Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	1	Kings	39%	95	89
	3	Spurs	61%	99	107

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
SAC	97.8	91	97.0
SAS	117.6	91	85.7

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+13

-13

SAS

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

0.97 48.4%

SAS

1.23 61.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	SAC	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAC		89 0%	107 100%
Q4 - 0:02.0	SAS	Hart 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	89 0%	107 100%
Q4 - 0:25.0	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	89 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:27.0	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot	89 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)	89 0.1%	104 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	SAS	Parker 3' Driving Layup (11 PTS)	89 0.1%	103 99.9%
Q4 - 0:52.0	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	89 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 0:54.0	SAC	MISS Webber 25' 3PT Jump Shot	89 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:01	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (9 PTS)	89 0.1%	101 99.9%
Q4 - 1:21	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	89 0.2%	99 99.8%
Q4 - 1:23	SAC	MISS Bibby 14' Turnaround Jump Shot	89 0.3%	99 99.7%
Q4 - 1:35	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (29 PTS)	89 0.6%	99 99.4%
Q4 - 1:35	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (28 PTS)	89 0.7%	98 99.3%
Q4 - 1:55	SAC	Webber Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T15)	89 1.2%	97 98.8%
Q4 - 2:02	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	89 2.3%	97 97.7%
Q4 - 2:05	SAS	MISS Ginobili 22' Jump Shot	89 1.9%	97 98.1%
Q4 - 2:26	SAC	Songaila 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Stojakovic 2 AST)	89 1.2%	97 98.8%
Q4 - 2:44	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	87 1.0%	97 99.0%
Q4 - 2:44	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	87 1.1%	96 98.9%
Q4 - 3:00	SAC	Kings Turnover: Shot Clock (T#14)	87 1.1%	96 98.9%
Q4 - 3:03	SAC	Webber REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	87 2.0%	96 98.0%
Q4 - 3:05	SAC	Horry BLOCK (2 BLK)	87 1.3%	96 98.7%
Q4 - 3:25	SAS	MISS Ginobili Free Throw Technical	87 2.0%	96 98.0%
Q4 - 3:25	SAC	Kings Rebound	87 2.0%	96 98.0%
Q4 - 3:25	SAS	MISS Ginobili 5' Jump Shot	87 1.7%	96 98.3%
Q4 - 3:38	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	87 2.2%	96 97.8%
Q4 - 3:40	SAC	MISS Songaila 3' Reverse Layup	87 2.4%	96 97.6%
Q4 - 3:56	SAS	Ginobili 23' Jump Bank Shot (27 PTS) (Nesterovic 4 AST)	87 3.0%	96 97.0%
Q4 - 4:21	SAC	Stojakovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot (19 PTS)	87 4.0%	94 96.0%
Q4 - 4:26	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:4 Def:5)	84 2.0%	94 98.0%
Q4 - 4:29	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (7 BLK)	84 1.5%	94 98.5%
Q4 - 4:45	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	84 2.0%	94 98.0%
Q4 - 4:47	SAS	MISS Duncan 5' Jump Shot	84 1.7%	94 98.3%
Q4 - 5:03	SAC	Christie 3' Driving Layup (17 PTS) (Webber 6 AST)	84 2.1%	94 97.9%
Q4 - 5:23	SAS	Ginobili 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS)	82 1.5%	94 98.5%
Q4 - 5:36	SAS	SPURS Rebound	82 2.8%	91 97.2%
Q4 - 5:37	SAC	MISS Songaila 4' Tip Shot	82 3.1%	91 96.9%
Q4 - 5:37	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	82 3.9%	91 96.1%
Q4 - 5:38	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot	82 3.1%	91 96.9%
Q4 - 5:49	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	82 3.9%	91 96.1%
Q4 - 5:50	SAS	MISS Duncan 12' Jump Shot	82 3.5%	91 96.5%
Q4 - 6:06	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	82 3.6%	91 96.4%
Q4 - 6:08	SAC	MISS Webber 15' Jump Shot	82 4.0%	91 96.0%
Q4 - 6:12	SAC	Webber REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	82 5.1%	91 94.9%
Q4 - 6:16	SAC	Duncan BLOCK (3 BLK)	82 4.0%	91 96.0%
Q4 - 6:31	SAS	Ginobili 16' Jump Shot (22 PTS) (Nesterovic 3 AST)	82 5.0%	91 95.0%
Q4 - 6:43	SAC	Webber 6' Hook Shot (14 PTS)	82 6.4%	89 93.6%
Q4 - 6:56	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#14)	80 5.0%	89 95.0%
