Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 29, 2005

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	36	Hawks	13%	88	83
	10	Grizzlies	87%	103	84

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
ATL	102.5	81	81.6
MEM	106.3	79	78.5

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+16

-13

MEM

+18

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.6%

MEM

0.97 48.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MEM
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		83 0%	84 100%
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	83 1.4%	84 98.6%
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Lue 13' Fadeaway Jumper	83 0.8%	84 99.2%
Q4 - 0:24.0	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P4.T13)	83 22.8%	84 77.2%
Q4 - 0:45.0	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	83 12.5%	84 87.5%
Q4 - 0:46.0	ATL	MISS Walker 6' Jump Shot	83 15.5%	84 84.5%
Q4 - 1:10	MEM	Miller Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T12)	83 23.2%	84 76.8%
Q4 - 1:23	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	83 12.9%	84 87.1%
Q4 - 1:23	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	82 11.4%	84 88.6%
Q4 - 1:38	MEM	Williams 18' Jump Shot (23 PTS)	81 8.9%	84 91.1%
Q4 - 1:49	ATL	Lue Double Dribble Turnover (P1.T15)	81 13.9%	82 86.1%
Q4 - 2:02	MEM	Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Swift 2 AST)	81 21.4%	82 78.6%
Q4 - 2:31	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	81 36.0%	79 64.0%
Q4 - 2:31	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	80 33.4%	79 66.6%
Q4 - 2:35	MEM	Williams Lost Ball Turnover (P4.T11)	79 30.5%	79 69.5%
Q4 - 2:49	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	79 18.0%	79 82.0%
Q4 - 2:51	ATL	MISS Walker 27' 3PT Jump Shot	79 22.3%	79 77.7%
Q4 - 3:14	MEM	Miller Driving Layup (18 PTS)	79 30.0%	79 70.0%
Q4 - 3:38	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:5 Def:1)	79 34.4%	77 65.6%
Q4 - 3:40	MEM	MISS Williams 24' 3PT Jump Shot	79 40.8%	77 59.2%
Q4 - 3:48	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	79 34.7%	77 65.3%
Q4 - 3:52	MEM	MISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot	79 41.3%	77 58.7%
Q4 - 4:04	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	79 35.0%	77 65.0%
Q4 - 4:04	ATL	Harrington Tip Shot (14 PTS)	79 35.0%	77 65.0%
Q4 - 4:07	ATL	MISS Walker Layup	77 22.3%	77 77.7%
Q4 - 4:39	MEM	Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Miller 5 AST)	77 27.7%	77 72.3%
Q4 - 5:06	MEM	Cardinal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	77 39.2%	74 60.8%
Q4 - 5:08	ATL	MISS Walker Free Throw 2 of 2	77 40.3%	74 59.7%
Q4 - 5:08	ATL	MISS Walker Free Throw 1 of 2	77 44.4%	74 55.6%
Q4 - 5:31	MEM	Cardinal Driving Layup (6 PTS)	77 48.0%	74 52.0%
Q4 - 5:45	ATL	Walker Layup (17 PTS)	77 56.1%	72 43.9%
Q4 - 6:06	MEM	Williams Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	75 43.3%	72 56.7%
Q4 - 6:06	MEM	Williams Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	75 44.2%	71 55.8%
Q4 - 6:13	ATL	Cardinal STEAL (1 STL)	75 49.7%	70 50.3%
Q4 - 6:40	MEM	Battier 12' Jump Bank Shot (15 PTS)	75 58.6%	70 41.4%
Q4 - 7:07	ATL	Delk 19' Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Childress 2 AST)	75 59.3%	68 40.7%
Q4 - 7:28	MEM	Miller Layup (16 PTS) (Williams 8 AST)	73 53.6%	68 46.4%
Q4 - 7:32	ATL	Williams STEAL (1 STL)	73 59.5%	66 40.5%
Q4 - 7:46	MEM	Cardinal Foul Turnover (P1.T10)	73 66.9%	66 33.1%
Q4 - 7:57	ATL	Childress Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	73 59.7%	66 40.3%
Q4 - 7:57	ATL	Childress Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	72 58.2%	66 41.8%
Q4 - 8:01	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	71 49.9%	66 50.1%
Q4 - 8:04	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	71 48.0%	66 52.0%
Q4 - 8:14	ATL	Harrington Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T12)	71 43.6%	66 56.4%
