31DETMISS Billups 25' 3PT Jump Shot57
78.7%
53
21.3%
Q3 - 5:45MIACarter Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T8)57
80.8%
53
19.2%
Q3 - 6:05MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)57
77.5%
53
22.5%
Q3 - 6:07DETStepania BLOCK (1 BLK)57
78.4%
53
21.6%
Q3 - 6:14DETHamilton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)57
80.4%
53
19.6%
Q3 - 6:16MIAMISS Butler Layup57
79.6%
53
20.4%
Q3 - 6:33DETBillups 12' Jump Shot (10 PTS)57
77.6%
53
22.4%
Q3 - 7:00MIAStepania Layup (6 PTS) (Butler 3 AST)55
74.9%
53
25.1%
Q3 - 7:05MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)55
76.8%
51
23.2%
Q3 - 7:07DETMISS Wallace Layup55
77.8%
51
22.2%
Q3 - 7:30MIAGrant 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Butler 2 AST)55
79.9%
51
20.1%
Q3 - 7:39MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)55
81.9%
49
18.1%
Q3 - 7:41DETMISS Wallace Tip Shot55
82.7%
49
17.3%
Q3 - 7:42DETWallace REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)55
84.4%
49
15.6%
Q3 - 7:44DETMISS Hamilton 15' Jump Shot55
82.7%
49
17.3%
Q3 - 8:07DETWallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)55
84.3%
49
15.7%
Q3 - 8:09MIAMISS Allen 12' Jump Shot55
83.6%
49
16.4%
Q3 - 8:18MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)55
81.9%
49
18.1%
Q3 - 8:20DETMISS Billups 7' Running Jump Shot55
82.7%
49
17.3%
Q3 - 8:37MIACarter 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS)55
84.3%
49
15.7%
Q3 - 9:04MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)55
85.8%
47
14.2%
Q3 - 9:05DETMISS Curry Free Throw 2 of 255
86.0%
47
14.0%
Q3 - 9:05DETCurry Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)55
87.1%
47
12.9%
Q3 - 9:08MIAButler Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7)54
85.8%
47
14.2%
Q3 - 9:22DETCurry Traveling Turnover (P1.T10)54
83.9%
47
16.1%
Q3 - 9:34DETBillups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)54
85.9%
47
14.1%
Q3 - 9:36MIAMISS Butler 25' 3PT Jump Shot54
85.3%
47
14.7%
Q3 - 9:50DETBillups 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Robinson 2 AST)54
83.9%
47
16.1%
Q3 - 10:03MIAGrant Foul Turnover (P2.T6)51
79.8%
47
20.2%
Q3 - 10:20MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)51
77.1%
47
22.9%
Q3 - 10:22DETMISS Billups 12' Running Jump Shot51
78.0%
47
22.0%
Q3 - 10:36MIAButler 15' Jump Shot (11 PTS)51
79.8%
47
20.2%
Q3 - 10:58DETPistons Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)51
81.7%
45
18.3%
Q3 - 10:58DETWallace REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)51
84.0%
45
16.0%
Q3 - 10:59DETAllen BLOCK (1 BLK)51
82.5%
45
17.5%
Q3 - 11:00DETBillups REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)51
84.0%
45
16.0%
Q3 - 11:02DETGrant BLOCK (1 BLK)51
82.6%
45
17.4%
Q3 - 11:23MIAButler 18' Jump Shot (16 PTS)51
84.0%
45
16.0%
Q3 - 11:49DETCarter STEAL (1 STL)51
85.7%
43
14.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIA51
87.4%
43
12.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAHEAT Rebound51
85.7%
43
14.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0MIAMISS Carter 59' 3PT Jump Shot51
86.9%
43
13.1%
Q2 - 0:01.0MIACarter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)51
85.6%
43
14.4%
Q2 - 0:03.0DETMISS Hamilton 16' Jump Shot51
85.9%
43
14.1%
Q2 - 0:16.0MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)51
86.7%
43
13.3%
Q2 - 0:16.0MIAButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)51
86.9%
42
13.1%
Q2 - 0:30.0MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)51
88.6%
41
11.4%
Q2 - 0:33.0DETMISS Okur 24' 3PT Jump Shot51
88.8%
41
11.2%
Q2 - 0:46.0MIAAllen 5' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)51
89.5%
41
10.5%
Q2 - 0:47.0MIAButler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)51
91.0%
39
9.0%
Q2 - 0:49.0MIAMISS Butler 7' Hook Shot51
91.5%
39
8.5%
Q2 - 1:09MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)51
90.7%
39
9.3%
Q2 - 1:11DETMISS Atkins 24' 3PT Jump Shot51
90.9%
39
9.1%
Q2 - 1:31DETOkur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)51
91.3%
39
8.7%
Q2 - 1:33MIAMISS Butler 3PT Jump Shot51
91.1%
39
8.9%
Q2 - 1:39DETButler STEAL (2 STL)51
90.7%
39
9.3%
Q2 - 1:45DETOkur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)51
91.3%
39
8.7%
Q2 - 1:47MIAMISS James 24' 3PT Jump Shot51
91.1%
39
8.9%
Q2 - 2:03MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)51
90.1%
39
9.9%
Q2 - 2:04DETMISS Hamilton 3PT Jump Shot51
90.4%
39
9.6%
Q2 - 2:19DETBarry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)51
91.1%
39
8.9%
Q2 - 2:21MIAMISS Butler 19' Jump Shot51
90.8%
39
9.2%
Q2 - 2:39DETAtkins 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Barry 1 AST)51
90.1%
39
9.9%
Q2 - 2:46DETRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)48
87.6%
39
12.4%
Q2 - 2:48MIAMISS Allen 17' Jump Shot48
87.2%
39
12.8%
Q2 - 2:56MIAButler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)48
86.3%
39
13.7%
Q2 - 2:58DETMISS Robinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot48
86.7%
39
13.3%
Q2 - 3:17MIAButler 5' Jump Shot (12 PTS)48
87.3%
39
12.7%
Q2 - 3:36DETRobinson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Atkins 3 AST)48
88.4%
37
11.6%
Q2 - 3:45MIAAllen Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)45
85.9%
37
14.1%
Q2 - 4:00DETRobinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Atkins 2 AST)45
84.2%
37
15.8%
Q2 - 4:22MIAButler 9' Hook Shot (10 PTS)42
80.7%
37
19.3%
Q2 - 4:44DETOkur 16' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Atkins 1 AST)42
82.4%
35
17.6%
Q2 - 5:00MIAHEAT Turnover: Shot Clock (T#4)40
80.7%
35
19.3%
Q2 - 5:00MIAHEAT Rebound40
78.8%
35
21.2%
Q2 - 5:00MIAMISS Carter 26' 3PT Jump Shot40
80.1%
35
19.9%
Q2 - 5:28DETRobinson 16' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Williamson 1 AST)40
78.7%
35
21.3%
Q2 - 5:37DETBarry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)38
76.9%
35
23.1%
Q2 - 5:39MIAMISS Carter Driving Layup38
76.3%
35
23.7%
Q2 - 5:48DETBarry 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Robinson 1 AST)38
74.7%
35
25.3%
Q2 - 6:11DETOkur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)35
70.8%
35
29.2%
Q2 - 6:13MIAMISS Lampley 18' Jump Shot35
69.9%
35
30.1%
Q2 - 6:29DETRobinson Driving Layup (9 PTS)35
67.9%
35
32.1%
Q2 - 6:46DETBarry REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)33
66.0%
35
34.0%
Q2 - 6:48DETMISS Okur 14' Jump Shot33
63.9%
35
36.1%
Q2 - 7:12MIAEllis Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)33
66.2%
35
33.8%
Q2 - 7:30DETOkur Tip Shot (2 PTS)33
63.6%
35
36.4%
Q2 - 7:32DETOkur REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)31
61.3%
35
38.7%
Q2 - 7:34DETMISS Robinson 6' Running Jump Shot31
59.4%
35
40.6%
Q2 - 7:43DETMISS Barry Free Throw Technical31
61.3%
35
38.7%
Q2 - 7:58DETOkur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)31
61.3%
35
38.7%
Q2 - 7:59MIAMISS Carter 19' Jump Shot31
60.5%
35
39.5%
Q2 - 8:14MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)31
58.6%
35
41.4%
Q2 - 8:15DETMISS Okur 19' Jump Shot31
59.4%
35
40.6%
Q2 - 8:39DETRobinson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
61.4%
35
38.6%
Q2 - 8:40MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 2 of 231
61.0%
35
39.0%
Q2 - 8:40MIAMISS Stepania Free Throw 1 of 231
59.9%
35
40.1%
Q2 - 8:51MIAEllis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)31
58.6%
35
41.4%
Q2 - 8:53DETMISS Williamson 16' Jump Shot31
59.4%
35
40.6%
Q2 - 9:19MIAStepania Dunk (4 PTS) (Butler 1 AST)31
61.7%
35
38.3%
Q2 - 9:45DETHamilton 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Okur 2 AST)31
63.8%
33
36.2%
Q2 - 10:09MIAJames Driving Layup (4 PTS)28
59.2%
33
40.8%
Q2 - 10:30DETAtkins 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Okur 1 AST)28
61.3%
31
38.7%
Q2 - 10:35DETOkur REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)26
59.2%
31
40.8%
Q2 - 10:36DETMISS Hamilton 3PT Jump Shot26
57.3%
31
42.7%
Q2 - 10:49DETOkur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)26
59.2%
31
40.8%
Q2 - 10:51MIAMISS Ellis 18' Jump Shot26
58.4%
31
41.6%
Q2 - 10:58DETStepania STEAL (1 STL)26
56.5%
31
43.5%
Q2 - 11:19MIAEllis 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (James 2 AST)26
59.5%
31
40.5%
Q2 - 11:30DETButler STEAL (2 STL)26
61.8%
29
38.2%
Q2 - 11:37DETOkur REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)26
64.0%
29
36.0%
Q2 - 11:39DETMISS Hamilton 16' Jump Shot26
62.5%
29
37.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0DET26
64.0%
29
36.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0DETPistons Rebound26
64.0%
29
36.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0DETMISS Billups 39' 3PT Jump Shot26
62.4%
29
37.6%
Q1 - 0:03.0MIAButler Driving Layup (8 PTS)26
63.8%
29
36.2%
Q1 - 0:19.0DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)26
66.4%
27
33.6%
Q1 - 0:19.0DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)25
66.2%
27
33.8%
Q1 - 0:35.0MIAStepania Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)24
63.8%
27
36.2%
Q1 - 0:35.0MIAStepania Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)24
64.7%
26
35.3%
Q1 - 0:45.0DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)24
66.5%
25
33.5%
Q1 - 0:45.0DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)23
66.2%
25
33.8%
Q1 - 0:54.0MIAGrant 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (James 1 AST)22
63.8%
25
36.2%
Q1 - 1:04DETGrant STEAL (1 STL)22
66.5%
23
33.5%
Q1 - 1:17DETPistons Rebound22
68.2%
23
31.8%
Q1 - 1:19DETMISS Okur 25' 3PT Jump Shot22
67.0%
23
33.0%
Q1 - 1:37DETBillups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)22
68.1%
23
31.9%
Q1 - 1:40MIAMISS Grant Layup22
67.7%
23
32.3%
Q1 - 1:58DETButler STEAL (1 STL)22
66.5%
23
33.5%
Q1 - 2:04MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)22
68.7%
23
31.3%
Q1 - 2:04MIAButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)22
69.1%
22
30.9%
Q1 - 2:22DETWilliamson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)22
70.7%
21
29.3%
Q1 - 2:22DETWilliamson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)21
70.4%
21
29.6%
Q1 - 2:38DETWallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)20
68.6%
21
31.4%
Q1 - 2:40MIAMISS Butler Layup20
68.0%
21
32.0%
Q1 - 2:55DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)20
66.7%
21
33.3%
Q1 - 2:55DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)19
66.4%
21
33.6%
Q1 - 3:08MIAButler Driving Layup (6 PTS)18
64.9%
21
35.1%
Q1 - 3:27MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)18
66.7%
19
33.3%
Q1 - 3:29DETMISS Robinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot18
67.4%
19
32.6%
Q1 - 3:52MIAButler Layup (7 PTS) (Grant 1 AST)18
68.9%
19
31.1%
Q1 - 4:07DETBillups Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)18
70.7%
17
29.3%
Q1 - 4:07DETBillups Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)17
70.5%
17
29.5%
Q1 - 4:07DETBillups Free Throw Technical (3 PTS)16
69.3%
17
30.7%
Q1 - 4:19MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)15
67.3%
17
32.7%
Q1 - 4:19MIAMISS Butler Free Throw 1 of 215
67.8%
16
32.2%
Q1 - 4:34DETPistons Turnover: Shot Clock (T#2)15
66.9%
16
33.1%
Q1 - 5:09MIAButler 10' Jump Shot (4 PTS)15
69.4%
16
30.6%
Q1 - 5:27MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)15
71.0%
14
29.0%
Q1 - 5:29DETMISS Robinson 20' Jump Shot15
71.6%
14
28.4%
Q1 - 5:48MIAJames 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Allen 1 AST)15
72.9%
14
27.1%
Q1 - 5:53MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)15
74.3%
12
25.7%
Q1 - 5:55MIAMISS Grant Driving Layup15
75.6%
12
24.4%
Q1 - 6:15DETRobinson 7' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Hamilton 1 AST)15
74.2%
12
25.8%
Q1 - 6:29MIAButler 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS)13
72.7%
12
27.3%
Q1 - 6:46DETBillups Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)13
74.2%
10
25.8%
Q1 - 6:46DETBillups Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)12
74.0%
10
26.0%
Q1 - 7:09MIAAllen 8' Jump Shot (4 PTS)11
72.8%
10
27.2%
Q1 - 7:26MIAButler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)11
74.1%
8
25.9%
Q1 - 7:28DETMISS Robinson 18' Jump Shot11
74.6%
8
25.4%
Q1 - 7:32MIAButler Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)11
75.7%
8
24.3%
Q1 - 7:37MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)11
74.1%
8
25.9%
Q1 - 7:39DETMISS Curry 21' Jump Shot11
74.6%
8
25.4%
Q1 - 7:54MIAButler Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)11
75.7%
8
24.3%
Q1 - 7:54MIAButler Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)11
75.9%
7
24.1%
Q1 - 7:55MIAGrant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)11
77.0%
6
23.0%
Q1 - 7:57MIAMISS Butler 20' Jump Shot11
78.0%
6
22.0%
Q1 - 8:11DETRobinson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Curry 1 AST)11
77.4%
6
22.6%
Q1 - 8:33MIAButler Layup (2 PTS)8
74.8%
6
25.2%
Q1 - 8:35MIAButler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)8
76.0%
4
24.0%
Q1 - 8:37MIAMISS Allen 18' Jump Shot8
77.1%
4
22.9%
Q1 - 8:50DETHamilton Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)8
76.0%
4
24.0%
Q1 - 8:50DETHamilton Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)7
75.8%
4
24.2%
Q1 - 8:52DETBillups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)6
74.8%
4
25.2%
Q1 - 8:54MIAMISS Butler 13' Jump Shot6
74.3%
4
25.7%
Q1 - 9:07MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
72.9%
4
27.1%
Q1 - 9:09DETMISS Billups 21' Jump Shot6
73.5%
4
26.5%
Q1 - 9:35MIACarter Driving Layup (2 PTS)6
74.8%
4
25.2%
Q1 - 9:49MIAButler REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
75.8%
2
24.2%
Q1 - 9:51DETMISS Billups 19' Jump Shot6
76.4%
2
23.6%
Q1 - 9:54DETCurry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)6
77.6%
2
22.4%
Q1 - 9:56MIAMISS Allen Tip Shot6
77.0%
2
23.0%
Q1 - 9:58MIAAllen REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)6
75.9%
2
24.1%
Q1 - 10:00MIAMISS Butler 13' Jump Shot6
77.1%
2
22.9%
Q1 - 10:22DETRobinson Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)6
75.8%
2
24.2%
Q1 - 10:22DETRobinson Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)5
75.5%
2
24.5%
Q1 - 10:29DETBillups REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)4
74.6%
2
25.4%
Q1 - 10:31MIAMISS Grant 10' Jump Shot4
74.1%
2
25.9%
Q1 - 10:40DETHamilton 9' Jump Shot (2 PTS)4
73.0%
2
27.0%
Q1 - 10:46DETWallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)2
71.7%
2
28.3%
Q1 - 10:48MIAMISS Carter Running Layup2
71.2%
2
28.8%
Q1 - 10:53DETButler STEAL (1 STL)2
69.9%
2
30.1%
Q1 - 11:06MIAGrant Out Of Bounds Turnover (P1.T1)2
71.6%
2
28.4%
Q1 - 11:20DETCurry Driving Layup (2 PTS)2
70.2%
2
29.8%
Q1 - 11:43MIAAllen 8' Hook Shot (2 PTS)0
68.5%
2
31.5%
Q1 - 12:00MIAJump Ball Grant vs. Wallace: Tip to Butler0
70.2%
0
29.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DET
0.91 45.7%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)
DET
6
13
46%
MIA
15
26
58%
Midrange
DET
10
35
29%
MIA
15
33
45%
3PT | Effective 3PT
DET
9
13.5
26
35%
52%
MIA
4
6.0
10
40%
60%
Free Throws
DET
26
30
87%
MIA
16
26
62%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency
Misses
Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

|
DET logo Pistons
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
R. Hamilton2455%12.0 / 22
C. Robinson1847%9.0 / 19
C. Billups1847%9.0 / 19
C. Atkins788%3.5 / 4
C. Williamson643%3.0 / 7
M. Okur638%3.0 / 8
M. Curry350%1.5 / 3
J. Barry338%1.5 / 4
B. Wallace0-0.0 / 3
TS Makes
TS Misses

Total Points

|
MIA logo Heat
PLAYERPTSTS%TSM / TSA
C. Butler2265%11.0 / 17
R. Butler1647%8.0 / 17
L. Ellis12100%6.0 / 6
V. Stepania1056%5.0 / 9
M. James956%4.5 / 8
B. Grant650%3.0 / 6
A. Carter630%3.0 / 10
M. Allen643%3.0 / 7
E. House150%0.5 / 1
S. Lampley0-0.0 / 1
TS Makes
TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

DET
76
+18
-11
94
MIA
74
+11
-10
85
Base
ORB
TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET
0.91 45.7%
MIA
1.02 51.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Efficiency & PaceThis Game
Efficiency
100.9
94.5
DET 97.7 +7.1
MIA 104.8
Pace
89.6
90.0
DET 81.2
MIA 90.4 +9.2
Avg. Poss. Time
16.5
16.2
DET 17.7
MIA 15.9 +1.8
Four FactorsThis Game
EFG %
47.3%
43.9%
DET 39.9%
MIA 52.2% +12.3%
TO %
14.0%
14.8%
DET 13.0%
MIA 13.0%
ORB %
26.0%
26.8%
DET 30.2% +8.0%
MIA 22.2%
FTrt
32.2
25.9
DET 40.5 +2.8
MIA 37.7
Misc. StatsThis Game
AST %
60.0%
55.8%
DET 60.0% +15.9%
MIA 44.1%
STL %
7.5%
7.9%
DET 4.6%
MIA 10.7% +6.1%
BLK %
8.6%
6.4%
DET 6.8%
MIA 10.4% +3.6%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg

Game Stats
Shooting EfficiencyThis Game
TS%
49.6%
46.0%
DET 45.7%
MIA 51.2% +5.5%
Rim FG%
55.0%
53.7%
DET 46.2%
MIA 57.7% +11.5%
Mid FG%
38.8%
37.6%
DET 28.6%
MIA 45.5% +16.9%
3P %
35.8%
31.6%
DET 34.6%
MIA 40.0% +5.4%
FT %
77.1%
76.5%
DET 86.7% +25.2%
MIA 61.5%
Shot DistributionThis Game
Rim Att. %
30.4%
28.9%
DET 17.6%
MIA 37.7% +20.1%
Mid Att. %
45.9%
54.2%
DET 47.3% +0.5%
MIA 47.8%
3P Att. %
23.7%
16.9%
DET 35.1% +20.6%
MIA 14.5%
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.
Game TotalsDETMIA
Possessions8784
Possession Minutes25.722.3
Points8588
Rebounds4138
Assists1515
Steals49
Blocks45
Turnovers (Team)11 (2)10 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)13 (5)8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)28 (0)30 (3)
Field Goals25-7434-69
At-the-Rim FG6-1315-26
Midrange FG10-3515-33
2-Point FG16-4830-59
3-Point FG9-264-10
Free Throws26-3016-26
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
C · 6'10" 245 · 36
38.9
18
47%
3
3
0
1
2
2
0
3
3-4
75%
3-10
30%
3-7
43%
G · 6'7" 193 · 25
38.0
24
55%
2
1
0
0
2
4
0
2
13-14
93%
4-11
36%
1-3
33%
F · 6'9" 240 · 28
37.0
0
0%
12
0
0
3
1
3
3
9
0-0
-
0-3
0%
0-0
-
G · 6'3" 210 · 26
30.1
18
47%
5
1
1
0
0
3
1
4
7-7
100%
1-8
13%
3-8
38%
F · 6'5" 210 · 34
16.3
3
50%
1
1
1
0
1
3
0
1
1-2
50%
1-2
50%
0-0
-
G · 6'5" 210 · 33
21.4
3
38%
7
3
0
0
0
1
4
3
0-1
0%
0-1
0%
1-3
33%
F · 6'7" 245 · 29
20.3
6
43%
1
1
2
0
3
2
1
0
2-2
100%
2-6
33%
0-0
-
C · 6'11" 260 · 24
20.0
6
38%
9
2
0
0
1
3
4
5
0-0
-
3-5
60%
0-3
0%
G · 5'11" 185 · 28
17.9
7
88%
1
3
0
0
1
3
0
1
0-0
-
2-2
100%
1-2
50%
G · 6'5" 183 · 33
F · 6'9" 212 · 23
G · 6'4" 195 · 26
PLAYER MIN PTS TS% REB AST STL BLK TOV PF ORB DRB FT FT% 2P 2P% 3P 3P%
TOTAL
240
85
46%
41
15
4
4
11
0
13
28
26-30
87%
16-48
33%
9-26
35%
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.