Q4 - 6:56	SAS	SPURS Rebound	80 3.6%	89 96.4%
Q4 - 6:56	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 5' Driving Hook Shot	80 4.5%	89 95.5%
Q4 - 7:24	SAC	Webber 10' Jump Hook Shot (12 PTS)	80 4.6%	89 95.4%
Q4 - 7:33	SAC	Kings Rebound	78 3.6%	89 96.4%
Q4 - 7:34	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (6 BLK)	78 3.0%	89 97.0%
Q4 - 7:44	SAS	Brown Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	78 3.6%	89 96.4%
Q4 - 7:44	SAS	Brown Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	78 3.8%	88 96.2%
Q4 - 8:03	SAC	Peeler 2' Layup (5 PTS) (Webber 5 AST)	78 5.7%	87 94.3%
Q4 - 8:14	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	76 4.4%	87 95.6%
Q4 - 8:23	SAS	MISS Bowen 11' Jump Shot	76 4.1%	87 95.9%
Q4 - 8:53	SAC	Peeler 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Songaila 2 AST)	76 3.4%	87 96.6%
Q4 - 9:11	SAS	Duncan 1' Dunk (18 PTS) (Brown 1 AST)	73 2.6%	87 97.4%
Q4 - 9:30	SAC	Divac 2' Dunk (14 PTS) (Christie 1 AST)	73 3.2%	85 96.8%
Q4 - 9:36	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P4.T13)	71 2.5%	85 97.5%
Q4 - 9:48	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	71 2.0%	85 98.0%
Q4 - 9:49	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (5 BLK)	71 2.1%	85 97.9%
Q4 - 10:16	SAS	Ginobili 23' Jump Shot (20 PTS)	71 3.0%	85 97.0%
Q4 - 10:32	SAC	Bibby 16' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Divac 2 AST)	71 3.7%	83 96.3%
Q4 - 10:54	SAS	Ginobili 3' Driving Layup (18 PTS)	69 3.0%	83 97.0%
Q4 - 11:07	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	69 4.2%	81 95.8%
Q4 - 11:07	SAC	Songaila 2' Tip Shot (4 PTS)	69 4.2%	81 95.8%
Q4 - 11:08	SAC	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	67 3.0%	81 97.0%
Q4 - 11:27	SAS	Ginobili 10' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	67 3.4%	81 96.6%
Q4 - 11:30	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	67 4.2%	79 95.8%
Q4 - 11:31	SAS	MISS Turkoglu 3PT Jump Shot	67 4.9%	79 95.1%
Q4 - 11:45	SAC	Songaila Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T13)	67 4.2%	79 95.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAC		67 5.2%	79 94.8%
Q3 - 0:04.0	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (14 PTS)	67 5.8%	79 94.2%
Q3 - 0:16.0	SAC	Divac Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	67 7.1%	77 92.9%
Q3 - 0:16.0	SAC	Divac Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	66 6.7%	77 93.3%
Q3 - 0:32.0	SAS	Ginobili 22' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	65 5.8%	77 94.2%
Q3 - 0:42.0	SAC	Divac 16' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Songaila 1 AST)	65 7.0%	75 93.0%
Q3 - 1:04	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	63 6.5%	75 93.5%
Q3 - 1:04	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	63 6.7%	74 93.3%
Q3 - 1:14	SAC	Bibby Foul Turnover (P4.T12)	63 7.7%	73 92.3%
Q3 - 1:29	SAS	Horry 2' Layup (6 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	63 9.2%	73 90.8%
Q3 - 1:42	SAC	Bowen STEAL (1 STL)	63 10.9%	71 89.1%
Q3 - 2:00	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (8 PTS)	63 13.1%	71 86.9%
Q3 - 2:11	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	63 15.8%	69 84.2%
Q3 - 2:13	SAS	MISS Turkoglu 24' 3PT Jump Shot	63 17.8%	69 82.2%
Q3 - 2:31	SAC	Stojakovic 17' Jump Shot (16 PTS)	63 15.8%	69 84.2%
Q3 - 2:49	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	61 13.6%	69 86.4%
Q3 - 2:51	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 9' Jump Hook Shot	61 12.9%	69 87.1%
Q3 - 3:05	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	61 12.2%	69 87.8%
Q3 - 3:07	SAC	MISS Webber 18' Jump Shot	61 12.8%	69 87.2%
Q3 - 3:24	SAS	Turkoglu Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	61 14.3%	69 85.7%
Q3 - 3:24	SAS	Turkoglu Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	61 14.8%	68 85.2%
Q3 - 3:24	SAS	MISS Turkoglu Free Throw Technical	61 16.5%	67 83.5%
Q3 - 3:40	SAC	Christie 3' Running Layup (15 PTS)	61 16.5%	67 83.5%
Q3 - 3:46	SAS	Horry Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T12)	59 14.3%	67 85.7%
Q3 - 4:06	SAC	Webber 3' Driving Layup (10 PTS)	59 12.5%	67 87.5%