Q4 - 8:40	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	71 50.2%	66 49.8%
Q4 - 8:42	MEM	MISS Williams 27' 3PT Jump Shot	71 48.2%	66 51.8%
Q4 - 9:01	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	71 40.6%	66 59.4%
Q4 - 9:03	ATL	MISS Childress 3PT Jump Shot	71 42.5%	66 57.5%
Q4 - 9:20	MEM	Williams Driving Layup (16 PTS)	71 47.0%	66 53.0%
Q4 - 9:29	MEM	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	71 52.8%	64 47.2%
Q4 - 9:33	ATL	MISS Walker 11' Turnaround Jump Shot	71 54.7%	64 45.3%
Q4 - 9:56	ATL	Hawks Rebound	71 59.1%	64 40.9%
Q4 - 9:57	MEM	MISS Cardinal 26' 3PT Jump Shot	71 57.2%	64 42.8%
Q4 - 10:19	ATL	Lue 17' Fadeaway Jumper (17 PTS)	71 50.2%	64 49.8%
Q4 - 10:44	ATL	Hawks Rebound	69 45.0%	64 55.0%
Q4 - 10:44	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	69 39.0%	64 61.0%
Q4 - 10:44	MEM	MISS Humphrey Tip Shot	69 43.2%	64 56.8%
Q4 - 10:45	MEM	MISS Jones Driving Layup	69 43.2%	64 56.8%
Q4 - 10:59	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	69 39.0%	64 61.0%
Q4 - 11:01	ATL	MISS Walker Layup	69 40.1%	64 59.9%
Q4 - 11:16	MEM	GRIZZLIES Turnover: Shot Clock (T#9)	69 43.9%	64 56.1%
Q4 - 11:46	ATL	Humphrey STEAL (2 STL)	69 38.5%	64 61.5%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL		69 44.0%	64 56.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Hawks Rebound	69 44.0%	64 56.0%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Childress 15' Jump Shot	69 40.1%	64 59.9%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	69 44.0%	64 56.0%
Q3 - 0:02.0	ATL	MISS Diaw Dunk	69 37.9%	64 62.1%
Q3 - 0:05.0	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	69 41.3%	64 58.7%
Q3 - 0:08.0	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	69 36.5%	64 63.5%
Q3 - 0:08.0	MEM	MISS Wright Tip Shot	69 39.8%	64 60.2%
Q3 - 0:10.0	MEM	MISS Wells Layup	69 39.8%	64 60.2%
Q3 - 0:27.0	ATL	MISS Delk Free Throw 1 of 1	69 37.2%	64 62.8%
Q3 - 0:27.0	ATL	Delk Layup (13 PTS) (Harrington 4 AST)	69 36.6%	64 63.4%
Q3 - 0:31.0	MEM	Wells Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T8)	67 32.0%	64 68.0%
Q3 - 0:53.0	ATL	Walker 26' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Delk 4 AST)	67 27.7%	64 72.3%
Q3 - 1:14	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	64 19.5%	64 80.5%
Q3 - 1:16	MEM	MISS Wright Free Throw 2 of 2	64 19.1%	64 80.9%
Q3 - 1:16	MEM	MISS Wright Free Throw 1 of 2	64 17.4%	64 82.6%
Q3 - 1:16	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	64 16.5%	64 83.5%
Q3 - 1:16	MEM	MISS Battier Layup	64 18.5%	64 81.5%
Q3 - 1:35	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	64 16.5%	64 83.5%
Q3 - 1:35	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	63 15.8%	64 84.2%
Q3 - 1:35	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	62 14.1%	64 85.9%
Q3 - 1:36	ATL	MISS Delk 12' Jump Shot	62 12.5%	64 87.5%
Q3 - 1:49	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	62 14.1%	64 85.9%
Q3 - 1:53	MEM	MISS Watson Running Layup	62 13.3%	64 86.7%
Q3 - 1:57	MEM	Watson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	62 11.8%	64 88.2%
Q3 - 1:59	ATL	MISS Childress Driving Layup	62 12.5%	64 87.5%
Q3 - 2:18	MEM	Jones Driving Layup (3 PTS)	62 13.8%	64 86.2%
Q3 - 2:40	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	62 16.0%	62 84.0%
Q3 - 2:40	ATL	Childress Tip Shot (2 PTS)	62 16.0%	62 84.0%
Q3 - 2:43	ATL	MISS Ekezie 7' Jump Shot	60 12.2%	62 87.8%
Q3 - 3:03	ATL	Ekezie REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	60 13.9%	62 86.1%
Q3 - 3:04	MEM	MISS Wells Free Throw 2 of 2	60 13.5%	62 86.5%
Q3 - 3:04	MEM	MISS Wells Free Throw 1 of 2	60 12.2%	62 87.8%
Q3 - 3:06	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	60 11.7%	62 88.3%
Q3 - 3:11	ATL	Wright BLOCK (4 BLK)	60 12.3%	62 87.7%
Q3 - 3:30	MEM	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	60 13.8%	62 86.2%
Q3 - 3:30	MEM	MISS Jones Free Throw 1 of 2	60 14.4%	61 85.6%
Q3 - 3:47	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	60 13.7%	61 86.3%
Q3 - 3:48	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	60 16.1%	61 83.9%
Q3 - 3:48	ATL	MISS Childress Layup	60 14.4%	61 85.6%
Q3 - 3:50	ATL	MISS Delk 5' Jump Shot	60 14.4%	61 85.6%
Q3 - 4:04	MEM	Miller Traveling Turnover (P2.T7)	60 15.6%	61 84.4%
Q3 - 4:17	ATL	Delk Foul Turnover (P3.T10)	60 13.2%	61 86.8%
Q3 - 4:34	MEM	Williams 16' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	60 15.7%	61 84.3%
Q3 - 4:40	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	60 17.8%	59 82.2%
Q3 - 4:43	ATL	MISS Delk 20' Jump Shot	60 18.7%	59 81.3%
Q3 - 4:49	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	60 20.9%	59 79.1%
Q3 - 4:52	MEM	MISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot	60 19.9%	59 80.1%
Q3 - 5:04	MEM	Jump Ball Battier vs. Ekezie: Tip to	60 17.6%	59 82.4%
Q3 - 5:20	ATL	Ekezie REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	60 20.4%	59 79.6%
Q3 - 5:22	MEM	MISS Wright 11' Jump Shot	60 19.5%	59 80.5%
Q3 - 5:38	ATL	Walker Free Throw 1 of 1 (12 PTS)	60 17.6%	59 82.4%
Q3 - 5:38	ATL	Walker Layup (11 PTS)	59 15.3%	59 84.7%
Q3 - 5:38	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:4 Def:4)	57 13.4%	59 86.6%
Q3 - 5:39	ATL	Wright BLOCK (3 BLK)	57 12.0%	59 88.0%
Q3 - 5:51	MEM	Miller Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	57 13.4%	59 86.6%
Q3 - 6:05	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	57 11.3%	59 88.7%
Q3 - 6:08	ATL	Ekezie REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	57 13.1%	59 86.9%
Q3 - 6:08	ATL	MISS Ekezie Tip Shot	57 11.8%	59 88.2%
Q3 - 6:09	ATL	MISS Lue Running Layup	57 11.8%	59 88.2%
Q3 - 6:16	ATL	Delk REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	57 13.2%	59 86.8%
Q3 - 6:18	MEM	MISS Wright 11' Jump Shot	57 12.6%	59 87.4%
Q3 - 6:36	ATL	Lue Free Throw 1 of 1 (15 PTS)	57 11.3%	59 88.7%
Q3 - 6:36	ATL	Lue Driving Layup (14 PTS)	56 9.8%	59 90.2%
Q3 - 6:39	ATL	Ekezie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 8.6%	59 91.4%
Q3 - 6:42	MEM	MISS Swift Layup	54 8.2%	59 91.8%
Q3 - 7:02	ATL	Walker 18' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Delk 3 AST)	54 7.4%	59 92.6%
Q3 - 7:22	MEM	Battier 24' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Miller 4 AST)	52 6.5%	59 93.5%
Q3 - 7:44	ATL	Lue 10' Jump Shot (12 PTS)	52 8.5%	56 91.5%
Q3 - 8:11	MEM	Miller Dunk (14 PTS) (Williams 7 AST)	50 7.5%	56 92.5%
Q3 - 8:13	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	50 8.5%	54 91.5%
Q3 - 8:14	ATL	MISS Smith Alley Oop Layup	50 8.9%	54 91.1%
Q3 - 8:32	MEM	Tsakalidis Layup (4 PTS)	50 9.9%	54 90.1%
Q3 - 8:34	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	50 11.2%	52 88.8%
Q3 - 8:37	MEM	MISS Battier Driving Layup	50 12.4%	52 87.6%
Q3 - 8:48	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	50 11.2%	52 88.8%
Q3 - 8:50	MEM	MISS Swift 11' Jump Bank Shot	50 12.4%	52 87.6%
Q3 - 9:10	ATL	Hawks Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	50 10.9%	52 89.1%
Q3 - 9:10	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	50 12.4%	52 87.6%
Q3 - 9:12	ATL	MISS Lue Running Layup	50 11.3%	52 88.7%
Q3 - 9:25	MEM	Williams Free Throw Technical (12 PTS)	50 12.4%	52 87.6%
Q3 - 9:25	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	50 14.1%	51 85.9%
Q3 - 9:28	ATL	MISS Walker Layup	50 12.9%	51 87.1%
Q3 - 9:34	ATL	Ekezie REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	50 14.1%	51 85.9%
Q3 - 9:35	MEM	MISS Miller 26' 3PT Jump Shot	50 13.6%	51 86.4%
Q3 - 9:44	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	50 12.4%	51 87.6%
Q3 - 9:47	ATL	MISS Harrington 24' 3PT Jump Shot	50 12.9%	51 87.1%
Q3 - 10:08	ATL	Hawks Rebound	50 13.7%	51 86.3%
Q3 - 10:10	MEM	MISS Williams 26' 3PT Jump Shot	50 13.1%	51 86.9%
Q3 - 10:23	MEM	Williams Free Throw Technical (11 PTS)	50 11.9%	51 88.1%
Q3 - 10:39	ATL	Lue 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS)	50 13.5%	50 86.5%
Q3 - 10:53	ATL	Lue Free Throw Technical (7 PTS)	47 10.7%	50 89.3%
Q3 - 11:11	MEM	Swift 4' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	46 9.1%	50 90.9%
Q3 - 11:14	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	46 10.2%	48 89.8%
Q3 - 11:16	MEM	MISS Williams 25' 3PT Jump Shot	46 11.2%	48 88.8%
Q3 - 11:23	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	46 10.2%	48 89.8%
Q3 - 11:25	ATL	MISS Harrington 17' Jump Shot	46 10.6%	48 89.4%
Q3 - 11:42	MEM	Williams 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	46 11.6%	48 88.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM		46 13.1%	46 86.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	46 13.1%	46 86.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MEM	MISS Battier 37' 3PT Jump Shot	46 14.3%	46 85.7%
Q2 - 0:02.0	ATL	Smith Slam Dunk (10 PTS) (Delk 2 AST)	46 13.3%	46 86.7%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	44 11.4%	46 88.6%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MEM	Miller Layup (12 PTS)	44 11.4%	46 88.6%
Q2 - 0:25.0	MEM	MISS Miller Layup	44 14.0%	44 86.0%
Q2 - 0:29.0	ATL	Humphrey STEAL (1 STL)	44 13.3%	44 86.7%
Q2 - 0:43.0	MEM	Miller Driving Layup (10 PTS) (Williams 6 AST)	44 14.4%	44 85.6%
Q2 - 1:00	ATL	Harrington 15' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS)	44 16.6%	42 83.4%
Q2 - 1:24	MEM	Swift Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	42 14.2%	42 85.8%
Q2 - 1:36	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:3 Def:0)	42 13.4%	42 86.6%
Q2 - 1:37	MEM	MISS Miller Dunk	42 14.0%	42 86.0%
Q2 - 1:41	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	42 13.4%	42 86.6%
Q2 - 1:42	ATL	MISS Diaw 9' Jump Shot	42 13.7%	42 86.3%
Q2 - 2:07	MEM	Williams Driving Layup (8 PTS)	42 14.4%	42 85.6%
Q2 - 2:11	MEM	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	42 16.1%	40 83.9%
Q2 - 2:13	ATL	MISS Walker 25' 3PT Jump Shot	42 16.6%	40 83.4%
Q2 - 2:37	MEM	Swift Dunk (2 PTS) (Williams 5 AST)	42 17.7%	40 82.3%
Q2 - 2:43	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	42 19.8%	38 80.2%
Q2 - 2:51	MEM	MISS Miller Layup	42 21.1%	38 78.9%
Q2 - 3:01	MEM	Humphrey REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	42 18.8%	38 81.2%
Q2 - 3:04	MEM	MISS Swift Layup	42 20.2%	38 79.8%
Q2 - 3:22	ATL	Walker Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	42 18.8%	38 81.2%
Q2 - 3:35	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	42 21.0%	38 79.0%
Q2 - 3:37	MEM	MISS Humphrey Reverse Layup	42 20.3%	38 79.7%
Q2 - 3:45	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	42 18.9%	38 81.1%
Q2 - 3:47	ATL	MISS Ivey 15' Jump Shot	42 19.5%	38 80.5%
Q2 - 3:55	MEM	Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T4)	42 21.0%	38 79.0%
Q2 - 4:07	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	42 18.2%	38 81.8%
Q2 - 4:10	MEM	MISS Miller Layup	42 19.4%	38 80.6%
Q2 - 4:30	ATL	Delk 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Walker 3 AST)	42 18.2%	38 81.8%
Q2 - 4:50	MEM	Miller Driving Layup (8 PTS)	39 15.0%	38 85.0%
Q2 - 5:13	ATL	Walker Layup (7 PTS)	39 16.1%	36 83.9%
Q2 - 5:18	MEM	Williams Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T3)	37 14.8%	36 85.2%
Q2 - 5:39	ATL	Diaw Dunk (2 PTS) (Harrington 3 AST)	37 13.3%	36 86.7%
Q2 - 5:59	MEM	Battier 26' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Miller 3 AST)	35 12.1%	36 87.9%
Q2 - 6:22	ATL	Smith 22' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Harrington 2 AST)	35 14.3%	33 85.7%
Q2 - 6:42	MEM	Cardinal 15' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Swift 1 AST)	33 13.3%	33 86.7%
Q2 - 6:48	MEM	GRIZZLIES Rebound	33 14.3%	31 85.7%
Q2 - 6:48	MEM	MISS Watson 15' Jump Shot	33 15.5%	31 84.5%
Q2 - 7:13	ATL	Smith Slam Dunk (6 PTS) (Harrington 1 AST)	33 14.2%	31 85.8%
Q2 - 7:17	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	31 13.1%	31 86.9%
Q2 - 7:19	MEM	MISS Swift 7' Jump Shot	31 12.7%	31 87.3%
Q2 - 7:36	ATL	Smith 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)	31 11.8%	31 88.2%
Q2 - 7:54	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	29 10.9%	31 89.1%
Q2 - 7:57	MEM	MISS Miller 25' 3PT Jump Shot	29 10.5%	31 89.5%
Q2 - 8:27	ATL	Delk 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Walker 2 AST)	29 9.8%	31 90.2%
Q2 - 8:33	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 8.2%	31 91.8%
Q2 - 8:36	MEM	MISS Wells 15' Jump Shot	26 7.9%	31 92.1%
Q2 - 8:54	ATL	Smith 13' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS)	26 7.4%	31 92.6%
Q2 - 9:01	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	24 6.7%	31 93.3%
Q2 - 9:03	MEM	MISS Watson 17' Jump Shot	24 6.5%	31 93.5%
Q2 - 9:21	MEM	Jump Ball Wright vs. Harrington: Tip to Jones	24 6.1%	31 93.9%
Q2 - 9:21	ATL	Wright BLOCK (2 BLK)	24 6.3%	31 93.7%
Q2 - 9:28	ATL	Delk REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	24 6.7%	31 93.3%
Q2 - 9:30	MEM	MISS Wright 11' Jump Shot	24 6.5%	31 93.5%
Q2 - 9:51	ATL	Harrington Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	24 6.1%	31 93.9%
Q2 - 9:51	ATL	MISS Harrington Free Throw 1 of 2	23 5.9%	31 94.1%
Q2 - 10:09	MEM	Cardinal Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Watson 4 AST)	23 6.3%	31 93.7%
Q2 - 10:21	ATL	MISS Walker Free Throw 1 of 1	23 6.9%	29 93.1%
Q2 - 10:21	ATL	Walker Layup (5 PTS)	23 6.8%	29 93.2%
Q2 - 10:22	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	21 6.2%	29 93.8%
Q2 - 10:25	ATL	MISS Walker 5' Jump Shot	21 5.8%	29 94.2%
Q2 - 10:48	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	21 6.2%	29 93.8%
Q2 - 10:49	MEM	MISS Wells 17' Jump Shot	21 6.0%	29 94.0%
Q2 - 11:03	ATL	Harrington Layup (7 PTS) (Delk 1 AST)	21 5.6%	29 94.4%
Q2 - 11:10	ATL	Childress REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 5.1%	29 94.9%
Q2 - 11:12	MEM	MISS Wells Layup	19 4.9%	29 95.1%
Q2 - 11:18	MEM	Cardinal REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 4.6%	29 95.4%
Q2 - 11:19	ATL	MISS Harrington Layup	19 4.8%	29 95.2%
Q2 - 11:49	MEM	Watson Driving Layup (2 PTS)	19 5.1%	29 94.9%
Q1 - 0:00.0	ATL		19 5.6%	27 94.4%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MEM	Wright 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Watson 3 AST)	19 6.1%	27 93.9%
Q1 - 0:24.0	ATL	Delk Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	19 6.8%	25 93.2%
Q1 - 0:24.0	ATL	Delk Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	18 6.7%	25 93.3%
Q1 - 0:32.0	ATL	Harrington REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	17 6.1%	25 93.9%
Q1 - 0:35.0	MEM	MISS Wells Driving Layup	17 5.9%	25 94.1%
Q1 - 0:44.0	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	17 5.7%	25 94.3%
Q1 - 0:46.0	ATL	MISS Childress 18' Jump Shot	17 5.8%	25 94.2%
Q1 - 1:06	ATL	Willis REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	17 6.1%	25 93.9%
Q1 - 1:09	ATL	MISS Walker 25' 3PT Jump Shot	17 5.8%	25 94.2%
Q1 - 1:23	MEM	Wells 4' Turnaround Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Watson 2 AST)	17 6.1%	25 93.9%
Q1 - 1:28	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	17 6.8%	23 93.2%
Q1 - 1:30	ATL	MISS Ivey 19' Jump Shot	17 6.9%	23 93.1%
Q1 - 1:48	MEM	Wright Layup (2 PTS) (Watson 1 AST)	17 7.3%	23 92.7%
Q1 - 1:52	ATL	Watson STEAL (1 STL)	17 8.1%	21 91.9%
Q1 - 2:10	MEM	Battier 10' Running Jump Shot (7 PTS)	17 8.7%	21 91.3%
Q1 - 2:47	ATL	Delk 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Childress 1 AST)	17 9.5%	19 90.5%
Q1 - 2:53	ATL	Willis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 8.0%	19 92.0%
Q1 - 2:55	MEM	MISS Miller 22' Jump Shot	14 7.8%	19 92.2%
Q1 - 3:15	ATL	Walker 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Ivey 1 AST)	14 7.3%	19 92.7%
Q1 - 3:26	ATL	Hawks Rebound	11 6.2%	19 93.8%
Q1 - 3:28	ATL	Wright BLOCK (1 BLK)	11 5.8%	19 94.2%
Q1 - 3:34	MEM	Miller 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Williams 4 AST)	11 6.2%	19 93.8%
Q1 - 3:48	MEM	Wright REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	11 6.7%	17 93.3%
Q1 - 3:50	MEM	MISS Miller 27' 3PT Jump Shot	11 7.2%	17 92.8%
Q1 - 3:58	ATL	Wright STEAL (1 STL)	11 6.7%	17 93.3%
Q1 - 4:29	MEM	Battier Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	11 7.3%	17 92.7%
Q1 - 4:29	MEM	MISS Battier Free Throw 1 of 2	11 7.4%	16 92.6%
Q1 - 4:29	MEM	Williams REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	11 7.1%	16 92.9%
Q1 - 4:31	MEM	MISS Williams Layup	11 7.6%	16 92.4%
Q1 - 4:42	ATL	Hawks Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	11 7.1%	16 92.9%
Q1 - 4:42	ATL	Hawks Rebound	11 7.9%	16 92.1%
Q1 - 4:42	ATL	MISS Childress 20' Jump Shot	11 7.4%	16 92.6%
Q1 - 5:10	MEM	Williams Driving Layup (6 PTS)	11 7.7%	16 92.3%
Q1 - 5:27	ATL	Lue 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Walker 1 AST)	11 8.3%	14 91.7%
Q1 - 5:44	MEM	Battier Dunk (4 PTS) (Tsakalidis 1 AST)	9 7.7%	14 92.3%
Q1 - 5:55	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	9 8.3%	12 91.7%
Q1 - 5:57	ATL	MISS Harrington 24' 3PT Jump Shot	9 8.5%	12 91.5%
Q1 - 6:16	MEM	Miller Layup (4 PTS) (Williams 3 AST)	9 8.9%	12 91.1%
Q1 - 6:30	ATL	Lue 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	9 9.6%	10 90.4%
Q1 - 6:39	MEM	Williams Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T2)	7 8.9%	10 91.1%
Q1 - 6:49	ATL	Lue 16' Fadeaway Jumper (2 PTS)	7 8.3%	10 91.7%
Q1 - 7:10	MEM	Tsakalidis Dunk (2 PTS) (Williams 2 AST)	5 7.7%	10 92.3%
Q1 - 7:16	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	5 8.2%	8 91.8%
Q1 - 7:19	ATL	MISS Walker 3PT Jump Shot	5 8.4%	8 91.6%
Q1 - 7:27	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	5 8.8%	8 91.2%
Q1 - 7:30	MEM	MISS Swift 10' Jump Shot	5 8.6%	8 91.4%
Q1 - 7:48	ATL	Harrington 24' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Lue 1 AST)	5 8.2%	8 91.8%
Q1 - 8:04	MEM	Williams Layup (4 PTS) (Miller 2 AST)	2 7.0%	8 93.0%
Q1 - 8:17	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 7.5%	6 92.5%
Q1 - 8:19	ATL	Walker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	2 8.1%	6 91.9%
Q1 - 8:19	ATL	MISS Walker Tip Shot	2 7.6%	6 92.4%
Q1 - 8:20	ATL	MISS Lue Layup	2 7.6%	6 92.4%
Q1 - 8:26	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	2 8.1%	6 91.9%
Q1 - 8:28	MEM	MISS Swift 20' Jump Shot	2 7.9%	6 92.1%
Q1 - 9:00	ATL	Harrington Dunk (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	2 7.5%	6 92.5%
Q1 - 9:04	ATL	Lue REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 7.0%	6 93.0%
Q1 - 9:06	MEM	MISS Miller 20' Jump Shot	0 6.8%	6 93.2%
Q1 - 9:19	MEM	Battier REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 6.4%	6 93.6%
Q1 - 9:20	ATL	MISS Harrington 14' Jump Shot	0 6.5%	6 93.5%
Q1 - 9:47	MEM	Williams Layup (2 PTS)	0 7.0%	6 93.0%
Q1 - 9:54	ATL	Miller STEAL (1 STL)	0 7.3%	4 92.7%
Q1 - 10:11	MEM	Battier Reverse Layup (2 PTS) (Miller 1 AST)	0 7.9%	4 92.1%
Q1 - 10:27	MEM	Swift REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 8.4%	2 91.6%
Q1 - 10:30	MEM	MISS Tsakalidis 19' Jump Shot	0 8.9%	2 91.1%
Q1 - 10:39	MEM	Tsakalidis REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 8.4%	2 91.6%
Q1 - 10:42	ATL	MISS Smith 22' Jump Shot	0 8.6%	2 91.4%
Q1 - 10:56	MEM	Tsakalidis Foul Turnover (P1.T1)	0 9.1%	2 90.9%
Q1 - 11:01	ATL	Swift STEAL (1 STL)	0 8.5%	2 91.5%
Q1 - 11:23	MEM	Miller 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Williams 1 AST)	0 9.0%	2 91.0%
Q1 - 11:37	MEM	Miller REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 9.7%	0 90.3%
Q1 - 11:38	ATL	MISS Ekezie Running Layup	0 9.9%	0 90.1%
Q1 - 12:00	MEM	Jump Ball Swift vs. Smith: Tip to Ekezie	0 10.3%	0 89.7%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.6%

MEM

0.97 48.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

42%

MEM

59%

Midrange

ATL

39%

MEM

39%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

10.5

50%

75%

MEM

6.0

25%

38%

Free Throws

ATL

74%

MEM

50%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Harrington	18	60%	9.0 / 15
A. Walker	17	39%	8.5 / 22
T. Lue	17	71%	8.5 / 12
T. Delk	15	75%	7.5 / 10
J. Smith	10	71%	5.0 / 7
J. Childress	4	22%	2.0 / 9
B. Diaw	2	25%	1.0 / 4
O. Ekezie	0	-	0.0 / 3
R. Ivey	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Williams	23	77%	11.5 / 15
M. Miller	21	50%	10.5 / 21
S. Battier	15	75%	7.5 / 10
B. Cardinal	6	75%	3.0 / 4
S. Swift	4	25%	2.0 / 8
J. Tsakalidis	4	67%	2.0 / 3
L. Wright	4	29%	2.0 / 7
D. Jones	3	38%	1.5 / 4
E. Watson	2	25%	1.0 / 4
B. Wells	2	14%	1.0 / 7
R. Humphrey	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+16

-13

MEM

+18

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

0.93 46.6%

MEM

0.97 48.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	98.6 103.1	ATL 102.5 MEM 106.3 +3.9
Pace	93.3 90.6	ATL 81.6 +3.1 MEM 78.5
Avg. Poss. Time	15.6 16.1	ATL 17.7 +0.7 MEM 18.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	46.4% 48.9%	ATL 47.3% MEM 48.8% +1.5%
TO %	16.3% 15.4%	ATL 15.6% MEM 13.2% +2.4%
ORB %	30.8% 27.2%	ATL 30.0% MEM 40.0% +10.0%
FTrt	29.9 32.3	ATL 26.0 +11.0 MEM 15.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	54.9% 61.2%	ATL 54.8% +0.7% MEM 54.1%
STL %	8.1% 9.4%	ATL 6.2% MEM 10.1% +3.9%
BLK %	6.7% 9.5%	ATL 4.7% MEM 6.8% +2.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	47.8% 50.8%	ATL 46.6% MEM 48.3% +1.7%
Rim FG%	55.4% 55.9%	ATL 41.9% MEM 58.5% +16.6%
Mid FG%	37.3% 37.7%	ATL 39.3% +0.2% MEM 39.1%
3P %	31.2% 35.7%	ATL 50.0% +25.0% MEM 25.0%
FT %	71.1% 75.4%	ATL 73.7% +23.7% MEM 50.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	42.4% 41.0%	ATL 42.5% MEM 51.2% +8.8%
Mid Att. %	43.0% 35.4%	ATL 38.4% MEM 28.7% +9.6%
3P Att. %	14.6% 23.7%	ATL 19.2% MEM 20.0% +0.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.29 and 2.29.

Game Totals	ATL	MEM
Possessions	81	79
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	83	84
Rebounds	36	44
Assists	17	20
Steals	5	8
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (2)	12 (1)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	16 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	24 (3)	28 (1)
Field Goals	31-73	37-80
At-the-Rim FG	13-31	24-41
Midrange FG	11-28	9-23
2-Point FG	24-59	33-64
3-Point FG	7-14	4-16
Free Throws	14-19	6-12
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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36 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Antoine Walker F · 6'9" 245 · 28	43.8	17	39%	8	3	1	1	2	4	4	4	1-4	25%	5-13	38%	2-6	33%
Al Harrington F · 6'9" 245 · 25	43.3	18	60%	8	4	1	0	3	4	2	6	7-8	88%	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 28	29.3	17	71%	6	1	1	0	1	2	1	5	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	1-1	100%
Josh Smith G · 6'9" 225 · 19	20.6	10	71%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Obinna Ekezie C · 6'9" 270 · 29	16.2	0	0%	5	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Tony Delk G · 6'2" 189 · 31	33.6	15	75%	2	4	1	0	5	1	0	2	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	3-3	100%
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 22	25.7	4	22%	5	2	0	2	0	3	3	2	2-2	100%	1-7	14%	0-1	0%
Boris Diaw C-F · 6'8" 250 · 23	13.2	2	25%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Kevin Willis C-F · 7'0" 245 · 42	7.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 23	6.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Predrag Drobnjak C · 6'11" 270 · 29
Jason Collier C · 7'0" 260 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	83	47%	36	17	5	3	13	0	12	24	14-19	74%	24-59	41%	7-14	50%

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36 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Antoine Walker F · 6'9" 245 · 28	43.8	17	39%	8	3	1	1	2	4	4	4	1-4	25%	5-13	38%	2-6	33%
Al Harrington F · 6'9" 245 · 25	43.3	18	60%	8	4	1	0	3	4	2	6	7-8	88%	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Tyronn Lue G · 6'0" 175 · 28	29.3	17	71%	6	1	1	0	1	2	1	5	2-2	100%	6-10	60%	1-1	100%
Josh Smith G · 6'9" 225 · 19	20.6	10	71%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-0	-
Obinna Ekezie C · 6'9" 270 · 29	16.2	0	0%	5	0	0	0	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Tony Delk G · 6'2" 189 · 31	33.6	15	75%	2	4	1	0	5	1	0	2	2-3	67%	2-5	40%	3-3	100%
Josh Childress F-G · 6'8" 210 · 22	25.7	4	22%	5	2	0	2	0	3	3	2	2-2	100%	1-7	14%	0-1	0%
Boris Diaw C-F · 6'8" 250 · 23	13.2	2	25%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Kevin Willis C-F · 7'0" 245 · 42	7.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Royal Ivey G · 6'4" 200 · 23	6.5	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Predrag Drobnjak C · 6'11" 270 · 29
Jason Collier C · 7'0" 260 · 27
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	83	47%	36	17	5	3	13	0	12	24	14-19	74%	24-59	41%	7-14	50%

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10 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Shane Battier F · 6'8" 220 · 26	40.2	15	75%	7	0	0	0	0	3	2	5	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	2-3	67%
Mike Miller G · 6'8" 218 · 25	38.3	21	50%	5	5	1	0	4	2	1	4	0-0	-	9-15	60%	1-6	17%
Jason Williams G · 6'1" 180 · 29	34.1	23	77%	2	8	1	0	4	1	1	1	4-4	100%	8-9	89%	1-5	20%
Stromile Swift F · 6'10" 220 · 25	28.9	4	25%	6	2	1	0	1	1	3	3	0-0	-	2-8	25%	0-0	-
Jake Tsakalidis C · 7'2" 290 · 26	11.9	4	67%	4	1	0	0	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Brian Cardinal F · 6'8" 240 · 28	17.2	6	75%	2	0	1	0	1	6	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Lorenzen Wright F-C · 6'11" 255 · 29	16.2	4	29%	9	0	1	4	0	1	3	6	0-2	0%	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Ryan Humphrey F · 6'8" 235 · 26	16.1	0	0%	6	0	2	0	0	1	5	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Earl Watson G · 6'1" 199 · 26	13.9	2	25%	1	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Dahntay Jones G-F · 6'6" 225 · 24	13.4	3	38%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Bonzi Wells G-F · 6'5" 210 · 28	9.7	2	14%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-2	0%	1-6	17%	0-0	-
Antonio Burks G · 6'0" 195 · 25
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	84	48%	44	20	8	4	12	0	16	28	6-12	50%	33-64	52%	4-16	25%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE