| ORTG | #Poss | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ORL | 94.7 | 94 | 96.6 |
 MIA | 105.3 | 95 | 92.5 |
Scoring Opportunities
ORL
78
+8
-16
86
MIA
88
+17
-7
105
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
ORL
1.03 51.7%
MIA
0.94 47.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS
Win Probability
Scoring Margin
Play-by-Play
| Score / WinProb | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clock | Team | Event | ORL | MIA |
| Q4 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 89 0% | 100 100% | |
| Q4 - 0:20.0 | ORL | Penigar 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 89 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:31.0 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS) | 87 0.1% | 100 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:31.0 | MIA | MISS Alston Free Throw 1 of 2 | 87 0.1% | 99 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:31.0 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 87 0.1% | 99 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:32.0 | ORL | MISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 87 0.1% | 99 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:38.0 | MIA | Butler Layup (19 PTS) (Jones 3 AST) | 87 0.1% | 99 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:43.0 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:2 Def:11) | 87 0.1% | 97 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:45.0 | ORL | MISS Howard 4' Jump Shot | 87 0.1% | 97 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:48.0 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS) | 87 0.1% | 97 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:48.0 | MIA | Alston Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS) | 87 0.1% | 96 99.9% |
| Q4 - 0:49.0 | ORL | McGrady Free Throw 3 of 3 (26 PTS) | 87 0.2% | 95 99.8% |
| Q4 - 0:49.0 | ORL | McGrady Free Throw 2 of 3 (25 PTS) | 86 0.2% | 95 99.8% |
| Q4 - 0:49.0 | ORL | McGrady Free Throw 1 of 3 (24 PTS) | 85 0.2% | 95 99.8% |
| Q4 - 0:58.0 | MIA | Butler 25' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Alston 5 AST) | 84 0.1% | 95 99.9% |
| Q4 - 1:16 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10) | 84 0.4% | 92 99.6% |
| Q4 - 1:18 | ORL | MISS McGrady 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 84 0.6% | 92 99.4% |
| Q4 - 1:28 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9) | 84 1.0% | 92 99.0% |
| Q4 - 1:30 | MIA | MISS Jones 16' Fadeaway Jumper | 84 0.9% | 92 99.1% |
| Q4 - 1:50 | ORL | McGrady 20' Jump Shot (23 PTS) (Lue 7 AST) | 84 0.9% | 92 99.1% |
| Q4 - 1:59 | ORL | Rooks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 82 0.5% | 92 99.5% |
| Q4 - 2:01 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0) | 82 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 2:01 | MIA | MISS Butler 21' Jump Shot | 82 0.5% | 92 99.5% |
| Q4 - 2:16 | MIA | MISS Odom Dunk | 82 0.5% | 92 99.5% |
| Q4 - 2:17 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9) | 82 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 2:19 | MIA | MISS Alston 6' Running Jump Shot | 82 0.5% | 92 99.5% |
| Q4 - 2:35 | ORL | Magic Turnover: Shot Clock (T#17) | 82 0.3% | 92 99.7% |
| Q4 - 2:35 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 82 0.7% | 92 99.3% |
| Q4 - 2:36 | ORL | MISS Lue 20' Jump Shot | 82 0.4% | 92 99.6% |
| Q4 - 3:00 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 1 of 1 (9 PTS) | 82 0.9% | 92 99.1% |
| Q4 - 3:00 | MIA | Haslem 12' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Jones 2 AST) | 82 1.4% | 91 98.6% |
| Q4 - 3:21 | ORL | McGrady 16' Turnaround Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Lue 6 AST) | 82 1.8% | 89 98.2% |
| Q4 - 3:31 | MIA | Odom Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T7) | 80 2.3% | 89 97.7% |
| Q4 - 3:49 | ORL | Alston STEAL (3 STL) | 80 1.4% | 89 98.6% |
| Q4 - 4:00 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8) | 80 2.1% | 89 97.9% |
| Q4 - 4:02 | ORL | MISS Lue 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 80 1.6% | 89 98.4% |
| Q4 - 4:19 | MIA | Wade Running Dunk (9 PTS) (Alston 4 AST) | 80 2.0% | 89 98.0% |
| Q4 - 4:23 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 80 2.8% | 87 97.2% |
| Q4 - 4:25 | ORL | MISS McGrady 19' Jump Shot | 80 3.2% | 87 96.8% |
| Q4 - 4:36 | ORL | Rooks REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 80 4.1% | 87 95.9% |
| Q4 - 4:38 | MIA | MISS Alston 18' Jump Shot | 80 3.7% | 87 96.3% |
| Q4 - 4:49 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3) | 80 2.8% | 87 97.2% |
| Q4 - 4:51 | ORL | MISS Rooks 12' Jump Shot | 80 3.1% | 87 96.9% |
| Q4 - 5:05 | MIA | Butler 11' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS) | 80 5.2% | 87 94.8% |
| Q4 - 5:17 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2) | 80 6.9% | 85 93.1% |
| Q4 - 5:19 | ORL | MISS McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 80 7.6% | 85 92.4% |
| Q4 - 5:24 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6) | 80 9.5% | 85 90.5% |
| Q4 - 5:26 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 80 7.6% | 85 92.4% |
| Q4 - 5:28 | ORL | Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 80 9.5% | 85 90.5% |
| Q4 - 5:30 | ORL | Alston BLOCK (2 BLK) | 80 7.6% | 85 92.4% |
| Q4 - 5:51 | MIA | Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T6) | 80 9.5% | 85 90.5% |
| Q4 - 6:13 | ORL | DeClercq Poss Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T15) | 80 7.6% | 85 92.4% |
| Q4 - 6:27 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 80 10.5% | 85 89.5% |
| Q4 - 6:28 | ORL | Alston BLOCK (1 BLK) | 80 8.4% | 85 91.6% |
| Q4 - 6:29 | ORL | Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 80 10.5% | 85 89.5% |
| Q4 - 6:30 | MIA | MISS Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 80 9.5% | 85 90.5% |
| Q4 - 6:48 | ORL | Stevenson Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T14) | 80 7.6% | 85 92.4% |
| Q4 - 6:58 | ORL | Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 80 10.4% | 85 89.6% |
| Q4 - 7:00 | MIA | MISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 80 9.5% | 85 90.5% |
| Q4 - 7:22 | ORL | Stevenson 20' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Lue 5 AST) | 80 8.6% | 85 91.4% |
| Q4 - 7:37 | MIA | Butler Layup (12 PTS) | 78 6.9% | 85 93.1% |
| Q4 - 7:38 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 78 8.6% | 83 91.4% |
| Q4 - 7:40 | MIA | MISS Butler Driving Layup | 78 10.4% | 83 89.6% |
| Q4 - 7:46 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:9) | 78 8.6% | 83 91.4% |
| Q4 - 7:51 | ORL | MISS DeClercq 9' Hook Shot | 78 9.3% | 83 90.7% |
| Q4 - 8:05 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 78 12.2% | 83 87.8% |
| Q4 - 8:07 | MIA | MISS Haslem Layup | 78 11.3% | 83 88.7% |
| Q4 - 8:33 | ORL | Rooks 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Bogans 2 AST) | 78 9.6% | 83 90.4% |
| Q4 - 8:55 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS) | 76 7.6% | 83 92.4% |
| Q4 - 8:55 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS) | 76 8.0% | 82 92.0% |
| Q4 - 9:06 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 76 10.1% | 81 89.9% |
| Q4 - 9:07 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 76 10.8% | 81 89.2% |
| Q4 - 9:30 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8) | 76 12.6% | 81 87.4% |
| Q4 - 9:32 | MIA | MISS Wade 19' Jump Shot | 76 11.8% | 81 88.2% |
| Q4 - 9:44 | ORL | Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS) | 76 10.1% | 81 89.9% |
| Q4 - 9:44 | ORL | Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (23 PTS) | 75 9.7% | 81 90.3% |
| Q4 - 10:00 | MIA | Haslem Layup (6 PTS) (Wade 2 AST) | 74 8.2% | 81 91.8% |
| Q4 - 10:16 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1) | 74 10.7% | 79 89.3% |
| Q4 - 10:17 | MIA | MISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 74 12.4% | 79 87.6% |
| Q4 - 10:21 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 74 10.6% | 79 89.4% |
| Q4 - 10:23 | MIA | MISS Alston Finger Roll | 74 12.4% | 79 87.6% |
| Q4 - 10:38 | ORL | Howard Free Throw 2 of 2 (22 PTS) | 74 10.6% | 79 89.4% |
| Q4 - 10:38 | ORL | Howard Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS) | 73 10.2% | 79 89.8% |
| Q4 - 10:56 | MIA | Butler 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Alston 3 AST) | 72 8.8% | 79 91.2% |
| Q4 - 11:19 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 72 13.7% | 76 86.3% |
| Q4 - 11:21 | ORL | MISS McGrady 21' Jump Shot | 72 14.5% | 76 85.5% |
| Q4 - 11:46 | MIA | Butler Layup (7 PTS) (Wade 1 AST) | 72 16.6% | 76 83.4% |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | 72 19.6% | 74 80.4% | |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 72 19.6% | 74 80.4% |
| Q3 - 0:00.0 | MIA | MISS Alston Driving Layup | 72 22.3% | 74 77.7% |
| Q3 - 0:06.0 | ORL | Howard Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13) | 72 19.9% | 74 80.1% |
| Q3 - 0:21.0 | MIA | Jones Dunk (19 PTS) | 72 23.4% | 74 76.6% |
| Q3 - 0:23.0 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3) | 72 27.3% | 72 72.7% |
| Q3 - 0:26.0 | MIA | MISS Wade Running Dunk | 72 30.2% | 72 69.8% |
| Q3 - 0:31.0 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8) | 72 27.3% | 72 72.7% |
| Q3 - 0:33.0 | ORL | MISS Lue Driving Layup | 72 28.6% | 72 71.4% |
| Q3 - 0:52.0 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7) | 72 31.6% | 72 68.4% |
| Q3 - 0:54.0 | MIA | MISS Alston 17' Jump Shot | 72 30.2% | 72 69.8% |
| Q3 - 1:19 | ORL | Hunter Dunk (5 PTS) (Howard 2 AST) | 72 26.9% | 72 73.1% |
| Q3 - 1:40 | MIA | Grant 9' Jump Bank Shot (16 PTS) | 70 23.3% | 72 76.7% |
| Q3 - 2:07 | ORL | Howard 9' Jump Shot (20 PTS) (McGrady 8 AST) | 70 26.2% | 70 73.8% |
| Q3 - 2:25 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7) | 68 23.1% | 70 76.9% |
| Q3 - 2:27 | MIA | MISS Wade 7' Jump Shot | 68 22.0% | 70 78.0% |
| Q3 - 2:50 | ORL | Lue Driving Layup (4 PTS) | 68 19.7% | 70 80.3% |
| Q3 - 3:04 | ORL | McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 66 17.5% | 70 82.5% |
| Q3 - 3:06 | MIA | MISS Grant Layup | 66 16.6% | 70 83.4% |
| Q3 - 3:16 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7) | 66 14.9% | 70 85.1% |
| Q3 - 3:18 | ORL | MISS Howard 19' Jump Shot | 66 15.6% | 70 84.4% |
| Q3 - 3:33 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6) | 66 17.4% | 70 82.6% |
| Q3 - 3:35 | MIA | MISS Wade Driving Layup | 66 16.6% | 70 83.4% |
| Q3 - 3:50 | MIA | Jump Ball Jones vs. Howard: Tip to Odom | 66 14.8% | 70 85.2% |
| Q3 - 4:05 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS) | 66 17.5% | 70 82.5% |
| Q3 - 4:05 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS) | 66 18.0% | 69 82.0% |
| Q3 - 4:06 | ORL | Wade STEAL (2 STL) | 66 19.7% | 68 80.3% |
| Q3 - 4:18 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 66 23.0% | 68 77.0% |
| Q3 - 4:19 | MIA | MISS Jones Reverse Layup | 66 22.0% | 68 78.0% |
| Q3 - 4:39 | ORL | Howard 18' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Stevenson 3 AST) | 66 19.7% | 68 80.3% |
| Q3 - 4:45 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 64 17.5% | 68 82.5% |
| Q3 - 4:47 | MIA | MISS Odom Reverse Layup | 64 16.6% | 68 83.4% |
| Q3 - 5:14 | ORL | Hunter Dunk (3 PTS) (McGrady 7 AST) | 64 15.2% | 68 84.8% |
| Q3 - 5:26 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 1 (14 PTS) | 62 13.3% | 68 86.7% |
| Q3 - 5:26 | MIA | Odom Driving Layup (13 PTS) | 62 15.3% | 67 84.7% |
| Q3 - 5:53 | ORL | McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS) (Stevenson 2 AST) | 62 17.4% | 65 82.6% |
| Q3 - 5:59 | ORL | Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 59 13.2% | 65 86.8% |
| Q3 - 6:01 | MIA | MISS Grant 15' Jump Shot | 59 12.8% | 65 87.2% |
| Q3 - 6:22 | ORL | Stevenson 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (McGrady 6 AST) | 59 11.6% | 65 88.4% |
| Q3 - 6:30 | ORL | McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 56 8.8% | 65 91.2% |
| Q3 - 6:32 | MIA | MISS Alston 3PT Jump Shot | 56 8.3% | 65 91.7% |
| Q3 - 6:42 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6) | 56 7.5% | 65 92.5% |
| Q3 - 6:44 | ORL | MISS McGrady 20' Jump Shot | 56 7.8% | 65 92.2% |
| Q3 - 6:56 | MIA | Grant Layup (14 PTS) (Jones 1 AST) | 56 8.7% | 65 91.3% |
| Q3 - 7:08 | ORL | McGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T10) | 56 10.2% | 63 89.8% |
| Q3 - 7:25 | MIA | Jones Free Throw 1 of 1 (17 PTS) | 56 11.9% | 63 88.1% |
| Q3 - 7:25 | MIA | Jones Driving Layup (16 PTS) | 56 13.7% | 62 86.3% |
| Q3 - 7:45 | ORL | Stevenson 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Lue 4 AST) | 56 15.3% | 60 84.7% |
| Q3 - 8:07 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 53 12.1% | 60 87.9% |
| Q3 - 8:09 | MIA | MISS Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 | 53 11.9% | 60 88.1% |
| Q3 - 8:09 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS) | 53 10.9% | 60 89.1% |
| Q3 - 8:10 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5) | 53 11.9% | 59 88.1% |
| Q3 - 8:11 | ORL | Grant BLOCK (2 BLK) | 53 12.4% | 59 87.6% |
| Q3 - 8:28 | MIA | Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) | 53 13.8% | 59 86.2% |
| Q3 - 8:42 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 53 17.5% | 56 82.5% |
| Q3 - 8:43 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 19' Jump Shot | 53 18.3% | 56 81.7% |
| Q3 - 8:49 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 53 20.1% | 56 79.9% |
| Q3 - 8:50 | MIA | MISS Alston 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 53 19.3% | 56 80.7% |
| Q3 - 9:11 | ORL | Lue Layup (2 PTS) (McGrady 5 AST) | 53 17.4% | 56 82.6% |
| Q3 - 9:16 | MIA | Grant Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5) | 51 15.4% | 56 84.6% |
| Q3 - 9:22 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6) | 51 13.6% | 56 86.4% |
| Q3 - 9:24 | ORL | MISS Howard 19' Jump Shot | 51 14.1% | 56 85.9% |
| Q3 - 9:42 | MIA | Odom Traveling Turnover (P1.T4) | 51 15.5% | 56 84.5% |
| Q3 - 9:57 | ORL | Stevenson 6' Running Jump Shot (10 PTS) | 51 13.6% | 56 86.4% |
| Q3 - 10:21 | MIA | Jones 20' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Butler 1 AST) | 49 12.1% | 56 87.9% |
| Q3 - 10:50 | ORL | McGrady 18' Jump Shot (16 PTS) | 49 13.5% | 54 86.5% |
| Q3 - 10:57 | ORL | McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 47 12.1% | 54 87.9% |
| Q3 - 10:59 | MIA | MISS Odom 5' Running Hook Shot | 47 11.6% | 54 88.4% |
| Q3 - 11:12 | ORL | Howard Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9) | 47 10.6% | 54 89.4% |
| Q3 - 11:28 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5) | 47 12.1% | 54 87.9% |
| Q3 - 11:30 | MIA | MISS Jones 9' Jump Shot | 47 11.6% | 54 88.4% |
| Q3 - 11:40 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5) | 47 10.6% | 54 89.4% |
| Q3 - 11:42 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 17' Jump Shot | 47 11.0% | 54 89.0% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | ORL | 47 12.1% | 54 87.9% | |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 47 12.1% | 54 87.9% |
| Q2 - 0:00.0 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 47 11.0% | 54 89.0% |
| Q2 - 0:13.0 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6) | 47 12.2% | 54 87.8% |
| Q2 - 0:14.0 | MIA | MISS Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 | 47 12.1% | 54 87.9% |
| Q2 - 0:14.0 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS) | 47 11.1% | 54 88.9% |
| Q2 - 0:24.0 | MIA | Jones Free Throw Technical (9 PTS) | 47 12.6% | 53 87.4% |
| Q2 - 0:29.0 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4) | 47 14.1% | 52 85.9% |
| Q2 - 0:30.0 | ORL | MISS Stevenson 15' Jump Shot | 47 14.5% | 52 85.5% |
| Q2 - 0:55.0 | MIA | Odom Driving Layup (9 PTS) | 47 15.3% | 52 84.7% |
| Q2 - 1:21 | ORL | McGrady 25' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) | 47 18.1% | 50 81.9% |
| Q2 - 1:31 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5) | 44 13.8% | 50 86.2% |
| Q2 - 1:33 | MIA | MISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 44 13.6% | 50 86.4% |
| Q2 - 1:53 | ORL | Howard 19' Jump Shot (16 PTS) (McGrady 4 AST) | 44 13.0% | 50 87.0% |
| Q2 - 2:07 | MIA | Butler 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Alston 2 AST) | 42 11.5% | 50 88.5% |
| Q2 - 2:24 | ORL | Stevenson 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS) | 42 12.9% | 48 87.1% |
| Q2 - 2:33 | ORL | Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 40 11.5% | 48 88.5% |
| Q2 - 2:35 | MIA | MISS Jones 6' Running Hook Shot | 40 11.1% | 48 88.9% |
| Q2 - 2:49 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1) | 40 10.4% | 48 89.6% |
| Q2 - 2:51 | ORL | Jones BLOCK (1 BLK) | 40 10.7% | 48 89.3% |
| Q2 - 3:01 | MIA | Grant Layup (12 PTS) | 40 11.9% | 48 88.1% |
| Q2 - 3:03 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3) | 40 13.0% | 46 87.0% |
| Q2 - 3:05 | MIA | MISS Grant Layup | 40 14.1% | 46 85.9% |
| Q2 - 3:07 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3) | 40 13.0% | 46 87.0% |
| Q2 - 3:09 | MIA | MISS Grant Layup | 40 14.1% | 46 85.9% |
| Q2 - 3:23 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3) | 40 13.0% | 46 87.0% |
| Q2 - 3:25 | ORL | MISS Lue 19' Jump Shot | 40 13.5% | 46 86.5% |
| Q2 - 3:32 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 40 14.6% | 46 85.4% |
| Q2 - 3:34 | ORL | MISS Lue 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 40 13.4% | 46 86.6% |
| Q2 - 3:48 | ORL | Stevenson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 40 14.6% | 46 85.4% |
| Q2 - 3:50 | MIA | MISS Grant 20' Jump Shot | 40 14.1% | 46 85.9% |
| Q2 - 4:09 | ORL | Stevenson Layup (6 PTS) (Howard 1 AST) | 40 13.2% | 46 86.8% |
| Q2 - 4:18 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 38 11.9% | 46 88.1% |
| Q2 - 4:20 | MIA | MISS Butler 16' Turnaround Jump Shot | 38 11.5% | 46 88.5% |
| Q2 - 4:42 | ORL | Howard 19' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (McGrady 3 AST) | 38 10.7% | 46 89.3% |
| Q2 - 4:55 | MIA | Grant Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS) | 36 9.7% | 46 90.3% |
| Q2 - 4:55 | MIA | Grant Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS) | 36 9.9% | 45 90.1% |
| Q2 - 5:02 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2) | 36 10.8% | 44 89.2% |
| Q2 - 5:04 | ORL | MISS Hunter 6' Hook Shot | 36 11.1% | 44 88.9% |
| Q2 - 5:17 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 36 12.0% | 44 88.0% |
| Q2 - 5:19 | MIA | MISS Grant 18' Jump Shot | 36 11.6% | 44 88.4% |
| Q2 - 5:31 | ORL | Hunter Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 36 10.8% | 44 89.2% |
| Q2 - 5:31 | ORL | MISS Hunter Free Throw 1 of 2 | 35 10.2% | 44 89.8% |
| Q2 - 5:43 | MIA | Alston 5' Jump Shot (5 PTS) | 35 10.8% | 44 89.2% |
| Q2 - 5:46 | ORL | Alston STEAL (2 STL) | 35 11.9% | 42 88.1% |
| Q2 - 5:49 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 35 13.2% | 42 86.8% |
| Q2 - 5:50 | MIA | MISS Alston Driving Layup | 35 12.8% | 42 87.2% |
| Q2 - 6:06 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0) | 35 12.0% | 42 88.0% |
| Q2 - 6:08 | MIA | MISS Grant 19' Jump Shot | 35 13.0% | 42 87.0% |
| Q2 - 6:32 | ORL | Howard 9' Turnaround Jump Shot (12 PTS) | 35 12.0% | 42 88.0% |
| Q2 - 6:49 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 33 11.1% | 42 88.9% |
| Q2 - 6:49 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 33 11.3% | 41 88.7% |
| Q2 - 6:59 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 33 12.0% | 40 88.0% |
| Q2 - 7:01 | ORL | MISS McGrady 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 33 12.8% | 40 87.2% |
| Q2 - 7:07 | ORL | Hunter REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 33 13.7% | 40 86.3% |
| Q2 - 7:09 | MIA | MISS Haslem Driving Layup | 33 13.3% | 40 86.7% |
| Q2 - 7:16 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0) | 33 12.4% | 40 87.6% |
| Q2 - 7:17 | MIA | MISS Butler 20' Jump Shot | 33 13.3% | 40 86.7% |
| Q2 - 7:34 | MIA | HEAT Rebound | 33 12.4% | 40 87.6% |
| Q2 - 7:36 | ORL | MISS McGrady 20' Jump Shot | 33 12.8% | 40 87.2% |
| Q2 - 7:54 | MIA | Grant Dunk (8 PTS) (Butler 1 AST) | 33 13.7% | 40 86.3% |
| Q2 - 8:08 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 33 14.9% | 38 85.1% |
| Q2 - 8:10 | ORL | MISS Rooks 19' Jump Shot | 33 15.3% | 38 84.7% |
| Q2 - 8:21 | MIA | Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T3) | 33 16.4% | 38 83.6% |
| Q2 - 8:50 | ORL | Stevenson Driving Layup (4 PTS) | 33 14.9% | 38 85.1% |
| Q2 - 8:54 | ORL | Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 31 13.8% | 38 86.2% |
| Q2 - 8:56 | MIA | MISS Butler 3PT Jump Shot | 31 13.4% | 38 86.6% |
| Q2 - 9:10 | ORL | Rooks Free Throw 1 of 1 (5 PTS) | 31 12.5% | 38 87.5% |
| Q2 - 9:10 | ORL | Rooks Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Bogans 1 AST) | 30 11.5% | 38 88.5% |
| Q2 - 9:28 | MIA | Wade Dunk (5 PTS) (Odom 4 AST) | 28 10.6% | 38 89.4% |
| Q2 - 9:33 | ORL | Odom STEAL (2 STL) | 28 11.5% | 36 88.5% |
| Q2 - 9:43 | MIA | Jones 18' Jump Bank Shot (8 PTS) | 28 12.7% | 36 87.3% |
| Q2 - 10:03 | ORL | Howard 8' Jump Shot (10 PTS) | 28 13.8% | 34 86.2% |
| Q2 - 10:20 | ORL | Bogans REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 26 12.8% | 34 87.2% |
| Q2 - 10:22 | MIA | MISS Odom 9' Turnaround Jump Shot | 26 12.4% | 34 87.6% |
| Q2 - 10:41 | ORL | Bogans Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T6) | 26 11.6% | 34 88.4% |
| Q2 - 10:57 | MIA | Butler 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Odom 3 AST) | 26 12.8% | 34 87.2% |
| Q2 - 11:03 | ORL | Haslem STEAL (1 STL) | 26 15.0% | 31 85.0% |
| Q2 - 11:05 | MIA | Wade Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2) | 26 16.3% | 31 83.7% |
| Q2 - 11:12 | MIA | Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 26 15.0% | 31 85.0% |
| Q2 - 11:14 | ORL | MISS Howard 12' Turnaround Jump Shot | 26 15.4% | 31 84.6% |
| Q2 - 11:27 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS) | 26 16.3% | 31 83.7% |
| Q2 - 11:27 | MIA | Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS) | 26 16.5% | 30 83.5% |
| Q2 - 11:28 | MIA | Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 26 17.7% | 29 82.3% |
| Q2 - 11:29 | MIA | MISS Odom 9' Jump Shot | 26 18.7% | 29 81.3% |
| Q2 - 11:44 | ORL | Howard 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (8 PTS) | 26 17.7% | 29 82.3% |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | ORL | 24 16.3% | 29 83.7% | |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 24 16.3% | 29 83.7% |
| Q1 - 0:00.0 | ORL | MISS Rooks Layup | 24 15.4% | 29 84.6% |
| Q1 - 0:22.0 | MIA | Wade Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1) | 24 16.1% | 29 83.9% |
| Q1 - 0:38.0 | ORL | Bogans 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Gaines 1 AST) | 24 15.2% | 29 84.8% |
| Q1 - 0:48.0 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS) | 22 13.7% | 29 86.3% |
| Q1 - 0:48.0 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS) | 22 14.0% | 28 86.0% |
| Q1 - 0:52.0 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 22 15.2% | 27 84.8% |
| Q1 - 0:53.0 | ORL | MISS McGrady 22' Jump Shot | 22 15.5% | 27 84.5% |
| Q1 - 1:20 | MIA | Grant Layup (6 PTS) | 22 16.2% | 27 83.8% |
| Q1 - 1:22 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1) | 22 17.8% | 25 82.2% |
| Q1 - 1:24 | MIA | MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot | 22 18.6% | 25 81.4% |
| Q1 - 1:38 | ORL | McGrady Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T4) | 22 17.8% | 25 82.2% |
| Q1 - 1:49 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4) | 22 18.9% | 25 81.1% |
| Q1 - 1:50 | MIA | MISS Butler Tip Shot | 22 18.6% | 25 81.4% |
| Q1 - 1:52 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0) | 22 17.8% | 25 82.2% |
| Q1 - 1:54 | MIA | MISS Alston 15' Jump Shot | 22 18.6% | 25 81.4% |
| Q1 - 2:03 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4) | 22 17.7% | 25 82.3% |
| Q1 - 2:04 | MIA | MISS Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 | 22 18.9% | 25 81.1% |
| Q1 - 2:04 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS) | 22 18.0% | 25 82.0% |
| Q1 - 2:07 | MIA | Alston REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 22 19.1% | 24 80.9% |
| Q1 - 2:09 | ORL | Grant BLOCK (1 BLK) | 22 19.6% | 24 80.4% |
| Q1 - 2:31 | MIA | Alston 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Grant 2 AST) | 22 20.5% | 24 79.5% |
| Q1 - 2:33 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1) | 22 23.9% | 21 76.1% |
| Q1 - 2:35 | MIA | MISS Odom 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 22 25.0% | 21 75.0% |
| Q1 - 2:57 | ORL | Rooks 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (McGrady 2 AST) | 22 23.9% | 21 76.1% |
| Q1 - 3:12 | MIA | Wade Layup (3 PTS) (Alston 1 AST) | 20 22.1% | 21 77.9% |
| Q1 - 3:19 | ORL | Wade STEAL (1 STL) | 20 23.4% | 19 76.6% |
| Q1 - 3:33 | MIA | Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 20 25.3% | 19 74.7% |
| Q1 - 3:33 | MIA | MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 | 20 25.7% | 18 74.3% |
| Q1 - 3:40 | ORL | Odom STEAL (1 STL) | 20 25.1% | 18 74.9% |
| Q1 - 3:43 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 20 27.1% | 18 72.9% |
| Q1 - 3:44 | MIA | MISS Odom Reverse Layup | 20 26.5% | 18 73.5% |
| Q1 - 4:02 | ORL | McGrady 22' Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Lue 3 AST) | 20 24.6% | 18 75.4% |
| Q1 - 4:19 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 18 23.4% | 18 76.6% |
| Q1 - 4:19 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 18 23.7% | 17 76.3% |
| Q1 - 4:31 | ORL | MISS McGrady Free Throw 1 of 1 | 18 24.9% | 16 75.1% |
| Q1 - 4:31 | ORL | McGrady 18' Jump Shot (9 PTS) | 18 24.6% | 16 75.4% |
| Q1 - 4:42 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 16 23.4% | 16 76.6% |
| Q1 - 4:44 | MIA | MISS Butler 12' Jump Shot | 16 22.8% | 16 77.2% |
| Q1 - 4:59 | MIA | Grant REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 16 21.5% | 16 78.5% |
| Q1 - 5:01 | ORL | MISS McGrady Free Throw 2 of 2 | 16 21.4% | 16 78.6% |
| Q1 - 5:01 | ORL | McGrady Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS) | 16 22.4% | 16 77.6% |
| Q1 - 5:08 | MIA | Butler Layup (4 PTS) | 15 21.4% | 16 78.6% |
| Q1 - 5:09 | MIA | Butler REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0) | 15 22.7% | 14 77.3% |
| Q1 - 5:11 | MIA | MISS Butler Driving Layup | 15 23.8% | 14 76.2% |
| Q1 - 5:24 | MIA | Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 15 22.7% | 14 77.3% |
| Q1 - 5:26 | ORL | MISS McGrady 24' 3PT Jump Shot | 15 23.2% | 14 76.8% |
| Q1 - 5:31 | ORL | Howard REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 15 24.4% | 14 75.6% |
| Q1 - 5:33 | MIA | MISS Odom Driving Layup | 15 23.9% | 14 76.1% |
| Q1 - 5:42 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3) | 15 22.7% | 14 77.3% |
| Q1 - 5:43 | ORL | MISS Lue 15' Jump Shot | 15 23.2% | 14 76.8% |
| Q1 - 5:57 | MIA | MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 1 | 15 24.2% | 14 75.8% |
| Q1 - 5:57 | MIA | Jones 9' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Grant 1 AST) | 15 24.4% | 14 75.6% |
| Q1 - 6:18 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 15 25.4% | 12 74.6% |
| Q1 - 6:20 | ORL | MISS Lue 8' Running Jump Shot | 15 25.9% | 12 74.1% |
| Q1 - 6:41 | MIA | Butler 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Odom 2 AST) | 15 27.1% | 12 72.9% |
| Q1 - 6:59 | ORL | Howard 13' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (McGrady 1 AST) | 15 28.7% | 10 71.3% |
| Q1 - 7:15 | ORL | McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2) | 13 26.5% | 10 73.5% |
| Q1 - 7:17 | MIA | MISS Alston 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 13 26.0% | 10 74.0% |
| Q1 - 7:29 | ORL | DeClercq Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS) | 13 24.9% | 10 75.1% |
| Q1 - 7:29 | ORL | MISS DeClercq Free Throw 1 of 2 | 12 24.5% | 10 75.5% |
| Q1 - 7:35 | ORL | McGrady REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 12 25.1% | 10 74.9% |
| Q1 - 7:36 | MIA | MISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot | 12 24.6% | 10 75.4% |
| Q1 - 7:54 | ORL | Howard 14' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Lue 2 AST) | 12 23.5% | 10 76.5% |
| Q1 - 8:10 | MIA | Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS) | 10 22.1% | 10 77.9% |
| Q1 - 8:10 | MIA | Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS) | 10 22.3% | 9 77.7% |
| Q1 - 8:27 | ORL | Stevenson 8' Running Hook Shot (2 PTS) | 10 23.3% | 8 76.7% |
| Q1 - 8:43 | MIA | Jones 10' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS) | 8 22.1% | 8 77.9% |
| Q1 - 8:55 | MIA | Odom REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 8 23.3% | 6 76.7% |
| Q1 - 8:56 | ORL | MISS McGrady 17' Jump Shot | 8 23.8% | 6 76.2% |
| Q1 - 9:15 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS) | 8 24.8% | 6 75.2% |
| Q1 - 9:15 | MIA | Odom Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS) | 8 25.1% | 5 74.9% |
| Q1 - 9:32 | ORL | McGrady 17' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Lue 1 AST) | 8 25.8% | 4 74.2% |
| Q1 - 9:43 | ORL | Magic Rebound | 6 24.8% | 4 75.2% |
| Q1 - 9:44 | MIA | MISS Grant 19' Jump Shot | 6 24.2% | 4 75.8% |
| Q1 - 9:58 | ORL | McGrady 20' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Stevenson 1 AST) | 6 23.1% | 4 76.9% |
| Q1 - 10:13 | MIA | Grant Driving Dunk (4 PTS) | 4 21.9% | 4 78.1% |
| Q1 - 10:37 | ORL | Howard 8' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 4 23.0% | 2 77.0% |
| Q1 - 10:53 | ORL | Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 2 21.9% | 2 78.1% |
| Q1 - 10:54 | MIA | MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot | 2 21.4% | 2 78.6% |
| Q1 - 11:09 | ORL | McGrady 21' Jump Shot (2 PTS) | 2 20.5% | 2 79.5% |
| Q1 - 11:32 | MIA | Grant 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Odom 1 AST) | 0 19.3% | 2 80.7% |
| Q1 - 11:39 | ORL | Alston STEAL (1 STL) | 0 20.5% | 0 79.5% |
| Q1 - 11:46 | ORL | DeClercq REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1) | 0 21.7% | 0 78.3% |
| Q1 - 11:47 | MIA | MISS Odom Driving Dunk | 0 21.3% | 0 78.7% |
| Q1 - 12:00 | MIA | Jump Ball Grant vs. DeClercq: Tip to Odom | 0 20.5% | 0 79.5% |
SHOOTING
Scoring Efficiency
ORL
1.03 51.7%
MIA
0.94 47.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Scoring by Shot Type
At the Rim (within 5 feet)
ORL
7
14
50%
MIA
18
38
47%
Midrange
ORL
26
47
55%
MIA
10
31
32%
3PT | Effective 3PT
ORL
4
6.0
14
29%
43%
MIA
5
7.5
16
31%
47%
Free Throws
ORL
11
15
73%
MIA
29
35
83%
Makes
Effective 3P Makes
%
Efficiency Misses
Bars scaled to point value.
Total Points
| Magic| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. McGrady | 26 | 54% | 13.0 / 24 | |
| J. Howard | 24 | 67% | 12.0 / 18 | |
| D. Stevenson | 18 | 60% | 9.0 / 15 | |
| S. Rooks | 7 | 50% | 3.5 / 7 | |
| S. Hunter | 5 | 63% | 2.5 / 4 | |
| T. Lue | 4 | 20% | 2.0 / 10 | |
| K. Bogans | 2 | 100% | 1.0 / 1 | |
| D. Penigar | 2 | 100% | 1.0 / 1 | |
| A. DeClercq | 1 | 17% | 0.5 / 3 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
Total Points
| Heat| PLAYER | PTS | TS% | TSM / TSA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Jones | 19 | 59% | 9.5 / 16 | |
| R. Butler | 19 | 68% | 9.5 / 14 | |
| L. Odom | 16 | 42% | 8.0 / 19 | |
| B. Grant | 16 | 50% | 8.0 / 16 | |
| D. Wade | 9 | 45% | 4.5 / 10 | |
| U. Haslem | 9 | 64% | 4.5 / 7 | |
| R. Alston | 8 | 24% | 4.0 / 17 | |
| C. Butler | 4 | 40% | 2.0 / 5 |
TS Makes
TS Misses
MATCHUP
Scoring Opportunities
ORL
78
+8
-16
86
MIA
88
+17
-7
105
Base
ORB
TOV
Scoring Efficiency
ORL
1.03 51.7%
MIA
0.94 47.2%
Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency & Pace | This Game | |
| Efficiency | 100.3 99.3 | ORL 94.7 +10.6 MIA 105.3 |
| Pace | 93.1 90.6 | ORL 96.6 +4.1 MIA 92.5 |
| Avg. Poss. Time | 15.2 16.0 | ORL 14.9 +0.7 MIA 15.6 |
| Four Factors | This Game | |
| EFG % | 46.1% 46.3% | ORL 52.0% +10.2% MIA 41.8% |
| TO % | 13.8% 14.4% | ORL 17.2% MIA 6.5% +10.7% |
| ORB % | 28.1% 27.5% | ORL 12.5% MIA 30.2% +17.7% |
| FTrt | 29.6 29.8 | ORL 20.0 MIA 41.2 +21.2 |
| Misc. Stats | This Game | |
| AST % | 54.5% 57.3% | ORL 62.2% +7.7% MIA 54.5% |
| STL % | 7.1% 7.9% | ORL 5.3% MIA 9.5% +4.2% |
| BLK % | 5.6% 6.3% | ORL 4.3% MIA 8.2% +3.9% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
Reg Season Avg | Game Stats | |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting Efficiency | This Game | |
| TS% | 48.1% 48.3% | ORL 51.7% +4.5% MIA 47.2% |
| Rim FG% | 52.9% 53.9% | ORL 50.0% +2.6% MIA 47.4% |
| Mid FG% | 40.2% 36.9% | ORL 55.3% +23.0% MIA 32.3% |
| 3P % | 34.4% 35.7% | ORL 28.6% MIA 31.3% +2.7% |
| FT % | 73.7% 76.2% | ORL 73.3% MIA 82.9% +9.6% |
| Shot Distribution | This Game | |
| Rim Att. % | 29.7% 34.4% | ORL 18.7% MIA 44.7% +26.0% |
| Mid Att. % | 51.8% 44.5% | ORL 62.7% MIA 36.5% +26.2% |
| 3P Att. % | 18.4% 21.1% | ORL 18.7% MIA 18.8% +0.2% |
Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.
| Game Totals | ORL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Possessions | 94 | 95 |
| Possession Minutes | 23.4 | 24.6 |
| Points | 89 | 100 |
| Rebounds | 41 | 44 |
| Assists | 23 | 18 |
| Steals | 5 | 9 |
| Blocks | 3 | 5 |
| Turnovers (Team) | 16 (1) | 7 (0) |
| Fouls | ||
| Off. Rebounds (Team) | 4 (4) | 16 (1) |
| Def. Rebounds (Team) | 37 (2) | 28 (4) |
| Field Goals | 37-75 | 33-85 |
| At-the-Rim FG | 7-14 | 18-38 |
| Midrange FG | 26-47 | 10-31 |
| 2-Point FG | 33-61 | 28-69 |
| 3-Point FG | 4-14 | 5-16 |
| Free Throws | 11-15 | 29-35 |
| Fast Break Pts | ||
| 2nd Chance Pts | ||
| Points in Paint | ||
| Pts off Turnovers | ||
| Bench Points | ||
| Biggest Lead |
BOXSCORE
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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.
Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.
Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.
Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.
Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.