Q3 - 4:18	SAC	Kings Rebound	57 10.9%	67 89.1%
Q3 - 4:20	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	57 10.4%	67 89.6%
Q3 - 4:34	SAC	Stojakovic 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (14 PTS)	57 9.1%	67 90.9%
Q3 - 4:52	SAS	Turkoglu 10' Jump Bank Shot (12 PTS)	55 8.0%	67 92.0%
Q3 - 5:19	SAC	Christie 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	55 9.8%	65 90.2%
Q3 - 5:33	SAS	Turkoglu 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	52 7.3%	65 92.7%
Q3 - 5:47	SAC	Kings Turnover: Shot Clock (T#10)	52 9.7%	62 90.3%
Q3 - 5:47	SAC	Kings Rebound	52 11.4%	62 88.6%
Q3 - 5:48	SAC	MISS Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	52 10.2%	62 89.8%
Q3 - 6:14	SAS	Turkoglu 17' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Horry 1 AST)	52 12.0%	62 88.0%
Q3 - 6:29	SAC	Bibby 11' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	52 13.6%	60 86.4%
Q3 - 6:39	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	50 11.9%	60 88.1%
Q3 - 6:40	SAS	MISS Nesterovic 5' Jump Shot	50 11.4%	60 88.6%
Q3 - 6:54	SAC	Webber Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9)	50 10.2%	60 89.8%
Q3 - 7:12	SAS	Duncan Foul Turnover (P3.T11)	50 12.4%	60 87.6%
Q3 - 7:31	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	50 10.6%	60 89.4%
Q3 - 7:31	SAC	Divac 11' Fadeaway Jumper (8 PTS)	50 10.6%	60 89.4%
Q3 - 7:34	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (4 BLK)	48 8.4%	60 91.6%
Q3 - 7:54	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	48 9.4%	60 90.6%
Q3 - 7:55	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	48 9.2%	60 90.8%
Q3 - 7:55	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2	48 8.5%	60 91.5%
Q3 - 8:08	SAC	Stojakovic Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	48 8.4%	60 91.6%
Q3 - 8:08	SAC	Stojakovic Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	47 8.3%	60 91.7%
Q3 - 8:21	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	46 7.4%	60 92.6%
Q3 - 8:21	SAS	Turkoglu 1' Layup (5 PTS)	46 7.4%	60 92.6%
Q3 - 8:24	SAS	MISS Turkoglu 1' Layup	46 9.3%	58 90.7%
Q3 - 8:27	SAC	Turkoglu STEAL (1 STL)	46 8.3%	58 91.7%
Q3 - 8:41	SAS	Bowen 8' Jump Bank Shot (16 PTS) (Nesterovic 2 AST)	46 9.7%	58 90.3%
Q3 - 8:57	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 10.9%	56 89.1%
Q3 - 8:59	SAC	MISS Webber 9' Turnaround Hook Shot	46 11.5%	56 88.5%
Q3 - 9:18	SAC	Webber REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	46 13.0%	56 87.0%
Q3 - 9:19	SAS	MISS Duncan 19' Jump Shot	46 12.5%	56 87.5%
Q3 - 9:27	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	46 11.3%	56 88.7%
Q3 - 9:29	SAC	MISS Bibby 5' Running Layup	46 11.8%	56 88.2%
Q3 - 9:49	SAS	Duncan 2' Dunk (16 PTS) (Turkoglu 1 AST)	46 13.0%	56 87.0%
Q3 - 10:04	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	46 15.0%	54 85.0%
Q3 - 10:06	SAC	MISS Webber 17' Jump Shot	46 15.6%	54 84.4%
Q3 - 10:30	SAS	Nesterovic Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T10)	46 17.1%	54 82.9%
Q3 - 10:58	SAC	Webber 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	46 14.9%	54 85.1%
Q3 - 11:13	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	44 13.7%	54 86.3%
Q3 - 11:15	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	44 13.2%	54 86.8%
Q3 - 11:34	SAC	Divac 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Webber 4 AST)	44 12.1%	54 87.9%
Q3 - 11:48	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T9)	42 10.7%	54 89.3%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		42 9.4%	54 90.6%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAC	Christie 3' Dunk (10 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	42 9.4%	54 90.6%
Q2 - 0:03.0	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	40 8.8%	54 91.2%
Q2 - 0:04.0	SAS	MISS Bowen 24' 3PT Jump Shot	40 8.6%	54 91.4%
Q2 - 0:22.0	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	40 8.1%	54 91.9%
Q2 - 0:23.0	SAC	MISS Divac Free Throw 2 of 2	40 8.2%	54 91.8%
Q2 - 0:23.0	SAC	MISS Divac Free Throw 1 of 2	40 8.8%	54 91.2%
Q2 - 0:32.0	SAC	Webber REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	40 8.8%	54 91.2%
Q2 - 0:34.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 9' Jump Shot	40 8.5%	54 91.5%
Q2 - 0:50.0	SAC	Christie 17' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	40 8.0%	54 92.0%
Q2 - 0:59.0	SAS	Horry 19' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	38 6.8%	54 93.2%
Q2 - 1:18	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	38 8.6%	52 91.4%
Q2 - 1:20	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (3 BLK)	38 8.7%	52 91.3%
Q2 - 1:22	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	38 9.1%	52 90.9%
Q2 - 1:24	SAC	MISS Bibby 17' Fadeaway Jumper	38 8.7%	52 91.3%
Q2 - 1:40	SAS	Ginobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T8)	38 9.1%	52 90.9%
Q2 - 1:45	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	38 8.6%	52 91.4%
Q2 - 1:46	SAC	MISS Webber 6' Jump Shot	38 8.7%	52 91.3%
Q2 - 2:10	SAS	Bowen 21' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	38 9.8%	52 90.2%
Q2 - 2:30	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	38 11.0%	50 89.0%
Q2 - 2:32	SAC	MISS Webber 19' Jump Shot	38 11.3%	50 88.7%
Q2 - 2:55	SAS	Bowen 1' Layup (12 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	38 12.1%	50 87.9%
Q2 - 2:59	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	38 13.7%	48 86.3%
Q2 - 3:01	SAC	Horry BLOCK (1 BLK)	38 14.7%	48 85.3%
Q2 - 3:19	SAS	Turkoglu 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	38 15.8%	48 84.2%
Q2 - 3:30	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	38 19.1%	45 80.9%
Q2 - 3:31	SAC	MISS Bibby 7' Running Jump Shot	38 19.7%	45 80.3%
Q2 - 3:41	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	38 21.2%	45 78.8%
Q2 - 3:42	SAS	MISS Horry 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 20.5%	45 79.5%
Q2 - 3:56	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	38 19.0%	45 81.0%
Q2 - 3:58	SAC	MISS Webber 7' Finger Roll	38 19.7%	45 80.3%
Q2 - 4:10	SAS	Horry 9' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)	38 21.4%	45 78.6%
Q2 - 4:25	SAC	Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Webber 3 AST)	38 23.4%	43 76.6%
Q2 - 4:44	SAS	Duncan 4' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Bowen 1 AST)	35 19.5%	43 80.5%
Q2 - 5:01	SAS	SPURS Rebound	35 21.5%	41 78.5%
Q2 - 5:02	SAC	MISS Peeler 24' 3PT Jump Shot	35 22.1%	41 77.9%
Q2 - 5:21	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	35 23.6%	41 76.4%
Q2 - 5:27	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	35 27.8%	38 72.2%
Q2 - 5:29	SAC	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	35 28.5%	38 71.5%
Q2 - 5:47	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	35 30.3%	38 69.7%
Q2 - 5:49	SAS	MISS Parker 18' Jump Shot	35 29.5%	38 70.5%
Q2 - 6:09	SAC	Webber Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	35 27.8%	38 72.2%
Q2 - 6:09	SAC	Webber Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	34 27.2%	38 72.8%
Q2 - 6:21	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	33 26.1%	38 73.9%
Q2 - 6:22	SAS	MISS Horry 14' Jump Shot	33 25.3%	38 74.7%
Q2 - 6:49	SAC	Christie 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	33 23.6%	38 76.4%
Q2 - 6:57	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	31 22.0%	38 78.0%
Q2 - 6:59	SAS	MISS Brown 26' 3PT Jump Shot	31 21.4%	38 78.6%
Q2 - 7:08	SAS	Horry REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	31 20.6%	38 79.4%
Q2 - 7:10	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 1' Running Layup	31 21.2%	38 78.8%
Q2 - 7:14	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	31 22.5%	38 77.5%
Q2 - 7:16	SAS	MISS Hart 3' Driving Layup	31 21.9%	38 78.1%
Q2 - 7:43	SAC	Webber 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	31 20.5%	38 79.5%
Q2 - 8:03	SAS	Bowen 5' Running Finger Roll (7 PTS) (Hart 1 AST)	29 19.2%	38 80.8%
Q2 - 8:26	SAC	Duncan STEAL (1 STL)	29 20.6%	36 79.4%
Q2 - 8:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	29 22.6%	36 77.4%
Q2 - 8:42	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	29 23.1%	35 76.9%
Q2 - 8:42	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	29 24.2%	34 75.8%
Q2 - 8:43	SAS	MISS Hart 8' Running Jump Shot	29 25.7%	34 74.3%
Q2 - 9:07	SAC	Stojakovic Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	29 24.4%	34 75.6%
Q2 - 9:07	SAC	Stojakovic Free Throw 1 of 2 (6 PTS)	28 24.2%	34 75.8%
Q2 - 9:18	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	27 22.8%	34 77.2%
Q2 - 9:20	SAS	MISS Duncan 8' Turnaround Hook Shot	27 22.2%	34 77.8%
Q2 - 9:37	SAC	Webber 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Stojakovic 1 AST)	27 20.8%	34 79.2%
Q2 - 9:54	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (6 PTS)	25 19.4%	34 80.6%
Q2 - 9:59	SAC	Hart STEAL (1 STL)	25 20.8%	32 79.2%
Q2 - 10:14	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	25 22.9%	32 77.1%
Q2 - 10:14	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	25 23.3%	31 76.7%
Q2 - 10:39	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	25 24.5%	30 75.5%
Q2 - 10:40	SAC	MISS Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2	25 24.8%	30 75.2%
Q2 - 10:40	SAC	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	25 26.1%	30 73.9%
Q2 - 10:42	SAS	Brown Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	24 24.7%	30 75.3%
Q2 - 10:45	SAS	Brown REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 22.7%	30 77.3%
Q2 - 10:46	SAC	MISS Bibby 5' Jump Shot	24 23.3%	30 76.7%
Q2 - 11:05	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	24 24.6%	30 75.4%
Q2 - 11:05	SAS	Nesterovic 2' Follow Up Dunk (4 PTS)	24 24.6%	30 75.4%
Q2 - 11:07	SAS	MISS Brown 4' Driving Layup	24 27.7%	28 72.3%
Q2 - 11:17	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	24 26.4%	28 73.6%
Q2 - 11:18	SAC	MISS Peeler 17' Jump Shot	24 27.0%	28 73.0%
Q2 - 11:45	SAS	Parker 19' Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	24 28.4%	28 71.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		24 30.4%	26 69.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Rose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	24 30.4%	26 69.6%
Q1 - 0:01.0	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (2 BLK)	24 31.0%	26 69.0%
Q1 - 0:06.0	SAS	Parker 1' Reverse Layup (5 PTS)	24 32.1%	26 67.9%
Q1 - 0:22.0	SAC	Songaila Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	24 34.7%	24 65.3%
Q1 - 0:22.0	SAC	Songaila Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	23 34.2%	24 65.8%
Q1 - 0:22.0	SAC	Songaila REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	22 32.1%	24 67.9%
Q1 - 0:23.0	SAC	MISS Christie 21' Jump Shot	22 31.0%	24 69.0%
Q1 - 0:26.0	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	22 32.1%	24 67.9%
Q1 - 0:27.0	SAC	MISS Songaila 3' Layup	22 31.0%	24 69.0%
Q1 - 0:45.0	SAS	Brown 7' Running Jump Shot (2 PTS)	22 32.1%	24 67.9%
Q1 - 0:56.0	SAC	Nesterovic STEAL (1 STL)	22 34.7%	22 65.3%
Q1 - 1:11	SAS	Parker 20' Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Nesterovic 1 AST)	22 36.4%	22 63.6%
Q1 - 1:25	SAC	Christie 1' Reverse Dunk (4 PTS) (Divac 1 AST)	22 39.2%	20 60.8%
Q1 - 1:41	SAS	Ginobili Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	20 36.4%	20 63.6%
Q1 - 1:53	SAC	Bibby 3' Driving Layup (9 PTS)	20 34.8%	20 65.2%
Q1 - 2:09	SAS	Ginobili 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	18 32.5%	20 67.5%
Q1 - 2:27	SAS	Rose REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 34.7%	18 65.3%
Q1 - 2:29	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot	18 35.3%	18 64.7%
Q1 - 2:49	SAS	Duncan 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	18 36.7%	18 63.3%
Q1 - 3:09	SAC	Webber Foul Turnover (P2.T4)	18 38.5%	16 61.5%
Q1 - 3:37	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	18 40.9%	16 59.1%
Q1 - 3:39	SAS	MISS Bowen 3PT Jump Shot	18 40.2%	16 59.8%
Q1 - 3:50	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	18 38.5%	16 61.5%
Q1 - 3:51	SAS	MISS Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot	18 40.2%	16 59.8%
Q1 - 4:00	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 38.5%	16 61.5%
Q1 - 4:02	SAC	MISS Christie 11' Jump Shot	18 38.9%	16 61.1%
Q1 - 4:24	SAS	Duncan 4' Jump Bank Shot (8 PTS)	18 40.7%	16 59.3%
Q1 - 4:50	SAC	Divac 1' Running Dunk (4 PTS) (Webber 2 AST)	18 42.4%	14 57.6%
Q1 - 5:02	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	16 40.0%	14 60.0%
Q1 - 5:03	SAS	MISS Ginobili 21' Jump Shot	16 39.3%	14 60.7%
Q1 - 5:14	SAC	Stojakovic Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	16 37.8%	14 62.2%
Q1 - 5:25	SAS	Bowen 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	16 40.0%	14 60.0%
Q1 - 5:32	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 43.9%	11 56.1%
Q1 - 5:33	SAC	MISS Bibby 17' Jump Shot	16 44.6%	11 55.4%
Q1 - 5:50	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	16 46.3%	11 53.7%
Q1 - 5:50	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	16 46.9%	10 53.1%
Q1 - 6:04	SAC	Christie 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	16 47.4%	9 52.6%
Q1 - 6:18	SAS	Bowen 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	14 45.5%	9 54.5%
Q1 - 6:39	SAC	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	14 47.4%	7 52.6%
Q1 - 6:39	SAC	Bibby 2' Layup (6 PTS)	13 45.4%	7 54.6%
Q1 - 6:42	SAS	Duncan Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T5)	11 43.5%	7 56.5%
Q1 - 6:49	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	11 41.4%	7 58.6%
Q1 - 6:51	SAC	MISS Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot	11 42.1%	7 57.9%
Q1 - 7:00	SAS	Duncan 3' Layup (4 PTS)	11 43.5%	7 56.5%
Q1 - 7:20	SAC	Stojakovic 2' Dunk (5 PTS)	11 44.5%	5 55.5%
Q1 - 7:25	SAS	Parker Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T4)	9 42.8%	5 57.2%
Q1 - 7:38	SAC	Stojakovic Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)	9 40.8%	5 59.2%
Q1 - 7:42	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	9 42.9%	5 57.1%
Q1 - 7:44	SAS	MISS Parker 3' Driving Layup	9 42.2%	5 57.8%
Q1 - 8:00	SAC	Bibby 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Webber 1 AST)	9 40.8%	5 59.2%
Q1 - 8:16	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	7 39.2%	5 60.8%
Q1 - 8:16	SAS	Nesterovic 2' Tip Shot (2 PTS)	7 39.2%	5 60.8%
Q1 - 8:17	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 2	7 42.5%	3 57.5%
Q1 - 8:17	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	7 41.4%	3 58.6%
Q1 - 8:19	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	7 42.6%	2 57.4%
Q1 - 8:21	SAC	MISS Bibby 7' Running Jump Shot	7 43.2%	2 56.8%
Q1 - 8:30	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	7 44.7%	2 55.3%
Q1 - 8:31	SAS	MISS Turkoglu 25' 3PT Jump Shot	7 44.0%	2 56.0%
Q1 - 8:47	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 42.6%	2 57.4%
Q1 - 8:48	SAC	MISS Christie 19' Jump Shot	7 43.2%	2 56.8%
Q1 - 9:09	SAC	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	7 44.6%	2 55.4%
Q1 - 9:10	SAS	MISS Turkoglu 14' Jump Bank Shot	7 43.9%	2 56.1%
Q1 - 9:26	SAC	Stojakovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	7 42.3%	2 57.7%
Q1 - 9:34	SAS	Turkoglu Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	4 39.1%	2 60.9%
Q1 - 9:58	SAC	Bibby 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	4 36.9%	2 63.1%
Q1 - 10:06	SAC	Webber REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 35.3%	2 64.7%
Q1 - 10:07	SAS	MISS Parker 20' Jump Shot	2 34.7%	2 65.3%
Q1 - 10:18	SAC	Webber Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	2 33.4%	2 66.6%
Q1 - 10:24	SAS	Duncan Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	2 35.3%	2 64.7%
Q1 - 10:41	SAS	Nesterovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 33.4%	2 66.6%
Q1 - 10:43	SAC	MISS Bibby 18' Jump Shot	2 34.0%	2 66.0%
Q1 - 10:56	SAS	Duncan 15' Jump Bank Shot (2 PTS)	2 35.4%	2 64.6%
Q1 - 11:15	SAC	Divac Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	2 36.9%	0 63.1%
Q1 - 11:15	SAC	Divac Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	1 36.4%	0 63.6%
Q1 - 11:15	SAC	Divac REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 35.1%	0 64.9%
Q1 - 11:15	SAC	Nesterovic BLOCK (1 BLK)	0 34.0%	0 66.0%
Q1 - 11:20	SAS	Parker Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 35.1%	0 64.9%
Q1 - 11:35	SAS	Turkoglu REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 33.6%	0 66.4%
Q1 - 11:36	SAC	Stojakovic REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 35.1%	0 64.9%
Q1 - 11:36	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 2' Layup	0 34.0%	0 66.0%
Q1 - 11:38	SAC	MISS Stojakovic 5' Jump Shot	0 34.0%	0 66.0%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Nesterovic vs. Divac: Tip to Bibby	0 35.1%	0 64.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

0.97 48.4%

SAS

1.23 61.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAC

46%

SAS

71%

Midrange

SAC

45%

SAS

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAC

7.5

38%

58%

SAS

9.0

43%

64%

Free Throws

SAC

82%

SAS

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Stojakovic	19	56%	9.5 / 17
D. Christie	17	71%	8.5 / 12
M. Bibby	14	39%	7.0 / 18
C. Webber	14	41%	7.0 / 17
V. Divac	14	58%	7.0 / 12
D. Songaila	6	50%	3.0 / 6
A. Peeler	5	50%	2.5 / 5
G. Wallace	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Ginobili	29	76%	14.5 / 19
T. Duncan	19	63%	9.5 / 15
B. Bowen	16	80%	8.0 / 10
H. Turkoglu	14	64%	7.0 / 11
T. Parker	12	50%	6.0 / 12
R. Horry	6	60%	3.0 / 5
R. Nesterovic	4	40%	2.0 / 5
D. Brown	4	50%	2.0 / 4
J. Hart	3	50%	1.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

SAC

+13

-13

SAS

-13

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAC

0.97 48.4%

SAS

1.23 61.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.1 100.0	SAC 97.8 +19.8 SAS 117.6
Pace	95.6 91.3	SAC 97.0 +11.3 SAS 85.7
Avg. Poss. Time	14.2 16.0	SAC 14.8 +2.0 SAS 16.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.7% 47.3%	SAC 47.5% SAS 61.6% +14.1%
TO %	14.1% 15.4%	SAC 14.8% SAS 14.4% +0.4%
ORB %	26.1% 29.5%	SAC 26.2% +2.9% SAS 23.3%
FTrt	30.4 32.2	SAC 21.5 SAS 31.5 +10.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	69.4% 59.0%	SAC 45.7% SAS 47.6% +1.9%
STL %	9.0% 8.8%	SAC 8.8% +3.3% SAS 5.5%
BLK %	5.7% 9.9%	SAC 10.2% SAS 18.2% +8.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.38 and 2.38.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.9% 48.6%	SAC 48.4% SAS 61.5% +13.1%
Rim FG%	59.2% 57.6%	SAC 46.4% SAS 71.4% +25.0%
Mid FG%	40.0% 37.0%	SAC 44.7% SAS 51.6% +6.9%
3P %	40.1% 35.8%	SAC 38.5% SAS 42.9% +4.4%
FT %	79.5% 68.1%	SAC 82.4% +8.5% SAS 73.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	32.4% 35.9%	SAC 35.4% SAS 38.4% +2.9%
Mid Att. %	45.3% 46.4%	SAC 48.1% SAS 42.5% +5.6%
3P Att. %	22.3% 17.7%	SAC 16.5% SAS 19.2% +2.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.07 and 3.07.

Game Totals	SAC	SAS
Possessions	91	91
Possession Minutes	22.5	25.5
Points	89	107
Rebounds	34	38
Assists	16	20
Steals	8	5
Blocks	6	12
Turnovers (Team)	13 (2)	13 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (2)	7 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	23 (2)	31 (2)
Field Goals	35-79	42-73
At-the-Rim FG	13-28	20-28
Midrange FG	17-38	16-31
2-Point FG	30-66	36-59
3-Point FG	5-13	6-14
Free Throws	14-17	17-23
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

1 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Doug Christie G · 6'6" 205 · 34	40.0	17	71%	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	7-11	64%	1-1	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 26	39.5	14	39%	6	3	2	2	4	2	0	6	2-3	67%	6-14	43%	0-2	0%
Chris Webber F · 6'10" 245 · 31	39.0	14	41%	5	6	2	1	4	4	2	3	2-2	100%	6-15	40%	0-1	0%
Peja Stojakovic F · 6'10" 229 · 27	38.5	19	56%	6	2	1	0	2	2	2	4	4-4	100%	3-9	33%	3-6	50%
Vlade Divac C · 7'1" 260 · 36	33.2	14	58%	8	2	0	0	0	1	3	5	4-6	67%	5-8	63%	0-1	0%
Anthony Peeler G · 6'4" 208 · 34	22.3	5	50%	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Darius Songaila F · 6'9" 248 · 26	22.2	6	50%	9	2	0	1	1	5	4	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Gerald Wallace F · 6'7" 220 · 22	5.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Brad Miller C-F · 7'0" 261 · 28
Tony Massenburg F-C · 6'9" 250 · 37
Rodney Buford F-G · 6'5" 195 · 26
Jabari Smith C · 6'11" 250 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	48%	34	16	8	6	13	0	11	23	14-17	82%	30-66	45%	5-13	38%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

1 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Doug Christie G · 6'6" 205 · 34	40.0	17	71%	0	1	3	1	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	7-11	64%	1-1	100%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 26	39.5	14	39%	6	3	2	2	4	2	0	6	2-3	67%	6-14	43%	0-2	0%
Chris Webber F · 6'10" 245 · 31	39.0	14	41%	5	6	2	1	4	4	2	3	2-2	100%	6-15	40%	0-1	0%
Peja Stojakovic F · 6'10" 229 · 27	38.5	19	56%	6	2	1	0	2	2	2	4	4-4	100%	3-9	33%	3-6	50%
Vlade Divac C · 7'1" 260 · 36	33.2	14	58%	8	2	0	0	0	1	3	5	4-6	67%	5-8	63%	0-1	0%
Anthony Peeler G · 6'4" 208 · 34	22.3	5	50%	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Darius Songaila F · 6'9" 248 · 26	22.2	6	50%	9	2	0	1	1	5	4	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Gerald Wallace F · 6'7" 220 · 22	5.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Brad Miller C-F · 7'0" 261 · 28
Tony Massenburg F-C · 6'9" 250 · 37
Rodney Buford F-G · 6'5" 195 · 26
Jabari Smith C · 6'11" 250 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	89	48%	34	16	8	6	13	0	11	23	14-17	82%	30-66	45%	5-13	38%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 33	38.8	16	80%	1	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	5-6	83%	2-4	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 22	37.7	12	50%	5	6	0	0	3	1	1	4	2-3	67%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 28	36.1	19	63%	7	1	1	3	4	3	1	6	5-8	63%	7-11	64%	0-0	-
Rasho Nesterovic C · 7'0" 255 · 28	31.0	4	40%	7	4	1	7	1	5	2	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-0	-
Hedo Turkoglu G · 6'10" 220 · 25	25.3	14	64%	7	1	1	0	1	1	1	6	2-3	67%	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 27	26.0	29	76%	2	4	0	0	2	3	2	0	6-7	86%	10-14	71%	1-2	50%
Robert Horry F-C · 6'10" 240 · 34	19.4	6	60%	6	1	0	2	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Devin Brown G · 6'5" 210 · 25	12.8	4	50%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Malik Rose F · 6'7" 255 · 29	8.0	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jason Hart G · 6'3" 180 · 26	5.1	3	50%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-1	100%
Kevin Willis C-F · 7'0" 245 · 42
Charlie Ward G · 6'2" 185 · 33
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	62%	38	20	5	12	13	0	7	31	17-23	74%	36-59	61%	6-14	43%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE